Sample Category Title

DXY:

On the H4 timeframe, prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our descending trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our 1st resistance at 95.580 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and graphical overlap towards our 1st support at 95.216 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI and Ichimoku clouds are also showing bearish momentum.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 95.580
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 95.137

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the H4 chart, prices are consolidating in a triangle pattern. We see potential for further bullish continuation from our 1st support at 1810.515 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1830.385 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI are portraying bullish momentum, further supporting our bullish bias.

Areas of consideration:

• 4h 1st support at 1810.515
• 4h 1st resistance at 1830.385

GBP/USD

On the H4 chart , price is trading in an ascending channel , price is in the middle of the 1st resistance level of 1.36644 which is also 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 1st support level of 1.34562 which is also 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially go to its 1st resistance level. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st resistance at 1.36644
• H4 1st support at 1.34562

USD/CHF:

On the H4 timeframe,in reference to last week’s analysis price indeed bounced at the 1st Support level. Price is abiding to the daily ascending channel signifying an overall bullish momentum. We can expect the price to bounce from 1st Support in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement towards 1st Resistance in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and previous swing high. Our bullish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it is at the support level. Traders should wait for prices to swing higher or lower before entering.

Areas of consideration:

• Watch 1st Support at 0.91750
• Watch 1st Resistance at 0.93175

EUR/USD :

On the H4 chart, price is near the 1st resistance level of 1.14816 which is also 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially dip to the 1st support level of 1.13523 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as price is trading below it.

Areas of consideration :

• H4 1st support at 1.13523
• H4 1st resistance at 1.14816

USD/JPY:

On the H4 chart,in reference to last week’s analysis, price indeed bounced at 1st Support and it is reaching our potential 1st Resistance level @ 115.598.

Price is trading in an ascending channel signifying an overall bullish momentum, however, we can expect a short-term bearish drop from 1st Resistance level in line with horizontal resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards 1st Support in line with previous swing low and 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line is at the resistance level.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st support at 114.025
• H4 1st resistance at 115.598

AUD/USD:

On the H4 timeframe, in reference to last week’s analysis, price indeed dropped from the resistance level. Price is abiding to the descending channel, signifying an overall bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from 1st Resistance in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards 1st Support in line with previous swing low and 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it is abiding to the descending trendline resistance.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st Support level 0.69865
• H4 1st resistance level 0.71403

NZD/USD:

On the H4 timeframe, prices were on bearish momentum and are abiding to our descending trendline. We see potential for prices to dip from our 1st resistance at 0.66488 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 0.65293 in line with 100% Fibonacci retracement. Our bias is further supported by prices facing resistance in the Ichimoku Clouds and RSI being at levels where dips previously occurred. Alternatively, our stop loss will be placed at 2nd resistance at 0.67012 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.66488
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.65293

USD/CAD:

On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku cloud, we see the potential for a bounce from our 1st support at 1.26519 in line with horizontal swing low support and 100% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st resistance at 1.277779 in line with horizontal swing high resistance. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 1.25644, in line with the horizontal overlap support.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.26519
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1.277779

OIL:

On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku cloud, we see the potential for a bounce from our 1st support at 91.27 in line with horizontal overlap support towards our 1st resistance at 95.76 in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and -61.8% Fibonacci expansion. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 88.13, in line with the horizontal swing low support.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 95.76
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 91.27

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, signifying an overall bullish momentum. We can expect price to rise to our 1st resistance at 35728 in line horizontal graphical swing high resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from our 1st support in line with horizontal overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 35024. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support, which coincides with 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 34430.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 35728
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 35024

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7082; (P) 0.7106; (R1) 0.7147; More...

Intraday bias sin AUD/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. On the upside, above 0.7167 will resume the rebound to 0.7313 resistance. Firm break there will be an indication of bullish reversal. On the downside, sustained trading below 0.6991 will extend the down trend from 0.8006. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7555 to 0.6992 from 0.7313 at 0.6750.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2633; (P) 1.2694; (R1) 1.2731; More...

Range trading continues in USD/CAD and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 1.2648 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 1.2795 will resume the rally from 1.2448 to 1.2963 resistance next. However, break of 1.2648 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2448 support instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1414; (P) 1.1440; (R1) 1.1465; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral as it failed to break through 1.1482 resistance for now. A medium term bottom could be in place at 1.1120, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 1.1482 resistance will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 to 1.1120 at 1.1589 next. Sustained break there will argue that whole fall from 1.2348 has completed too and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1879. On the down, however, break of 1.1265 support will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 1.1120 low instead.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is seen as a leg inside the range pattern from 1.2555 (2018 high). Sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 1.1613) will argue that it has completed and stronger rise would be seen back towards top of the range between 1.2348 and 1.2555. However, firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3499; (P) 1.3527; (R1) 1.3564; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.3627 will resume the rebound to 1.3748 resistance. Firm break there will revive the bullish case that correction from 1.4248 has completed with three waves down to 1.3158. Further rally should then be seen to retest 1.4248 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.3356 will bring retest of 1.3158 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164 holds, up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.3164 will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9218; (P) 0.9240; (R1) 0.9258; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as range trading continues. Further rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 0.9090 support holds. break of 0.9372 will resume the choppy rally from 0.8925 to 0.9471 high. However, break of 0.9090 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8925 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds. Larger down trend could still extend through 0.8756 (2021 low). However, firm break of 0.9471 will argue that the trend has already reversed and rebound the rally from 0.8756 with another impulsive move.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.89; (P) 115.13; (R1) 115.35; More...

USD/JPY rises slightly today but stays in range of 114.14/115.68, and intraday bias remains neutral first. Overall, consolidation pattern from 116.34 is still extending. On the upside, break of 115.68 will resume the rebound from 113.46 to retest 116.34 high first. On the downside, break of 114.14 should extend the consolidation with another falling leg through 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.21) holds.

Dollar strengthens mildly in Asia today but overall markets have been quiet this week so far. Euro continues to consolidate last week's sharp gain, ahead of a key near term resistance against the greenback. Commodity currencies are the slightly stronger ones. Major benchmark global treasury yields continue to rally while stocks tread water. There might not be clear directions in the markets until US consumer inflation data later in the week.

Technically, Gold's recovery from 1780.10 was admittedly stronger than expected, even though upside momentum is unconvincing. Despite the steepness of the fall from 1853.70 to 1780.10, Gold is not ready to breakout to the downside. Instead, current development suggest that it's recent price actions were just forming a symmetric triangle pattern. Some more time is needed to break out from range of 1780.10/1853.70. But such breakout could reveal which direction the greenback is taking too.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.24%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.56%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.39%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.61%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.012 at 0.212. Overnight, DOW rose 0.00%. S&P 500 dropped -0.37%. NASDAQ dropped -0.58%. 10-year yield dropped -0.014 to 1.916.

Australia NAB business confidence rose to 3 in Jan, strong recovery expected

Australia NAB business confidence rose from -12 to 3 in January, turned positive. Business conditions, however, dropped from 8 to 3. Looking at some details, trading conditions dropped from 14 to 7. Profitability conditions dropped from 10 to 2. Employment conditions dropped from 2 to -1 and turned negative.

"Overall, the January survey shows significant disruption to business activity from the spread of the Omicron variant, albeit impacts on businesses were less severe than in past outbreaks,"said NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster. "However, we continue to expect a strong recovery as case numbers come down."

RBNZ Orr: An innovative approach needed to support a more efficient and resilient cash system

RBNZ is currently commencing Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) proof-of-concept design work, which is a "multi-stage and multi-year effort". The consultation on an issues paper Future of Money – Cash System Redesign, which closes on March 7, received 190 submissions so far.

Governor Adrian Orr said in a speech, "we must decide how best to use of digital technology to modernize central bank money, while we continue to ensure cash remains an option for those who need it. An innovative approach is needed to support a more efficient and resilient cash system, and the changes required are potentially far reaching".

"The technology exists now to implement a CBDC, but it needs to be well designed. At a basic hygiene level, a CBDC must be user-friendly, resilient to cyber and other operational risks, and enable privacy. These features promote widespread trust and use."

Elsewhere

Japan labor cash earnings dropped -0.2% yoy in December versus expectation of 0.9% yoy. Household spending dropped -0.2% yoy versus expectation of 0.3% yoy. Current account surplus narrowed to JPY 0.79T in December, versus expectation of JPY 1.16T.

Looking ahead, France trade balance and Italy retail sales will be released in European session. Later in the day, both US and Canada will release trade balance.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.89; (P) 115.13; (R1) 115.35; More...

USD/JPY rises slightly today but stays in range of 114.14/115.68, and intraday bias remains neutral first. Overall, consolidation pattern from 116.34 is still extending. On the upside, break of 115.68 will resume the rebound from 113.46 to retest 116.34 high first. On the downside, break of 114.14 should extend the consolidation with another falling leg through 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.21) holds.

Economic Indicators Update

Australia NAB business confidence rose from -12 to 3 in January, turned positive. Business conditions, however, dropped from 8 to 3. Looking at some details, trading conditions dropped from 14 to 7. Profitability conditions dropped from 10 to 2. Employment conditions dropped from 2 to -1 and turned negative.

"Overall, the January survey shows significant disruption to business activity from the spread of the Omicron variant, albeit impacts on businesses were less severe than in past outbreaks,"said NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster. "However, we continue to expect a strong recovery as case numbers come down."

Full release here.

RBNZ is currently commencing Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) proof-of-concept design work, which is a "multi-stage and multi-year effort". The consultation on an issues paper Future of Money – Cash System Redesign, which closes on March 7, received 190 submissions so far.

Governor Adrian Orr said in a speech, "we must decide how best to use of digital technology to modernize central bank money, while we continue to ensure cash remains an option for those who need it. An innovative approach is needed to support a more efficient and resilient cash system, and the changes required are potentially far reaching".

"The technology exists now to implement a CBDC, but it needs to be well designed. At a basic hygiene level, a CBDC must be user-friendly, resilient to cyber and other operational risks, and enable privacy. These features promote widespread trust and use."

Full release here.