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Bitcoin was down 3.7% on Wednesday, ending the day near the $30.2K level, which it remains near on Thursday morning. The overall subdued sentiment towards cryptocurrencies coincided with a pullback in stock indices. However, the dynamics of the previous days suggest that this is more of a coincidence than a correlation.

Cryptocurrencies have entered a period of the most pronounced and prolonged lull since late 2020, as the total cryptocurrency cap hovers between $1.2 and $1.3 trillion for almost a month. This lull is also reducing trading volumes, as the entire cryptocurrency industry often attracts the attention of lovers of solid moves.

In the past 24 hours, Ethereum has lost 0.5%, hovering around $1800 at writing. Altcoins from the top 10 show small multidirectional movements from a 0.75% decline (BNB, Solana) to a 0.7% rise (Polkadot).

The cryptocurrency fear and greed index were down 6 points to 11 by Thursday and remains in “extreme fear”.

The nature of the cryptocurrency market, built on hype, convinces us that a lack of movement is the worst news for cryptocurrencies. Perhaps only strong moves can attract interest. Crypto traders anxiously recall the “crypto winter” of 2018. However, a crypto summer lull that started a month ago may not be any easier. It’s a worrying lull that risks quickly turning into a selloff. We still believe that the bear market for Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market has yet to play its final act, and that should be expected before the end of the year.

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor believes bitcoin will never fall to zero as international regulators look for ways to control crypto assets rather than impose a total ban on them.

Anne Boden, CEO of UK bank Starling, said cryptocurrencies are too often linked to fraud and money laundering, making them a threat to traditional payment systems.

PayPal said it would allow its customers to transfer BTC, ETH, BCH and LTC to external addresses, including exchanges and hardware wallets. Mining company Marathon Digital said that bitcoin miners do not incur losses even in a falling market, as the cost to mine 1 BTC is about $6,250.

WTI oil futures (July delivery) extended their series of higher highs up to $123.15 on Wednesday before easing a bit - the highest in three months - aiming to mark a fourth consecutive week of wins.

The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the previous downleg is currently capping upside moves at $122.30, though a bigger challenge is expected to be the crucial $124.70 bar, which the bulls could not successfully claim last March despite surging to 13-year highs.

Technically, upside pressures could dominate in the short term as the RSI maintains a clear positive trend well above its 50 neutral number, while the MACD has yet to show any sign of abating, remaining elevated within the positive region and above its red signal line. The former, though, is not far below its 70 overbought level, suggesting that any potential advances in the price could come at a softer pace.

Should the price successfully cross above the $124.70 barricade, the rally may initially pause within the $127.00 – $130.50 constraining zone, which was somewhat of a hurdle during the second half of 2008. Breaching that wall, the next resistance could develop near $139.00, while higher, the bulls will attempt to stretch the broad positive trend beyond the 2008 top of $147.27.

In the event the $122.30 level stands firm, the price could ease to test the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci of $118.32 and the red Tenkan-sen line at $117.00. Moving lower, the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) currently at $114.18 may attract some attention before the key 50% Fibonacci of $111.35 comes under examination. The 38.2% Fibonacci of $106.82, which is currently  intersecting the 50-day SMA, could be the next destination, while the ascending trendline drawn from the low of $62.25 will provide the last opportunity for a rebound before traders lose confidence on the seventh-month-old uptrend.

Summarizing, WTI oil futures look to have some bullish fuel in store, though only a sustainable extension above $124.54 would motivate fresh buying in the market. 

WTI crude finds support from tight spare capacity. A close above the recent peak at 119.20 has put the price action back on track after a short-lived retracement. The former resistance at 117.30 has turned into a support where trend followers are likely to place their bids. A surge above 123.00 would confirm that the path of least resistance is still up and may extend the rally to March’s high at 129.00. On the downside, 119.70 is the immediate support and 117.30 a second line of defence for the bulls.

The euro clawed back losses after solid GDP growth in the eurozone in Q1. On the daily chart, the pair is in an ascending triangle pattern, foreshadowing a breakout that would dictate the direction in the weeks to come. The pair’s choppy path may have shaken out some weak hands, but the latest retreat has found support in the demand zone (0.8490) over the 30-day moving average. The triple top at 0.8585 is a major resistance and its breach could end a four-week long consolidation and resume the rally towards 0.8660.

The US dollar recovered in anticipation of consumer price data on Friday. Medium-term sentiment remains upbeat and a break above 0.9760 may have put the greenback back on track as sellers rushed to cover their positions. The RSI’s overbought situation has briefly limited the upside but the bulls may see a pullback as an opportunity to accumulate. 0.9710 is the first support and 0.9600 an important level to keep the reversal intact. As the pair makes its way to parity once again, 0.9900 would be the next hurdle.

EUR/USD

The single European currency continued to move in the range between 1.0640 and 1.0750, but yesterday's trading session was more successful for the bulls as they tried to breach the closest resistance at 1.0746, which is the upper limit of the range. Their attempt to break through was unsuccessful, however, and they once more failed to come anywhere near the psychological resistance at 1.0800. If the bears manage to overcome the lower limit of the range at 1.0643, then it is possible that we could witness an attempt at overcoming the support at 1.0544. Important news for today, which will affect the currency pair, are the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (11:45 GMT), the follow-up press conference, when the ECB is expected to signal a rate hike in July, and the Initial Jobless Claims report (12:30 GMT).

USD/JPY

The Ninja rally continues in full force and it seems like there is nothing stopping the bulls from climbing all the way to the top. The next key resistance for traders would be the level of 135.00, a level that has not been reached for nearly 20 years. During today's trading session, the Japanese yen rose by almost a figure. However, if the bears manage to gain the upper hand, then they would probably have to breach the support at 133.00.

GBP/USD

The sterling continues to consolidate in the long-term range between 1.2400 and 1.265, as neither the bears nor the bulls have so far managed to gather enough momentum to breach the range. Breaking the upper limit for the bulls would mean that they will most likely have to deal with the resistance at 1.2770. On the other hand, if the bears manage to limit the sales to the point where they can breach the lower limit, then the next key support that needs to be overcome would be the level of 1.2370.

EUGERMANY40

Yesterday’s trading session for the German index can be described as successful for the bears, as during the early hours they managed to overcome the key support at 14580. At the time of writing the analysis, they are close to testing the next one at 14310, and if they manage to overcome it, then they would most likely reach the one at 14237 as well. Despite the negative sentiment, the bulls could still manage to gain enough momentum, but in order to do that, they would first have to deal with the crucial resistance at 14580. The European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (11:45 GMT) is expected to spark volatility as investors look forward to finding out when and by how much the central bank will raise the interest rates in order to combat the extremely high inflation.

US30

On the U.S. blue-chip front, the bears managed to reach the support at 32933. At the time of writing, they have already breached it and are gearing to move onto the next one at 32550. During this week, the news that are expected to affect the U.S. index the most are the Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 GMT; today) and the CPI report for the United States (12:30 GMT; Friday). If the news turns out to be positive for the world's strongest economy, then the bulls may strengthen their positions and even attempt to breach the resistance at 33450.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.28; (P) 167.91; (R1) 168.93; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with today's retreat. Some consolidations could be seen but downside should be contained above 162.88 minor support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 168.67 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 150.95 to 168.40 from 155.57 at 173.02.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.46; (P) 143.36; (R1) 144.77; More....

EUR/JPY retreats mildly but intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained break of 144.06 long term projection level could bring even further medium term upside acceleration. Next near term target is 100% projection of 124.37 to 139.99 from 132.63 at 148.25. On the downside, below 141.36 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Next target will be 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06. Firm break there will indicate upside acceleration and target 149.76 long term resistance (2014 high). In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 132.63 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8509; (P) 0.8537; (R1) 0.8577; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. With 0.8365 support intact, further rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 0.8617 will resume rise from 0.8201 medium term bottom to 0.8697 medium term fibonacci level. However, break of 0.8365 will dampen this bullish view, and turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.8201, on bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. Rise from there could either be a correction to the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high), or a medium term up trend itself. In either case, further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 0.9003.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4815; (P) 1.4869; (R1) 1.4955; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.4759 minor support will resume the decline from 1.5277 to 1.4597 support. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.5354 resistance and bring retest of 1.4138 low. However, on the upside, firm break of 1.4965 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5277 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.