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EUR/USD edged lower to 0.9863 last week, but formed a short term bottom there and rebounded. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 1.0174). Sustained break there will raise the chance of larger reversal, and target 1.0368 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.9863 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0368 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is extending. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.0635 support turned resistance holds.

USD/JPY's up trend continued last week and hit as high as 144.98. But as a temporary top was formed, initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 139.37 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 144.98 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, rise from 101.18 is seen as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rally is expected to 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is slightly above 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 124.31) holds.

GBP/USD edged lower to 1.1404 last week but recovered after drawing support from 1.1409 low. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for further rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 1.1942). On the downside, decisive break of 1.1409 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is probably resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Sustained break of 1.1409 will target 61.8% projection of 1.7190 (2014 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) from 1.4248 (2021 high) at 1.0675. This will remain the favored case for now as long as 1.2292 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007) high is still in progress. Firm break of 1.1409 will target 61.8% projection of 1.7190 (2014 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) from 1.4248 (2021 high) at 1.0675.

USD/CHF reversed after edging higher to 0.9868 last week. The development suggests that corrective pattern from 1.0063 is extending with another falling leg. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.9369 support. On the upside above 0.9707 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 1.0063 will target 100% projection of 0.9149 to 1.0063 from 0.9369 at 1.0283, and then 1.0342 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9369 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, outlook is mixed with deeper than expected fall from 1.0063, but some support is seen from 55 week EMA (now at 0.9433). Overall, though, USD/CHF is seen as in sideway pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). Range trading should continue until further development.

AUD/USD dipped to 0.6698 last week but recovered ahead of 0.6680 low. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 0.6919). Sustained break there will target 0.7135 resistance next. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6680 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it's a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

USD/CAD retreated deeply last week but holds above 1.2971 minor support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3222 will resume larger up trend from 1.2005. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, however, break of 1.2971 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.3222 with another falling leg, back towards 1.2726 support instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.

GBP/JPY rose to 166.29 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 166.31 resistance will argue that larger up trend might be ready to resume. Retest of 168.67 should be seen next. On the downside, however, break of 164.16 will turn bias to the downside, to extend the corrective pattern from 168.67 with another fall.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 could be the third leg the the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Further rise will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 150.75) holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. will pave the way to 195.86 (2015 high).

EUR/JPY rose further to as high as 144.71 last week, and break of 144.26 indicates resumption of larger up trend. But as a temporary top was formed, initial bias is turned neutral for consolidation this week. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 138.68 support. On the upside, break of 144.71 will target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 144.26 from 133.38 at 145.67 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Further rally is in favor as long as 133.38 support holds. Next target is 149.76 (2015 high). However, sustained break of 133.38 will be a sign of medium term bearish reversal and turn focus to 124.37 support for confirmation.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) is seen as in the third leg. Further rally would be seen to 149.76 resistance (2014 high) and above. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 129.46) holds.

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8710 last week, but retreated ahead of 0.8720 resistance. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8720 high will carry larger bullish implications. Next target is 100% projection of 0.8201 to 0.8720 from 0.8338 at 0.8857. However, break of 0.8565 will indicate rejection by 0.8270, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.8515) and below.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Sustained break there will argue that rise from 0.8201 is a medium term up trend, rather than a correction. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 0.9003. Rejection by 0.8697 again will maintain medium term bearishness, for extending the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high) at a later stage.

In the long term picture, the lack of medium term downside momentum suggests that fall from 0.9499 (2020 high) is merely a correction to rise from 0.6935 (2015 high). In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917 to bring rebound. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 0.8601) will indicate that the correction has completed and bring retest of 0.9499.