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BoC policymaker Megan Greene pushed back against expectations for a December rate cut, saying this morning’s weaker labor data is not enough to change her stance.

Speaking at a conference in London, Greene—one of the five MPC members who voted to hold rates steady last week—argued that the labor market has likely moved past its sharpest adjustment phase.

She pointed to “higher-frequency data” showing early stabilization, adding that many companies still plan to lift wages substantially. Greene said it is “possible that the worst is behind us,” although she acknowledged that the latest 5.0% unemployment rate—the highest in four years—was “not great.”

Investor confidence in Germany softened slightly in November, signaling continued caution about Europe’s largest economy despite signs of broader regional improvement. German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index slipped to 38.5 from 39.3, missing expectations of 42.5. Current Situation Index improved modestly from -80.0 to -78.7.

In contrast, Eurozone-wide ZEW Sentiment Index rose to 25.0 from 22.7, beating forecasts of 23.5. Current Situation Index improved to -27.3, up 4.5 points.

ZEW President Achim Wambach noted that while sentiment remains broadly stable, investors’ trust in Germany’s economic policy response has weakened. He said the government’s investment initiatives may deliver short-term stimulus, but "structural problems continue to exist”.

Full German ZEW release here.

The USD/JPY pair advanced to 154.36 on Tuesday, edging closer to a new ten-month peak. The rally was driven by growing market optimism that the protracted US government shutdown may soon conclude, dampening demand for traditional safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen.

In Japan, Economic Recovery Minister Minoru Kiuchi highlighted the domestic challenges posed by the currency's weakness, warning that a soft yen risks amplifying inflationary pressures by increasing the cost of imports. He called for vigilant monitoring of the situation.

Concurrently, a draft of the government's new economic stimulus plan—scheduled for approval on 21st November—reveals that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet will urge the Bank of Japan to prioritise economic growth alongside price stability. The programme is also set to feature tax breaks and investment incentives targeting 17 key industries.

This comes as the Bank of Japan's October report reaffirmed its close watch on wage growth to determine the timing of its next potential rate hike. In a positive economic sign, the country registered a record current account surplus of ¥4.5 trillion in September, bolstered by robust export growth.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around 153.80. We anticipate an upward expansion of this range towards 154.80. Following this, a pullback to retest the 153.80 level from above is expected. This would likely set the stage for the next leg of the uptrend, targeting 155.70. This bullish scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is firmly above zero and pointing upwards, indicating sustained positive momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has completed an initial growth impulse to 154.48. A near-term correction towards 153.65 is now expected. Once this corrective phase concludes, we anticipate the resumption of the broader upward trend, with the next primary target at 155.70. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view. Its signal line is below 50 and trending downwards towards 20, suggesting that short-term downward pressure (the expected correction) is building before the next potential upward wave.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues its ascent, propelled by renewed risk appetite and domestic Japanese policy that implicitly favours a weaker yen. While minor corrective dips are anticipated in the short term, the overall technical and fundamental backdrop remains bullish. The path of least resistance points towards a test of 155.70, provided the pair maintains its footing above key support near 153.80.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

According to Reuters, the U.S. Senate on Monday approved a compromise deal to bring an end to the longest government shutdown in the country’s history.

During the shutdown:

→ millions of Americans lost access to food assistance programmes;

→ hundreds of thousands of federal employees went without pay;

→ air travel was severely disrupted.

The uncertainty surrounding the potential continuation of the shutdown appears to have contributed to a breakout in the price of gold (as a traditional safe-haven asset) above its recent consolidation zone, marked by black lines on the chart.

However, further gains could be capped not only by fading risk aversion but also by a less obvious resistance level, which the XAU/USD rate has reached today.

Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart

Using the key pivot points (highlighted in bold), we can trace a descending channel, with the gold price now testing its upper boundary, where resistance may emerge.

Another argument supporting this view is that the price currently sits around the 50% retracement level of the A→B downswing. This area may attract sellers seeking to defend the downward trajectory of gold.

Whether this resistance line holds — or the bulls attempt to reignite the autumn rally — will largely depend on the tone of upcoming economic releases (delayed by the shutdown) and their impact on market expectations for a possible Federal Reserve rate cut.

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The ongoing cycle in the S&P 500 Index (SPX), originating from the April 2025 low, continues to unfold as an impulsive structure. The advance to 6920.21 marked the completion of wave (3) within this impulse, as illustrated in the accompanying one-hour chart. Subsequently, the market entered a corrective phase in wave (4), which developed as a double three Elliott Wave pattern.

From the termination of wave (3), wave ((a)) declined to 6814.26, followed by a recovery in wave ((b)) to 6882.32. The Index then resumed its descent in wave ((c)), reaching 6763.11 and thereby completing wave W of a higher degree. A corrective rally in wave X ensued, peaking at 6829.78. Thereafter, the Index turned lower again, initiating wave Y as a lower-degree zigzag.

Within wave Y, wave ((a)) bottomed at 6707.51 and wave ((b)) rebounded to 6757.63. Wave ((c)) extended downward to 6630.72, finalizing wave Y of (4). The Index has since begun to rise in wave (5). However, a decisive break above the wave (3) high at 6920.21 remains necessary to invalidate the possibility of a double correction. From the wave (4) low, wave ((i)) is nearing completion. A pullback in wave ((ii)) is anticipated to correct the cycle from the November 8, 2025 low, likely unfolding in a 3, 7, or 11 swing sequence. In the near term, provided the pivot at 6630.72 remains intact, any pullback should find support within the expected swing structure, paving the way for further upside continuation.

SPX 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 11.11.2025

SPX Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHbeXtd9xbg

Sentiment is everything. That’s exactly what we’re seeing at the start of this week. Just last week, strong earnings from S&P 500 companies beat expectations — yet their stock prices fell in reaction, dragging the market lower. Even lower yields failed to lift appetite.

Monday, TSMC announced 16.9% sales growth last month – the lowest since February 2024 – yet its stock rose 1% yesterday and is only slightly down by 0.34% at the time of writing. Nvidia, on the other hand, jumped nearly 6% on Monday, erasing more than half of last week’s heavy losses, while the S&P 500 closed 1.5% higher.

For TSMC and Nvidia, I suspect that the weekend picture of Jensen Huang and TSMC Chief CC Wei — smiling with their thumbs up — may have softened the blow of the slowing sales figure, along with the fact that analysts expected around 16% growth anyway. And for the rest, it’s the US government shutdown story — finally showing some light at the end of the tunnel.

And that’s exactly what sentiment is about. It’s how investors perceive the news: if they’re in a good mood, they interpret it positively; if they’re in a bad mood, they see it negatively. One picture, one word, one data point is enough to twist and turn market mood. And right now, that mood is being shaped more by US political shenanigans — which have led to an economic data drought and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) strategy — than by earnings. If that helps...

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gained yesterday, with the Nasdaq jumping more than 2%, followed by strong gains in Asian technology stocks. Futures are slightly negative this morning, as Asia’s tech-heavy indices – like the Kospi and Topix – give back early gains.

Maybe Nvidia-backed CoreWeave’s results are partly to blame: despite a narrower-than-expected loss, their net interest expense tripled from a year ago to more than $300 million, and they’ll have to delay a data center due to a third-party issue, which will reduce annual revenue. That might reignite concerns about the massive debt and distant returns tied to AI investments. Who knows.

For those who still like the idea of diversified exposure, Japan’s government is about to loosen the purse strings and invest in 17 ‘key’ areas including AI, defense and critical minerals. The cheap yen, meanwhile, makes Japanese champions — though less exciting than their US peers — more affordable. But it’s wise to hedge against further yen depreciation, as verbal interventions – like last week’s – tend to have only a short-lived effect in pushing the bears away. The proof: they’re back in force, testing the levels that triggered those comments last week. And sorry to say this, but if left alone, the USDJPY would go to 160. Voilà.

Looking at the other leg of the USDJPY, the US dollar failed to attract buyers on news of the potential end of the government shutdown. But since the dollar strengthened during the shutdown — which was unexpected in itself — it would be only half-surprising to see it give back some gains now that the government is set to reopen.

Another odd move came from gold. The metal rallied nearly 3% yesterday – outperforming even the Mag7 stocks – whereas you’d normally expect gold to retreat amid better risk-taking and higher US yields, which raise the opportunity cost of holding it. But all that is out the window. Gold is acting like a meme stock, hinting that the last mile of the year could be more unpredictable than predicted.

And speaking of the government reopening — that’s great news! Not only because many federal employees will return to work, get paid and spend, but also because investors will finally receive a flood of economic data. Data that will help them gauge the health of the US economy, assess the jobs market and see whether inflation is picking up momentum — all of which will help them readjust bets ahead of the Fed’s December meeting, ultimately influencing the stock prices of the world’s favourite companies.

Right now, Fed futures assign only a 63.5% chance of a December rate cut. But that could change a hundred times in the coming days as the end of the shutdown brings a deluge of data all at once. In the best-case scenario, investors will get jobs and inflation figures in time to position for the next Fed decision. In the worst case, some data – including CPI – could be missing. If that’s the case, the Fed would be better off delaying its move by a month rather than cutting and regretting it later. They did that in September 2024, and it didn’t go well. But I’m not the Fed, and I’m not under political pressure — I’m just saying that would be the ideal response in an ideal world. And we’re far from that.

But who cares? The market is doing well. US indices are near all-time highs. Private data points to a cooling US labour market and slowing October inflation. I’m referring here to a Bloomberg article citing OpenBrand and PriceStats data — from companies few have heard of — but they serve as an imperfect indication of what may be happening with price pressures. The theory is that businesses are refraining from raising prices, faced with price-wary consumers. If the official data confirms that – slowing jobs, contained inflation – you can pop the champagne and enjoy the holiday season! If not, you can always buy the dip.

In focus today

In the UK, the monthly labour market report is released today. Payrolls have declined throughout the year, but the pace has been modest and not too worrying. Wage growth has been edging lower but remains elevated. After last week's decision from the BoE to wait for more info before cutting rates further, we will look for signs on particularly easing wage pressures.

In Germany, the ZEW indicator will give the first hint of sentiment in November of the German economy. The assessment of the current situation has been declining in the past three months but is expected to show a small improvement. Expectations have remained at a decent level this year despite some volatility and consensus is looking for a marginal rise.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In the US, the Senate passed a bill on Monday to end the longest government shutdown in US history, with nearly all Republicans and eight Democrats supporting the deal. The bill restores funding for federal agencies, prevents additional layoffs until 30 January 2026, and funds the SNAP food aid programme through September 2026. However, the agreement does not guarantee an extension of ACA subsidies, with a vote on the issue scheduled for December. The bill now moves to the House for approval before heading to President Trump for his signature.

In markets, optimism over a potential end to the record-breaking US government shutdown supported risk sentiment on Monday, with stocks rebounding and Treasury yields rising. The S&P 500 rose 1.54%, while the Nasdaq jumped 2.27%, driven by strong performance in tech and airline stocks. However, health insurers declined after the Senate deal excluded an extension of ACA subsidies. Investors now anticipate the release of delayed economic data, which is expected to clarify growth prospects and guide the Fed's December rate decision. Liquidity pressures in money markets are also likely to ease as the shutdown ends.

What happened yesterday

In the US, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem (voter, hawkish) was on the wire and highlighted the resilience of the economy and inflation nearing 3%, slightly above the 2% target. He stressed the need for a cautious approach to monetary policy to ensure inflation is reduced.

In the euro area, the Sentix Investor Confidence indicator unexpectedly declined to -7.4 in November (cons: -4.0) from -5.4 last month. Sentix is the first indicator for confidence in November and suggests that sentiment has declined a bit in November although the level itself is quite similar to the past three months.

In Norway, core inflation surprised strongly to the upside at 3.4% y/y, expected 3.0%. Details revealed that the surprise stemmed mainly from higher imported inflation, contributing +0.3 pp. compared to expectations. As the NOK has remained fairly stable over the summer and global goods inflation remains muted, this looks a lot like price adjustments ahead of the upcoming Black week discounts. Unfortunately, we need to see at least the November figure to test our suspicion. The figure was higher than Norges Bank expected in the latest MPR and led to higher rates and a stronger NOK.

In Denmark, CPI inflation declined to 2.1% y/y in October from 2.3% in September, against our 2.2% expectation. Electricity prices increased by 15.9% on the back of reintroduction of winter tariffs but also higher spot prices. The pressure on food prices looks to decline somewhat with a 0.4% m/m decline. Seasonality would also suggest a small decline.

In Sweden, activity data for September showed continued strength in production and consumption. According to the monthly measures, Q3 concluded with robust growth rates, slightly exceeding our expectations. The September data confirmed the strong GDP flash for Q3 (1.1% q/q, 2.4% y/y) and suggests that the Swedish economy made significant progress in early autumn.

In Switzerland, reports suggest that the country is nearing an agreement with the US to secure a reduction in tariffs on its exports to 15%, down from the 39% levy imposed in August. According to sources, a deal could be finalised within two weeks, though talks remain ongoing. President Trump has confirmed efforts to lower tariffs to support Switzerland.

Equities: Global equities kicked off the week in a remarkably strong tone, led by significant cyclical outperformance and broad-based gains across indices. While headlines were quick to attribute the move to expectations of an imminent end to the US government shutdown, the real drivers run deeper. As we highlighted yesterday, this rally is not about the shutdown itself; it is about a supportive macro backdrop driven by three key factors: improving macro momentum, a strong earnings season, and a Federal Reserve on a path towards loosening monetary policy. That combination explains the magnitude of yesterday's move after nearly a month of sideways drift in equities. The sector pattern was textbook: cyclicals, growth, and momentum stocks led the rally, while the only red spot on the screen was consumer staples.

This sends a clear message to investors: you need to decide whether you believe in the persistence of a solid macroeconomic and earnings environment. If you do, cyclicals and growth stocks are likely to continue to outperform, while defensives and low-beta sectors will lag. We are not at an inflection point that suggests a broad rotation; rather, it is a question of your macroeconomic outlook. And let's be honest, much of the outlook depends on the US labour market. If you get the US labour market call right for the rest of the year, you are likely to have your overall asset allocation strategy right as well. In the US yesterday: Dow +0.8%, S&P 500 +1.5%, Nasdaq +2.3%, and Russell 2000 +0.9%. Asian equities are trading slightly in the red this morning, while European futures point higher, and US futures are hovering around unchanged.

FI and FX: Global yields continue to move marginally higher on rising optimism as to the near-term prospects for an end to the US government shutdown. Yesterday's session marked an end to the last weeks' steepening pressure on USD and EUR swap curves as the short end underperformed the long end, driving an inter-day flattening. The flattening pressure was the most pronounced in NOK rates, where higher-than-expected core inflation data sent 2Y swap rates 7bp higher returning the 2s10s curve slope to new lows around -14bp. In FX space moves have been more modest, although cyclically sensitive currencies such as ZAR, AUD, NOK and NZD have all outperformed.

UK labor market data released today showed further cooling, reinforcing expectations that the BoC would deliver another rate cut in December.

In October, Payrolled employment fell -0.1% mom, or -32k, while claimant count rose 29k, exceeding expectations of a 20.3k rise. Wage pressures also eased significantly. Median monthly pay grew just 3.1% yoy, sharply down from 5.9% previously and marking the weakest pace since mid-2020.

In the three months to September, unemployment rate climbed from 4.8% to 5.0%, the highest in four years. Average earnings growth slowed from 5.0% yoy to 4.8% including bonuses, and from 4.7% yoy to 4.6% excluding them. Both readings highlight that the pay cycle is losing momentum as inflation falls and labor slack builds.

Full UK job data release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 202.21; (P) 202.72; (R1) 203.63; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 204.22 resistance should confirm that correction from 205.30 has completed with three waves at 199.04. Further rise should be seen through 205.30 to resume the larger rally from 184.53. On the downside, below 201.36 minor support will turn bias to the downside to 199.04 and below to extend the correction.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 197.47 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 177.52; (P) 177.98; (R1) 178.63; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as it's still staying in range below 178.80 resistance. On the upside, decisive break of 178..80 will resume larger up trend, next target is 100% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 171.09 at 183.90. On the downside, below 177.19 will bring deeper fall back to 175.67 support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, firm break of 174.80 support will suggests that it has turned into consolidations first. But still, outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 168.56) holds, even in case of deep pullback.