Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8762; (P) 0.8779; (R1) 0.8788; More…

EUR/GBP is still bounded in consolidations below 0.8828 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8761 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.8828 will resume the whole rise from 0.8221 and target 0.8867 fibonacci level. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, decisive break of 0.8761 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8710).

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Firm break of 0.8654 support will be the first sign that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7634; (P) 1.7724; (R1) 1.7772; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.7561 support will revive the bearish case that corrective pattern from 1.8554 is in the third leg, and target 1.7245 support. On the upside, though, above 1.7895 will resume the rebound from 1.7561 to 1.8160 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7424) will suggest that it's correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound form 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9295; (P) 0.9311; (R1) 0.9321; More....

Intraday bias EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point. More consolidations could be seen below 0.9325 first. On the upside, break of 0.9325 will target 0.9371 resistance. Break there will pave the way back to 0.9452 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.9257 will revive near term bearishness, and bring retest of 0.9204/8 support zone.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9383). Firm break of 0.9204 will resume the whole down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. However, break of 0.9452 resistance will now be the first sign of medium term bottoming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3996; (P) 1.4027; (R1) 1.4053; More...

No change in USD/CAD's outlook and intraday bias stays mildly on the downside. . Fall from 1.4139 short term top would extend towards 1.3886 support. On the upside, break of 1.4139 will resume the rally from 1.3538 to 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4312.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), with rise from 1.3538 as the second leg. A third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6504; (P) 0.6522; (R1) 0.6555; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as sideway trading continues. On the downside, break of 0.6457 will target 0.6413 cluster (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403). Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, break of 0.6616 will bring retest of 0.6706 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Break of 0.6413 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and solidify this bearish case. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1538; (P) 1.1560; (R1) 1.1580; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further fall would remain in favor as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.1623) holds. Below 1.1467 will resumed the decline from 1.1917 to 1.1390 support next. However, sustained trading above 55 D EMA will argue that fall from 1.1971 has completed as a correction only, and bring further rise to 1.1727 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1306) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3144; (P) 1.3168; (R1) 1.3198; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen above 1.3008. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3247 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.3008 will target 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3185) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2780) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8038; (P) 0.8056; (R1) 0.8067; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, decisive break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8008) will argue that the corrective bounce from 0.7828 has completed and bring retest of this low. On the upside, above 0.8123 will resume the rebound to 138.2% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7872 at 0.8213.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.64; (P) 153.95; (R1) 154.43; More...

Immediate focus is now on 154.47 resistance in USD/JPY. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 139.87. Next target is 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Break there will pave the way to 158.85 key structural resistance. However, break of 152.81 support will turn bias back to the downside for 149.37 support for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 149.37 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

U.S. markets surged overnight after lawmakers in Washington moved closer to ending the country’s record-breaking government shutdown, boosting risk sentiment across equities and commodities. The Senate’s approval of a bipartisan deal eased fiscal uncertainty and restored momentum to Wall Street, where Nvidia, Palantir, and Broadcom led a powerful rebound in technology and AI-linked stocks.

The rebound also marked a sharp reversal from last week’s caution when concerns over stretched AI valuations triggered broad profit-taking. Those fears have quickly taken a back seat, replaced by renewed risk appetite as investors welcomed the prospect of a fiscal resolution and an extended runway for the U.S. economy. Greed, it seems, has once again overtaken fear.

The U.S. Senate on Monday approved a bipartisan compromise to end the country’s longest-ever shutdown, passing the measure by 60 votes to 40 with support from nearly all Republicans and eight Democrats. The agreement would restore funding for government agencies that have been shuttered since October 1 and halt President Donald Trump’s drive to downsize the federal workforce, preventing further layoffs until January 30.

The legislation now moves to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson has pledged swift action, aiming to pass the bill as soon as Wednesday and send it to the President for signature. The resolution would end a damaging impasse that has frozen public-sector activity and delayed key economic data, paving the way for normalization ahead of the Fed’s December meeting.

Wall Street welcomed the news with conviction. DOW rose 0.81%, S&P 500 climbed 1.54%, and NASDAQ Composite surged 2.27%, powered by strong gains in chipmakers and AI-linked names. Treasury yields inched higher, with 10-year yield up 1.7bps to 4.11. Asian markets, however, offered a more tempered response. Initial gains faded through the session, leaving the region mixed. At the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.17%, Hong Kong’s HSI -0.35%, and Shanghai’s SSE -0.44%, while Singapore’s Straits Times outperforms with a 1.11% advance.

In currency markets, optimism was more restrained. Aussie led gains for the week so far on improving risk tone, followed by Kiwi and Swiss Franc. Yen remained the weakest performer, pressured by Tokyo’s commitment to maintaining easy monetary conditions, while Euro and Dollar both softened modestly within tight ranges. Sterling and the Canadian Dollar traded mid-pack. Most pairs are still confined within last week’s ranges.

Australia Westpac consumer confidence surges to 103.8, marking end of prolonged pessimism

Australian consumer confidence jumped sharply in November, marking a clear break from years of pessimism. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index rose 12.8% mom to 103.8, its first positive reading since early 2022 and the highest in seven years, excluding the brief COVID-era spike. The surge was underpinned by a sharp improvement in views on the economy, with the 12-month and five-year outlook sub-indexes rising 16.6% and 15.3%, respectively—both now well above long-run averages.

Westpac said the result “draws a clearer line” under the prolonged period of consumer strain caused by high inflation, elevated interest rates, and rising tax burdens. The rebound likely reflects stronger domestic momentum, particularly in housing and consumer demand, as well as a more stable external backdrop. The recent de-escalation in U.S.–China trade tensions and a new Australia–U.S. deal on critical minerals have also buoyed sentiment.

The real surprise, according to Westpac, is how decisively these positive forces outweighed lingering worries about inflation and future rate settings. The data suggest households are regaining confidence in Australia’s recovery prospects even as monetary policy remains tight—offering a fresh signal that consumer resilience could help underpin growth heading into 2026.

RBNZ survey points to one more cut, then extended hold through 2026

New Zealand’s inflation expectations remain well anchored, while rate projections signal the RBNZ’s easing cycle is nearing its end.

The latest RBNZ Survey of Expectations showed the mean one-year-ahead inflation expectation edging up slightly to 2.39% from 2.37%. Two-year expectation stayed unchanged at 2.28%. Longer-term views were broadly steady, with the five-year expectation easing to 2.22% and the ten-year measure rising modestly to 2.18%—all consistent with the Bank’s 1–3% target midpoint.

Respondents now see the Official Cash Rate, currently at 2.50% following October’s 50bps cut, at 2.25% by year-end, implying just one more 25bps reduction before policy stabilizes. The one-year-ahead OCR expectation fell sharply to 2.31% from 2.86%, indicating that market participants expect the RBNZ to remain on hold through much of 2026 as inflation trends near target and growth moderates.

Growth over currency defense: Japan’s low-rate bias to fuel CHF/JPY rally

Yen weakness persisted as comments from Japan’s officials reinforced the view of supporting growth through lower interest rates outweighs concerns about further Yen depreciation.

Economic Revitalization Minister Minoru Kiuchi acknowledged today that a weaker Yen can push up prices prices. However, he also emphasized that “import prices in Yen terms have been falling for eight consecutive months.” The latest BoJ Corporate Goods Price Index showed that annual import price inflation has been negative throughout 2025, except in January. This underlines Kiuchi’s message that the government remains broadly comfortable with current exchange rate trends.

Taken together with recent comments from other officials, Tokyo’s stance appears tolerant of moderate Yen weakness. As long as the moves are not disorderly, authorities seem focused on broader economic stability rather than exchange-rate management.

The stance reflects clear priorities under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, whose administration has emphasized growth and fiscal stimulus over premature monetary tightening. Her economic package leaves little ambiguity as she called it “extremely important” for monetary policy to focus on achieving strong economic growth

Takaichi also explicitly urged the BoJ to reach 2% inflation sustainably through wage gains, not cost-push effects. Her stance effectively discourages early tightening, highlighting that policy coordination now leans toward growth-first rather than currency defense.

This political backdrop makes it increasingly unlikely that Governor Kazuo Ueda will push for a rate hike at the December meeting. While BoJ board members have indicated readiness to tighten if inflation stays resilient, the growing government influence implies that any move may be delayed until early 2026—and that the pace of normalization will remain slow thereafter.

Technically, CHF/JPY’s rebound suggests that the pullback from 192.67 has completed at 189.07. Decisive break above 192.67 would resume the long term uptrend, targeting 100% projection of 173.06 to 186.02 from 183.95 at 196.91.

On the downside, however, firm break of 189.07 support would risk completing a head-and-shoulders top, signaling the end of the five-wave rally from 165.83.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.64; (P) 153.95; (R1) 154.43; More...

Immediate focus is now on 154.47 resistance in USD/JPY. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 139.87. Next target is 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Break there will pave the way to 158.85 key structural resistance. However, break of 152.81 support will turn bias back to the downside for 149.37 support for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 149.37 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.