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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6475; (P) 0.6493; (R1) 0.6509; More...

AUD/USD is still bounded in sideway trading and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6540) holds. Below 0.6439 will target 0.6413 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403. Decisive break there will indicate bearish reversal after rejection by 0.6713 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 D EMA will keep the rise from 0.5913 intact, and bring retest of 0.6706 high.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1584; (P) 1.1603; (R1) 1.1629; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 1.1727 resistance intact, further decline is expected. Break of 1.1540 will resume the fall from 1.1917 to 1.1390 support, or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, though, break of 1.1727 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1778, and then retest of 1.1917 high instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1290) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3313; (P) 1.3350; (R1) 1.3394; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Fall from 1.3725 could extend lower, and break of 1.3247 will target 1.3140 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142). Strong support is expected there to contain downside to complete the corrective pattern from 1.3787. On the upside, break of 1.3170 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3526 resistance. Firm break there will target 1.3725/87 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. But strong resistance could emerge from 1.4248 (2021 high) to limit upside. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3191) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7948; (P) 0.7961; (R1) 0.7973; More…

No change in USD/CHF's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. With 0.7984 resistance intact, further decline is in favor. On the downside, below 0.7913 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7872 and then 0.7828 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.7984 will suggest that corrective pattern from 0.7828 is extending with another rising leg, and target 0.8075 again.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.62; (P) 151.84; (R1) 152.18; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 153.26 resistance. Break there will resume larger rally from 139.87 to 100% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 153.71. Firm break there would prompt upside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 158.80. On the downside, below 151.49 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Risk sentiment turned slightly softer again, as Asian equities pulled back following Wall Street’s modest decline overnight. Investors took a more cautious stance after recent rallies, with profit-taking emerging ahead of key global data and fresh developments on the U.S.–China trade front. Nikkei 225 led the regional retreat, slipping after its record-breaking run earlier this week driven by optimism over newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus policy stance.

While sentiment toward Takaichi’s leadership remains positive, markets appear to be digesting earlier gains, with 50,000 level acting as a strong psychological barrier for the Nikkei. The pullback is viewed as a technical correction following an extraordinary advance rather than a reversal in momentum. Investors are waiting for more clarity on the new administration’s fiscal measures and trade posture before re-engaging at higher levels.

Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s KOSPI initially jumped to a new record high after the Bank of Korea held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.50%, extending a policy pause that began in May. The index later trimmed gains, mirroring the broader regional tone as risk appetite faded into the afternoon session.

On the trade front, U.S. President Donald Trump struck a cautiously optimistic tone, saying he expected to reach several agreements with Chinese President Xi Jinping when they meet in South Korea next week — including possible soybean purchase commitments and nuclear arms limits. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer headed to Malaysia for talks aimed at easing tensions over China’s rare earth export curbs. Bessent said he was optimistic that two days of “fulsome” discussions would lay the groundwork for a productive leaders’ meeting, though U.S. officials have prepared additional measures should talks stall.

In currency markets, Dollar extended its lead while Loonie and Aussie followed. Japanese Yen remained the weakest performer, trailed by Swiss Franc and New Kiwi, while Sterling and Euro stayed mid-pack.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.46%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.19%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.83%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.03%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.001 at 1.656. Overnight, DOW fell -0.71%. S&P 500 fell -0.53%. NASDAQ fell -0.93%. 10-year yield fell -0.010 to 3.953.

WTI climbs Past 60 after US sanctions on Russia Fall from 78.87 run its course?

Oil prices rebounded sharply today, with WTI crude rising back above the 60 mark, as geopolitical tensions re-entered focus after the Trump administration imposed new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil.

The U.S. Treasury said the move was in response to Moscow’s “lack of serious commitment” to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine. Announcing the sanctions, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” warning that Washington is prepared to “take further action if necessary.” He urged U.S. allies to join in applying pressure on Moscow. Reports suggested that the new round of sanctions followed the collapse of a planned Trump–Putin meeting in Budapest, which had raised hopes for progress toward de-escalation.

The sanctions created a short-covering wave across crude futures, helping oil snap its recent losing streak. While demand signals remain mixed, the reemergence of supply-side uncertainty has stabilized sentiment, halting a multi-week slide that had dragged prices persistently.

Technically, the rebound has taken on added significance. The firm break above 59.47 resistance confirms that a short-term bottom has likely formed at 56.44, accompanied by bullish convergence in 4H MACD after testing the channel floor.

The focus now shifts to whether the fall from 78.87 has completed as a corrective move as second leg of the broader pattern from 55.20 (2025 low made in April).

In either case, further gains are favored toward key resistance zone between 62.21 support turned resistance and 55 EMA (now at 62.46). Sustained break above this area would strengthen the case for near-term bullish reversal, opening the way to 38.2% retracement of 78.87 to 56.44 at 65.00.

However, failure to clear this zone would suggest the rebound remains corrective, keeping risks skewed toward another dip back toward 55.20 before a more durable bottom forms.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.62; (P) 151.84; (R1) 152.18; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 153.26 resistance. Break there will resume larger rally from 139.87 to 100% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 153.71. Firm break there would prompt upside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 158.80. On the downside, below 151.49 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

In focus today

In the euro area, we monitor the October consumer confidence indicator. Confidence has remained low over the past half year likely due to geopolitical tensions and rising food prices. The weak confidence is hurting private consumption which remains low despite improving real incomes. Normalising consumer confidence will thus be key for the growth outlook in order for households to lower their elevated savings rate and drive consumption.

In Norway, wage growth appears to have slowed in Q3 from elevated levels close to 6% in Q2. Today, the September figures will confirm whether this trend continued or not. High wage growth remains a major concern for Norges Bank due to the risk of persistently high inflation, so further slowdown is a necessary condition for Norges Bank to deliver rate cuts next year. Also keep an eye on the LFS figures to see if the rise in unemployment continues.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In the Ukraine war, the US hit Russia with sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, two of Russia's largest oil companies. The sanctions come just after the summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin was cancelled yesterday. The tariffs were announced as an effort to damage Moscow's ability to fund its war machine and also mark the first cost imposed by the Trump administration on Russia over the war. Oil prices rose immediately following the announcement. This move is adding fuel to the fire and comes just after the EU approving the 19th package of sanctions, which include a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports.

What happened yesterday

In the UK, September inflation surprised significantly to the downside. Headline inflation came in at 3.8% y/y (cons: 4.0%, prior: 3.8%), core at 3.5% (cons: 3.7%, prior: 3.6%) and importantly, services at 4.7% (cons: 4.9%, prior: 4.7%). The momentum slowed across categories, and the print was also below the BoE's expectations from the latest MPR in August, where it had headline at 4.0%. Following last week's downside surprise to wage growth and the lower-than-expected inflation, markets have increased their expectations for rate cuts from the BoE, pricing 9bp for the November meeting and 60bp for the coming 12 months.

In the EU, trade Chief Maros Sefcovic announced an urgent meeting with the Chinese Commerce Minister to address the rare earth export controls as well as the recent fallout over the chipmaker Nexperia, which was owned by a Chinese company until the Dutch government took control last week.

In China, more than 170 foreign companies gathered for a meeting with Vice Commerce Minister Ling Ji, where he aimed to clarify that the country's new rare earth export controls are not intended to obstruct regular trade. During the meeting Ling Ji said: "China will continue to approve legitimate transactions according to law and work to maintain the stability of global supply chains".

Equities: Equities traded lower yesterday, though without any clear macro or geopolitical trigger to justify the move. In the absence of major data releases, one might have looked to earnings for direction, yet it is hard to see why results should have prompted such a negative reaction. The move instead looked more like a defensive rotation following the strong run we have seen over recent months in cyclicals. The energy sector outperformed after the US announced new Russian sanctions. In the US yesterday, Dow -0.7%, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.9% and Russell 2000 -1.5%. In Asia overnight, markets followed Wall Street lower, with most indices in the red, particularly the more tech-heavy ones. Futures in Europe and the US are largely unchanged this morning.

FI and FX: Risk sentiment turned sour after reports that the Trump administration is considering new restrictions on software exports to China, adding to trade uncertainty, while corporate earnings continued to underwhelm. US Treasury yields were little changed, slipping 1-2bp across the curve. In the euro area, price action was muted, with front-end Bund yields unchanged, while the long end edged 1-2bp higher in a mild bear-steepening move. EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.16 in a quiet session; with the broad USD little changed amid a lack of fresh catalysts. GBP faced significant headwinds during yesterday's session as September inflation surprised to the downside. USD/JPY has generally extended its upward trend over the past month, with JPY broadly underperforming across G10. Both EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK extended their declines again yesterday, especially NOK FX had a strong day yesterday reflecting the rise in global energy prices incl. oil.

Trade worries resurfaced yesterday — yes, resurfaced instead of easing — after reports that the Trump administration is considering new restrictions on software exports to China. Are we surprised? Not really. These on-and-off headlines have been circulating for nearly a year, repeatedly injecting short-term anxiety into the markets. That’s exactly what happened yesterday: major US indices retreated, led by technology names. Headlines could turn better anytime, or worsen.

Netflix’s 10% plunge following disappointing quarterly results didn’t help sentiment. Still, since Netflix isn’t an AI play, its earnings story remains fairly isolated and shouldn’t impact broader appetite for AI-related stocks — the key driver behind the US market’s rally.

Elsewhere in earnings, Tesla missed expectations despite record sales. The record, however, was largely due to buyers rushing to purchase EVs before the end of federal subsidies — a one-off jump unlikely to prevent Tesla from posting a second consecutive annual sales decline. Profits plunged as operating expenses rose by roughly 50%, partly due to higher costs linked to renewed trade duties, estimated at around $400 million. While Musk continues to shift focus toward AI, humanoid robots and robotaxis, those ventures won’t offset the decline in EV revenues anytime soon. And this time, unlike the previous earnings announcements, investors weren’t entirely convinced by the latest pitch, and Tesla shares dropped 3.8% in after-hours trading.

Looking at the chart, Tesla has been on a wild ride since the elections. The EV business has been under pressure for over a year and is far from delivering the 50% annual growth Musk once promised. After last year’s US elections and Musk’s alignment with Trump, the stock rose — but when that relationship cooled, it fell again. Despite a recent rebound, Tesla’s valuation remains lofty: its P/E ratio is above 300, versus around 33 for the Magnificent 7. For Tesla to justify that premium, it needs tangible progress in robotaxis, robotics and AI — but the “Musk risk” makes it a very different bet from other tech giants.

The good news is that neither Tesla nor Netflix meaningfully shifts the broader AI-driven narrative that continues to steer the major US indices. Futures point to a modest rebound this morning, suggesting sentiment remains intact despite lingering trade, geopolitical and credit risks.

Turning to geopolitics, the EU has approved its 19th sanctions package against Russia, while the US announced new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil — two Russian oil giants — pushing US crude prices back above $60 per barrel this morning. Such geopolitical headlines tend to generate short-term price moves, and tactical long positions may encounter resistance near $62–62.50, where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June–October selloff and the 50-DMA converge. The medium-term outlook for oil remains somewhat bearish given uncertain global demand and abundant supply. Upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and a softer US dollar should, in theory, help establish a floor under oil prices, alongside rising energy needs tied to AI and data infrastructure. Yet, oil bulls have struggled to gain traction on these arguments, and speculative long positions are retreating. Any recovery is therefore likely to remain short-lived, with the medium-term bias staying bearish below the $65 level — the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the summer decline.

On credit, concerns about bad loans that surfaced last week have eased, as several US regional banks reported no new cases in their quarterly updates. That’s a relief, but the recent stress serves as a reminder that credit conditions remain fragile. PrimaLend Capital Partners — a subprime auto lender that finances buy-here-pay-here car dealerships — filed for bankruptcy. The case underscores growing strain among low-income US consumers, who are falling behind on car payments at the highest rate in decades.

The bottom line is that we know the stock market’s performance doesn’t fully reflect the underlying US economy (if any at all). Growth remains heavily supported by massive AI investment, while the labour market is weakening. Things could get worse before they improve, with many federal employees expected to miss paychecks next month amid a government shutdown that’s now on track to become the second longest in history.

These conditions are clearly paving the way for Fed intervention — provided inflation doesn’t reaccelerate. We’ll get more clarity on that front Friday, but the US 2-year yield, which best captures rate expectations, suggests investors are pricing in at least two rate cuts over the next two Fed meetings — a setup that, in itself, remains supportive of risk appetite.

Oil prices rebounded sharply today, with WTI crude rising back above the 60 mark, as geopolitical tensions re-entered focus after the Trump administration imposed new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil.

The U.S. Treasury said the move was in response to Moscow’s “lack of serious commitment” to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine. Announcing the sanctions, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” warning that Washington is prepared to “take further action if necessary.” He urged U.S. allies to join in applying pressure on Moscow. Reports suggested that the new round of sanctions followed the collapse of a planned Trump–Putin meeting in Budapest, which had raised hopes for progress toward de-escalation.

The sanctions created a short-covering wave across crude futures, helping oil snap its recent losing streak. While demand signals remain mixed, the reemergence of supply-side uncertainty has stabilized sentiment, halting a multi-week slide that had dragged prices persistently.

Technically, the rebound has taken on added significance. The firm break above 59.47 resistance confirms that a short-term bottom has likely formed at 56.44, accompanied by bullish convergence in 4H MACD after testing the channel floor.

The focus now shifts to whether the fall from 78.87 has completed as a corrective move as second leg of the broader pattern from 55.20 (2025 low made in April).

In either case, further gains are favored toward key resistance zone between 62.21 support turned resistance and 55 EMA (now at 62.46). Sustained break above this area would strengthen the case for near-term bullish reversal, opening the way to 38.2% retracement of 78.87 to 56.44 at 65.00.

However, failure to clear this zone would suggest the rebound remains corrective, keeping risks skewed toward another dip back toward 55.20 before a more durable bottom forms.

Key Highlights

• Gold extended its rally and traded to a new record high above $4,380 before correcting lower.
• It traded below a key bullish trend line with support at $4,120 on the 4-hour chart.
• WTI Crude Oil prices could struggle to recover above $60.00.
• EUR/USD is again moving lower below 1.1650 and 1.1620.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold prices formed a base above $4,000 and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. It cleared many hurdles near $4,150 and $4,250.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price settled above the $4,000 level, the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours). The upward move was such that the price spiked above $4,350.

Gold traded to a new record high near $4,381 before the bears took a stand. There was a sharp downside correction below $4,200. The price traded below a key bullish trend line with support at $4,120.

It tested $4,000 and is currently consolidating losses. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $4,150 level. The next major resistance sits near the $4,180 level.

A clear move above $4,180 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $4,250, above which the price could rally toward the milestone level of $4,350.

On the downside, initial support is near the $4,000 level. The first key support is $3,945. The next major support is near the $3,850 level. A downside break below $3,850 might call for more downsides. The next key zone to watch could be $3,750.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price attempted a decent recovery wave, but the bears remained active below the $60.00 level.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 227K, versus 218K previous.
• US New Home Sales for Sep 2025 (MoM) – Forecast +2.9% versus +20.5% previous.