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USDCAD had an aggressive bullish rally on Thursday, moving towards the 1.2700 psychological number, but the Canadian employment report later in the day may strengthen the loonie. The pair is flirting with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and is failing to continue the buying interest.

Technically, the MACD oscillator is gaining momentum above its trigger line and below the zero level, while the RSI is appearing flat near the neutral threshold of 50. In trend indicators, the 20- and the 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs) posted a bearish crossover in the previous sessions, mirroring the downside move from the 18-month peak of 1.2960.

Should the pair stretch north, the 40-day SMA at 1.2760 could provide immediate resistance before the pair touches the 1.2890 barrier. A significant step higher could bring the bullish sentiment back into play, sending the price probably towards the 1.2960 barrier.

On the flip side, the 200-day SMA currently at 1.2655 may halt the bearish movements, while even lower, it may meet the 1.2517 support. If traders continue to sell the pair, the price could hit the 1.2450-1.2400 region ahead of 1.2285.

To sum up, the market is expected to hold bullish in the very short-term if the pair jumps above the short-term SMAs. However, in the broader picture, the outlook is still neutral-to-bullish.

GBPJPY is setting the stage for its next bearish phase after its latest explosive rally topped at a new six-year high of 168.70 and near April’s peak.

The RSI is also pivoting near its 70 overbought mark, while the Stochastics are reversing southwards within the overbought zone too, suggesting that the bull run is overextended and it’s time for a downside correction. It’s worthy to note that the price has been trading along the upper Bollinger band since the start of the month; therefore, a downside move can be technically justified.

Whether the current weakness develops into anything more than a normal bearish correction in an uptrend remains to be seen. Traders are currently having their eye on the nearby barrier of 166.88. If that base cracks, the decline could continue towards the 23.6% Fibonacci of the 155.58 – 168.70 upleg at 165.55. Falling lower, the price may next visit the 38.2% Fibonacci of 163.65, while a decisive close below the 50% Fibonacci of 162.11, where the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are placed, would eliminate confidence on the latest steep upturn.

Alternatively, if selling tendencies fade immediately around 166.88, buyers may push harder for a break above the 168.70 ceiling, and particularly above the 169.75 barricade taken from January-February 2016. If that turns out to be the case, the rally may speed up to the 173.50 – 175.00 restrictive region last seen during the 2013 – 2016 period.

In short, GBPJPY is expected to give up some of its recent impressive gains in the coming sessions. A clear close below 166.80 may activate fresh selling pressures.

BTCUSD has been trading within a tight range during the past month, unable to adopt a clear direction. However, the descending 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are painting a gloomy technical picture for the cryptocurrency.

The short-term oscillators also indicate a cautiously bearish near-term bias. Specifically, the RSI is dipping beneath its 50-neutral threshold, while the MACD histogram has crossed above its red signal line but remains in the negative territory.

Should selling interest intensify, 29,200 could act as the first line of defence. Diving beneath that region, the price could descend towards 27,950, which is the lower boundary of its recent sideways pattern. Failing to halt there, the 2022 low of 25,390 may cease any further declines.

In the positive scenario, bullish actions could propel the price towards the recent peak of $32,380. Conquering this barricade, the bulls might aim at the 36,630 barrier before the spotlight turns to the 40,000 psychological mark. Piercing through these levels, the 2022 peak of 48,200 could prove a tough obstacle for the price to overcome.

Overall, BTCUSD seems to be consolidating between the 29,000-31,000 range, while near-term risks are tilted to the downside. Therefore, a break beneath the 25,390 floor could signal the resumption of its long-term downtrend.

EUR/USD

On Thursday, the session started promisingly and, from the very beginning, the euro managed to rise to the key level of 1.0765. However, this level is the upper end of the range in which the currency pair has been locked in since the end of May. Right after ECB’s decision to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 0.00%, the bears attacked without delay. Their strength was so immense that they even managed to break the lower end of the range 1.0643 and the day ended in a new weekly bottom of 1.0617. The last day of the week is important for the single European currency, because traders expect CPI data from the United States at 13:30 GMT. If expectations for the inflation rising with 0.7% are confirmed, the dollar may continue to rise and the euro to move to the next support level 1.0545. The possibility of a weak dollar and the pair returning to the mentioned levels of the range should not be ruled out.

USD/JPY

In the early hours of Thursday, the yen peaked at 134.45 and began a correction, which with the opening of the European session continued to the key level of 133.16. There, the bulls in the dollar found support again and raised the currency pair back to the mentioned peak of 134.45. Whether the growth will continue and whether we will see a new weekly peak, depends on the traders’ reaction to the U.S. inflation data at 13:30 GMT. The opposite scenario and the deepening of the correction should not be ruled out as the levels of 132.33 may be reached again, if the reaction is negative.

GBP/USD

The sterling session was similar to the euro session, with an increase at the beginning of the day. The currency pair reached the support at 1.2557 and when the euro began to fall due to the rise of the dollar, the pound did not remain unaffected and headed down to the bottom of its weekly range of 1.2470. The bears’ momentum wasn’t enough to reach the support at 1.2470. Whether the growth of the dollar will continue and the bottom of the range will break, depends on whether the reaction of traders to the dollar will be positive, after the release of the U.S. CPI data at 15:30 EEST today. However, if they are disappointed, the bulls in the cable can take advantage of this and raise it to 1.2600.

EUGERMANY40

After reaching a peak of 14712 on Monday, EUGERMANY40 took a downward trend and each rise simply gives a good price for a new entry for the bears in the stock market. The session on Thursday started with a slight increase to 14420, but it was just a good price for new shorts. After ECB’s decision to keep the key interest rate unchanged, the index plunged, broke the level of 14237 and ended the day with a new bottom of 14111. This level is extremely important because it will either form a support zone, or may end the week below 14000.

US30

With the opening of the U.S. session on Thursday, the blue-chip index tried to bounce back to the prices it reached during the European session, namely 33120. However, the bears took complete control soon after the data regarding the unemployment claims at 13:30 GMT was worse than expected.. Тhis led to a decline in the price of the index and it broke two key levels along the way - 32775 and 32531. The day ended in red after a huge pressure and a drop of nearly $500. Whether prices around 32325 will support the index and bring it back depends on the U.S. inflation data at 15:30 EET on Friday. However, if traders accept them negatively, we may see a new weekly bottom at around 32000.

USDCHF ended wave (4) pullback at 0.954, and pair has now turned higher in wave (5). Pair still needs to break above the previous wave (3) high on 5/16/2022 high at 1.0064 to confirm the next leg higher has started. Internal subdivision of wave (5) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (4), wave (i) ended at 0.958 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 0.954. Pair then extends higher in wave (iii) towards 0.962 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 0.956. Final leg higher wave (v) ended at 0.9659 which completed wave ((i)).

Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 0.955 with internal subdivision as a double three. Pair then resumes higher in wave ((iii)) with 5 waves subdivision. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 0.964 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 0.96. Pair then resumed higher in wave (iii) towards 0.978, wave (iv) dips ended at 0.9711, and wave (v) of ((iii)) ended at 0.98. Pair then did a pullback in wave ((iv)) which ended at 0.9719. Near term, pair can see a few more upside before ending wave ((v)) and wave 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from 5/27/2022 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 0.954 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.

USDCHF 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

The Nasdaq 100 weakened after US jobless claims hit a five-month high. The index is struggling to hold onto its gains after it rose above the daily resistance at 12580. A drop below 12400, a former supply zone that has turned into a demand one, indicates a lack of commitment from the buy-side. A combination of profit-taking and fresh selling may depress the price action to the psychological level of 12000. 12650 is the closest resistance and 12920 a major ceiling before the rebound could make a comeback.

The euro soared after the ECB said it would kick off its rate hike cycle next month. The pair previously saw solid support at the double bottom at 1.4780. A break above 1.4910 has prompted sellers to cover their positions. The follow-up rally is a confirmation of a sustainable rebound. 1.5160 from the liquidation in late May is key resistance. Its breach could turn sentiment around in the medium-term and extend the reversal above 1.5280. In the meantime, the RSI’s overbought situation may cause a brief fallback towards 1.4890.

The US dollar bounces as traders reposition ahead of today’s CPI. On the daily chart, a break above the first resistance at 0.6550 and a MA cross suggest that the market mood may have brightened up. However, a pullback below 0.6420 has put short-term buyers under pressure. 0.6320 at the base of the initial breakout is the next level to gauge buying interest. An oversold RSI may trigger a ‘buy-the-dip’ behavior. But the bulls will need to lift offers at 0.6460 and then 0.6530 before the rally could be back on track.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 166.84; (P) 167.78; (R1) 168.87; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 168.67 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained above 162.88 minor support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 168.67 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 150.95 to 168.40 from 155.57 at 173.02.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.97; (P) 143.08; (R1) 143.80; More....

With a temporary top formed at 144.23, intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral for consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 139.99 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 144.23 will resumer larger up trend to 100% projection of 124.37 to 139.99 from 132.63 at 148.25.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Next target will be 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06. Firm break there will indicate upside acceleration and target 149.76 long term resistance (2014 high). In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 132.63 support holds, in case of deep pull back.