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Gold price corrected gains, traded below $4,000, and started a consolidation. Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $58.80.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a downside correction below $4,100 and $4,000 against the US Dollar.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $3,985 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices failed to clear the $61.20 region and started a fresh decline.
• There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $60.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed a base above $3,915. The price remained in a bullish zone and started an upward move within a range above $3,930.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $3,975. The bulls pushed the price above the $4,000 and $4,010 resistance levels. A high was formed at $4,019 before the price saw a pullback.

The price dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,928 swing low to the $4,019 high, and the RSI declined below 50. Initial support on the downside is near $3,985, a bullish trend line, and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The first major area of interest for the bulls is near the 50% Fib retracement at $3,975. If there is a downside break below $3,975, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward $3,950. Any more losses might push the price toward $3,930.

Immediate resistance is near $4,020. The next major hurdle for the bulls is $4,030. An upside break above $4,030 could send Gold price toward $4,045. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $4,090.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to clear $61.20 against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below $60.00.

The bears gained strength and pushed the price below $59.50 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested $58.80 and recently started a recovery wave. There was a move above $59.40, and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $61.21 swing high to the $58.80 low.

The bears are now active below $59.80. If there is a fresh increase, the price could face a barrier near $60.00. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $60.00.

The first major resistance is near the 76.4% Fib retracement at $60.65. The next stop for the bulls could be near $61.20. Any more gains might send the price toward $62.00. Conversely, the price might start another decline and test $59.40.

The next major area of interest for the bulls on the WTI crude oil chart is $58.80. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $57.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward $55.00.

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Markets

Core bonds gained ground in yesterday’s risk-off trading session with US Treasuries significantly outperforming German Bunds. The former erased outsized losses suffered on Wednesday. US yields fell by 5.8 bps to 8.3 bps on a daily basis with the belly of the curve outperforming the wings. Changes on the German yield curve range between 1.7 bps and 2.3 bps. On both occasions, limited available US eco data were at least partly responsible for the move. First following better ADP employment data and a firm services ISM, next after a significant surge in… October Challenger job cuts. A data point which normally doesn’t make the shortlist of market-movers. US companies announced 153k job cuts in October, driven by technology and warehousing sectors. Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the most since the pandemic. In the same period, US-based employers have announced the fewest hiring plans since 2011. Markets are starving for more official numbers as the US government this week passed the previous record for longest shutdown. The US Senate is expected to vote again today on a new package to end the deadlock but it’s far from certain that it already satisfies Democratic demands. According to the WSJ, the package combines a short-term spending measures with three full-year funding bills (legislative branch, agriculture and military construction & veteran affaires). It would reopen the government through mid-December or January. Today’s eco calendar would have centred around October payrolls if it weren’t for the shutdown. Now we’ll have to do with November University of Michigan consumer confidence. It sets the stage for more sentiment-driven trading. Risk sentiment is vulnerable to a more pronounced correction lower. We look out whether the (trade-weighted) dollar makes a new attempt to break key resistance at 100.26 (August high & 200d moving average) in such circumstances.

The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged yesterday at 4% in a 5-4 split vote. BoE governor Bailey who casted the tie-breaking vote, opened up for a rate cut as soon as December. Asked about his motives, he said that the (lower) September CPI was just one datapoint of the disinflation process being back on track. He also thinks that inflation peaked in September, implying that he’ll get the disinflation evidence he is looking for by December. Contrary to August when the onus was still on inflation, Bailey now thinks that risks (upside inflation vs downside growth/labour market) are now more in balance. It sets the stage for a Fed-like risk management exercise. The BoE-governor felt comfortable with the market implied rate path, landing the policy rate around 3.5%. On several occasions, he stressed that there was broad agreement – doves and hawks - that as the policy rate approached neutral, the contribution of monetary policy to underlying disinflation would become harder to discern, making the case for further policy easing more finely balanced. Sterling and broader UK markets weren’t really impacted by the BoE’s dovish hold with EUR/GBP still hovering near 0.88.

News & Views

Chinese October foreign trade data were substantially weaker than expected, both regarding exports and imports. Exports (in dollar terms) declined 1.1% Y/Y compared to still a 8.3% Y/Y gain in September. At the same time, import growth also slowed markedly from 7.4% Y/Y to 1 Y/Y. The trade surplus eased slightly to $90.07bn (from $90.45bn) while a modest further rise was expected. Both technical factors (high base effect from last year) and underlying momentum impacted the numbers. Exports to the US declined 25.2 % Y/Y. Exports to the EU grew a modest 0.9% down from +14.2% in September. Exports to ASEAN economies still rose 11.1% Y/Y, but that pace also slowed compared to September (15.8%). The data suggest that exports (mainly to economies outside the US) is receding as a driver to keep up economic growth. At the same time, the slow rise in imports hints at mediocre domestic demand. In its new five-year plan following the Central Committee’s Communist Party meeting, the government reinforced the case for private consumption to have a bigger role to support overall economic growth goring forward.

Just a day after a weak but better-than-expected ADP report weakened the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves’ hand, a disquieting report from Challenger came to the rescue of bond holders — showing that US companies announced the biggest job cuts in October since 2003, thanks to the AI revolution. The news isn’t great, fundamentally speaking — human jobs are being replaced by machines, just as they were back in 2003 when the internet wave hit. But the strong job-cuts figure revived hopes of a December Fed rate cut.

The 2-year Treasury yield, which best captures Fed expectations, tanked, and the dollar headed for its biggest drop in three weeks. The probability of a December rate cut recovered to 67%. Yet falling yields and a stronger case for the next Fed cut did little to revive risk appetite. Sellers returned after Wednesday’s brief pause, pushing the S&P 500 down more than 1% and the Nasdaq 100 almost 2% lower.

And beyond yields and macro narratives, Big Tech deserved to fall yesterday on two incredible pieces of news.

First, Elon Musk had his trillion-dollar compensation package approved by 75% of Tesla shareholders. The vote comes after Musk’s strong support for Trump and several global far-right figures, a stance that quickly cost him the White House’s goodwill following the US election — and tarnished Tesla’s reputation, especially among its customer base. Tesla’s car deliveries have plunged this year, and last quarter’s brief sales jump was mostly due to a rush of demand before EV tax credits expired — credits Trump refused to extend amid their falling-out.

The good news? Musk’s record-breaking pay package only materializes if Tesla’s valuation hits $8.5 trillion — a fantastical figure for a company already trading at a P/E above 300, mostly on dreams rather than fundamentals, and facing mounting competitive and leadership pressure. In other words, Tesla would need either divine intervention — or the US dollar to turn into confetti — to make that valuation and that pay package come true.

Then came the second bizarre headline: OpenAI. The company reportedly asked the US government for guarantees on its massive infrastructure spending — an investment of more than $1 trillion. OpenAI is an incredible company, no doubt, but asking for government backing at a time when markets already fear the circularity of AI money flows, the formation of an AI bubble and uncertainty around returns — well, that didn’t sit well with investors.

So yes, this week can’t end soon enough. Nasdaq futures are somehow in the green this morning, but Asian tech indices are closing the week deep in the red. The Kospi is set for its worst week since November, the Nikkei is testing the 50,000 support as SoftBank, closely tied to AI names, dropped another 7% today. And the Hang Seng is also down over 1% — though at least it offers some diversification for tech investors: it’s not caught in the OpenAI loop.

And that’s without mentioning that the US government just broke another record — the longest shutdown in American history, as politicians fail to agree on critical issues like extending medical care programs. Imagine if they actually ended up backing OpenAI’s trillion-dollar ambitions!!

So, between the government shutdown, bizarre corporate news, stretched valuations and an underlying economy showing cracks beneath the glossy growth data, investors are understandably hesitant to take on risk. Gold wavered this week but seems to be building a floor near $4’000 per ounce. But even gold is acting oddly amid the growing absurdity of the news flow.

Oil, meanwhile, slid below $60 per barrel as US crude inventories rose by more than 5 million barrels last week — a clear signal of slowing activity. Let’s see whether the dollar’s recent weakness will help revive appetite for black gold.

Speaking of the dollar — it’s losing steam, also helped by news - or lack thereof - from abroad. Japan’s finance minister pushed back against yen shorts this week, and France, for once, didn’t announce a new shutdown. The EURUSD bounced to 1.1552, and Cable climbed past 1.31 after the Bank of England (BoE) refrained from cutting rates yesterday — though just barely. The vote was split 5-4, tilting more dovish than expected, and markets now price a 55% chance of a December cut.

Still, as tax rises loom, BoE expectations will likely soften further, assuming inflation allows. Sterling’s post-BoE rebound is surprising — but probably more about the Fed’s dovish turn than confidence in the UK outlook. Yet, sterling rallies remain interesting sell opportunities into the Autumn Budget, both against the greenback and the euro. Cable remains stuck in its June-to-remember bearish trend below 1.33, while EURGBP seems destined to test the 0.90 mark.

In focus today

From the US, University of Michigan's November flash consumer sentiment survey is due for release. We will keep a close eye on the inflation expectations, which have remained clearly elevated this year. Note that the US October Jobs Report, which would normally be due for release today, is delayed by the ongoing government shutdown.

In Norway, today brings the wage figures for Q3, which will be interesting after they surprised on the upside in Q2 with an increase in annual growth to 5.3% and a full 6.3% including variable payments. The wage figures released so far in Q3 indicate that wage growth slowed to around 4.8% in Q3, which would mean that the risk of sustained high wage growth becomes a little less acute.

Have a great weekend!

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In the US, President Trump met leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to strengthen ties on critical minerals, energy, and trade. Agreements included mineral cooperation, Boeing sales, and Uzbekistan's USD 100bn US investment pledge, aiming to reduce reliance on Russia and China while boosting US influence in the region.

In Sweden, this morning, we already received figures from Svensk Mäklarstatistik that showed an unchanged number of transactions in October (seasonally adjusted). However, house prices rose for both villas and condominiums, well in line with expectations.

In China, exports surprised to the downside in October as it dropped into negative growth of -1.1% y/y (consensus 2.9% y/y) from 8.3% y/y in September. However, the decline may be due to the uncertainty around Trump's 100% tariff threat and extra holiday in October compared to last year. We expect exports to rebound in November as the US-China trade deal in late October led to a tariff decline of 10% to the US rather than the increase of 100%. It is also important for China, though, that the export engine keeps running as domestic demand is still struggling. So, it will be important to monitor.

What happened yesterday

In the US, the Challenger report showed further signs of a cooling labour market, with 153,074 job cuts in October - the highest for the month in over 20 years. Layoffs were largely driven by cost-cutting, AI restructuring, and overcapacity, particularly in the tech and warehousing sectors. Year-to-date hiring plans are also at their lowest since 2011. This contrasts with the stronger-than-expected ADP report earlier this week and, all else equal, supports a dovish stance for the Fed.

Also in the US, the White House announced a deal with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to lower the prices of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Zepbound. Prices will drop to USD 149-350 per month through the upcoming TrumpRx site, with Medicare co-pays capped at USD 50 starting mid-2026. In exchange, the companies gained tariff exemptions and accelerated FDA reviews for upcoming oral weight-loss pills.

In Sweden, October flash inflation figures surprised to the upside. Core inflation came in at 2.8% y/y (Danske: 2.65%, Cons.: 2.6%, RB: 2.56%) and CPIF at 3.1% (Danske: 2.95%, Cons.: 2.9%, RB: 2.66%), both exceeding the Riksbank's forecasts. Inflation details will be released on 13 November.

In Norway, Norges Bank held rates unchanged at yesterday's interim meeting, with no new policy signals and repeating the September monetary policy guidance. Markets interpreted the communication as slightly hawkish; however, we think history has shown that Norges Bank just wants to refrain from giving any news to markets at the interim meetings unless the pricing for the subsequent big meeting is off. We still expect the third 25bp cut in March 2026, followed by quarterly cuts through 2026 (June, September, December), bringing the key policy rate to 3.00% by end-26.

In the UK, the Bank of England kept the Bank Rate at 4.00% with a 5-4 vote split, showing a more dovish stance than expected. Further easing hinges on the continuance of the recent promising disinflation. We now forecast Bank rate cuts in December and April, ending the cycle at 3.50%. Read more in Bank of England Review - Dovish hold, 6 November.

In the euro area, retail sales declined 0.1% m/m in September, falling short of an expected rise of 0.2% m/m. Retail sales have thus declined in two consecutive months after a rise in the first half of the year, leaving it up 1.0% y/y. Continued low consumer confidence likely explains the weakness in spending despite solid household financials and rising real incomes. We expect consumption to gradually rise next year due to a strong labour market and real income gains, but low confidence should keep consumers quite cautious.

In Germany, industrial production rose 1.3% m/m in September (cons: 3.0%), with gains in automotive and electronics offset by weakness in mechanical engineering. This marks a rebound from August's sharp -4.3% decline led by the automotive sector, but production remains one percent lower than September last year.

Equities: US equities were sharply lower again, with S&P 500 selling off -1.1% and Nasdaq -1.9%, not far off intraday lows. Once again, this was a sell-off related to AI scepticism and not by pure macro worries - despite a surprising amount of layoff taking investors by surprise. However, looking at the sector composition, we can pinpoint weakness to AI, as AI heavy sectors like tech, consumer discretionary and communication were down 2-3%. Pure cyclicals like banks and industrials were down only -0.4% which would not have been the case if labour market fears triggered the selloff. US futures are little changed this morning.

Like earlier this week, the sell-off is spreading to the tech-heavy Asian markets, with Kospi and Nikkei down 2-3% and on track for a 5% correction so far this week. This setback is of course a challenge to our Asia overweight call (well, after months of tremendous outperformance). Our thesis was that Asian tech are the indirect winners on AI capex - so far so good - but to a much lower multiple and hence lower downside risk if and when the tide is turning. Yet so far, the Asian selloff has been more pronounced than we had expected. While Kospi is down 6% the last five trading days, S&P 500 is only down by half.

FI and FX: GBP rose vis-à-vis rest of G10, but less so vis-à-vis EUR after BoE kept rates unchanged yesterday after some speculation it would cut rates. Norges Bank also kept rates unchanged, which was widely expected. EUR/NOK rose, but that was likely on the back of the sour risk sentiment. EUR/USD also rose yesterday. A rebound seemed on the cards following the recent sell-off as the US government shutdown drags on. Bond yields dropped - most in the US - as equities fell.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 200.49; (P) 200.94; (R1) 201.56; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral, and risk will stay on the downside as long as 203.24 resistance holds. Below 199.04 will resume the fall from 205.30 to 194.47 cluster (38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 205.30 at 197.29). Sustained break of 197.29/47 should confirm near term reversal, and target 61.8% retracement 192.35 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 197.47 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 176.30; (P) 176.76; (R1) 177.24; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral at this point. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 178.80 short term top holds. Below 175.67 will target 55 D EMA (now at 174.99). Sustained break there will should confirm that EUR/JPY is correcting whole rise from 154.87, and target 169.69 cluster (38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 178.80 at 169.69).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Firm break of 174.80 support will suggests that it has turned into consolidations again. But still, outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 167.87) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8778; (P) 0.8799; (R1) 0.8810; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral again with current retreat. On the upside, above 0.8828 will resume the rally from 0.8221 to 0.8867 fibonacci level. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, decisive break of 0.8761 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8708).

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Firm break of 0.8654 support will be the first sign that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7700; (P) 1.7775; (R1) 1.7896; More...

EUR/AUD's break of 1.7813 resistance dampen the original bearish view. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.8160 resistance first. On the downside, though, break of 1.7561 will resume the fall from 1.8160 to 1.7254 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7406) will suggest that it's correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound form 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9302; (P) 0.9311; (R1) 0.9320; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains mildly on this point. Rebound from 0.9208 short term bottom would target 0.9371 resistance first. Firm break there will target 0.9452 next. On the downside, below 0.9283 minor support will turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9386). Firm break of 0.9204 will resume the whole down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Break of 0.9452 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1508; (P) 1.1530; (R1) 1.1569; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations continues. Further decline is expected as long as 1.1727 resistance holds. Below 1.1467 will extend the fall from 1.1917 to 100% projection of 1.1917 to 1.1540 from 1.1727 at 1.1350. Decisive break there would prompt downside acceleration to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1306) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep outlook bearish.