Sample Category Title

GBP/USD fell further to 1.3008 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3247 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.3008 will target 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3185) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2780) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.3051 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.

USD/CHF rose to 0.8123 last week but retreated after hitting 100% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7872 at 0.8119. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, decisive break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8007) will argue that the corrective bounce from 0.7828 has completed and bring retest of this low. ON the upside, above 0.8123 will resume the rebound to 138.2% projection at 0.8213.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD fell to as low as 0.6457 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.6457 will target 0.6413 cluster (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403). Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, break of 0.6616 will bring retest of 0.6706 high instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Break of 0.6413 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and solidify this bearish case. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 0.6941 will argue that the third leg has already started back to 0.8006.

USD/CAD rose further to 1.4139 last week but retreated sharply since then. The break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.4054) suggests that a short term top was already formed. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 1.3886 support. On the upside, break of 1.4139 will resume the rally from 1.3538 to 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4312.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), with rise from 1.3538 as the second leg. A third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3543) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.90567 (2007 low) should still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction.

GBP/JPY edged lower to 199.04 again last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. For now, the structure of the fall from 205.30 suggests that it's only a corrective move. Break of 204.22 resistance will argue that larger rise from 184.53 is ready to resume through 205.30. However, below 199.04 will target 197.47 cluster (38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 205.30 at 197.29).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 197.47 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.

In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.

EUR/JPY's retreat from 178.80 extended lower last week but recovered after hitting 175.67. Initial bias stays neutral this week and risk will remain mildly on the downside as long as 178.80 resistance holds. Break of 175.67 will target 55 D EMA (now at 175.00). Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that EUR/JPY is correcting whole rise from 154.87, and target 169.69 cluster (38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 178.80 at 169.69). Nevertheless, firm break of 178.80 will resume the long term up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, firm break of 174.80 support will suggests that it has turned into consolidations first. But still, outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 168.20) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 154.77 support holds.

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8828 last week but retreated again. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8761 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.8828 will resume the whole rally from 0.8221 and target 0.8867 fibonacci level. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, decisive break of 0.8761 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8708).

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Firm break of 0.8654 support will be the first sign that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's strong rebound from 1.7571 last week dampened the original bearish view. Fall from 1.8160 is likely just part of the sideway pattern from 1.8155. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 1.8160 first. On the downside, however, break of 1.7561 will revive the bearish case that corrective pattern from 1.8554 is in the third leg, and target 1.7245 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7406) will suggest that it's correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound form 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6501) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.

EUR/CHF's extended rebound last week argues that fall from 0.9452 has completed at 0.9208. But as a temporary top was formed at 0.9325, initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.9325 will target 0.9371 resistance. Break there will pave the way back to 0.9452 resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.9257 will revive near term bearishness, and bring retest of 0.9204/8 support zone.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9383). Firm break of 0.9204 will resume the whole down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. However, break of 0.9452 resistance will now be the first sign of medium term bottoming.

In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in progress in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9820) holds.

Week in review – Markets are starting to get worried from a prolonged shutdown

Navigating through the headlines can be difficult in Markets.

Even when Stock indices break new records week after week, negative headlines can lead readers to adopt a more pessimistic view compared to how things really are – this explains, in part, the “Buy the rumours, Sell the news” adage.

However, when Stock indices start to reverse sharply, headlines begin to have a snowball effect.

November trading began at the beginning of this week and brought with it some winter headwinds:

Almost all global stock indices are lower, and cryptocurrencies have taken a huge hit, leaving investors scratching their heads to know where to put their money.

To accompany these flows, tons of speeches and headlines on high AI stock valuation and spendings start to send vibes of a lack of confidence (and this could also be seen in the latest University of Michigan survey)

As the week comes to an end, a rough beginning of the month for safe-havens, particularly metals, began to materialize in somewhat of a new rebound – Gold is back above $4,000.

US Treasuries are also following suit, closing the week at their highs.

A more hawkish FedSpeak (following Powell's October meeting tone) throughout the week started to cast doubts on a December meeting cut, further hurting Market optimism.

The US Shutdown was not significantly impact markets throughout the past month, but as more governmental services and sectors are affected, with even flight numbers being reduced, this is changing.

US Vice President JD Vance has even sent out warnings on the consequences of the prolonged shutdown.

All of these catalysts begin to have an impact on sentiment in the broader context.

Weekly performance from different asset classes

Weekly Asset Performance, November 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Magnitude of movements for cryptocurrencies are usually higher, but this weekly asset performance chart shows well how risk assets took a hit this week.

More defensive stock indices like the Dow Jones finishes down 1.50%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq down 3.56%, dragged down further by pessimistic warnings from the Nvidia CEO or OpenAI's CFO.

At the extreme of the risk and volatility spectrum, cryptocurrencies took a big slap in the face.

Bitcoin, the most stable, lost a bit more than 5% in value – just hanging above the $100,000 mark – while Ethereum, Solana and other altcoins lost a minimum of 10% (and much more).

The Week Ahead – A government reopening?

The week was one of a risk-appetite that reduced drastically.

Nonetheless, some more vodish pricings and hopes for a US government reopening helped equities to catch around the same time that European indices closed.

Market-odds of the timing for a US government reopening – Polymarket – November 7, 2025

Asia Pacific Markets – Australian Employment, more Chinese production data and NZ inflation expectations

AUD traders will have to stay sharp with Australian data largely taking the front-scene. Monday will begin with Consumer confidence data but the key really is the Australian Employment data, releasing on Wednesday evening (20:30).

The bar is high for the number, with Australia maintaining a strong look throughout the year but has started to show a few signs of slowing.

For those keeping an eye on China (particularly after the disastrous trade numbers released yesterday), APAC traders will want to monitor the Industrial production and retail sales number to see if the PBoC has more room for stimulus (typically a booster for AUD and NZD).

Kiwi data is also not to be forgotten with their very key RBNZ inflation expectations numbers also releasing Monday night at 20:30 (ET).

US, Europe and UK Markets – European & UK Employment with still nothing to see in the US

As the Bureau of Labor Statistics is still closed until further notice and no private data is on the watch next week, traders will have to be a bit more patient to get an idea of the state of the US Economy.

However, there is still work to do, particularly for those interested in European and UK dynamics.

Starting Tuesday, GBP traders will welcome the UK employment (releasing at 3:00 A.M on Tuesday) which will once again have a big influence on the next "live" Bank of England meeting on December 18th (live meaning that the decision should largely depend on upcoming data).

Major UK data continues on Thursday, same time, with the release of the Monthly and Quarterly GDP data.

The EU will also publish their own Employment and GDP figures on Friday at 6:00 A.M. (ET).

Of course, Euro traders will have to log in for the German CPI released in the Wednesday overnight session.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only)

Except for a miracle, don't hope too much for the release of US Data like CPI and PPi this week (they will hopefully get published at some point towards the end of this month or the next).

Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!