Sample Category Title

GBP/USD edged lower to 1.1404 last week but recovered after drawing support from 1.1409 low. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for further rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 1.1942). On the downside, decisive break of 1.1409 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) is probably resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Sustained break of 1.1409 will target 61.8% projection of 1.7190 (2014 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) from 1.4248 (2021 high) at 1.0675. This will remain the favored case for now as long as 1.2292 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007) high is still in progress. Firm break of 1.1409 will target 61.8% projection of 1.7190 (2014 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) from 1.4248 (2021 high) at 1.0675.

USD/CHF reversed after edging higher to 0.9868 last week. The development suggests that corrective pattern from 1.0063 is extending with another falling leg. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.9369 support. On the upside above 0.9707 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 1.0063 will target 100% projection of 0.9149 to 1.0063 from 0.9369 at 1.0283, and then 1.0342 (2016 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.9369 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, outlook is mixed with deeper than expected fall from 1.0063, but some support is seen from 55 week EMA (now at 0.9433). Overall, though, USD/CHF is seen as in sideway pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). Range trading should continue until further development.

AUD/USD dipped to 0.6698 last week but recovered ahead of 0.6680 low. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 0.6919). Sustained break there will target 0.7135 resistance next. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6680 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it's a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.

USD/CAD retreated deeply last week but holds above 1.2971 minor support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3222 will resume larger up trend from 1.2005. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, however, break of 1.2971 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.3222 with another falling leg, back towards 1.2726 support instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.

GBP/JPY rose to 166.29 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 166.31 resistance will argue that larger up trend might be ready to resume. Retest of 168.67 should be seen next. On the downside, however, break of 164.16 will turn bias to the downside, to extend the corrective pattern from 168.67 with another fall.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 could be the third leg the the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Further rise will remain in favor as long as 55 month EMA (now at 150.75) holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. will pave the way to 195.86 (2015 high).

EUR/JPY rose further to as high as 144.71 last week, and break of 144.26 indicates resumption of larger up trend. But as a temporary top was formed, initial bias is turned neutral for consolidation this week. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 138.68 support. On the upside, break of 144.71 will target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 144.26 from 133.38 at 145.67 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Further rally is in favor as long as 133.38 support holds. Next target is 149.76 (2015 high). However, sustained break of 133.38 will be a sign of medium term bearish reversal and turn focus to 124.37 support for confirmation.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) is seen as in the third leg. Further rally would be seen to 149.76 resistance (2014 high) and above. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 129.46) holds.

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8710 last week, but retreated ahead of 0.8720 resistance. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8720 high will carry larger bullish implications. Next target is 100% projection of 0.8201 to 0.8720 from 0.8338 at 0.8857. However, break of 0.8565 will indicate rejection by 0.8270, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.8515) and below.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Sustained break there will argue that rise from 0.8201 is a medium term up trend, rather than a correction. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 0.9003. Rejection by 0.8697 again will maintain medium term bearishness, for extending the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high) at a later stage.

In the long term picture, the lack of medium term downside momentum suggests that fall from 0.9499 (2020 high) is merely a correction to rise from 0.6935 (2015 high). In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917 to bring rebound. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 0.8601) will indicate that the correction has completed and bring retest of 0.9499.

EUR/AUD's rebound from 1.4281 short term bottom extended further to 1.4880 last week. But a temporary top was formed with subsequent retreat. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.4880 will resume the rebound towards 1.5396 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.4564 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.4281 low.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.9799 is still in progress. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Deeper fall should be seen to 1.3624 support. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 1.1602 (2012 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 month EMA (now at 1.5588) holds.

EUR/CHF's decline last week suggests that corrective rebound from 0.9550 has completed at 0.9864 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.9550 first. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0512 to 0.9550 from 0.9864 at 0.9269. On the upside, above 0.9780 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside, to extend the rebound from 0.9550 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0512 to 0.9550 at 0.9917.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9033. On the upside, break of 0.9970 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, capped below 55 month EMA, EUR/CHF is seen as extending the multi-decade down trend. There is no prospect of a bullish reversal until firm break of 1.0505 support (2020 low).

Euro ended the week broadly higher, with help from ECB's historical rate hike. Yet, it was outshone by Swiss Franc, which was the biggest winner after SNB reiterated the stance of welcoming Franc's appreciation. Canadian Dollar followed as the third, also after another massive hike by BoC.

On the other hand, Yen was the worst performer. There was some support from jawboning of Japanese officials. But there is little chance of a rebound considering policy divergence with other major central banks. New Zealand Dollar and US Dollar were the next. The greenback has started reversing some recent gains and risk sentiment improved.

Euro's underlying strength in doubt despite ECB's historical hike

Euro ended broadly higher after ECB delivered a historical 75bps rate hike. EUR/USD reclaimed parity after forming a short term bottom at 0.9863. But there is still some doubt about the underlying strength of Euro.

Firstly, Euro clearly underperformed the Swiss Franc. EUR/CHF's decline last week suggests rejection by 55 day EMA. Rebound from 0.9550 was kept below 38.2% retracement of 1.0512 to 0.9550 at 0.9917. Both keep outlook in EUR/CHF bearish for another fall through 0.9550 at a later stage, to resume larger down trend.

Secondly, while EUR/GBP's rally looked promising, it's still capped below 0.8720 resistance, and struggled to break through medium term fibonacci resistance at 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. A break below 0.8565 support will indicate another rejection by 0.8697, and bring another fall as the third leg of the pattern from 0.8720.

Thirdly, EUR/CAD also stayed range bound last week, struggling to break through 55 day EMA, and capped below 1.3271 near term resistance. The development keeps outlook bearish for another fall through 1.2867 at some point to resume the larger down trend.

Swiss Franc strong as SNB said appreciation helps

Comparing to Euro, Swiss Franc's strength is so far more apparent. Markets are expecting another 50bps rate hike by SNB on September 22, with possibility of a 75bps move. More importantly, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan reiterated last week that "at the moment it is rather so that given the inflationary pressure an appreciation of the franc tends to help rather than hurt." The willingness for Franc to rise is a key factor helping it rise.

GBP/CHF's down trend continued last week and breached 2020 low at 1.1107. But unlike GBP/USD's reaction to 1.1409, there is no sign of a bounce yet. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.1244 minor resistance holds. Firm break of 1.1107 will pave the way to 200% projection of 1.3070 to 1.2134 from 1.2598 at 1.0726.

CHF/JPY's up trend also resumed last week and surged to as high as 148.45. While Yen recovered notably on Friday, CHF/JPY's retreat was so far very shallow. Consolidations should be relatively brief as long as 146.90 minor support holds. Break of 148.79 will target 100% projection of 127.48 to 143.73 from 137.13 at 153.38, which is around the spike hike made in 2015 after SNB suddenly removed the cap on Franc's exchange rate.

Dollar reversed gains as risk market well digested Fed's next hike

As for Dollar, it reversed some of recent gains on improving risk sentiment. Investors seemed to have well digested another 75bps hike by Fed on September 21. Fed fund futures are now pricing in 91% chance of that. Yet, US stocks staged a strong rebound, ending a three-week losing streak.

S&P 500's close above 55 day EMA, and 4000 handle, was a positive sign. Stronger rebound is mildly in favor back towards 4325.28 resistance. But it should be noted that price actions from 3636.87 are probably forming the second leg of the corrective pattern from 4818.62 (the first leg was the three-wave move from 4818.62 to 3636.87). The second leg of a corrective pattern tends to be rather unpredictable, in terms of size, duration, and pattern. So, it won't be surprising to see sentiment flip-flops again.

Dollar index should have formed a short term top at 110.78. Near term risk is mildly on the downside, for deeper pull back towards 55 day EMA (now at 107.12). But there is no clear sign of reversal as long as it stays well inside the medium term rising channel. Another rally through 110.78 is still expected at a later stage.

But considering the possibility of bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of the channel support (now at around 106), could indicate the start of a medium term correction back to 104.63 support and below. If that happens, it should correspond to a break of 1.0368 resistance in EUR/USD.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD dipped to 0.6698 last week but recovered ahead of 0.6680 low. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 0.6919). Sustained break there will target 0.7135 resistance next. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6680 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) is seen more as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Or it could also be a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7135 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

In the long term picture, rejection by 0.8135 resistance suggests that the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is not ready to reverse. Yet, the structure of the fall from 0.8006 still argues that it's a corrective move. Hence, break of 0.5506 low is not envisaged for now. The long term outlook stays neutral first, and will be reassessed later after the fall from 0.8006 completes.