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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6466; (P) 0.6495; (R1) 0.6518; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.6542) holds. Below 0.6439 will target 0.6413 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403. Decisive break there will indicate bearish reversal after rejection by 0.6713 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 D EMA will keep the rise from 0.5913 intact, and bring retest of 0.6706 high.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1580; (P) 1.1618; (R1) 1.1637; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral, and fall from 1.1917 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.1540 will target 1.1390 support, or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, through, break of 1.1778 will target retest of 1.1917 high instead.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1290) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3346; (P) 1.3383; (R1) 1.3404; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall is mildly in favor as long as 1.3526 resistance holds. Break of 1.3247 will target 1.3140 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3787 at 1.3142). Strong support is expected there to contain downside to complete the corrective pattern from 1.3787. On the upside, break of 1.3526 will target 1.3725/87 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still seen as a corrective move. Further rally could be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 (2024 high) from 1.2099 (2025 low) at 1.4004. But strong resistance could emerge from 1.4248 (2021 high) to limit upside. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3191) will argue that a medium term top has already formed and bring deeper fall back to 1.2099.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7930; (P) 0.7949; (R1) 0.7982; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point, and further fall is in favor with 0.7984 minor resistance intact. On the downside, below 0.7872 will bring retest of 0.7828. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. However, break of 0.7984 will suggest that corrective pattern from 0.7828 is extending with another rising leg, and target 0.8075 again.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.87; (P) 151.53; (R1) 152.58; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 153.26. Break there will resume larger rally from 139.87 to 100% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 153.71. Firm break there would prompt upside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 158.80. on the downside, below 150.45 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

The forex market turned noticeably quieter in Asian session today, with traders taking a breather after the risk-on rally seen earlier in the week. Most major pairs and crosses remain confined within last week’s ranges, reflecting a more balanced tone as global sentiment stabilizes. Canadian Dollar continues to hold firm, extending support from Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected inflation data, while Aussie and Kiwi are also chalking up steady gains for the week.

By contrast, the Japanese Yen remains under heavy pressure, ranking as the weakest performer among the majors, followed by Euro and Sterling. Dollar and Swiss Franc are trading in the middle of the pack. The consolidation reflects a market still awaiting the next round of data to offer clearer trading cues, including Friday's U.S. CPI

Nevertheless, the day’s spotlight turns to UK inflation figures first, expected to show headline CPI rising to 4% year-on-year in September — its highest since early 2024 and double the BoE’s 2% target. An upside surprise would bolster the case for the BoE to hold rates steady at its November 6 meeting, reinforcing arguments from policy hawks like Chief Economist Huw Pill.

Meanwhile, even a mild downside surprise may not be sufficient to sway the MPC toward an immediate rate cut. The committee remains deeply divided, and with the UK Budget due on November 26, most members are likely to delay major policy moves until the fiscal outlook becomes clearer.

Elsewhere, trade developments are drawing attention in South Asia. Indian media outlet Mint reported that the U.S. is preparing to substantially reduce tariffs on Indian exports as part of an emerging trade deal with New Delhi. According to the report, tariffs could be slashed to 15–16% from the current 50%, contingent on India agreeing to scale back its purchases of Russian oil. The move would mark a significant thaw in bilateral trade ties.

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday that he had spoken with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who assured Washington that India would reduce its intake of Russian crude. In a post on X the following morning, Modi described the call as “productive,” saying both countries would continue to stand “united against terrorism in all its forms,” though he avoided any direct reference to energy imports.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.16%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.12%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.46%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.007 at 1.656. Overnight, DOW rose 0.47%. S&P 500 rose 0.00%. NASDAQ fell -0.16%. 10-year yield fell -0.023 to 3.963.

Japan’s exports rise for first time in five months, but U.S. demand still weak

Japan’s exports rose in September for the first time in five months, signaling tentative recovery in external demand even as shipments to the U.S. continued to contract sharply.

Exports climbed 4.2% yoy to JPY 9.41T, slightly below expectations of 4.6%. The rebound was driven largely by strength in Asia, where exports jumped 9.2%, including a 5.8% rise to China. In contrast, shipments to the U.S. fell -13.3%, with auto exports down -24.2%, extending months of weakness despite being a smaller drop than August’s 28.4% decline.

Imports also grew faster than expected, rising 3.3% yoy to JPY 9.65T, compared with forecasts of 0.6%. As a result, Japan posted a trade deficit of JPY 234.6B.

The data come just weeks after Washington finalized a new trade agreement with Tokyo, implementing a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, down from the initial 27.5% rate.

Gold, Silver in brief healthy consolidation as speculative heat cools

Gold and Silver saw heavy selling this week, pausing their record-setting advance as traders took profits and liquidity conditions improved. The decline has raised questions about whether the market is entering a deeper downturn, but technicals suggest the move is more of a healthy correction within a still-bullish backdrop.

Reports of increased Silver flows from the U.S. and China into London’s spot market added to the selling pressure, easing recent supply constraints that had intensified price momentum. The additional liquidity gave traders room to unwind speculative positions, accelerating the pullback but also helping to stabilize the market longer-term. This as part of a natural rebalancing after overbought conditions earlier in the month.

While the losses have been sharp, there is no clear structural threat to the broader uptrend. The latest pullback reflects profit-taking and short-term positioning adjustments rather than a breakdown in investor confidence. Demand for precious metals remains underpinned by global macro uncertainty, moderate inflation expectations, and central bank diversification away from U.S. assets.

Technically, Gold remains supported above 3,944.57 cluster, a level that separates sideway consolidation from deeper correction. As long as this level holds, consolidations from 4,381.22 should remain relatively brief. Sustained break above 4,381.22 would signal renewed strength, opening the path toward 161.8% projection of 2,584.24 to 3,499.79 from 3,267.90 at 4,749.25.

However, break of 3,944.57 would argue the latest rise leg from 3,267.90 has completed, and bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 3,781.78). Such a move would extend consolidation but not necessarily signal a full trend reversal.

Silver is showing a similar pattern. As long as 47.30 cluster holds, correction from 54.44 should stay shallow and short-lived. Another rise to 200% projection of 28.28 to 39.49 from 36.93 at 59.30 should be seen sooner rather than later.

However, a fall below 47.30, would trigger deeper pullback toward 55 D EMA (now at 44.76), before uptrend resumes.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.87; (P) 151.53; (R1) 152.58; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for retesting 153.26. Break there will resume larger rally from 139.87 to 100% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 153.71. Firm break there would prompt upside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 158.80. on the downside, below 150.45 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

The short-term Elliott Wave analysis for the S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) indicates the Index is currently in the final leg of wave (5), originating from the April 2025 low, before a larger three-wave correction unfolds. The decline to 6540.5 marked the completion of wave (4), followed by an upward turn in wave (5), structured as an impulse Elliott Wave pattern. From the wave (4) low, wave ((i)) concluded at 6718.5, with a subsequent pullback in wave ((ii)) ending at 6593.25. The rally in wave ((iii)) peaked at 6722.5, followed by a dip in wave ((iv)) to 6666. The final wave ((v)) reached 6766.75, completing wave 1 in a higher degree.

The ensuing wave 2 correction developed as a double three Elliott Wave structure. From the wave 1 peak, wave ((w)) declined to 6651.5, followed by a wave ((x)) rally to 6750.5. The final wave ((y)) dropped to 6571.25, concluding wave 2. The Index has since resumed its upward trajectory in wave 3. In the near term, wave ((i)) of 3 is expected to conclude soon, followed by a corrective wave ((ii)) to retrace the cycle from the October 17 low before continuing higher. As long as the pivot at 6540.5 remains intact, expect pullbacks to find support in a 3, 7, or 11 swing, setting the stage for further gains.

S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) Latest 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 10.22.2025

ES Elliott Wave Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jULAXYRjzpU

Gold and Silver saw heavy selling this week, pausing their record-setting advance as traders took profits and liquidity conditions improved. The decline has raised questions about whether the market is entering a deeper downturn, but technicals suggest the move is more of a healthy correction within a still-bullish backdrop.

Reports of increased Silver flows from the U.S. and China into London’s spot market added to the selling pressure, easing recent supply constraints that had intensified price momentum. The additional liquidity gave traders room to unwind speculative positions, accelerating the pullback but also helping to stabilize the market longer-term. This as part of a natural rebalancing after overbought conditions earlier in the month.

While the losses have been sharp, there is no clear structural threat to the broader uptrend. The latest pullback reflects profit-taking and short-term positioning adjustments rather than a breakdown in investor confidence. Demand for precious metals remains underpinned by global macro uncertainty, moderate inflation expectations, and central bank diversification away from U.S. assets.

Technically, Gold remains supported above 3,944.57 cluster, a level that separates sideway consolidation from deeper correction. As long as this level holds, consolidations from 4,381.22 should remain relatively brief. Sustained break above 4,381.22 would signal renewed strength, opening the path toward 161.8% projection of 2,584.24 to 3,499.79 from 3,267.90 at 4,749.25.

However, break of 3,944.57 would argue the latest rise leg from 3,267.90 has completed, and bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 3,781.78). Such a move would extend consolidation but not necessarily signal a full trend reversal.

Silver is showing a similar pattern. As long as 47.30 cluster holds, correction from 54.44 should stay shallow and short-lived. Another rise to 200% projection of 28.28 to 39.49 from 36.93 at 59.30 should be seen sooner rather than later.

However, a fall below 47.30, would trigger deeper pullback toward 55 D EMA (now at 44.76), before uptrend resumes.

Japan’s exports rose in September for the first time in five months, signaling tentative recovery in external demand even as shipments to the U.S. continued to contract sharply.

Exports climbed 4.2% yoy to JPY 9.41T, slightly below expectations of 4.6%. The rebound was driven largely by strength in Asia, where exports jumped 9.2%, including a 5.8% rise to China. In contrast, shipments to the U.S. fell -13.3%, with auto exports down -24.2%, extending months of weakness despite being a smaller drop than August’s 28.4% decline.

Imports also grew faster than expected, rising 3.3% yoy to JPY 9.65T, compared with forecasts of 0.6%. As a result, Japan posted a trade deficit of JPY 234.6B.

The data come just weeks after Washington finalized a new trade agreement with Tokyo, implementing a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, down from the initial 27.5% rate.

Gold prices saw a sharp decline on Tuesday, on track for their steepest daily drop in five years, as investors sold the precious metal.

A stronger US dollar and the decision by traders to take profits caused the price to fall significantly. This was compounded by US President Trump who softened his stance regarding a deal with China, reassuring the public that everything would "be fine" and that the US wanted to "help China, not hurt it." This slight shift in tone offered some relief to nervous markets and weighed on safe haven appeal.

Prices scaled an all-time peak of $4,381.21 on Monday with dips being bought aggressively over the past week. We have seen some volatile pullbacks in that timeframe whenever a fresh high has been printed which could have been a sign of some nerves given the precious metals impressive rally in 2025.

Some of the hesitation and the pullback today may be attributed to profit taking coupled with optimism around a US-China deal. There is also a possibility that market participants may want to unwind some positions ahead of the US inflation data release on Friday.

Analysts at Citi said in a note they expect an end to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, as well as US-China trade deal announcements, which could further lead to improved sentiment and potentially weigh on Gold prices.

Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, Gold did print a double top this morning on the four-hour timeframe with a break below the neckline occurring as well.

Now looking at the potential target prices based on the rules of a double top pattern and the price would be around the $4020/oz mark.

This suggests that Gold's fall may not be over and further downside could materialize in the days ahead.

We could get two scenarios for Gold prices next move. The first one could be a move higher after today's fall which could retest the neckline break around the $4220/oz mark.

Now a rejection at this level could be the start of the next leg to the downside which could see price reach the pattern completion around the $4020 mark.

The second scenario may see Gold bulls fail to push prices higher and thus we could see prices continue to decline immediately toward the $4020/oz target without any pullback.

At this stage both scenarios remain viable and price action on the one-hour and 15-minute charts may be monitored for clues.

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, October 21, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD

Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on Gold with 76% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that Gold prices could continue to slide in the near-term.