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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3106; (P) 1.3136; (R1) 1.3174; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained trading below 1.3140 support should confirm completion of double top pattern (1.3787, 1.3725). Further decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.2744 next. On the upside break of 1.3247 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 1.3185) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099. Firm break there will confirm bearish reversal. In case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1513; (P) 1.1545; (R1) 1.1569; More…

EUR/USD's fall from 1.1917 continues today and 4H MACD suggests that downside momentum remains firm. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 100% projection of 1.1917 to 1.1540 from 1.1727 at 1.1350. Decisive break there would prompt downside acceleration to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, above 1.1576 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1306) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep outlook bearish.

Dollar climbed across the board today, defying dovish rhetoric from Fed Governor Stephen Miran. The greenback's resilience suggests that Miran's influence on expectations is limited, with investors noting that he represents the dovish edge of a divided policy spectrum.

The broader committee remains split. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid argued recently against imminent rate cuts, while Governor Christopher Waller has indicated more openness to easing. With such divergent signals, markets are reluctant to price in aggressive near-term action, instead waiting for the next set of meaningful data.

That makes this week’s private-sector reports — ISM Manufacturing and Services, along with ADP employment — particularly crucial. With the U.S. government still partially shut down and official data releases suspended, traders are relying on these indicators to gauge whether the economy retains its resilience or is slipping under the weight of high rates.

Also, with no consensus emerging, the Fed’s upcoming communications will be heavily scrutinized for any hint of a shift toward a clearer majority view.

In the next Asian session, attention is turning to the RBA’s policy decision. Aussie held firm as markets positioned for a hawkish hold following last week’s stronger-than-expected CPI. All of Australia’s Big Four banks now expect the RBA to remain on hold through year-end, with differing views on when cuts might resume.

ANZ and Westpac see February as a “plausible” but uncertain window, NAB projects a move in the June quarter, while Commonwealth Bank expects no further reductions in the foreseeable future. Bullock’s remarks will likely determine whether markets stick with these cautious timelines or push back expectations further.

In today’s currency markets, Dollar leads the pack, followed by Aussie and Sterling. The Swiss Franc lags behind, with Loonie and Euro also under pressure. Yen and Kiwi sit mid-field.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.03%. DAX is up 0.83%. CAC is down -0.09%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.021 at 4.429. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.025 at 2.660. Earlier in Asia, Japan was on holiday. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.97%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.55%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.35%.

Fed’s Miran warns policy too tight amid credit market stress

Fed Governor Stephen Miran cautioned that U.S. monetary policy may already be too restrictive, arguing that the neutral rate sits “quite a ways” below the current stance. Speaking with Bloomberg TV, Miran said his relatively sanguine view on inflation suggests there is “no reason for keeping policy as restrictive” .

Miran also highlighted emerging strains in credit markets as a warning sign that policy may have overshot. He noted that “a series of seemingly uncorrelated credit problems” surfacing across sectors indicates financial stress that was previously masked by strong headline data.

“The longer you keep policy restrictive, the more you run the risk that monetary policy itself causes a downturn,” Miran warned.

UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.7, Budget may deepen structural strain

UK manufacturing showed tentative signs of life in October, with the final S&P Global PMI rising to 49.7 from September’s 46.2. However, the improvement remains fragile as sluggish demand and stock adjustments drove much of the uptick rather than a sustained pickup in new orders.

Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the October survey was encouraging but cautioned that the rebound “could prove short-lived.” Output growth largely stemmed from manufacturers working through backlogs and allowing inventories to build amid weak demand at home and abroad.

Dobson added that upcoming fiscal developments could complicate the outlook further. Many firms worry that the forthcoming Budget may aggravate structural challenges left by last year’s policy tightening, weighing on confidence even as activity improves. Business optimism rose to an eight-month high but remains below its long-run average.

Eurozone PMI manufacturing at 50.0, very delicate sprout of economic recovery

Eurozone manufacturing activity barely expanded in October, with the final HCOB PMI coming in at 50.0, up marginally from 49.8 in September. National readings showed uneven trends: Greece and Spain led with readings above 52, while Germany (49.6) and Italy (49.9) hovered just below the neutral mark. France and Austria remained in contraction, both at 48.8.

Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, described the improvement as a “very delicate sprout of economic recovery.” Output has risen for eight consecutive months, but new orders remain stagnant, suggesting that growth lacks momentum. The survey also showed that overall demand across the Eurozone remains subdued, with factories struggling to generate fresh business despite tentative output gains.

The regional breakdown highlights persistent divergence. Germany’s factory sector remains fragile, France’s is in recession, and Italy’s shows only persistent weakness. Meanwhile, Spain’s moderate expansion stands out but offers limited offset. De la Rubia warned that France’s political tensions and renewed production slump are weighing on cross-border demand, acting as a drag on its trading partners and complicating hopes for a broader industrial rebound heading into year-end.

Swiss CPI slows to 0.1% yoy in October, broad decline in prices

Swiss inflation cooled further in October, with headline CPI slipping -0.3% mom — weaker than expectations of -0.1% mom. Annual inflation eased to just 0.1% yoy from 0.2% yoy, undershooting forecasts of 0.3% yoy. The data confirmed that price pressures remain virtually absent.

Core inflation also weakened notably, falling -0.2% mom and slowing to 0.5% yoy from 0.7% yoy. Both domestic and imported prices fell during the month, by -0.2% mom and -0.5% mom respectively, suggesting broad-based softness. The sharper decline in imported prices reflects the strong franc’s continued dampening effect on imported goods and energy costs, while domestic components also showed only marginal resilience.

China RatingDog PMI manufacturing falls to 50.6; export orders and prices decline

China’s manufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in October, with the RatingDog PMI easing to 50.6 from 51.2, missing expectations of 50.9. The moderation reflects weaker demand momentum and growing headwinds from global trade tensions, which weighed on both output and new export orders.

According to RatingDog founder Yao Yu, both demand and production expansion softened. Export orders fell "sharply into contraction territory" as heightened trade uncertainty curbed overseas demand. Production growth also cooled, though sub-indices remained in expansion territory. Purchasing activity "slowed significantly", signaling greater caution among manufacturers heading into year-end.

Price pressures was a drag on profits, as raw material costs rose while finished goods prices fell. Exporters reduced selling prices for the first time since April to stay competitive amid fragile external demand. Still, the survey offered a bright spot: the employment index returned to expansion for the first time since March, reaching its highest level since August 2023.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1513; (P) 1.1545; (R1) 1.1569; More…

EUR/USD's fall from 1.1917 continues today and 4H MACD suggests that downside momentum remains firm. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 100% projection of 1.1917 to 1.1540 from 1.1727 at 1.1350. Decisive break there would prompt downside acceleration to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, above 1.1576 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1306) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep outlook bearish.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran cautioned that U.S. monetary policy may already be too restrictive, arguing that the neutral rate sits “quite a ways” below the current stance. Speaking with Bloomberg TV, Miran said his relatively sanguine view on inflation suggests there is “no reason for keeping policy as restrictive” .

Miran also highlighted emerging strains in credit markets as a warning sign that policy may have overshot. He noted that “a series of seemingly uncorrelated credit problems” surfacing across sectors indicates financial stress that was previously masked by strong headline data.

“The longer you keep policy restrictive, the more you run the risk that monetary policy itself causes a downturn,” Miran warned.

• Market fears did not materialise
• The shutdown helps the US dollar
• The yen became October’s outsider
• The Bank of England may cut rates

October was the second-best month of the year for the US dollar. The weakness of its main competitors, the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed, the continuing rally in stock indices and the confident US economy allowed the dollar index to record its strongest performance since July. The main outsiders among the G10 currencies on Forex were the Japanese yen and the British pound.

In the first half of the year, the US dollar lost about 10%. Investors believed that tariffs would accelerate inflation and slow economic growth. Coupled with Donald Trump’s pressure on the Fed, this would lead to an aggressive cut in the federal funds rate and capital flight from the US stock market. All these gloomy forecasts are slow to materialise. This allows investors to return to the greenback.

According to Jerome Powell, the Fed will not rush to cut rates. The shutdown is forcing the central bank to be cautious. The government shutdown could be the longest in history. The longer it lasts, the less likely it is that rates will be cut in December, which is better for the dollar.

Pantheon Macroeconomics believes that the reasons for the resilience of the US economy lie in lower tariffs. Nominally, the average rate exceeds 17%. In fact, companies pay about 12.5%. Currently, tariffs generate approximately $34 billion per month, or around $400 billion per year, for the American budget. Scott Bessent previously stated a figure of between $500 billion and $1 trillion.

The yen weakened due to the Bank of Japan’s reluctance to raise rates. Investors fear that this is happening under pressure from the new government. The pound is losing ground due to fears of imminent tax increases and government spending cuts. The Treasury needs to plug a £35-40 billion hole in the budget. In fact, it may turn out to be even bigger. As a result, GDP growth will slow down, and the Bank of England will be forced to ease its monetary policy.

Goldman Sachs is calling on the BoE to cut rates at its meeting on 6 November. The futures market estimates the chances of this outcome at 1 in 3. At the same time, the split in the MPC signals that the central bank may indeed return to cutting rates. As a result, GBPUSD fell below 1.31 at the end of the week, its lowest level since April.

The Euro continues to trend lower and pressures 1.1500 support zone (round-figure / 50% retracement of 1.1065/1.1918 rally) in early Monday’s trading.

The bear-leg that emerged from a double bull-trap at the base of thick daily cloud, extends into fourth consecutive day.

Break below former higher base (1.1542) completed bearish failure swing pattern on daily chart that adds to bearish near-term outlook.

The notion is supported by strengthening bearish momentum and diverging daily Tenkan / Kijun-sen in bearish setup and converging 55/100DMA’s in attempt to create a bear-cross.

Break of 1.1500 zone to spark further weakness and expose 1.1400 support zone (Fibo 61.8% / higher base of July 30 / Aug 1).

Meanwhile, bears may face headwinds at 1.1500 zone due to oversold conditions and position for fresh push lower, with extended upticks to be capped under 1.1590 zone (broken trendline support / broken Fibo 61.8% / falling 10DMA).

Stronger dollar on the recent Fed’s hawkish cut, which eased bets for December rate cut, continue to pressure Euro, as the US central bank is likely to miss again key report from the labor sector due to prolonged government closure.

This may keep the Fed on hold until getting clearer picture of the situation in the sector, as the already expressed concerns about inflation which still hold well above the target.

Res: 1.1542; 1.1590; 1.1611; 1.1640.
Sup: 1.1500; 1.1446; 1.1391; 1.1322.

Market Overview

The crypto market cap has fallen by 7.7% over the last seven days to $3.6 trillion. The market’s return to Thursday’s local lows indicates that the bulls lack significant strength, which may encourage the bears at the start of the week. Cap has now fallen back to its 200-day moving average. Its last touch at the end of June triggered a growth impulse, pushing it to new highs. However, we are now more inclined to see a repeat of the spring scenario with a decline below this level, possibly by 15-20%.

Bitcoin started the week and month with another attempt to dip below the 200-day moving average, falling back to $107K. The ongoing testing of support since the second half of October is a significant reason for our caution regarding the market in the near term. The most pessimistic scenario would be realised in the event of simultaneous pressure on the stock markets and a strengthening of the dollar. But optimists may also note the sequence of higher lows at the peaks of the sell-off.

Bitcoin fell 4.5% in October to $109.5K, defying the seasonal trends of one of the best months of the year. BTC failed to grow this month for the first time since 2018. From a seasonal perspective, November is considered a relatively bullish month for BTC. Over the past 14 years, Bitcoin has ended this month with growth in nine out of 12 cases. The average increase was 24%, and the average decline was 16.8%.

News Background

During the month, $0.57 billion (+4.1%) was invested in spot Ethereum ETFs in the US, but ETH fell 8% in October.

The inflow into the newly launched Solana ETFs in the US continued for four consecutive days. According to SoSoValue, the net inflow into SOL ETFs amounted to $199.2 million for the week. There are only two players in the segment so far — the new BSOL from Bitwise and the converted GSOL from Grayscale.

Technical analyst Peter Brandt has opened sales on Bitcoin futures. In his opinion, a ‘megaphone’ pattern has formed on the BTC chart, which usually heralds a price drop.

Bitcoin is expected to continue experiencing cyclical fluctuations, and over the next two years, its price could decline by 65–70%, according to Sigma Capital. However, in 10 years, the value of digital gold is expected to exceed $1 million.

Long-term XRP holders have been increasing their sales of the token in recent months. Since the beginning of August, the daily sales volume of XRP by hodlers has grown by 580% to $260 million, according to Glassnode. A similar trend can be observed among short-term holders. At the same time, large addresses have begun to accumulate the asset.

Tether has made more than $10 billion in profits since the beginning of the year, the company said. Investments in US Treasury bonds reached a historic high of $135 billion.

October proved exceptionally volatile for the silver market — the price broke past a historical record, climbing above $50. However, after widespread profit-taking, the market reversed downward.

XAG/USD is currently influenced by several factors:

→ prospects for Federal Reserve policy;

→ the easing of trade tensions between the United States and China;

→ the potential government shutdown and related news.

As indicated by the ATR indicator, volatility is declining — suggesting that supply and demand forces may be finding a balance.

Technical Analysis of the XAG/USD Chart

The broad upward channel remains intact, though it is worth noting that its median line has shifted from acting as support to serving as resistance.

From a bullish perspective:

→ the lower boundary of the channel acts as strong support;

→ the bullish A-B-C-D structure indicates that demand is recovering.

From a bearish perspective: if the silver price continues to rise, it will face resistance at:

→ the psychological $50 mark;

→ the 21 October drop zone, where selling pressure previously dominated.

Given the above, it is reasonable to assume that:

→ in the near term, the price may consolidate around the QL line;

→ if bearish momentum resumes, the alternative downward channel (shown in red) will gain relevance.

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UK manufacturing showed tentative signs of life in October, with the final S&P Global PMI rising to 49.7 from September’s 46.2. However, the improvement remains fragile as sluggish demand and stock adjustments drove much of the uptick rather than a sustained pickup in new orders.

Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the October survey was encouraging but cautioned that the rebound “could prove short-lived.” Output growth largely stemmed from manufacturers working through backlogs and allowing inventories to build amid weak demand at home and abroad.

Dobson added that upcoming fiscal developments could complicate the outlook further. Many firms worry that the forthcoming Budget may aggravate structural challenges left by last year’s policy tightening, weighing on confidence even as activity improves. Business optimism rose to an eight-month high but remains below its long-run average.

Full UK PMI manufacturing final release here.

The EUR/USD pair is declining for a fourth consecutive session, edging closer to the 1.1532 level. Investor sentiment remains cautious as markets digest recent trade developments and await a slew of high-impact economic data.

Over the weekend, the White House announced a de-escalation in trade tensions with China. Beijing has agreed to suspend additional export restrictions on rare earth metals and end investigations into US semiconductor companies. In return, the US will freeze certain existing tariffs and cancel a planned 100% tariff hike on Chinese exports. This decision follows last week's summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which aimed to stabilise bilateral relations.

Meanwhile, the protracted US government shutdown continues to delay the release of official key statistics, notably employment data. In their absence, market participants will seek guidance from private-sector indicators due in the coming days, including the ADP employment report, the ISM Services PMI, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

This comes after the Federal Reserve's expected 25-basis-point rate cut last week. Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance, emphasising that a follow-up cut in December is not a foregone conclusion – a message that has provided underlying support for the US dollar.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD formed a tight consolidation range around 1.1569. A subsequent downward breakout completed a bearish wave to 1.1521, and the pair is now consolidating above this local low.

A technical rebound to retest 1.1569 from below is a possibility. However, with bearish momentum still intact, we anticipate a further decline towards 1.1500 following any such pullback. The broader target for this move is 1.1488, which is viewed as the first leg of the third and typically strongest wave within the prevailing downtrend. The MACD indicator confirms this outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing decisively downward, reflecting sustained selling pressure.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair broke downwards from a consolidation range around 1.1566, achieving its initial target at 1.1495. Once this level is reached, a corrective bounce towards 1.1533 is likely before the resumption of the downtrend towards 1.1468.

This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 50 and is falling confidently towards the 20 zone, indicating that short-term downward momentum remains dominant.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under clear selling pressure, with a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions and a cautiously hawkish Fed stance providing a supportive backdrop for the US dollar. Technically, the structure is bearish, suggesting that any near-term rebounds are likely to be corrective within a broader downtrend, with key downside targets at 1.1488 and 1.1468.