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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3075; (P) 1.3109; (R1) 1.3171; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 1.3008. Further decline is expected with 1.3247 support turned resistance intact. Break of 1.3008 will resume the fall from 1.3787 and target 61.8% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.2744. Sustained break there will pave the way to 1.2099 support next.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3185) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2780) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1508; (P) 1.1530; (R1) 1.1569; More…

EUR/USD's recovery form 1.1467 extended higher today but stays well inside near term falling channel. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is expected. On the downside, below 1.1467 will resume the fall from 1.1917. However, firm break of the channel resistance (now at 1.1589) will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.1727 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1306) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4091; (P) 1.4116; (R1) 1.4141; More...

USD/CAD dips notably in early US session but stays above 55 4H EMA (now at 1.4055) so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside break of 1.4139 will resume larger rally from 1.3538 to 100% projection of 1.3725 to 1.4078 from 1.3886 at 1.4239. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.4052) will bring deeper fall back to 1.3886 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Based on current momentum, rise from 1.3538 is the second leg, and a third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

Canadian Dollar firmed sharply in early U.S. session after a surprisingly strong set of October employment figures. While the gains were largely driven by part-time positions, the sheer magnitude of the increase — a second consecutive month of robust job creation — underscores that momentum is returning to the Canadian economy even amid lingering trade-related headwinds.

For the BoC, today’s data should come as a welcome relief. It suggests the economy is regaining traction after months of tariff-induced uncertainty, and that further near-term monetary stimulus may not be necessary. The employment resilience aligns with Governor Tiff Macklem’s recent remarks that interest rates are now “at the right level” for policymakers to pause and assess how structural adjustments from trade frictions unfold.

Beyond Canada, global market sentiment remains broadly cautious. Risk aversion continues to dominate, with equity weakness extending from Asia into Europe. The tone remains fragile following renewed concerns about an extended correction in technology and AI-linked stocks, which triggered sharp declines earlier in the week.

Major European indices are trading lower, mirroring losses in Asia. At the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.78%, DAX -0.98%, and CAC -0.47%, while government bond yields are slightly higher, with UK 10-year gilt yield rising to 4.48% and Germany’s bund yield at 2.67%. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -1.19%, Hong Kong HSI -0.92%, and China Shanghai SSE -0.25%, with Singapore’s Strait Times the lone gainer, up 0.16%.

In the U.S., futures are pointing to a weaker open while 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back above 4.1%. The next test for sentiment will be whether the AI selloff that began earlier in the week continues to gather steam into the weekend.

In currency markets, for the week so far, Kiwi and Aussie remain the weakest performers, while the Loonie, though still soft overall, could climb up the ranks if momentum extends. Meanwhile, Yen remains the strongest currency, followed by Euro and Dollar. Sterling and Swiss Franc sit in the middle of the pack.

Canada employment surges 66.6k in October, driven by part-time work

Canada’s labor market surprised to the upside once again in October, as employment jumped by 66.6k, far exceeding expectations of -4k decline. The robust increase followed an already strong 60.4k rise in September, signaling that continuous hiring momentum. Unemployment rate slipped from 7.1% to 6.9%, beating forecasts for 7.2%, while employment rate edged up from 60.6% to 60.8%.

However, the composition of the October gains was less encouraging. The headline strength was largely driven by part-time positions, which rose by 85k, while full-time employment contracted. On a more positive note, private-sector jobs increased by 73k, marking the first rise since June,.

Wage data also showed mild upward pressure, with average hourly pay up 3.5% yoy, accelerating from 3.3% yoy in September.

Fed's Jefferson: Economy holding up, to proceed cautiously near neutral

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said in speech today that despite the lack of official data amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, private-sector indicators show the overall economy "has not changed much" in recent months. Growth continues at a moderate pace, while the labor market appears to be gradually cooling.

On inflation, Jefferson acknowledged that price growth remains elevated, but he attributed the "lack of progress in headline inflation" largely to tariff effects. He noted that underlying inflation measures continue to “make progress” toward target.

Jefferson reiterated his support for last week’s 25bps rate cut given the shift in risks toward weaker employment. He added that the policy stance remains somewhat restrictive but is now closer to neutral, making it sensible for the Fed to “proceed slowly” from here.

Looking ahead, Jefferson emphasized that future policy decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. With the government shutdown likely to continue suppressing key releases before December, "this approach is especially prudent".

China exports fall -1.1% in October as tariff frontloading fades

China’s trade momentum faltered in October, with exports contracting -1.1% yoy, far below expectations for a 3.0% rise and the weakest reading since February. The figures suggest that the earlier tariff frontloading surge has fully dissipated, exposing underlying fragility in external demand. In particular, shipments to the U.S. tumbled -25.2% yoy, extending a seven-month run of double-digit declines. Exports to the EU inched up 0.9% and to ASEAN gained 8.9%.

Imports increased a modest 1.0% yoy, missing forecasts of 3.2%, as domestic consumption and industrial demand was muted. Purchases from the U.S. fell -23%, underlining the structural damage caused by persistent tariff barriers. Trade surplus stood at USD 90.07 B, reflecting sluggish imports rather than export strength.

The trade figures come amid renewed political friction between Beijing and Washington. Early October saw tensions flare after US President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs in response to China’s decision to expand export controls on rare earth metals. A meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping in South Korea last week helped ease market nerves, resulting in a one-year extension of the bilateral truce that had been due to expire on November 10.

Still, the truce provides only limited near-term relief. U.S.-bound Chinese exports continue to face average tariffs of about 45%, well above the profit-neutral level of 35% identified by analysts.

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4091; (P) 1.4116; (R1) 1.4141; More...

USD/CAD dips notably in early US session but stays above 55 4H EMA (now at 1.4055) so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside break of 1.4139 will resume larger rally from 1.3538 to 100% projection of 1.3725 to 1.4078 from 1.3886 at 1.4239. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.4052) will bring deeper fall back to 1.3886 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Based on current momentum, rise from 1.3538 is the second leg, and a third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

Canada gained 67k new jobs in October (0.3% m/m), defying forecasters, and building on September's gain. Gains through September and October have now offset losses in July and August. However, the details were mixed, with the private sector driving the increase (+73k), but positions were mainly part-time (+85K).

Job gains pushed the unemployment rate down two tenths to 6.9%, back to its level in July. Labour force growth has slowed sharply in 2025, but it continues to outpace job creation, with the unemployment rate still up three tenths from 6.6% in January.

Job gains were seen in wholesale and retail trade (+41k), transportation and warehousing (+30k) and information, culture and recreation (+25k). However, job losses were seen in construction (-15k).

Wage growth actually picked up in October with average hourly wages for employees up 3.5% versus a year ago, versus a 3.3% pace in September.

Key Implications

Canada's job market has hit a double, with solid back-to-back job growth in September and October. The labour market is proving a bit more resilient to trade tensions than we had expected, but October's data is not a home run. Zooming out, we see that the labour market has still softened through 2025 along a number of dimensions. Even with tighter immigration policy reducing labour force gains, the unemployment rate has risen, and wage pressures have cooled relative to a year ago.

This report will make the Bank of Canada more comfortable to sit on the sidelines and let the 275 basis points of rate cuts in this cycle work their way through the economy. While this report shows some resilience in Canada's labour market, it is not strength. Overall job market conditions remain soft. The Bank expects reduced inflation pressures from a weak domestic economy to weigh against inflation pressures from to U.S. tariffs and restructuring global supply chains.

Canada’s labor market surprised to the upside once again in October, as employment jumped by 66.6k, far exceeding expectations of -4k decline. The robust increase followed an already strong 60.4k rise in September, signaling that continuous hiring momentum. Unemployment rate slipped from 7.1% to 6.9%, beating forecasts for 7.2%, while employment rate edged up from 60.6% to 60.8%.

However, the composition of the October gains was less encouraging. The headline strength was largely driven by part-time positions, which rose by 85k, while full-time employment contracted. On a more positive note, private-sector jobs increased by 73k, marking the first rise since June,.

Wage data also showed mild upward pressure, with average hourly pay up 3.5% yoy, accelerating from 3.3% yoy in September.

Full Canada's employment release here.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said in speech today that despite the lack of official data amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, private-sector indicators show the overall economy "has not changed much" in recent months. Growth continues at a moderate pace, while the labor market appears to be gradually cooling.

On inflation, Jefferson acknowledged that price growth remains elevated, but he attributed the "lack of progress in headline inflation" largely to tariff effects. He noted that underlying inflation measures continue to “make progress” toward target.

Jefferson reiterated his support for last week’s 25bps rate cut given the shift in risks toward weaker employment. He added that the policy stance remains somewhat restrictive but is now closer to neutral, making it sensible for the Fed to “proceed slowly” from here.

Looking ahead, Jefferson emphasized that future policy decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. With the government shutdown likely to continue suppressing key releases before December, "this approach is especially prudent".

Full speech of Fed's Jefferson here.

• The US risks losing tariff revenues.
• The American labour market is cooling down.
• EURUSD may rise to 1.21.
• The pound rose but remains under pressure.

The US dollar retreated against major world currencies after further evidence of labour market weakness and a decline in Donald Trump’s chances of winning in the Supreme Court to 20%, according to Polymarket. There is a lot at stake. The Treasury estimated budget revenues from tariffs at $750 billion by mid-2026. The president spoke of trillions of dollars in investment from other countries. The cancellation of tariffs does indeed risk being devastating for the US economy.

Donald Trump claims that his defeat in the Supreme Court will plunge the whole world into depression, and he is preparing plan B. After all, the tariffs were introduced to counter China’s restrictions on the export of rare earth elements.

Indeed, the removal of tariffs will accelerate both international trade and global GDP. The primary beneficiaries will be the currencies of exporting countries, including the euro. Unsurprisingly, Reuters experts predict that the EURUSD will strengthen to 1.18 and 1.20 in one and three months, respectively, and to 1.21 in six months.

The US economy is cooling even without the cancellation of tariffs. In the absence of official data from the BLS, investors have to pay attention to alternative sources of information. They signal structural weakness in the labour market. This will most likely force the Fed to continue cutting rates. According to Challenger, US companies planned to cut more than 150,000 jobs in October, the highest number for that month in 22 years. This is bad news for the dollar.

Even the pound, frightened by the BoE’s resumption of its monetary expansion cycle, as well as imminent tax increases and government spending cuts, managed to counterattack against the greenback. The Bank of England kept its repo rate at 4% by a vote of five to four. However, the word ‘caution’ was removed from the accompanying statement. In addition, the MPC stated that the recent 3.8% consumer inflation rate would be the peak. Andrew Bailey argues that inflation risks have declined and become more balanced.

The dovish rhetoric suggests a high probability of a cut in the repo rate in December. Coupled with concerns about the Labour Party’s draft budget presentation at the end of November, this will put pressure on the pound.

The short term price action in OIL suggests that the decline from 23rd June 2025 peak ended in 3 waves structure. Up from there, it has made a 5 waves bounce from the lows therefore we suspect that it can be correcting that cycle in simple zigzag correction into the path to the next sell zone. Now lets take a look at this hourly chart below:

OIL 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 11.07.2025

Above is the latest hourly view on OIL from 11.07.2025 Asia update. In which, the decline from $56.29 low has completed wave (W) of the decline from 6.23.2025 peak. Up from there, the bounce unfolded in 5 waves impulse sequence where wave ((i)) ended at $58.27 high. Wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 56.99 low, wave ((iii)) rallied towards $62.20 and wave ((iv)) ended at $61.21 low. Then a new high towards $62.59 high ended wave ((v)) thus completed wave A of a zigzag correction.

Down from there, OIL is correcting the cycle from 10.20.2025 low in wave B pullback. The internals of this ongoing pullback is taking place as double three correction where wave ((w)) ended in lesser degree 3 waves at $59.70 low. Then another 3 wave bounce ended wave ((x)) at $61.50 high. Since than, wave ((y)) is unfolding in another 3 waves. But it can reach $58.61- $56.82 area lower first before starting the C leg higher.

OIL Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8PN2rerR_w

The USD/JPY pair retreated to 153.10 on Friday, with the yen retaining a portion of its recent gains amid a flight to safety. A sharp uptick in stock market volatility, driven by concerns over a potential overvaluation of artificial intelligence stocks, prompted investors to seek refuge in traditional safe-haven assets, thereby supporting the Japanese currency.

The pair faced additional pressure from a broadly weaker US dollar. Signs of a cooling US labour market have reinforced market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Domestic data from Japan presented a mixed picture. Consumer spending in September rose by a modest 1.8%, following a 2.3% increase in August and falling short of the 2.5% forecast. While nominal wage growth accelerated to 1.9%, real household incomes continued their decline, falling 1.4% year-on-year. This marks the ninth consecutive month of decline in real incomes, highlighting the persistent squeeze on purchasing power.

In light of this, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank's wage growth forecast for 2026 will be a critical determinant for resuming rate hikes. For now, the BoJ maintains its accommodative stance, leaving monetary policy unchanged.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range around 153.33. We anticipate a near-term expansion of this range to the downside, targeting 152.20. Following this, the primary scenario involves an upward breakout, initiating a new bullish wave towards 155.70. An alternative downward breakout would signal a deeper correction towards 149.90 before any sustained recovery can begin. The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line below zero and pointing downward, confirming the current corrective momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is completing a corrective rise to test 153.50 from below. A tight consolidation range is forming around this level. We expect this range to break downwards initially, with a first target at 152.52. A rebound to 153.50 may follow. The broader trajectory hinges on the subsequent breakout. An upward breakout opens the path to 155.70, while a downward breakout would likely extend the correction towards 149.90. The Stochastic oscillator on the H1 offers a conflicting short-term signal. Its signal line is above 50 and rising towards 80, suggesting the potential for limited near-term upside before the next directional move.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is caught between a weaker US dollar and mixed domestic signals from Japan. The immediate driver is risk sentiment, which has provided the yen with temporary support. Technically, the pair is in a consolidation phase, with a near-term bias for a dip towards 152.20. The medium-term outlook, however, remains tentatively bullish, targeting 155.70, contingent on a successful upside breakout from the current range.