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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8435; (P) 0.8449; (R1) 0.8474; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral with current recovery, and some consolidations could be seen. But further fall is still expected. Break of 0.8420 temporary low will resume the larger down trend from 0.9499 to 0.8276 key long term support next. On the upside, though, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 0.8533) will bring stronger rebound back to 0.8656 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8656 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. However, firm break of 0.8656 resistance would argue that a medium term bottom was already formed. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.8861 support turned resistance to confirm completion of the corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5606; (P) 1.5662; (R1) 1.5721; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays mildly on the downside despite loss of downside momentum. Current fall from 1.6434 should target 161.8% projection of 1.6434 to 1.5907 from 1.6232 at 1.5379 next. On the upside, above 1.5753 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.5907 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) only. With 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 intact, such down trend is expected to resume at a later stage. Firm break of 1.5250 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. In any case, sustained break of 1.6988 fibonacci level is needed to indicate long term reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0708; (P) 1.0722; (R1) 1.0740; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral as consolidation from 1.0678 is extending. Further decline is expected with 1.0750 minor resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.0678 will turn bias back to the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0655. Sustained break there will pave the way towards 100% projection at 1.0481. On the upside, break of 1.0750 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 55 week EMA maintains medium term bearishness. Fall from 1.1149 (2021 high) is currently seen as the second leg of the patter from 1.0505 (2020 low) first. Hence, in case of deeper fall, we'd look for strong support from 1.0505 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 1.0505 will resume the long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Also, medium term outlook will now be neutral at best as long as 1.0936 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2348; (P) 1.2379; (R1) 1.2408; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral as consolidation from 1.2335 temporary low is in progress. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.2592 support turned resistance to bring another fall. As noted before, rebound from 1.2005 should be finished at 1.2947. Below 1.2335 temporary low will target 161.8% projection of 1.2947 to 1.2492 from 1.2894 at 1.2158 next.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 argues that rebound from 1.2005 is merely a corrective rise, which is complete. More importantly, the down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high). is not over yet. Sustained break of 1.2005 will extend the down trend to next long term fibonacci level at 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. In any case, outlook will not turn bullish as long as 1.2947 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7382; (P) 0.7409; (R1) 0.7440; More....

AUD/USD's rise resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.7477 resistance. Firm break there will argue that larger decline from 0.8006 has completed and turn near term outlook bullish. Next target is 100% projection of 0.7105 to 0.7477 from 0.7169 at 0.7541, and then 161.8% projection at 0.7771. On the downside, though, below 0.7377 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we're seeing price action from 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.08; (P) 114.26; (R1) 114.51; More...

Further rise is expected in USD/JPY despite loss of upside momentum. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.18 next. On the downside, break of 113.20 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9217; (P) 0.9245; (R1) 0.9266; More....

No change in USD/CHF's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.9193 will resume the fall from 0.9367 to 0.9162 support first. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 0.9162 will argue that whole rise from 0.8925 has completed and target this support. On the upside, break of 0.9312 support will bring retest of 0.9367 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not completed yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum of assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3703; (P) 1.3734; (R1) 1.3759; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the upside as rise from 1.3410 is still in progress, for 1.3912 key structural resistance. Firm break there will indicate that the correction from 1.4248 is complete with three waves down to 1.3410. Further rally would then be seen to retest 1.4248 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.3567 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3410 low instead.

In the bigger picture, the structure of the fall from 1.4248 suggests that it's a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) only. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high) will add to the case of long term bullish reversal. However, sustained trading below 1.3164 will revive some medium term bearishness and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD started a decent increase above the 1.3650 resistance.
• A major rising channel is forming with support near 1.3690 on the 4-hours chart.
• EUR/USD is facing an uphill task near the 1.1650 region.
• Gold price declined heavily from the $1,800 resistance zone.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a steady increase above the 1.3650 resistance against the US Dollar. GBP/USD broke the 1.3700 resistance zone to enter a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair was able to recover above the 1.3700 resistance. The pair surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3912 swing high to 1.3415 low.

It settled above the 1.3720 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

The pair is now facing resistance near the 1.3800 zone. A close above 1.3800 could open the doors for a larger increase. The next key resistance is near the 1.3880 level. Any more gains could lift the pair towards the 1.3950 level.

An immediate support is near the 1.370 level. There is also a major rising channel forming with support near 1.3690 on the same chart. The next major support is near 1.3650.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair could start a steady recovery wave if there is a clear break above the 1.1650 resistance zone.

Economic Releases

• US Housing Starts for Sep 2021 (MoM) – Forecast 1.620M, versus 1.615M previous.
• US Building Permits for Sep 2021 (MoM) – Forecast 1.680M, versus 1.728M previous.

STOCKS

Equities are mixed globally. While Dow and Dax has seen a dip and could see a corrective fall before bouncing back from there; Nikkei, Shanghai, Nifty and Sensex look bullish and could head towards respective resistances soon. Nikkei and Shanghai can head towards 29500/750 and 3600 respectively while Nifty can test 18600 and Sensex can rise to 62000 before a fall is seen in the medium term.

Dow (35258.61, -36.15, -0.10%) has come down slightly today after rising sharply for three consecutive days. The view of seeing a test of 36000 while above 35000 remains intact. However, if a break below 35000 is seen a corrective fall towards 34000/33750 looks possible.

DAX (15474.47, -112.89, -0.72%) has dipped slightly. The index needs to sustain above 15500, to see a rise towards 15900/16000 in the coming sessions. Watch price action near 15500 for the near term.

Nikkei (29213.04, +187.58, +0.65%) has risen sharply today. As mentioned previously 29500/29750 is a strong resistance zone which can cap the upside and send the index down to 27500. If Nikkei manages to breaks 29500/29750 then next level to watch will be 30000/31000.

Shanghai (3586.93, +18.79, +0.53%) has risen today. The range of 3500-3575/3600 is still intact. Only a strong break above 3600 can take the index towards 3700 else a decline from 3600 can be seen. Watch price action near 3600.

Nifty (18477.05, +138.50, +0.76%) tested 18543 before coming down yesterday. While above 18400, an initial testing of 18600 is possible. A corrective fall from 18600 can be seen towards 18200/18000 in the coming sessions. Only a break above 18600 would open up targets of 18800-19000 on the upside.

Sensex (61765.59, +45964, +0.75%) surged yesterday, rising beyond our expectations and has room to rise upto 62000 which is a strong resistance and can cap the upside for now producing a corrective fall towards 60000 soon. Watch price action near 62000.

COMMODITIES

Commodities are strong on Dollar weakness. Crude prices have dipped a bit but we need to see if the fall would sustain in the near term. Gold has risen well and needs to sustain above 1780 in order to move up towards 1800-1840 eventually. Silver can rise to 24.50-25 on the upside while above 23.50. Copper is bullish towards 4.90.

Brent (84.26) has fallen today due to the rise in gasoline stocks. The resistance at 86/87 has held well. A corrective fall towards $82/80 can be seen before we see a bounce again.

WTI (81.66) has also come down today. View is bearish while below $82/83 to see a fall towards $78 in the coming sessions.

Gold (1773.70) has risen again today. A strong rise past 1780 and 1800 is needed for the view to be bullish towards 1820/40. Support near 1750/60 holds well for now.

Silver (23.51) has risen and a test of 24.50/25 looks possible on the upside.

Copper (4.7540) continues to rise sharply and has scope to test 4.90 on the upside before reversing from there. Immediate view is bullish.

FOREX

Dollar Index has declines and could signal reversal on a break below 93.75/60. That could pull up Euro above 1.1650 indicating near term bullishness. EURJPY looks strong towards 134 while Aussie and Pound are headed towards 0.7450 and 1.38. Dollar Yen needs to break above 115 to rise further towards 117/118 else a decline looks possible from 115. USDINR could fall on strength in Euro and Chinese Yuan. USDCNY can see a slow fall to 6.3750 on a break below 6.41.

Dollar Index (93.77) has come down to test immediate support near 93.75/60 and while that holds we may expect a bounce back towards 94.75. A decisive break below 93.75 would indicate initiate signal for a fresh reversal.

Euro (1.1638) has broken above 1.1625 and is headed towards 1.1650 which needs to break on the upside to signal near term bullishness. Else while below 1.1650, view remains bearish.

EURJPY (132.90) continues to move higher. A test of 134 looks possible in the near term before a fall from there is seen.

Aussie (0.7439) looks bullish for a rise towards 0.7450 which is an immediate resistance above current levels. A break above 0.7450 if seen will be further bullish on A0.75-0.76. Watch price action near 0.7450 in the very near term.

Pound (1.3759) is rising towards 1.38 from where a rejection if seen can take it down towards 1.37-1.3650. A break above 1.38 would be bullish towards 1.39. Watch price action near 1.38 which looks likely to hold.

Dollar-Yen (114.17) has dipped slightly and could see a pull back while below 115. A break above 115 would open up chances of a rise to 117-118 in the medium term. View is bullish while above 114-115.

USDCNY (6.4156) has fallen as expected. A break below 6.41 if seen would initiate a slow fall towards 6.3750 soon. Watch price action near 6.41 to see if a bounce takes place from here.

USDINR (75.3450) could fall a bit today towards support near 75.20/10 as Euro strength and Yuan strength could favor Rupee. Also a dip in Crude prices could favor Rupee strength. But we do not negate a test of 75.75/80 while above 75.10.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury Yields hovers higher. 1.65% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) are crucial resistances which we expect to hold and produce a reversal going forward. It’s a wait and watch for now. The German yields have moved up at the near-end while at the far-end the yields are turning down as expected. A further fall is possible in the coming weeks. The 10Yr GoI has broken above 6.36% contrary to our expectation and can now move up further while this break sustains. Our earlier view of seeing a reversal stands negated. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand is at the upper end of its 5.66%-5.76% range and needs to see if it can break the range on the upside.

The US 2Yr (0.40%), 5Yr (1.15%) and the 10Yr (1.58%) Treasury yields remain stable at levels seen in early Asian trades yesterday while the 30Yr (2.02%) has dipped slightly. Our view remains the same. There is room to test the crucial resistances at 1.65% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) from where we expect the yields to reverse lower. However, a strong fall below 1.5% (10Yr) and 2% (30Yr) is necessarily needed to turn the outlook bearish and negate completely the chances of breaking above 1.65% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr).

The German 2Yr (-0.64) and 5Yr (-0.47%) yields have moved up while the 10Yr (-0.15%) and 30Yr (0.23%) have dipped slightly. The resistance at -0.1%/-0.05% (10Yr) and 0.35%/0.45% (30Yr) has held well and we expect a fresh fall to -0.2% (10Yr) and 0.2% (30Yr) initially and then further deeper eventually over the medium-term.

The Indian 10Yr GoI (6.3873%) has risen past 6.36% contrary to our expectation. While this break sustains a further rise to 6.45%-6.5% is possible. Our earlier view of seeing a reversal to 6.2% and lower levels will get negated in that case.

The 5Yr GoI (5.7501%) has moved up sharply towards the upper end of its 5.66%-5.76% range as expected. A break above 5.76% will pave way for 5.78%-5.80% and 5.82% in the coming days. That will reduce the chances of seeing a downside break below 5.66% that we have been expecting.