Sample Category Title

Yesterday's session offered quite a positive rewind after what had been a rough start to the month.

The powerful uptrends are still technically dominant in the global stocks' impressive yearly explosion, but ever since their first appearance at the big surprise in the August NFP, it seems that sellers are trying to make a decisive appearance again.

The underlying technical background for equities has largely stayed positive: strong fundamental value underpinned by roughly 80% of reporting US firms showing growth, combined with a projected dovish path from the Fed while the economy stands solid, had fueled exactly what the bulls needed to close last month at new highs.

But the relentless march to consistent new record levels keeps raising the same critical question: Are stock valuations simply too high now?

Stock Markets are closing today's session at their lows and at key inflexion points for future action.

US Equity heatmap – November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Federal Reserve's most recent not-so-dovish return—delivered during what was still technically a rate cut—appears to have finally started to scare highly leveraged participants. In response, traders are now aggressively taking profit on this uncertainty.

Some analysts also warn of a rally lacking breadth (leaders bring the market up while the others lag), AI and financial leaders are issuing public warnings and there are even mentions of an Hindenburg Omen (although the accuracy of such signal has reduced as of late).

One thing is for sure: Volatility is going to stay elevated, and this is generally a good thing for traders! (Less for investors)

Let's have a closer look at intraday charts for all major stock indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, to gauge the immediate momentum.

Dow Jones 2H Chart and technical levels

Dow Jones 2H Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Our past-day analysis looked at the mini-trendline which needed to hold for bullish prospects.

But the Dow could not hold the wave of profit-taking which took the index to retest the September 23 previous record (46,794 on the CFD – 46,714 on the actual Index).

A close below this key level may bring further continuation, as the RSI momentum consistently grinds lower.

On the brighter side, staying above the 45,000 level – Key for a Market barometer – maintains the higher timeframe bullish picture.

Dow Jones technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Current All-time high 48,090
• 4H MA 50 and resistance at 47,500
• ATH Resistance Zone 47,900 to 48,100
• post-FOMC highs resistance zone around 46,400 (immediately testing)

Support Levels

• Short timeframe pivot 47,000 to 47,200
• 46,400 major support
• 46,000 higher timeframe Pivot now support
• 45,000 psychological level
• 44,400 to 44,500

Nasdaq 2H Chart and levels

Nasdaq 2H Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The current 4% correction from the 26,200 All-time Highs is evolving in a small downward channel which contains both buying and selling within.

Sellers are now reaching the lower bound of the May upward channel, a key high timeframe technical aspect to keep an eye on.

A rebound here (around 25,000) may be bringing some dip-buying opportunities, however, a break and close below could also bring more selling (as higher timeframes show overbought signs).

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)
• All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300
• Intermediate resistance and 4H MA 50 25,700 to 25,850
• Mini-resistance at 25,400 Gap and MA 200
• Session highs 25,730 and MA 50

Support Levels

• Current Pivot 25,050 to 25,200 (Tuesday lows 25,186)
• 24,500 intermediate support
• October lows 23,997
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support
• Session Lows 25,110

S&P 500 2H Chart and level

S&P 500 2H Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Down close to 1% on the session as we speak, the index representing the 500 best US firms is not resisting to the pressure.

Yesterday's analysis indentified a topline that acted as fuel for profit-taking with the confluence of the 50-period Moving average (6,811).

Watch the psychological, round levels:

A weekly close above 6,800 should act as a positive levy for continuation.

Else, below 6,700, a larger pullback could be starting.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 6,930 (current All Time-Highs)
• ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930
• Intermediate resistance 6,830 to 6,855
• Daily highs 6,796

Support Levels

• 6,707 session lows
• Pivot and MA 200 6,720 to 6,750 (testing)
• 6,680 to 6,700 support
• 6,570 to 6,600 Key support
• 6,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH now Support (4H MA 200 Confluence)

PS: The Fear and Greed Index indicates Extreme fear, but with prices less than 5% from all-time highs, it doesn't look like things are quite there yet.

Safe Trades!

USD/JPY, arguably the most volatile FX currency pair, has certainly held its reputation this year with a constant flurry of uptrends and downtrends.

The first half of the year, demarcated by widespread dollar-selling, took the pair to lows not seen since September 2024 at 139.20.

However, a Liberation Day bottom in the dollar followed by a prolonged multi-month range led to a huge, decisive rebound in the pair.

Fundamentally, the still large yield differential—between the near-zero 0.50% in Japan and the persistently above 4% for the US 10-year yield—remained a fundamental boost underpinning demand for the US Dollar against the Yen.

This phenomenon significantly accelerated after Takaichi Sanae's appointment as Japan's Prime Minister.

As a notable fiscal dove following the ultra-loose policies of former PM Shinzo Abe to bolster Japanese economic growth, the Yen could not resist the renewed pressure.

After the election, USD/JPY jumped 1600 pips in a breakout gap and kept on going to the recent 154.50 highs, 4.70% above the October open.

Only recently, interesting technical developments may have marked a new intermediate top.

A bearish daily divergence is helping mean-reversion selling in the current risk-off session.

Explore its impact through our mulit-timeframe analysis of the FX pair.

USD/JPY multi-timeframe technical analysis

Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The pair broke out far above its slower moving-averages but held rebounded several times on its 20-Day Moving Average (currently at 152.420) key technical pattern to monitor for immediate trends.

The new month may have marked the end of the ongoing rally however with the pair's buying momentum regressing from overbought levels; the Daily RSI even shows a Daily divergence - a typical sign of trend exhaustions.

Bearish divergences happen when new highs in price are not followed by new highs in momentum (or buyer strength) and the inverse can happen for a bullish divergence.

Such breakouts may not immediately be followed with a reversal, but the recent risk-off markets (Equities and Cryptos selling) seen since the middle of last month may provide a boost to the Yen.

Let's take a closer look.

USD/JPY 4H Chart and technical levels

USD/JPY 4H Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView

USD/JPY technical levels of interest:

Support Levels:

• Shorter timeframe momentum pivot 152.00 to 152.50
• 151.50 Oct 28 rebound (minor support)
• July 150.00 to 150.90 support
• May Range Extremes 148.50 to 149.00

Resistance Levels:

• Recent highs 154.50
• Daily Resistance at February 2025 highs 154.00 to 155.00
• 4H MA 50 at 153.40
• 156.00 upside resistance

USD/JPY 1H Chart

USD/JPY 1H Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The current move has been one-sided for mean-reversion sellers taking the pair to a break of its ascending wedge.

An interesting test of the 153.00 handle, right around the current session lows, should offer a key mark to follow:

• A daily close below could prompt further selling
• A rebound from here may lead to a break-retest of the wedge.
• If buyers step again above 153.70 (look for a 4H candle close), a re-entry in the uptrend keeps high probability

Safe Trades!

Cryptocurrencies have held their record prices and valuations in a gigantic 2025 rebound.

The outstanding run in digital money has been bolstered by much better regulation and significant dollar diversification, with sanctions further accelerating the need for different means of transacting.

Helping consistent stablecoin growth, de-globalization trends are playing their part for the general Crypto market growth.

Stablecoin growth in 2025 from $200B to close to $300B – Source: Coingecko

This has become increasingly important as tariffs hurt US trade, international SWIFT usage faces scrutiny, and sanctions are bypassed by major players like Russia and China, particularly in Asia.

Nonetheless, despite resilient Bitcoin prices, the world's largest crypto has started to show some warning signs that it's jaw-dropping rise isn't as invincible.

A dip right below the $100,000 psychological mark just last week follows a mid-October flash crash that had erased above $600B of valuation in one day (before a fast recovery).

Unfortunately for digital currency aficionados, only 15 days have seen upticks in cryptos in the past month with sellers now in short-term control.

Daily overview of the Crypto Market, November 6, 2025 – Source: Finviz

Now moving in mildly corrective sequences, major altcoins like Solana and ETH have stopped their fulgurant ascent and are beginning to retest lower levels.

The latest Trump-Xi meeting has also put back international relations back on the table, which have hurt gold, also performing strongly in 2025.

This has led to widespread profit-taking, which is clearly visible in the Crypto total market cap, which has fallen by 20% from its record highs and now holds below its December 2024 previous record.

Total Crypto Market Cap, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The other side of the coin can offer the view that the sudden rise in cryptos haven't many retracements if any.

Retracements are typically good for consolidating value in any markets – But avoiding a bear market remains essential for future growth prospects.

Dip-buying Opportunity or trap? Let's find out through a multi-timeframe analysis of the top 1 crypto.

Bitcoin multi-timeframe technical analysis

Daily Chart

Bitcoin Daily Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Bitcoin has failed to hold its $106,000 to $108,000 consolidation at its precedingly major support.

The first crack of support happened through the week following the flash crash, but the consequent rebound formed a bull trap.

Shortly after, a retest of the $116,000 level brought sellers to complete a lower high sequence.

The $100,000 still offers a tenace look for the crypto market and stays a barometer for sentiment.

Daily closes above and below will be interesting to watch.

While prices are resiliently holding around the 200-Day MA ($102,700), let's take a closer look.

4H Chart and technical levels

Bitcoin 4H Chart, November 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Buyers are stepping in to hold right above the $100,000 Main Support Zone.

Now evolving in a descending channel, reactions to its lows will be key:

• A break below the channel should trigger seller acceleration to the $93,000 Support
• On the other hand, staying above $100,000 (watch for the weekly close) favors a rebound
• owards the Pivot zone (in confluence with the 50-period MA - $107,300)

Levels of interest for BTC trading:

Support Levels:

• $99,000 to $100,000 Main Support
• $93,000 mini-support
• $85,000 mid-term Support (+/- $1,500)
• $75,000 Key long-term support

Resistance Levels:

• Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000
• Current all-time high $126,250
• $116,000 to $118,000 Resistance
• Major Support Zone–Now Pivot previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000 (and 4H MA 50)

Safe Trades!

Cable jumped above 1.31 mark after BOE left rates unchanged as widely expected, but trimmed gains on signals that the central bank could cut in December policy meeting, which comes after government’s budget (Nov 26) and releases of inflation reports for October and November, that would provide more information to policymakers.

Bounce from multi-month lows (1.3009 double-bottom, after broader bears faced strong headwinds on approach to psychological 1.30 support), extended into second straight day, but reached so far only the first barrier at 1.3118 (Fibo 23.6% of 1.3471/1.3009), leaving more significant barriers at 1.3170/86, out of reach.

This raise worries about limited recovery, before bears regain control again for fresh attack at 1.30 pivot.

Technical picture on daily chart remains bearish, with recent formation of 10/200DMA death cross and converging 20/200DMA’s on track to form another one, adding to negative outlook, as 14-d momentum (although turning up) is still deeply in negative territory, although RSI emerging from oversold zone, partially offsetting negative signal.

Extended upticks should be capped under 1.3186 Fibo barrier, to mark a healthy correction before larger downtrend resumes.

Alternatively, stronger acceleration higher and violation of 1.3240/60 (50% retracement / 200DMA) would sideline bears and open way for potential stronger recovery.

Res: 1.3143; 1.3186;1.3218; 1.3240
Sup: 1.3042; 1.3000; 1.2948; 1.2810

USDCHF: ⬇️ Sell

•  USDCHF reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to support level 0.8000

USDCHF currency pair recently reversed from the resistance area between the resistance level 0.810 (former strong support from April and June, which has been reversing the price from August) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

This resistance area was further strengthened by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from May.

Given the clear daily downtrend, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to fall to the next round support level 0.8000.

EURCAD: ⬆️ Buy

• EURCAD reversed from support area
•  Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6385

EURCAD currency pair recently reversed from the support area between the key support level 1.6160 ( which has been reversing the price from the middle of September), lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily up channel from May.

The upward reversal from the support area stopped the impulse c-wave of the earlier ABC correction (ii) from the middle of October.

Given the clear daily uptrend the oversold daily Stochastic indicator, EURCAD cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.6385 (which stopped earlier waves iii and v).

• The Bank of England kept the Bank Rate at 4.00%.
• The vote split was 5-4 in favour of hold, more dovish than expected.
• The potential of further easing hinges a lot on the continuance of the recent promising disinflation.
• The market reacted by trading Gilt yields a bit lower and EUR/GBP higher, although the latter move faded a bit.

The Bank of England (BoE) kept the Bank rate at 4.00% against our expectation but in line with market pricing. The vote split was 5-4 (keep vs. cut), which was more dovish than expected, though. Deputy governors Ramsden and Breeden joined Taylor and Dhingra in the camp voting for cut while Governor Bailey casted his deciding vote for keep with the view: "Rather than cutting Bank Rate now, I would prefer to wait and see if the durability in disinflation is confirmed in upcoming economic developments this year".

Thus, Bailey looks just one encouraging inflation print away from voting for another cut. Listening in on the press conference, second round effects on inflation were mentioned several times, though, and we do not think Bailey sounds like someone ready to cut at two meetings back-to-back as monetary restrictiveness is reduced further. New projections from the BoE have unemployment slightly higher at 5.0% in 2025/2026 and inflation slightly lower, which does open for more easing. The wording of the BoE's guidance to investors was shortened significantly but the message is unchanged. "The extent of further reductions will therefore depend on the evolution of the outlook for inflation".

BoE call. We now expect the BoE to deliver the next cut in the Bank Rate in December, where we also think fresh government spending cuts will call for further easing. We think a majority in the MPC will be ready to cut unless inflation spikes again. We kick the final rate cut further down the road. As monetary restrictiveness falls, we think the bar will increase for the following rate cut. Thus, we expect the April meeting to conclude the easing cycle with the Bank Rate at 3.50%. The Autumn Statement is a big joker in the BoE outlook, though, see also Research UK - Autumn Statement will be key for UK markets.

Market reaction. Gilt yields traded a couple of basis points lower and EUR/GBP higher on the announcement, with the market putting emphasis on the close vote split indicating more easing likely around the corner. We expect EUR/GBP to trend higher the coming year, targeting the cross at 0.89 in 6-12 months.

Markets

The Bank of England kept the policy rate unchanged at 4% but hinted at a move soon, as soon as December and no later than February 2026. Risks to inflation have become more balanced, the statement now reads, and “The Bank rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path” if disinflation progress continues. That’s less strict than the “gradual and careful” approach of September. In the split 5-4 outcome, governor Bailey was the swing vote. Four members in the group of five placed greater weight on the risk of inflation persistence, particularly through wages. Bailey as the fifth and decisive member was less hawkish. In the first-ever published rationale underpinning their views, Bailey said he finds the mechanisms underlying upside risks less convincing than those underlying the downside but saw value in waiting for more evidence of disinflation to pick up. The members voting for a cut noted the economic slack and a materially deteriorating labour market. The policy statement notes that CPI is expected to have peaked in September (3.8%). The base effects, one-off factors and increases in administered prices that caused the CPI increase through 2025 so far should fade out. Using a similar market-implied Bank Rate to the one used in the August projections – 3.5% by 2026Q3 and of which Bailey said is a fair description of his position – inflation is anticipated to decline to 2.5% by 2026Q4 and to the 2% target from 2027Q2 on. Economic growth was revised up slightly higher for 2026 (1.4%) and 2027 (1.7%) but remains below potential. The unemployment rate is expected to pick up to 5.1% by mid-2026, up from 4.8% currently.

Sterling and UK yields fell after the decision, with some caught off guard by the growing possibility of a December cut. GBP tried to recover but a fragile risk environment stands in the way. EUR/GBP remains north of 0.88. Gilt yields ease 3.5 bps at the front with a December cut now given a two-in-three chance. We think that’s an underestimation given that the government’s November 26 budget is probably going to be a belt-tightening one, further suppressing an already weak economy. Moves in other markets show UST outperformance vs Bunds. Second-tier and rarely-looked-at data from a private outplacement firm showed the most announced job cuts for any October of the last >20 years. It triggered yield declines of up to 6.5 bps at the front, showing just how much markets are eager for some input that polls the US’ economic health. German rates are down 2 bps. Yield differentials favour EUR/USD with the pair nudging higher to 1.152 but the risk environment is capping gains here as well. DXY’s failed adventure north of the 100 barrier is followed by some minor declines to 99.77 currently. Stocks lose modest ground.

News & Views

The Norwegian central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4% today. The Committee's assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy since the monetary policy meeting in September. If the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year. Governor Wolden Bache added that the Norges Bank isn’t in a hurry to reduce the policy rate though as the job of tackling inflation has not been fully completed. Inflation is still above target, and underlying inflation has been close to 3% for some time. "The outlook suggests that inflation will return to target without a large increase in unemployment," Wolden Bache said, adding that excessively tight monetary policy could restrain economic activity. The September outlook envisioned one rate cut per year in the coming three years. EUR/NOK is going nowhere today at 11.73. Norwegian money markets attach a 45% probability that the next policy rate cut comes by the end of Q1 2026.

The Czech National Bank left its policy rate stable at 3.5% and expects broad stability in the next quarters in light of overall inflationary risks. These stretch from a possible acceleration of money supply growth in the economy due to household loans and growth in total public sector spending over continued rapid wage growth in combination with ongoing tension in the labour market to rising food prices and the persistent inflation in services. A relatively tight policy is still needed even if the CNB slightly lowered CPI forecasts for this year and next, respectively from 2.6% to 2.5% and from 2.3% to 2.2%. The central bank also lowered this year’s growth outlook from 2.6% to 2.3%. The Czech koruna in unnerved by the expected outcome, changing hands at EUR/CZK 24.34.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern that the ongoing data blackout caused by the government shutdown could hinder the Fed’s ability to judge inflation accurately. Speaking on CNBC, he said the lack of near-term readings makes him “more uneasy” about continuing with interest-rate cuts.

“If there are problems developing on the inflation side, it’s going to be a fair amount of time before we see that," he warned.

Even so, Goolsbee clarified that he remains broadly dovish in the medium term, saying he is “not hawkish on interest rates” and expects the long-run neutral rate to be “a fair bit below” current policy levels.

On the economy, Goolsbee said the labor market continues to show “mild cooling”, describing conditions as consistent with a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp correction.