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Technical Outlook and Review

DXY:

On the weekly, prices are on bullish momentum. We see the potential for abounce from our 1st support at 97.294 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 102.886. Prices are trading above our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bullish bias.

On the daily, prices are at a Pivot. We see the potential for a dip from our 1st resistance at 100.163 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci Projection towards our 1st support at 97.540 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement.

On the H1 timeframe, prices have approached pivot. We see the potential for a dip from our 1st resistance at 99.813 in line with which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st support at 99.381 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where dips previously occurred, further supporting our bearish bias.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 99.813
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 99.381

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the weekly, prices are on bullish momentum and abiding by an ascending trendline support. We see the potential for a bounce from our 1st support at 1875.057 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci Projection. Prices are trading above our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bullish view. On the daily, prices are on a support. We see the potential for a bounce from our 1st support at 1910.811 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1910.811 in 100% Fibonacci Projection. Prices are trading above our Ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bullish bias. On the H4, prices are consolidating in a triangle pattern. We see the potential for a dip from our 1st resistance at 1937.627 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st support at 1915.592 in line which is a graphical overlap and in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Projection. RSI is at levels where dips previously occurred, further supporting our bearish view.

Areas of consideration:

  • 4h 1st support at 1915.592
  • 4h 1st resistance at 1937.627

GBP/USD:

On the weekly, prices have reached a key pivot. We see the potential for a dip from our 1st resistance at 1.31756 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 1.27283 in line with 100% fibonacci Projection. Prices are trading below our ichimoku cloud resistance, further supporting our bearish bias.

On the daily, prices are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for a dip from our 1st resistance at 1.31632 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 1.28887 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Prices are trading below our ichimoku cloud resistance, further supporting our bearish bias.

On the H4, prices are approaching a pivot. We see the potential for further bearish continuation from our 1st resistance at 1.30961 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 1.3000 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci Projection. Alternatively, if prices continue to climb, we might find prices climbing further towards our 2nd resistance at 1.3158 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is further supported by RSI being at levels where dips previously occurred.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 1st resistance at 1.30961
  • H4 1st support at 1.3000

USD/CHF:

On the Weekly, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance from our 1st support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support.

On the Daily, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance from our 1st support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support.

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud and the recent break of the channel, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 0.93720 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from our 1st support at 0.92978 in line with the horizontal pullback support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 0.92700 in line with the swing pullback support.

Areas of consideration

  • 1st support level at 0.92978
  • 1st resistance level at 0.93720

EUR/USD :

On the weekly timeframe, price is near 1st support level of 1.08185 in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement. It can potentially bounce up to 1st resistance level of 1.14997 in line with 50% fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is near support level.

On the daily timeframe, price is 1st support level of 1.08585 in line with 161.8% fibonacci extension. It can potentially bounce up to 1st resistance level of 1.11891 in line with 50% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is near support level.

On the H4 timeframe, prices are at a key pivot. We see the potential for a bounce from our 1st support at 1.08605 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our 1st resistance at 1.09550 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is near support level.

Areas of consideration :

  • H4 1st resistance at 1.09550
  • H4 1st support at 1.08605

USD/JPY:

On the weekly, prices are on bullish momentum and approaching a key pivot. We see the potential for a dip from our 1st resistance at 125.747 in line with 200% Fibonacci Projection towards our 1st support at 118.537 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. RSI is at levels where dips previously occurred. On the daily, prices are approaching a key pivot. We see the potential for dip from our 1st resistance at 124.381 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection towards our 1st support at 121.291 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection. RSI is at levels where dips previously occurred. On the H4 timeframe, prices are at a pivot. We see the potential for a dip from our 1st resistance at 123.981 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st support at 123.057 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci Projection. Bearish divergence is spotted on RSI, further supporting our bearish bias.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 123.981
  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 123.057

AUD/USD:

On the weekly timeframe, price is near to 1st resistance level of 0.76539 in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially dip to 1st support level of 0.69813 which is in line with 100% fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by price trading below the ichimoku cloud indicator.

On the daily timeframe, price is near to 1st resistance level of 0.75575 in line with 50% fibonacci retracement, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension. Price can potentially bearish dip to 1st support level of 0.71890 which is in line with 100% fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is at resistance level.

On the H4 timeframe, we see the potential for a bullish bounce from our 1st support level at 0.74716 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 0.75951 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is at support level.

Areas of consideration

  • H4 1st resistance at 0.75951
  • H4 1st support at 0.74716

NZD/USD:

On the Weekly, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance from our 1st support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support.

On the Daily, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance from our 1st support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support.

On the H4, with price moving below our ichimoku cloud, we expect to see a potential for bearish drop from our 1st resistance of 0.69168 in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st support level at 0.67975 in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Alternatively, If price breaks out, it can potentially move towards our 2nd resistance level at 0.70152 which is in line with the swing high resistance.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.67975
  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.69168

USD/CAD:

On the Weekly, with price expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we have a bias that price will drop to our 1st support from our 1st resistance. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance and head for 2nd resistance.

On the Daily, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will drop to our 1st support from our 1st resistance. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance and head for 2nd resistance.

On the H4, with price expected to reverse off the stochastic indicator, we expect to see a potential for bearish drop from our 1st resistance of 1.25811 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st support level at 1.25336 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, If price breaks out, it can potentially move towards our 2nd resistance level at 1.26554 which is in line with the pullback support.

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.25336
  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1.25811

OIL:

On the Weekly, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance from our 1st support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support.

On the Daily, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance from our 1st support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support.

On the H4, with price expected to bounce off the support of the stochastics indicator, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 114.40 in line with the horizontal pullback resistance from our 1st support at 101.71 in line with the horizontal overlap support, 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 90.16 in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension

Areas of consideration:

  • H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 114.40
  • H4 time frame, 1st support of 101.71

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the Weekly, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance from our 1st support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support.

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance from our 1st support. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support.

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 35823 in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from our 1st support at 34061 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 32910 in line with the horizontal swing low support.

Areas of consideration :

  • H4 1st support at 34569
  • H4 1st resistance at 35823

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.59; (P) 161.93; (R1) 162.45; More...

GBP/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 164.61 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Outlook remains bullish with 158.04 resistance turned support intact, and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 164.61 will resume larger up trend to long term fibonacci level at 167.93. However, firm break of 158.19 will turn bias to the downside and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress, and notable support from 55 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93. Sustained break there will be a long term bullish signal. This will now remain the favored case as long as 150.95 support holds.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.38; (P) 134.94; (R1) 135.46; More....

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation from 137.50 and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. With 133.70 minor support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, sustained break of 137.49 resistance will resume larger up trend for 144.06 projection level next. However, firm break of 133.70 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Sustained break of 137.49 (2018 high) will resume larger pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Next target will be 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06. In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 124.37 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8302; (P) 0.8334; (R1) 0.8353; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.8294 will argue that rebound from 0.8201 has completed at 0.8511, and revive near term bearishness. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 0.8201 low. On the upside, however, break of 0.8511 will reaffirm that 0.8201 is a medium term bottom, and target 0.8697 medium term fibonacci level next..

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8201, on bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. Rise from there could either be a correction to the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high), or a medium term up trend itself. In either case, further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 0.9003. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8294 support holds.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4486; (P) 1.4550; (R1) 1.4612; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and some more consolidation could be seen above 1.4318 temporary low. But outlook remains bearish as long as 1.4940 resistance holds. Break of 1.4318 will resume larger down trend to 1.3624 long term support next. On the upside, however, firm break of 1.4940 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.5327 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0141; (P) 1.0169; (R1) 1.0193; More....

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook and further fall is in favor with 1.0242 minor resistance intact. Rebound from 0.9770 could have completed at 1.0400 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.1149 to 0.9970 at 1.0420. Further fall would be seen back to retest 0.9970 low. However, break of 1.0242 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0400 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. In any case, sustained break of 1.0505 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2547; (P) 1.2580; (R1) 1.2624; More...

Immediate focus is now on 1.2591 resistance in USD/CAD. Firm break there will suggest that fall from 1.2899 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.2899 resistance again. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.2591, followed by break of 1.2401 support, will retain near term bearishness for retesting 1.2005 low.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7458; (P) 0.7488; (R1) 0.7510; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral, but further rally is expected as long as 0.7455 support holds. As noted before, whole corrective decline from 0.8006 should have completed at 0.6966 already. Break of 0.7660 will resume the rise from 0.6966 to retest 0.8006 high. However, firm break of 0.7455 will dampen this bullish view, and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7164 support instead.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.63; (P) 123.81; (R1) 124.16; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook stays bullish with 121.17 support intact and further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 125.09 will target 125.85 long term resistance. Firm break pave the way to 130.04 long term projection level. However, break of 121.17 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9325; (P) 0.9336; (R1) 0.9355; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Firm break of 0.9380 resistance will indicate that fall from 0.9459 has completed with three wave down to 0.9193. Such development will revive near term bullishness and turn bias back to the upside for 0.9459 and then 0.9471 resistance. On the downside, however, below 0.9280 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.9193 support support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds. Larger down trend could still extend through 0.8756 (2021 low). However, firm break of 0.9471 will argue that whole down trend form 1.0342 (2016 high), has completed with waves down to 0.8756. A medium term up trend should be set up to target 1.0237/0342 resistance zone.