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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8516; (P) 0.8542; (R1) 0.8558; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.8593 will resume the rise from 0.8401 short term bottom to 0.8656 key resistance. Firm break there will argue that whole down trend from 0.9499 has completed. On the downside, however, break of 0.8459 minor support will bring retest of 0.8401 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8656 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. However, firm break of 0.8656 resistance would argue that a medium term bottom was already formed. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.8861 support turned resistance to confirm completion of the corrective pattern.

General trend

• RBA mins due on Tues at 12:30 am GMT, Lowe to also comment on recent inflation trends on Tues [at 2:30 GMT].
• Australia Q3 wage data is due on Wed (Nov 17th).
• US equity FUTs pare gain.
• Nikkei is also off of the best levels.
• Japanese companies due to report earnings include Mitsubishi UFJ.
• Shanghai Composite ended morning trading slightly lower (-0.3%); Property index declined by >2%, new home prices dropped for the 2nd straight month.
• Beijing Stock Exchange begins trading, multiple cos. were halted after trading limit up.
• Hang Seng has pared the opening gain; Property index dropped as developers continue to announce stock offerings.
• S&P ASX 200 has traded slightly higher; the Materials index has been supported by results from Incitec; REITs rise amid drop in bond yields.
• Companies due to report during the NY morning include FreightCar America, Tyson Foods, Warner Music Group.

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened -0.0%.
• ELD.AU Reports FY21 (A$) Net 149.8M v 124.2M y/y, underlying EBIT 166.5M v 119.4M y/y; Rev 2.55B v 2.09B y.
• (AU) RBA Assist Gov (Economic) Ellis and Head of Economics Jones: Australian builders are keeping up with supply, but Australians are looking to live in larger homes than pre pandemic.
• (NZ) Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief economist and board member, Yuong Ha, to leave after 25 years, effective after Feb 2022 Monetary Policy Statement.

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened +0.7%.
• (JP) JAPAN Q3 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -0.8% V -0.2%E; GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: -3.0% V -0.7%E.
• (JP) Japan latest economic stimulus to be compiled on Nov 19th expected to be ¥40T (prior speculated ¥30T) – press.
• (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Kuroda: Closely watching economic impact of COVID, reiterates won't hesitate to add easing if needed, recovery likely to become clearer in H1 of 2022.
• (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Kuroda: No decision made on fate of BOJ's pandemic relief loan scheme after current March deadline, no decision on April, can expect a pick up in consumer spending, but pace is uncertain.
• (JP) Japan Econ Min Yamagiwa: Economy is continuing to pick up, but pace is weakening and needs policy support, economic stimulus will include measures to address high energy prices, chip and other supply issues - comments following GDP release.
• (US) Commerce Sec Raimondo: Japan relations are critically important.
• (JP) Japan Sept Final Industrial Production M/M: -5.4% v -5.4% prelim; Y/Y: -2.3% v -2.3% prelim; Capacity Utilization M/M: -7.4% v -3.9% prior.
• 6502.JP Confirms strategic reorganization to separate into three standalone companies to enhance shareholder value, to separate into three standalone companies (Friday after the close).

Korea

• Kospi opened +0.7%.
• (KR) North Korea to hold conference on the country's "three-revolution movement" aimed at developing its ideology, technology and culture - State media.
• (KR) South Korea 9M Electric vehicle (EV) sales 71.0K, +96% y/y.

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened +0.4%; Shanghai Composite opened +0.1%.
• (CN) CHINA OCT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 3.5% V 3.0%E.
• (CN) CHINA OCT RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 4.9% V 3.7%E; YTD Y/Y: 14.9% V 14.7%E.
• (CN) China Oct Surveyed Jobless Rate: 4.9% v 4.9%e.
• (CN) CHINA OCT FIXED URBAN ASSETS YTD Y/Y: 6.1% V 6.2%E.
• (CN) CHINA OCT PROPERTY INVESTMENT YTD Y/Y: 7.2% V 7.8%E.
• (CN) China National Bureau of Stats (NBS): More effort is needed to maintain economic stability, periodic structural problems still exist in the economy, consumer inflation to remain mild.
• (CN) CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY1.0T V CNY1.0T MATURING IN 1-YEAR MEDIUM-TERM LENDING FACILITY (MLF) AT 2.95% V 2.95% PRIOR.
• (CN) CHINA OCT NEW HOMES PRICES M/M: -0.3% V -0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.8% PRIOR.
• (CN) China Govt said to be planning to limit steel production in Hebei province for 4 months to 30%, effective Nov 15th - Sina.
• (CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY10B in 7-day reverse repos v CNY100B prior; Net drain CNY90B v Net CNY0B prior.
• (CN) US President Biden and China President Xi confirm virtual meeting for Monday, Nov 15th, 19:45ET.
• (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.3896 v 6.4065 prior.
• (CN) Dalian (port city in China) has been hit hard by 3 round of cold-chain related [COVID] outbreaks - Global Times.

Other

• (EU) New COVID variant know as B.1.X or B.1.640 found in France, UK, Switzerland, Scotland and Italy - French press.
• 2409.TW Innolux and AU Optronics said to be cutting capacity utilization due to weak Q4 demand - local press.

North America

• (US) Fed's Kashkari (dove, non-voter): Fed has taken appropriate steps in face of inflation; Sees higher inflation continuing over next few months.
• (US) White House econ adviser Deese: Rising prices is not a result of Biden administration's policies.
• NVDA UK reportedly may order in-depth probe into Nvidia's acquisition of Arm; Announcement could come upcoming week - UK press.
• EDU Gives business update: Planning to cease offering tutoring services related to academic subjects to students from kindergarten through grade nine at all learning centers across China by the end of 2021, due to implementation rules, regulations and measures promulgated by competent authorities.
• (US) US Treasury Sec Yellen reiterated that US inflation will not normalize until late 2022 - CBS (update).

Europe

• (UK) Govt may announce £1.0T post Brexit export strategy – FT.
• (DE) Three state health ministers in Germany have called on parties negotiating new govt to prolong states' power to implement stricter pandemic measures such as lockdowns or school closures as Germany COVID cases continue to hit record highs – press.
• (UK) Nov Rightmove House Prices M/M: -0.6% v +1.8% prior (biggest decline since height of COVID); Y/Y: 6.3% v 6.5% prior; Pre-Christmas lull will be short lived.

Levels as of 00:15ET

• Hang Seng -0.2%; Shanghai Composite -0.5%; Kospi +1.1%; Nikkei225 +0.5%; ASX 200 +0.4%.
• Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.2%, Dax -0.0%; FTSE100 -0.1%.
• EUR 1.1464-1.1441; JPY 114.04-113.75 ;AUD 0.7346-0.7323; NZD 0.7051-0.7030.
• Commodity Futures: Gold -0.5% at $1,859/oz; Crude Oil -0.4% at $79.34/brl; Copper -0.7% at $4.42/lb.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5569; (P) 1.5644; (R1) 1.5687; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.5585 minor support should confirm rejection by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5755). Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside to extend the fall from 1.6434 through 1.5354. On upside, however, sustained break of 55 day EMA will argue that whole fall from 1.6434 has completed and bring stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0528; (P) 1.0550; (R1) 1.0564; More....

EUR/CHF's breach of 1.0532 suggests down trend resumption. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall from 1.1149 should target 100% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0481. On the upside, however, break of 1.0596 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound back towards 1.0678 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, current downside momentum argues that fall from 1.1149 is probably resuming the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next focus is 1.0505 (2020 low). Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223 next. Strong support from 1.0505 will bring rebound first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0936 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1431; (P) 1.1446; (R1) 1.1460; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside at this point. Current decline from 1.2265 is in progress. Next target is 100% projection 1.1908 to 1.1523 from 1.1691  at 1.1306, which is close to long term fibonacci level at 1.1289. We'd pay attention to bottoming signal there. On the upside, above 1.1512 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But overall near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.1691 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 could pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3370; (P) 1.3398; (R1) 1.3442; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.3351 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.3606 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.3351 will extend the decline from 1.4248 to 1.3164 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, the structure of the fall from 1.4248 suggests that it's a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) only. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high) will add to the case of long term bullish reversal. However, sustained trading below 1.3164 will revive some medium term bearishness and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9197; (P) 0.9217; (R1) 0.9233; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidation below 0.9236 temporary top first. On the upside, break of 0.9236 will resume the rise from 0.9084 to 0.9367 resistance. On the downside, below 0.9172 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 0.9084 instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.69; (P) 114.00; (R1) 114.23; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the upside, sustained break of 114.69 will resume larger up trend for 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. In case the consolidation pattern from 114.69 extends with another fall, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2526; (P) 1.2566; (R1) 1.2589; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.2603 temporary top. As noted before, fall form 1.2947 has possibly completed with three waves down to 1.2886. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.2386 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.2603 will resume the rally to 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. However, break of 1.2386 will revive near term bearishness and bring retest of 1.2886 low.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7294; (P) 0.7314; (R1) 0.7352; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the consolidation above 0.7275 temporary low. But further decline is in favor as long as 0.7431 minor resistance holds. Rebound from 0.7105 could be complete with three waves up to 0.7555, and fall from 0.8006 is still in progress. On the downside, below 0.7275 will target 0.7169 support first, and then 0.7105. However, break of 0.7431 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.7555.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we're seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.