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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3814; (P) 1.3842; (R1) 1.3864; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.3890 will resume the rise from 1.3601 to 1.3982 resistance first. Decisive break there will l indicate that fall from 1.4248 has completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for retesting 1.4248. However, on the downside, break of 1.3730 support will bring retest of 1.3570/3601 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3482 resistance turned support holds, we'd still treat price actions from 1.4248 as a corrective move. That is, up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is in favor to resume. Decisive break of 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high) would indeed carry long term bullish implications. However, sustained break of 1.3482 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, or even further to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9136; (P) 0.9153; (R1) 0.9169; More....

Outlook in USD/CHF is unchanged as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.9098 will target 0.9017 support first. Further break there will likely resume the decline from 0.9471 through 0.8925 low. On the upside, break of 0.9241 resistance should resume the rise from 0.8925 through 0.927.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still struggling around 55 week EMA (now at 0.9176) and outlook is mixed for now. Confirmed rejection by the 55 week EMA will retain medium term bearishness. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 would resume through 0.8756 low at a later stage. However, sustained trading above 55 week EMA will tilt favor to the case of bullish reversal. Focus would then be turned to 0.9471 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.72; (P) 109.84; (R1) 109.97; More...

Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged as sideway trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2515; (P) 1.2537; (R1) 1.2557; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first with loss of downside momentum. On the downside, below 1.2492 will resume the fall from 1.2947 to 1.2421 support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 1.2005 has completed at 1.2947 already. Near term outlook will be turned back for 1.2301 support first. On the upside, however, break of 1.2701 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2947 high.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.77; (P) 152.02; (R1) 152.23; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral on loss of upside momentum. But further rally is mildly in favor with 151.32 minor support intact. Above 152.27 will target 153.42 resistance first. Decisive break there will argue that whole corrective pattern from 156.05 has completed, and bring retest of this high. On the downside, however, break of 151.32 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 149.16 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 149.03 support holds, such rise would still resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 149.03 support will indicate rejection by 156.59. Fall from 156.05 would be at least correcting the whole rise from 123.94. Deeper fall would be seen back 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 156.05 at 143.78 first.

STOCKS

Dow has dipped slightly while Dax has risen about 150 points. Dow could see ranged trade for the next few sessions while Dax can dip from 16200/300 if it rises further from current levels. Nikkei is bullish towards 29000/30000. Shanghai is bullish too while above 3500. Nifty and Sensex can rise a bit but can then fall back from respective resistances.

Dow (35369.09, -74.73, -0.21%) has dipped a bit but while above 35250 there is scope for the index to trade within 35500-35250 region for the near term.

DAX (15932.12, +150.92, +0.96%) has risen sharply to test 16000 mentioned yesterday. If 16000 holds, a rejection can be seen that can drag the index down to 15600 again in the near term else a rise above 16000 can be bullish towards 16200/300. Watch price action in the near term.

Nikkei (29894.92, +235.03, +0.79%) has risen sharply again. The view is bullish to see a test of 29000 and 30000 eventually.

Shanghai (3645.63, +23.77, +0.66%) has risen as expected and could continue to rise towards 3700. While above 3600 the view is bullish to see a test of 3700 or even 3800.

Nifty (17377.80, +54.20, +0.31%) made a high of 17429.55 and has come down to close at 17377 yesterday. Resistance is seen at 17400/500 which if holds can be bearish for Nifty in the near term.

Sensex (58296.91, +166.96, +0.29%) also came down after making a high of 58515.85 yesterday. A further rise towards 58500-59000 can be seen in the coming sessions before declining from there.

COMMODITIES

Crude prices have dipped a bit and look bearish in the coming days while below respective resistances. Gold needs to break above 1830 to head towards 1840/60. Silver can rise to test 26 on a break above 25. Copper is bullish and has scope for testing 4.40/45 in the near term.

Brent (72.43) and WTI (69.06) have dipped a bit but could be bearish in the near term while below 74 on Brent and 70 on WTI.

Gold (1829.10) looks stable just now and needs to rise above 1830 to head towards 1840/60 in the medium term. Note that a dip from 1860 would then be possible in the medium term.

Silver (24.85) has been rising over the past few days but need to break above 25 to head higher towards 26 in the medium term. Failure to rise past 25 can drag it back towards 24-23.50 in the coming sessions.

Copper (4.3265) could be headed towards 4.40/45 in the near term. Immediate view is bullish while above 4.25.

FOREX

Dollar Index trades above support at 91.75 but need to see if it rises towards 92.40/60 which if seen could drag down Euro below 1.1850 which does not look possible immediately on the euro chart itself. There is mixed outlook just now and we would wait to see which way the price moves. Aussie is stable below 0.7480. Pound can trade below 1.39. USDCNY can rise back to 6.47/48 while USDINR is indecisive too and needs a break on either side of 72.90-73.20 region to move either ways. Bias is to see a rise to 73.50/60 initially.

Dollar Index (92.1380) is holding above immediate support at 91.75 and has scope for a rise towards 92.40/60 which is contrary to outlook in Euro as it does not seem to fall below 1.1850 just now. Either of view in dollar Index and Euro can go wrong. We would wait and watch for price confirmation to decide on further movement.

Euro (1.1880) dipped to test 1.1855 before rising back again. Trade between 1.1910 and 1.1850 is possible for the near term.

EURJPY (130.33) is trading below 130.50/75 and while that holds, a short corrective dip looks possible in the near term that can be limited to 130.

Dollar-Yen (109.80) has risen and held above support at 109.60 and while that holds, a bounce back to 110.20/40 is possible. Immediate range of 109.25-110.25 looks possible.

Aussie (0.7445) is stable and ranged while below 0.7480. We may expect a few days of ranged movement for now.

Pound (1.3850) has bounced well and whole above 1.3820, we may expect trade between 1.39-1.3820 region for the near term.

USDCNY (6.4551) has bounced back well after the Friday fall and while it sustains above 6.40, it can rise again towards 6.47/48 in the near term.

USDINR (72.06) is ranged for now above 72.90/73.00. Outlook is indecisive between a rise to 73.5/60 or a fall to 72.65/50. We would wait for confirmation. But overall bias is to see a rise towards 73.50/60 initially.

INTEREST RATES

The US Treasury yields sustain higher in the early Asian trades today and are keeping the chances high of seeing a further rise from here to test their crucial resistances. Thereafter the Treasury yields can reverse lower to keep the long-term downtrend intact. The German yields are moving up in line with our expectation and have room to rise further before reversing lower again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have bounced-back sharply from their day’s low yesterday. However, they have resistances ahead that can cap the upside and drag them lower again and keep the overall bearish view intact.

The US 2Yr (0.20%) Treasury yield remains stable while the 5Yr (0.80%), 10Yr (1.34%) and the 30Yr (1.96%) have risen further in the early Asian session today. The 30Yr is heading up towards 2% as expected. It can extend the upside to 2.1% on a break above 2%. The 10Yr sustains well above 1.3% and keeps alive the chances of testing 1.4%-1.45%. The price action thereafter will need a close watch for a reversal and the resumption of the long-term downtrend.

The German 2Yr (-0.72), 5Yr (-0.67%), 10Yr (-0.37%) and 30Yr (0.13%) yields remain higher and stable. We retain our view of seeing a test of -0.30%/-0.25% (10Yr) and 0.20% (30Yr). Thereafter the yields can reverse lower and retain the broader downtrend intact.

The Indian 10Yr GoI (6.1733%) has bounced-back sharply from the low of 6.1342%.A break above 6.18% can take the yield up to 6.22%. It will then delay the test of 6.1% and 6% that we have been expecting. The 5Yr GoI (5.5960%) has bounced from 5.5561% but has strong resistance in the 5.62%-5.64% which can cap the upside and keep the broader bearish view intact of seeing 5.5% on the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.25; (P) 130.38; (R1) 130.50; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 130.73 temporary top. Further rise expected as long as 129.14 support holds. Corrective fall from 134.11 could have completed at 127.91 already. On the upside, break of 130.73 will resume the rebound from 127.91 to 132.68 resistance next. However, break of 129.14 will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 127.91 low instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8568; (P) 0.8577; (R1) 0.8587; More...

EUR/GBP is staying in consolidation form 0.8601 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Another rise is in favor with 0.8541 minor support intact. On the upside, above 0.8601 will resume the rebound from 0.8558 to 0.8668 resistance. Firm break there will be a strong sign of near term bullish reversal at least. On the downside, however, break of 0.8541 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8448 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8668 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. However, firm break of 0.8668 resistance would argue that a medium term bottom was already formed. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.8861 support turned resistance to confirm completion of the corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0851; (P) 1.0865; (R1) 1.0879; More....

A temporary top is formed at 1.0878 in EUR/CHF as it loses upside momentum. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Fall from 1.1149 could have completed at 1.0694. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.0780 support holds. Break of 1.0878 will target 1.0985 resistance next. However, on the downside, break of 1.0780 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0694 low instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0505 (2020 low) should have completed at 1.1149 already. The three-wave corrective structure argues that the downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not over yet. Medium term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 1.0859) holds. Break of 1.0505 low would be seen at a later stage. However, sustained trading above 55 week EMA will bring retest of 1.1149 high instead.

In August, in USD term, China's total trade rose 28.8% yoy to USD 530.3B. Exports rose 25.6% yoy to USD 294.3B. Imports rose 33.1% yoy to USD 236.0B. Trade surplus came in at USD 58.3B, above expectation of USD 52.3B.

Year-to-August, total trade rose 34.2% yoy to USD 3827.8B. Exports rose 33.7% yoy to USD 2095.1B. Imports rose 34.8% yoy to USD 1732.7B. Trade surplus came in at USD 362.5B.