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The BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from October 29–30 meeting revealed a growing consensus among policymakers that conditions are nearly in place for a rate hike. Eight opinions either called for raising interest rates soon or outlined conditions under which borrowing costs should rise in the near term—marking the clearest sign yet that the BoJ is preparing for its next move.

Several members emphasized that while immediate action may not be necessary, the Bank “should not miss the timing to raise the policy interest rate.” Others noted that a hike would likely follow if global economic conditions remained stable and corporate wage-setting momentum was sustained. One view stated that “conditions for taking a further step toward normalizing the policy rate have almost been met,” but stressed the need to confirm that underlying inflation is firmly entrenched.

Still, some members urged caution. One participant argued that the BoJ should take “a little more time” to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs and Japan’s new fiscal direction before tightening policy further. The minutes reinforce market expectations that the Bank is leaning toward a rate increase either in December or early 2026, contingent on wage data and external stability.

China’s inflation turned positive in October, signaling tentative signs of price stabilization e. Headline CPI rose 0.2% yoy, beating expectations of flat growth and rebounding from September’s -0.3%. The return to positive territory, driven largely by firmer service prices, suggests domestic demand may be gradually recovering amid ongoing policy support.

The breakdown showed goods prices still fell -0.2% yoy, while service prices rose 0.8%. Food prices remained weak, down -2.9%. But core CPI—excluding food and energy—accelerated from 1.0% to 1.2%, the highest since March 2024.

Producer prices also edged higher, with PPI contracting -2.1% yoy, less than September’s -2.3% and above forecasts of -2.3% yoy. It marked the 37th straight month of decline but reflected narrower price falls in key industrial sectors.

It was a quiet week in the markets as the U.S. government shutdown became the longest on record. The shutdown hurt confidence and delayed important U.S. economic data. Stocks in the U.S. fell as investors worried that prices are too high and that company profits may slow.

New data also showed signs of weakness in the U.S. economy. The Challenger report revealed that layoffs in October reached the highest level in 20 years, as more companies began using AI to cut costs. Consumer confidence also dropped to its lowest point since 2022, showing that many Americans are becoming more worried about a slowdown.

In the U.K., the Bank of England kept interest rates the same, but four of the nine members voted to cut rates — a sign that some are worried about the economy. In Japan, the Bank of Japan’s September meeting minutes showed that two members supported raising rates to 0.75%, suggesting that Japan may slowly move toward higher interest rates even as other countries consider cutting them.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

The Dow index fell below its 10-day moving average last week as investors continued to take profits amid concerns about overvaluation and signs of a slowing U.S. economy. With the market now trading under this key level, further short-term weakness is likely to continue. Resistance levels are at 47,500, 48,000, and 49,000, while support lies at 46,500, 46,000, 45,500, and 45,000.

Japanese Stocks

The Nikkei 225 fell over 4% last week, which looks big but makes sense after the strong rally in recent months. Profit-taking and weakness in U.S. stocks pushed the market lower. The Japanese government still plans to announce a new stimulus package later this month to support the economy, which could help limit further losses. With the uptrend now broken, traders can look for range-trading chances this week and take advantage of high volatility. Resistance is at 51,250円, 52,000円, and 53,000円, while support is at 50,000円, 49,000円, 48,500円, and 47,000円.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY continued to test higher last week after the Bank of Japan decided to delay any rate hikes. However, new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressed concern about the yen’s weakness, raising the possibility of intervention and leading the pair to close slightly lower for the week. While the yen is likely to stay weak overall, a move above 155 seems unlikely in the short term, making the current market conditions attractive for range traders. Resistance is at 154.5, 155, and 156, while support is at 153, 151.5, 151, and 150.

Gold

Gold moved lower early last week but held firm at the $3,900 support level. The market closed the week higher, staying above the 10-day moving average as buyers returned on growing concerns about U.S. equities and the broader economy. Similar buying interest is expected this week, with the market likely to trade sideways to slightly higher and test the $4,050 level. Resistance is at $4,050, $4,150, and $4,200, while support stands at $3,925, $3,900, and $3,800.

Crude Oil

WTI came under pressure last week, falling below the key $60 support level as weak U.S. economic data and concerns about lower demand from China weighed on prices. The 10-day moving average is now turning lower, suggesting that further weakness is likely. Traders should focus on selling opportunities as long as prices remain below the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $65, $66.50, $70, and $75, while support is at $55 and $50.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin fell below key support at $106,000 as rising risk-off sentiment triggered selling from technical traders. While retail investors have continued to buy, institutional investors are showing more caution, adding to downward pressure. Further liquidation is possible, so it’s better to look for selling opportunities near the 10-day moving average as long as the market stays below $106,000. Resistance is at $106,000, $116,000, and $120,000, while support stands at $100,000, $95,000, and $90,000.

This Week’s Focus

• Tuesday: Japan Current Account, U.K. Unemployment Rate, E.U. ZEW Economic Sentiment
• Thursday: Australia Unemployment Rate, U.K. GDP and Industrial Production, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
• Friday: E.U. GDP and Trade Balance

Traders are focusing on investor sentiment as delays to important U.S. economic data from the government shutdown make it hard to understand the current outlook. The Japanese yen is in focus, as more weakness could lead to action from the Bank of Japan, while gold traders are watching to see if prices can recover after recent losses. Bitcoin is holding near key support at $100,000, keeping volatility high and leaving the risk of a sharp drop.

Hello fellow traders,

In this technical article, we are going to present Elliott Wave charts of AUDJPY Forex pair . As our members know, the pair is showing a 3-wave pullback against the 96.23 low, taking the form of an Elliott Wave Zigzag structure.In the following sections, we will explain the Elliott Wave pattern and analysis, along with the potential targets.

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Zigzag.

Elliott Wave Zigzag is the most popular corrective pattern in Elliott Wave theory . It’s made of 3 swings which have 5-3-5 inner structure. Inner swings are A,B,C where A =5 waves, B=3 waves and C=5 waves. That means A and C can be either impulsive waves or diagonals. (Leading Diagonal in case of wave A or Ending in case of wave C) . Waves A and C must meet all conditions of being 5 wave structure, such as: having RSI divergency between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions and ideal retracements.

AUDJPY 1-Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 11.05.2025

AUDJPY ended the cycle from the 96.23 low as a 5-wave structure. The pair is now in the process of correcting that cycle. So far, we can count 5 waves in the decline, which suggests that the pullback remains incomplete.

The 5-wave drop from the peak indicates that we may have only completed the first leg of the correction. We expect to see a 3-wave bounce in wave ((b)), followed by another leg lower in wave ((c)) black.

Wave ((b)) typically completes within the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone, which in this case comes in around the 100.017–100.293 area. In that zone, we expect sellers to appear again for another leg down in wave ((c)).

AUDJPY 1-Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 11.07.2025

AUDJPY completed a 3-wave bounce in wave ((b)) black, right within the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone (100.017–100.293), as expected. From that area, the pair experienced a sharp decline.

While below the 100.40 high, we can count wave ((b)) as completed, and the pair can continue trading lower within wave ((c)). The next potential target area for buyers is seen at 97.97 -97.48.

NZDCAD: ⬇️ Sell

• NZDCAD broke support area
•  Likely to fall to support level 0.7850

NZDCAD currency pair recently broke the support area between the support level 0.7950 and the support trendline of the wide weekly down channel from the start of July.

The breakout of this support area accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from July.

Given the strong daily downtrend, NZDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.7850 (former multi-month support from April).

GBPJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• GBPJPY reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 202.85

GBPJPY currency pair recently reversed from the support area between the support level 200.00 (former resistance from July to September), lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily down channel from the start of October.

The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous short-term ABC correction 2 from the start of October.

Given the clear daily uptrend and the strongly bearish yen sentiment seen across the FX markets today, GBPJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 202.85.

It was another volatile week in global markets, defined less by fresh data and more by the growing weight of unresolved macro risks. With the U.S. government still in shutdown and a raft of key economic reports missing, investors were left to trade sentiment rather than facts — and sentiment turned sharply negative mid-week.

The standout development was the sudden reversal in technology shares, which reignited talk of a possible AI-driven bubble and reminded investors how dependent this year’s rally has become on a narrow group of market leaders.

Risk aversion dominated currency trading for most of the week. Kiwi, Aussie, and Loonie sat firmly at the bottom of the performance ladder, all weighed by global risk flows even as their domestic fundamentals diverged.

New Zealand Dollar suffered most after weak labor-market data deepened expectations for another rate cut later this month. Australian Dollar found little comfort in the RBA’s hawkish hold. Investors more focused on fading risk appetite than on policy nuance, even though RBA indicated no more rate hike this year.

Canadian Dollar, meanwhile, lagged early on but found a lifeline in surprisingly strong October employment figures that eased expectations of further BoC easing.

Among the gainers, Yen led the pack, supported by safe-haven demand, though late-week profit-taking erased much of its gains. The Japanese currency’s next moves will likely hinge on how U.S. and European yields evolve in tandem with risk sentiment.

Euro and Sterling rounded out the top three performers, helped by a slightly softer Dollar. BoE narrowly avoided easing in a tense 5-4 vote, but rate cut is still underway after getting more details from the U.K. government’s Autumn Budget later this month. Dollar and Swiss Franc ended in the middle of the pack.

NASDAQ Pullback on AI Fears, But Bulls Still Hold the Line

One of the defining stories of the week was the sharp pullback in technology shares, which reignited debate over whether the AI boom has turned from opportunity to overvaluation. The selloff was abrupt and broad, sending NASDAQ down roughly 3% in its worst week since April. S&P 500 and DOW each lost more than 1%, as investors trimmed exposure to crowded positions that had powered this year’s rally.

The correction was triggered less by new data and more by a shift in psychology. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned that equity markets could face a “likely 10–20% drawdown” over the next two years. His comment added weight to simmering unease that the AI-driven melt-up might have outpaced real earnings growth.

That view was indeed voiced last month by IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, who likened the current enthusiasm for artificial intelligence to the late-1990s dot-com frenzy. His warning drew little attention at the time, overshadowed by headlines on trade tensions, the U.S. government shutdown, and shifting central-bank policies. But it has since resurfaced as the AI correction story takes center stage.

Still, the counter-arguments were also loud. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang pushed back, saying the AI cycle remains in its infancy and comparing the current stage to the early internet build-out. “We’re in the beginning of a very long expansion of artificial intelligence,” he said, dismissing bubble talk as premature. For many investors, that remains the dominant view: short-term volatility may purge excess positioning, but the secular story behind AI remains intact.

Technically, NASDAQ’s intraday behavior told a similar story of nervous but orderly profit-taking. The index hit a low of 22,563.41 on Friday—almost exactly at its rising 55 D EMA at 22,576.14, before rebounding to close above 23,000. The swift turnaround hinted at bargain-hunting and short-covering rather than capitulation.

For now, the uptrend from 14,784.03 (Apr low) remains intact. Further rise should still be seen to 100% projection of 10,088.82 (2022 low) to 20,204.58 (2024 high) from 14,783.03 at 24,899.78. But initial resistance should emerge there on overbought condition, or maybe a little higher at 25,000 psychological level, to cap upside on first attempt.

Conversely, decisive fall below 22,193.07 support would signal that the consolidation is maturing into a deeper correction, targeting the 38.2% retracement of 14,784.03 to 24,019.99 at 20,491.85.

Shutdown, Tariff Court Case, and Yield Jitters

Away from the drama in equities, the U.S. macro environment grew more complicated. The federal government shutdown stretched into another week, marking the longest in history, with no sign of political compromise in Washington. The standoff has now begun to show real-world effects, both logistical and psychological, as federal agencies remain shuttered and workers unpaid.

Late in the week, the Senate once again failed to advance competing funding bills. Republicans rejected a Democrat proposal to reopen the government, while Democrats blocked a GOP measure that would have selectively paid active-duty troops and essential personnel. The result is ongoing paralysis — and growing frustration from both markets and the public sector.

The shutdown’s side effects are no longer theoretical. Hundreds of U.S. flights were cancelled or delayed after the administration ordered schedule reductions to ease pressure on unpaid air traffic controllers. Those cuts, currently around 4%, could rise to 10% if no agreement is reached in the coming week. Investors are increasingly wary that prolonged disruption could start to weigh on growth and confidence.

Compounding the uncertainty, the U.S. Supreme Court opened hearings on the legality of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs. The case hinges on whether such tariffs can be justified under emergency powers normally reserved for national security crises.

A ruling against the administration could overturn significant portions of the tariff framework, creating fresh ambiguity for global trade and corporate planning. Equally important is that refund obligations from invalidated tariffs could materially worsen US fiscal arithmetic. Any revenue shortfall, if not offset by spending cuts, might widen the deficit and steepen the Treasury yield curve — with long-term yields rising even as short-term rates fall under Fed easing. The mere possibility has already stirred unease among bond traders.

That dynamic was already visible last week as the U.S. 10-year yield climbed back above 4.1, touching an intraday high of 4.161 before retreating. Technically, the rebound from the 3.947 short term bottom still looks corrective within the broader downtrend from 4.629. Upside should be capped by 4.205 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 4.629 to 3.947 at 4.207). That should set the range for more sideway trading between 3.95/4.20 in the near term.

Decisive break above 4.205, however, would send a very different signal — suggesting that fiscal concerns are overtaking disinflation and that a deeper re-pricing in the bond market may be under way.

Dollar Index's rebound from 92.61 continued last week and hit 100.36. Further rise is still in favor in the near term, but upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 96.21 at 101.54. On the downside, break of 98.56 support will indicate that the corrective rebound has completed and bring deeper fall back to 96.21 low.

However decisive break of 101.54 would argue that Dollar Index is already reversing the whole down trend from 110.17. In particular, if 10-year yield breaks through 4.2 mark decisively in tandem, that would add additional tailwind to Dollar Index for an even stronger rally.

NZD/USD Slide Deepens After Job Data, Pandemic-Era Low Back in Sight

New Zealand Dollar tumbled broadly last week, closing as the weakest performer among major currencies. Global risk aversion remained the dominant drag, but the domestic backdrop offered little to offset it. With labor market momentum stalling and policy expectations leaning dovish, Kiwi continued to lose ground across the board.

The Q3 employment figures were uninspiring. Job growth was flat, and the unemployment rate edged up to 5.3%, its highest level since 2016. While the deterioration was not severe enough to trigger another emergency-sized cut, it nevertheless cemented expectations that the RBNZ will ease by 25 bps to 2.25% at its upcoming meeting.

Whether that move will mark the end of the easing cycle remains uncertain. Much will depend on whether tentative improvements seen in business sentiment surveys can translate into real activity gains over the next two quarters. For now, traders see the odds of another rate cut in 2026 as a coin toss.

Technically, NZD/USD's fall from 0.6119 continued last week. The strong break of the falling channel support and 100% projection of 0.6119 to 0.5799 from 0.6006 at 0.5687 both indicate downside acceleration. Near term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 0.5800 resistance holds. Next target is the support zone between 0.5484 low and 161.8% projection at 0.5490.

For now, there is little fundamental reason for NZD/USD to collapse through 0.5467 (2020 low) to resume the long term down trend from 0.8835 (2014 high). But the technical risks are growing.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY edged higher to 154.47 last week but retreated again. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some more consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 151.52 support holds. Above 154.47 will resume larger rise from 139.87 and target 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Break there will pave the way to 158.85 key structural resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 149.37 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

In the long term picture, there is no sign that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. But then, firm break of 161.94 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.

EUR/USD dipped to 1.1467 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further fall would remain in favor as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.1628) holds. Below 1.1467 will resumed the decline from 1.1917 to 1.1390 support next. However, sustained trading above 55 D EMA will argue that fall from 1.1971 has completed as a correction only, and bring further rise to 1.1727 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1306) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.

USD/JPY edged higher to 154.47 last week but retreated again. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some more consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 151.52 support holds. Above 154.47 will resume larger rise from 139.87 and target 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Break there will pave the way to 158.85 key structural resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 149.37 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

In the long term picture, there is no sign that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. But then, firm break of 161.94 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.