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GBPCAD: ⬇️ Sell

• GBPCAD reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to support level 1.8600

GBPCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance area located between the resistance levels 1.8835 and 1.8900 (which has been reversing the price from June).

The downward reversal from this resistance area formed the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover – which started the active downward correction.

Given the strength of the nearby resistance area and the bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, GBPCAD cryptocurrency can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.8600.

Silver stabilized after finding temporary footsteps at important Fibo support at $47.60 (38.2% retracement of $36.20/$54.64 rally).

Fresh bears take a breather after massive loss on Tuesday, when the metal’s price fell 7%, in the biggest daily drop since 11 Aug 2020.

Pullback from new record high ($54.64) started on Friday and accelerated on Tuesday, as traders opted for more aggressive profit-taking, dragged by strong pullback of gold price and stronger dollar.

Change in key fundamental factors, such as lower demand from India and restored supply, that would help renewing stocks, recently used due to supply shortage, eased upside pressure and shifted near term sentiment into opposite direction for now.

Strong acceleration on Tuesday broke the most significant support at $50 zone (psychological / former record highs of 1980 and 2011) signaled deeper correction.

Although the latest pullback was significant and weakened near term structure, larger picture still shows strong uptrend in play, with current action to be described as a healthy correction which would provide better levels to re-enter broader bullish market.

The Fibo support at $47.60 is reinforced by daily Kijun-sen and should ideally contain dips, but consolidation attempts were so far fragile and signal that the downside remains vulnerable.

Violation of $47.60 to unmask $45.42 (50% retracement of $36.20/$54.64) and rising 55DMA ($43.44) above which extended dips should find firm ground.

Broken 20DMA marks initial resistance ($49.14), with near-term action expected to remain biased lower while broken $50 pivot (now acting as solid resistance) caps upticks.

Res: 49.14; 50.00; 50.30; 51.00
Sup: 47.01; 45.90; 45.42; 43.65

The short-term Elliott Wave analysis for the DAX Index indicates it is nearing the completion of a cycle from its April 2025 low, unfolding as wave (5). From the June 19 low, wave (5) has developed as an ending diagonal Elliott Wave structure. The rally from this low saw wave 1 peak at 24639.1, followed by a wave 2 pullback concluding at 23284.67. The Index then advanced in wave 3, structured as a five-wave impulse. From the wave 2 low, wave ((i)) reached 23785.24, with a corrective dip in wave ((ii)) at 23383.84. The subsequent wave ((iii)) climbed to 24524.11, followed by a wave ((iv)) retracement to 24269.94. The final wave ((v)) culminated at 24771.34, completing wave 3.

Wave 4 unfolded as a double zigzag structure. From the wave 3 high, wave ((w)) declined to 23986.93, wave ((x)) rebounded to 24339.27, and wave ((y)) fell to 23682.73, finalizing wave 4. The Index has since turned upward in wave 5. From the wave 4 low, wave ((i)) reached 24384.24. A wave ((ii)) pullback is expected to correct the cycle from the October 17 low before the Index resumes its ascent. As long as the pivot at 23682.73 holds, pullbacks should attract buyers in a 3, 7, or 11 swing, supporting further upside in the near term.

DAX Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 10.23.2025

DAX Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lL7FHkTe5tI

Markets

UK gilts rally, outperforming their US and European peers dramatically in the process. British yields drop between 8.1 and 8.9 bps after sub-consensus inflation numbers. September headline CPI flatlined on a monthly basis and caused the annual print to match August’s 3.8%. The Bank of England for the last couple of months had been warning for inflation to peak last month at 4% before disinflation would kick in again. The current 3.8% in other words means a better starting point. Core inflation unexpectedly eased to 3.5% from 3.6% and services CPI defied expectations for an acceleration to 4.8% by coming in at 4.7%, the same as in August. Producer price inflation gauges also came in below analyst estimates. The price report is a sigh of relief, including for the Bank of England. The central bank is torn between supporting the economy through rate cuts and stubborn above-target inflation. Since it last cut rates back in August the BoE started floating the possibility of going even slower than the quarterly pace it followed until then. Markets dramatically reduced bets for a November 6 reduction to near zero in response. That’s now going in reverse: the market implied probability shot higher to 35% currently. Governor Bailey will be the swing vote in a split MPC. The sharp yield drop is a boon for UK’s dire public finances too. Depending on the cut-off used by the Office of Budget Responsibility in drafting the pre-Autumn Budget forecast, estimates (Bloomberg) of borrowing cost savings vary between £2 and £4.5bn. When looking for money to fill a £35bn fiscal hole, every bit counts. Cratering yields weigh on GBP but it could have been a lot worse. EUR/GBP bounced to 0.871 before halving those gains. The euro himself isn’t exactly showcasing strength. EUR/USD drifts further south with the 1.16 big figure again at risk of being lost. The US dollar remains the better bid currency against most major peers. DXY is back above 99. Precious metals remain in the defensive. Gold and silver’s pullback continues, extending yesterday’s slide. Stock markets are taking a breather near the record highs. Decent-to-strong corporate earnings have supported the recent upleg. Markets are now eyeballing the next batch from bellwethers such as Tesla & Alcoa (after-market).

News & Views

The monthly consumer confidence report published by the National Bank of Belgium today, showed the overall confidence level continuing its upward trajectory. At 0 (up from -1) the index reached the best level for 2025. The move was mainly due to a sharp decline in consumers’ fears about unemployment. The subindex improved from 2 to -6, the best level since January 2018. The improved in expectations on unemployment offset greater pessimism concentrating the economic situation in the country (-27 from -23). On a personal level, households have slightly downgraded their expectations regarding their own financial situation (-2 from 0) and they intend to save a little more 23 from 22).

Consumer price inflation in South Africa in September rose slightly by 0.2% M/M and 3.4% Y/Y (from -0.1% and 3.3% in August). Core inflation (excluding food & non-alcoholic beverages, fuel and energy) also rose 0.3% M/M and 3.2% Y/Y (from 0.1% M/M and 3.1% Y/Y). Goods inflation eased from 3.1% Y/Y to 2.9%, but services inflation accelerated from 3.6% to 3.9%. In its September monetary policy statement, the South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) indicated that it expected the inflation rate to rise to 4% over the next few months. Overall, it expected headline inflation to average 3.4% this year, and 3.6% next year, before reverting to 3% during 2027. In its assessment it saw higher electricity prices as well has upwardly revised food and services prices. This was partially offset by a stronger exchange rate assumption. In September, the SARB paused its easing cycle, leaving the policy rate at 7% as it wanted to see the impact of the previous 125 bps of rate cuts over the previous year. As the SARB aims to bring inflation to the bottom of the 3-6% official target range, current inflation development only leaves room for very gradual policy easing going forward. The rand today eases modestly to USD/ZAR 17.425. The USD/ZAR cross rate earlier this month touched 17.07, coming close to the 2024 low (high for the rand).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1580; (P) 1.1618; (R1) 1.1637; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and further decline is expected. Break of 1.1540 will resume the fall from 1.197 to 1.1390 support, or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, though, break of 1.1727 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1778, and then retest retest of 1.1917 high instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1290) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7930; (P) 0.7949; (R1) 0.7982; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and further fall is in favor with 0.7984 minor resistance intact. On the downside, 0.7913 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7872 and then 0.7828 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.7984 will suggest that corrective pattern from 0.7828 is extending with another rising leg, and target 0.8075 again.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.87; (P) 151.53; (R1) 152.58; More...

No change in USD/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 153.26. Break there will resume larger rally from 139.87 to 100% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 153.71. Firm break there would prompt upside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 158.80. on the downside, below 150.45 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3346; (P) 1.3383; (R1) 1.3404; More...

GBP/USD dips notably today but stays above 1.3247 support. Fall from 1.3725 could extend lower, and break of 1.3247 will target 1.3140 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142). Strong support is expected there to contain downside to complete the corrective pattern from 1.3787. On the upside, break of 1.3170 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3526 resistance. Firm break there will target 1.3725/87 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. But strong resistance could emerge from 1.4248 (2021 high) to limit upside. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3191) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

The foreign exchange market traded quietly today, with investors reluctant to take fresh major positions. With risk sentiment mixed and volatility muted, most major pairs remained confined to familiar ranges

The British Pound was under mild pressure as traders raised their bets on another BoE rate cut later this year, albeit not in November. Euro and Swiss Franc also traded on the defensive, mirroring the Pound’s mild weakness.

In contrast, commodity currencies held up better. Aussie, Kiwi, and Loonie all registered modest gains. Dollar and Japanese Yen hovered in the middle of the performance board.

Overall trading activity might stay low until key data releases at the end of the week including the U.S. CPI on Friday and a series of PMI surveys from major economies.

Beyond the data focus, trade diplomacy was also in the spotlight. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent were set to travel to Malaysia for talks with Chinese officials over what Washington described as “incredibly aggressive” restrictions on rare earth exports.

Bessent said there remains a potential slot for a meeting between President Trump and President Xi, though it would depend on mutual readiness. Greer added that while China’s actions breached earlier commitments to maintain rare earth supply, there was still a “good landing zone” for rebalancing trade ties.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.96%. DAX is down -0.18%. CAC is down -0.30%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.084 at 4.404. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.008 at 2.567. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.02%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.94%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.07%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.29%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.008 to 1.655.

UK CPI at 3.8% in September, undershoots expectations of 4.0%

UK inflation came in softer than expected in September. Headline CPI was unchanged at 3.8% yoy, below consensus of 4.0%. Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) eased to 3.5% from 3.6%.

Breakdowns showed a mixed picture under the surface. CPI goods component rose marginally from 2.8% yoy to 2.9%, highest since October 2023. Services inflation held unchanged at 4.7%.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat, another sign that the inflation pulse has moderated heading into the final quarter of the year.

GBP/CHF dips but range holds as UK CPI not dovish enough

Sterling slipped today after softer-than-expected UK inflation data reinforced expectations that the BoE remains on track to cut rates again this year—though not as soon as the next meeting. A November pause still appears more likely, with solid reasons to wait until after the November 26 Budget and another round of inflation data before committing to further easing.

However, expectations for a December rate cut have strengthened notably. Interest-rate futures now assign roughly a 75% probability that the BoE will lower the Bank Rate to 3.75% from 4.00% at the December meeting—up from about 46% before the CPI release. Traders have also brought forward expectations for the next move, fully pricing a second 25-basis-point cut by February 2026, a month earlier than previously anticipated.

In the currency market, the Pound’s selloff was broad but relatively shallow. The muted reaction reflected that traders see the BoE cutting soon—but not urgently—keeping Sterling supported above key levels for now.

Technically, GBP/CHF is still holding above 1.0582 temporary lower despite today's dip. Some more consolidations could still be seen. Nevertheless, near term outlook is staying firmly bearish with 1.0778 resistance intact. Break of 1.0582 will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1204 to 1.0658 from 1.0959 at 1.0413.

Japan’s exports rise for first time in five months, but U.S. demand still weak

Japan’s exports rose in September for the first time in five months, signaling tentative recovery in external demand even as shipments to the U.S. continued to contract sharply.

Exports climbed 4.2% yoy to JPY 9.41T, slightly below expectations of 4.6%. The rebound was driven largely by strength in Asia, where exports jumped 9.2%, including a 5.8% rise to China. In contrast, shipments to the U.S. fell -13.3%, with auto exports down -24.2%, extending months of weakness despite being a smaller drop than August’s 28.4% decline.

Imports also grew faster than expected, rising 3.3% yoy to JPY 9.65T, compared with forecasts of 0.6%. As a result, Japan posted a trade deficit of JPY 234.6B.

The data come just weeks after Washington finalized a new trade agreement with Tokyo, implementing a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, down from the initial 27.5% rate.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3346; (P) 1.3383; (R1) 1.3404; More...

GBP/USD dips notably today but stays above 1.3247 support. Fall from 1.3725 could extend lower, and break of 1.3247 will target 1.3140 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142). Strong support is expected there to contain downside to complete the corrective pattern from 1.3787. On the upside, break of 1.3170 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3526 resistance. Firm break there will target 1.3725/87 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. But strong resistance could emerge from 1.4248 (2021 high) to limit upside. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3191) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.