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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1532; (P) 1.1562; (R1) 1.1593; More…

Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. Further fall would remain in favor as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.1623) holds. Below 1.1467 will resumed the decline from 1.1917 to 1.1390 support next. However, sustained trading above 55 D EMA will argue that fall from 1.1971 has completed as a correction only, and bring further rise to 1.1727 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1306) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3112; (P) 1.3144; (R1) 1.3192; More...

GBP/USD is still extending consolidations above 1.3008 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3247 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.3008 will target 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3185) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2780) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8027; (P) 0.8056; (R1) 0.8080; More…

Outlook is unchanged in USD/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, decisive break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8007) will argue that the corrective bounce from 0.7828 has completed and bring retest of this low. On the upside, above 0.8123 will resume the rebound to 138.2% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7872 at 0.8213.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.97; (P) 153.28; (R1) 153.75; More...

USD/JPY rebounded notably today but stays below 154.47 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. Further rally is expected as long as 151.52 support holds. Above 154.47 will resume larger rise from 139.87 and target 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Break there will pave the way to 158.85 key structural resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 149.37 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Global risk appetite improved markedly today, with strong gains in Asia carrying over into European trading and U.S. futures pointing higher. Investors found renewed confidence amid signs of political progress in Washington, where the Senate approved the first stage of a bipartisan deal to end the monthslong government shutdown.

The agreement would fund federal operations through January 30 next year and could potentially reverse some of the permanent layoffs that occurred during the 35-day impasse. The development offered a welcome relief to markets reeling from last week’s tech-led selloff, noting that a resolution to the shutdown could restore data flow and remove a key source of uncertainty for investors.

If the Senate’s amended measure clears the House of Representatives and wins President Donald Trump’s signature, the deal would avert further disruptions to federal services and allow normal budget processes to resume. The prospect of restored government operations is also raising hopes that upcoming economic releases will help clarify the Fed’s policy outlook ahead of its December meeting.

The renewed optimism was clearly reflected in the currency markets, where high-beta and commodity-linked currencies led gains. Aussie outperformed, followed by Kiwi and Loonie, as investors re-engaged with risk-sensitive trades.

At the other end of the spectrum, Yen weakened further, extending losses from the Asian session. The currency was weighed by both improved global sentiment and fresh political pressure on the BoJ, after a senior economic adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged policymakers to postpone any rate hike until at least January. His comments reinforced the view that fiscal priorities remain dominant in Tokyo, keeping near-term BoJ tightening expectations subdued.

Swiss Franc also softened as investors rotated out of safe havens, while Dollar traded lower. Meanwhile, Euro and Sterling are trading in the middle.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.89%. DAX is up 1.78%. CAC is up 1.34%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.016 at 4.485. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.004 at 2.676. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.26%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.55%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.53%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.09%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.023 to 1.702.

Fed’s Daly: Policy must avoid trading one mistake for another

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the FOMC has appropriately reduced policy rates by a total of 50bps this year as part of a "prudent risk management approach", noting that the adjustments provide “needed insurance” for the labor market while keeping policy “modestly restrictive” to further curb inflation.

In an essay published today, Daly posed the central question now facing the Fed: Will more rate cuts be needed? She argued that while policymakers must remain alert to inflation risks—drawing lessons from the 1970s and the post-pandemic surge—they must also avoid overcorrecting and stifling growth.

“We don’t want to work so hard to not be the 1970s that we cut off the possibility of the 1990s,” she wrote, warning that an excessive focus on inflation history could trade one mistake for another.

Daly emphasized that getting policy right will require “an open mind” and careful evaluation of evidence on both sides of the debate.

Eurozone Sentix falls to -7.4, growth outlook darkens, debt fears persist

Eurozone investor sentiment deteriorated again in November, reinforcing concerns that the bloc’s economy remains mired in stagnation. Sentix Investor Confidence Index fell sharply to -7.4 from -5.4 in October, missing expectations of -3.9. Current Situation Index dropped to -17.5 from -16.0. Expectations slipped to 3.3 from 5.8.

Sentix said there was “little sign of an autumn upturn” and that the Eurozone “continues to languish, with no signs of momentum for the future.” The survey noted that the persistence of such gloomy assessments points to an ongoing process of contraction, with the path to 2026 seemingly “predetermined” as the economy remains unable to break free from its slump.

Still, one faint positive emerged from the report: inflation concerns eased notably. The Sentix inflation barometer rose 9 points to -11, suggesting investors see central banks acknowledging weak growth conditions and possibly adjusting policy accordingly. However, Sentix warned that ballooning government debt remains a structural problem, keeping the fiscal policy barometer deeply negative at -32 and limiting how far refinancing conditions can realistically fall.

BoJ summary show split narrows as members debate near term rate hike

The BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from October 29–30 meeting revealed a growing consensus among policymakers that conditions are nearly in place for a rate hike. Eight opinions either called for raising interest rates soon or outlined conditions under which borrowing costs should rise in the near term—marking the clearest sign yet that the BoJ is preparing for its next move.

Several members emphasized that while immediate action may not be necessary, the Bank “should not miss the timing to raise the policy interest rate.” Others noted that a hike would likely follow if global economic conditions remained stable and corporate wage-setting momentum was sustained. One view stated that “conditions for taking a further step toward normalizing the policy rate have almost been met,” but stressed the need to confirm that underlying inflation is firmly entrenched.

Still, some members urged caution. One participant argued that the BoJ should take “a little more time” to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs and Japan’s new fiscal direction before tightening policy further. The minutes reinforce market expectations that the Bank is leaning toward a rate increase either in December or early 2026, contingent on wage data and external stability.

Gold and Silver rebound ahead of 55 D EMAs, first leg of consolidations done.

Gold and Silver advanced sharply today, recovering from recent lows as traders interpreted both technical signals and fresh political developments in Washington as reasons to buy. The rally suggests the first corrective leg from October’s highs may be over, with both metals finding firm support at their moving averages.

The rebound gained a fundamental boost from news that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown could soon end. Reports indicated that centrist Senate Democrats agreed to back a short-term funding bill that would reopen parts of the government through January 30. The agreement, if passed, would restart the flow of federal data—potentially reinforcing market expectations for another Fed rate cut in December.

Renewed rate-cut bets lent support to metals already positioned near key technical floors. Investors also saw the reopening deal as a sign that policy paralysis in Washington may ease, removing one near-term drag on market confidence.

Technically, Gold has broken decisively above its 55 4H EMA, indicating that the pullback from 4,381.22 likely completed at 3,886.41, ahead of 55 D EMA. Decisive break above 4,161.35 resistance would confirm upside momentum toward 4,381.22. However, strong resistance is expected near that level, to bring another fall to extend the consolidation, before the longer-term uptrend resumes.

Silver’s structure shows a similar setup. Its decline from 54.44 seems to have ended at 45.20, ahead of 55 D EMA. Sustained trade above 49.42 resistance would target a retest of 54.44. As with Gold, resistance there should limit gains and set the stage for another short-term retreat—potentially toward 45.52—before the broader bullish trend resumes later.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.97; (P) 153.28; (R1) 153.75; More...

USD/JPY rebounded notably today but stays below 154.47 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. Further rally is expected as long as 151.52 support holds. Above 154.47 will resume larger rise from 139.87 and target 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Break there will pave the way to 158.85 key structural resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 149.37 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the FOMC has appropriately reduced policy rates by a total of 50bps this year as part of a "prudent risk management approach", noting that the adjustments provide “needed insurance” for the labor market while keeping policy “modestly restrictive” to further curb inflation.

In an essay published today, Daly posed the central question now facing the Fed: Will more rate cuts be needed? She argued that while policymakers must remain alert to inflation risks—drawing lessons from the 1970s and the post-pandemic surge—they must also avoid overcorrecting and stifling growth.

“We don’t want to work so hard to not be the 1970s that we cut off the possibility of the 1990s,” she wrote, warning that an excessive focus on inflation history could trade one mistake for another.

Daly emphasized that getting policy right will require “an open mind” and careful evaluation of evidence on both sides of the debate.

Full essay of Fed's Daly here.

Gold and Silver advanced sharply today, recovering from recent lows as traders interpreted both technical signals and fresh political developments in Washington as reasons to buy. The rally suggests the first corrective leg from October’s highs may be over, with both metals finding firm support at their moving averages.

The rebound gained a fundamental boost from news that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown could soon end. Reports indicated that centrist Senate Democrats agreed to back a short-term funding bill that would reopen parts of the government through January 30. The agreement, if passed, would restart the flow of federal data—potentially reinforcing market expectations for another Fed rate cut in December.

Renewed rate-cut bets lent support to metals already positioned near key technical floors. Investors also saw the reopening deal as a sign that policy paralysis in Washington may ease, removing one near-term drag on market confidence.

Technically, Gold has broken decisively above its 55 4H EMA, indicating that the pullback from 4,381.22 likely completed at 3,886.41, ahead of 55 D EMA. Decisive break above 4,161.35 resistance would confirm upside momentum toward 4,381.22. However, strong resistance is expected near that level, to bring another fall to extend the consolidation, before the longer-term uptrend resumes.

Silver’s structure shows a similar setup. Its decline from 54.44 seems to have ended at 45.20, ahead of 55 D EMA. Sustained trade above 49.42 resistance would target a retest of 54.44. As with Gold, resistance there should limit gains and set the stage for another short-term retreat—potentially toward 45.52—before the broader bullish trend resumes later.

• The US dollar is losing confidence again.
• The Fed doubts that interest rates will be lowered.
• The Bank of Japan intends to continue the cycle.
• The yen is testing the authorities’ resolve.

The US dollar is in a tug-of-war. On the one hand, the Supreme Court is likely to rule that Donald Trump’s tariffs are illegal. This will further undermine confidence in the greenback, as was the case in the first half of the year due to pressure from the White House on the Fed.

On the other hand, according to New York Fed President John Williams, the Fed’s verdict at the last FOMC meeting in 2025 will be the result of a balance of several forces. Inflation in the US is high and shows no signs of slowing down. However, the economy remains stable.

The futures market interpreted this rhetoric as ‘hawkish’ and lowered the chances of a federal funds rate cut in December to 63% from 95% two weeks earlier. At the same time, there is still significant room for further repricing. The EURUSD will likely fall if interest rates are not cut.

Nevertheless, the loss of confidence in the US dollar and the preservation of the euro’s main trump cards allow the main currency pair to look to the future with optimism. The eurozone economy is improving, and the ECB has likely brought its cycle of policy easing to a close. Divergences in GDP growth and monetary policy suggest that the EURUSD uptrend is sustainable.

Meanwhile, speculators have decided to test the Japanese government’s resolve. Despite several bearish signals for USDJPY, the pair has continued to rise. The minutes of the last BoJ meeting showed its readiness to raise the overnight rate in December. It was noted that the conditions for continuing the normalisation cycle had been met. If there are no shocks to the global economy and financial markets, the rate will be raised. Indeed, inflation and wages continue to show no signs of slowing down, despite the introduction of tariffs.

Hints of an overnight rate hike, coupled with falling US stock indices and a deterioration in global risk appetite, should have helped the yen. However, speculators are pushing USDJPY quotes up in the hope of currency intervention by the official Tokyo authorities. A quick reversal could enable traders to make a substantial amount of money.

Market Overview

The crypto market jumped 4.5% in the last 24 hours, following reports of progress in ending the US government shutdown and promises by the US president to distribute $2,000 checks to families, with the funds received from tariffs. The positive effect of this news has been amplified by the fact that a more than 20% pullback from the peak has fuelled greed. Among the top coins, Ethereum (+5.8%) and XRP (+8%) are growing steadily, outperforming Bitcoin, which is up 4.5%.

Bitcoin surpassed the $106K mark, breaking out of the $99K–$104K consolidation zone, where it spent most of last week. At the same time, the first cryptocurrency is trading below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Moreover, a death cross is forming there, as the first of these averages is about to fall below the latter.

The technical picture for Ethereum is more favourable, as the bulls did not allow the coin to consolidate below the 200-day MA and pushed it up on the latest positive news. From current levels near $3,600, the nearest target for buyers appears to be $4,000, which promises to be a significant indicator of market health.

News Background

Following the market crash on October 10-11, whales sold 32,500 BTC, while small investors actively bought on the dips. This is an alarming sign for Bitcoin, as historically, prices tend to follow the direction of whales, according to Santiment.

Bitcoin’s deleveraging phase is ‘largely complete’ after the sell-off. The first cryptocurrency could rise to $170,000 over the next 6-12 months, according to JPMorgan’s forecast.

The ‘sluggish dynamics’ of the crypto market are linked to the rebalancing of hodlers’ portfolios. This may have a negative impact in the short term, but is beneficial in the medium and long term, said Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said she was forced to revise her long-term forecast for Bitcoin for 2030 from $1.5 million to $1.2 million. She cited the rapid growth of stablecoins, which are displacing BTC among investors in emerging markets.

According to a survey by the Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA) and PwC, 55% of traditional hedge funds owned cryptocurrencies in 2025. Last year, the figure was 47%.

Ripple denied plans to hold an IPO. The company does not intend to go public in the near future, following the example of several participants in the cryptocurrency industry.

As the Dollar Index (DXY) chart shows, the index is currently trading below its 5 November high, which formed after a false bullish breakout (marked by an arrow) above the 1 August peak — a scenario previously outlined in the post “The Dollar Index Near a Key High.”

According to Trading Economics, trader sentiment at the start of the week is being shaped by expectations of comments from ECB and Federal Reserve officials regarding the outlook for monetary policy.

A statement has already come from Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who noted that financial conditions in the country are now close to a neutral rate — one that neither stimulates nor restrains economic growth. The Australian dollar strengthened following his remarks.

Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart

The previously drawn ascending channel remains relevant for the Dollar Index, with several important technical features:

→ The channel median has switched its role from support to resistance (as indicated by its colour change from blue to red).

→ The QL line, which divides the lower half of the channel into quarters, is currently acting as support for the DXY.

→ The index has fallen below the psychological level of 100 points.

It appears that the 3.7% rally in the Dollar Index since mid-September has attracted sellers, while late buyers may have been trapped near the top of the recent move.

Additional support may be found near 99.45, where a double-top pattern (A–B) previously formed. However, if this level is breached, the DXY could extend its decline towards the lower boundary of the channel.

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