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At mid-day on Wednesday, the EUR/USD plummeted, as it passed one weekly simple pivot point after another until it found support in the 1.1590 level. By Thursday's European morning hours, the rate had been consolidating by trading sideways between the 1.1590 and 1.1610 levels.

In the near term future, the rate was most likely going to decline, as it had no technical support. Due to that reason, round exchange rate levels are highly likely going to provide support. Namely, the 1.1550 and 1.1500 could stop a potential decline of the EUR/USD.

However, the rate can be considered oversold, as it has left far above it the 55, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages. In the case of a potential recovery, the pair would face the resistance of the weekly S3 and S2 simple pivot points at 1.1613 and 1.1648.

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated in a speech that "consumption is expected to pick up if further progress in vaccinations allow society to curb infections, while resuming economic activity."

"But the timing and pace of recovery in consumption remains highly uncertain and could change depending on how the pandemic unfolds," he added.

"We will scrutinise the impact of the pandemic on the economy and take additional easing steps without hesitation if needed," he pledged again.

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped from 113.5 to 110.6 in September, slightly above expectation of 110.3. That's the fourth decline in a row. The index remains above its long-term average, but the slowing in recovery is "likely to continue in the coming months".

KOF also said: "The recurring decline is primarily attributable to bundles of indicators concerning foreign demand. Indicators of the manufacturing sector send an additional negative signal, followed by indicators of the economic sector other services. By contrast, indicators from the finance and insurance sector are providing slightly positive impulses."

Full release here.

UK Q2 GDP growth was finalized at 5.5% qoq, revised up from 4.8% qoq. GDP remained -3.3% below the pre-pandemic level at Q4 2019.

In output terms, the largest contributors to this increase were from wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food service activities, education and human health, and social work activities.

There were increases in all main components of expenditure, with the largest contribution from household consumption.

Full release here.

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1682
Prev Close: 1.1596
% chg. over the last day: -0.74%

The EUR/USD exchange rate decreased to its lowest level in 14 months as the energy crisis in Europe, caused by a sharp increase in natural gas prices, raises concerns about the strength of the economic recovery in the Eurozone and increases negative pressure on the currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1564, 1.1453
Resistance levels: 1.1671, 1.1717, 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD trend has changed to bearish. On the background of the weakness of the European currency, the quotes went down sharply. The price has broken through and consolidated below the priority change level. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average, as the price has deviated strongly from the middle line. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers' initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1717 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.09.30:

• German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
• US FOMC Member Williams’s Speech at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• US FOMC Member Bostic’s Speech at 18:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3527
Prev Close: 1.3425
% chg. over the last day: -0.75%

The British pound is also rapidly losing its position amid the dollar index rising. In addition to problems with getting food to the store shelves and fuel to the gas stations, energy problems have also been added. Three more power suppliers in the UK have stopped working.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3360, 1.3282
Resistance levels: 1.3525, 1.3617, 1.3685, 1.3759, 1.3812, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. The MACD indicator is negative, but there are signs of overselling and divergence. Buy trades should be considered only throughout the day and only with short targets from the support levels after the buyer’s initiative. Sell trades can be found at the resistance levels near the moving average line, as the price has deviated from the average values.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3759 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.09.30:

• UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 111.46
Prev Close: 111.97
% chg. over the last day: +0.46%

The Japanese Yen futures continue to decline as a result of the strengthening dollar index and a slowdown in the economic recovery in Japan. Japan's industrial production fell by 3.2% month-on-month in August due to the weak automotive production against the background of a global shortage of chips and failures in supply chains.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 111.49, 110.95, 110.65, 110.40, 109.95, 109.63, 109.27
Resistance levels: 112.19

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Against the background of the Japanese Yen weakness and strengthening of the dollar index, the USD/JPY quotes continue to grow. The angle of the ascending channel has decreased, while the MACD indicator continues to signal overbuying and divergence. All these are signs of the buyer's weakness. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels after a small pullback. The price has deviated strongly from the moving average, and now there is a high probability of decline. Sell positions should be considered only throughout the day from the resistance levels in conjunction with the sellers' initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 110.45, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

News feed for 2021.09.30:

• Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• Japan BoJ Gov Haruhiko Kuroda’s Speech at 10:10 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2686
Prev Close: 1.2754
% chg. over the last day: +0.53%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so USD/CAD is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index sharply jumped yesterday, while oil prices remained unchanged. As a result, the USD/CAD quotes increased due to the weakness of the Canadian currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2701, 1.2611, 1.2565, 1.2518, 1.2425
Resistance levels: 1.2774, 1.2891

From the technical point of view, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But the local trend is bullish and the price has approached the priority change level. The MACD indicator has returned to the positive zone, there are signs of buyers. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support levels, but only with short targets. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance levels after the sellers' initiative in the form of an impulse movement.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2774 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.77; (P) 150.49; (R1) 151.05; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is mildly on the downside for retesting 149.03 key support level. Firm break there will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, firm break of 152.82 will suggest that correction from 156.05 has completed, and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 149.03 support holds, such rise would still resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 149.03 support will indicate rejection by 156.59. Fall from 156.05 would be at least correcting the whole rise from 123.94. Deeper fall would be seen back 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 156.05 at 143.78 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.53; (P) 130.01; (R1) 130.33; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, firm break of 130.73 resistance will argue that correction from 134.11 has completed and turn near term outlook bullish for retesting this high. On the downside, break of 129.36 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 127.91 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8615; (P) 0.8636; (R1) 0.8660; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside as rise form 0.8448 is in progress for 0.8668 key structural resistance. Sustained break there will be a strong sign of larger bullish reversal. Next target will be 161.8% projection of 0.8448 to 0.8612 from 0.8499 at 0.8764. On the downside, break of 0.8499 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise will remain mildly in favor in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8668 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. However, firm break of 0.8668 resistance would argue that a medium term bottom was already formed. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.8861 support turned resistance to confirm completion of the corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6092; (P) 1.6137; (R1) 1.6207; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.6232 will resume the rebound from 1.5907 to retest 1.6434 high. Overall, rise from 1.5250 is still in favor to continue as long as 1.5898 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.5898 will argue that whole rise from 1.5250 has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We'd tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0819; (P) 1.0841; (R1) 1.0860; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.0811 continues. Outlook is unchanged that rebound from 1.0694 has possibly completed at 1.0936 already. Break of 1.0811 will turn bias to the downside and resume the fall for retesting 1.0694 low. On the upside, however, above 1.0884 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0936 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 1.0694 and break of 55 week EMA (now at 1.0861) mixes up the medium term outlook. On the upside, break of 1.1149 will resume the whole rise from 1.0505 (2020 low). On the downside, break of 1.0694 will revive some medium term bearishness for 1.0505 and below.