Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.69; (P) 110.19; (R1) 110.45; More...

USD/JPY recovers mildly but stays in established range. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Also, risk stays mildly on the downside with 111.65 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 109.52, and sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 109.85) will suggest that it's at least correcting the rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest long term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall back towards 102.58 support.

Dollar regained some ground in European session, as assisted by mild pull back in stocks. The greenbacks stay firmer into US session as jobless claims data showed continuing improvement. Sterling is also stronger today after BoE policymaker Michael Saunders' hawkish comments. On the other hand, commodity currencies are trading lower, as led by pull back in New Zealand Dollar. But overall, most pairs are just range bound, while a firm direction is awaited.

Technically, developments remain rather indecisive. We'll keep an eye on commodity currencies today. USD/CAD might be trying to retest 1.2589 resistance as Dollar rebounds elsewhere. Break will resume whole rebound from 1.2005. Also, AUD/USD looks set to retest 0.7408 low. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 0.8006.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.69%. DAX is down -0.88%. CAC is down -0.74%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.0068 at -0.326. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.15%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.75%. China Shanghai SSE rose 1.02%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.42%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0061 to 0.014.

US initial jobless claims dropped to 360k, matched expectations

US initial jobless claims dropped -26k to 360k in the week ending July 10, matched expectations. That's the lowest level since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -14.5k to 382.5k, lowest since March 14, 2020.

Continuing claims dropped -126k to 2341k in the week ending July 3, lowest since March 21, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -72k to 3376k, lowest since March 21, 2020 too.

Also released, Empire State manufacturing index jumped to 43 in July, up from 17.4, above expectation of 19.2. But Philly Fed manufacturing survey dropped to 21.9, down from 30.7, missed expectation of 28.3.

BoE Saunders: Clear evidence that guidance conditions have been met

BoE MPC member Michael Saunders reiterated in a speech, "The Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably."

He added that these guidance conditions "have now been met". There is "clear evidence" that GDP has "regained most of the lost ground in recent months". Spare capacity in the labor market is "declining". And the economy "continues to grow rapidly". GDP is likely to regain pre-pandemic peak in the "next few months".

Also, there is "clear evidence" that core inflation is "no longer below a target-consistent pace", and it's "likely to rise further in coming months". This back drop meets the test of "significant progress in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably."

Even though the phrase "at least until" indicates these conditions are necessary but not sufficient for tightening. He said, "the guidance no longer rules out tightening." Also, "the question of whether to curtail our current asset purchase program early will be under consideration at our forthcoming meetings".

BoE Bailey won't be rushed into rate hike despite higher inflation

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey admitted in an interview that yesterday's inflation numbers were "higher than we thought it would be". But the central bank won't be rushed in to raising interest rates.

"What we will have to do, again, is go through all the evidence and assess to what extent we think the sorts of things that underlie that are likely to be transitory," he added. "And to what extent is it going to cause second round effects – so it starts to get embedded in expectations and it gets into wage negotiations and it's difficult to get out (of an inflationary cycle)."

In reaction to people who said that BoE is being "casual" about the surge in inflation, he emphasized, "we're not at all actually." "The committee has been very clear – if we think the case is made, then of course, we will respond and use the policy tools. We must do that."

UK employment back above pre-pandemic levels in some regions

UK employment rose another 356k in June to 28.9m, but remains -206k below pre-pandemic levels. Nevertheless, employment in some regions, including North East, North West, East Midlands and Norther Ireland, were already back above pre-pandemic levels. Claimant count dropped -114.7k in June.

Employment rate was at 74.8%, -1.8% below pre-pandemic levels. unemployment rate edged up to 4.8% in May, above expectation of 4.7%. That's also still 0.9% higher than before the pandemic.

Average earnings including bonus rose 7.3% 3moy in May, above expectation of 7.2% 3moy. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 6.6% 3moy, matched expectations.

ECB Visco: No tapering before the time comes

ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco told Bloomberg that, "we have to avoid tapering before the time comes that we're really confident we're back where we should." He emphasized, "we really have to show to be determined".

"Financial conditions are to remain favorable even if we have signs of some price increases that are above the target that the central banks have set," he said.

"I don't expect monetary policy to be tightened for a long period," Visco added, as there is still "substantial slack" in the economy. Also, there are risks of another wave of coronavirus infections. Nevertheless, there is no discussion on extending the PEPP beyond end date in March.

Australia unemployment rate dropped to 4.9%, lowest since 2010

Australia employment grew 29.1k in June, or 0.2% mom, above expectation of 20.3k. Full time jobs grew 51.6k while part-time jobs dropped -22.5k. Over the year, employment grew 777.9k, or 6.3% yoy. Unemployment rate dropped -0.2% to 4.9%, better than expectation of 5.0%. Participation rate was unchanged at 66.2%.

Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said June saw the eighth consecutive monthly fall in the unemployment rate. "The unemployment rate fell to 4.9 per cent in June. This was 0.4 percentage points below March 2020 (5.3 per cent) and the lowest it has been since December 2010. The declining unemployment rate continues to coincide with employers reporting high levels of job vacancies and difficulties in finding suitable people for them," Jarvis said.

China recovery slowed in June, but momentum still strong

China GDP grew 1.3% qoq in Q2, matched expectations. Industrial production growth slowed to 8.3% yoy in June, but beat expectation of 7.9% yoy. Retail sales growth slowed to 12.1% yoy, above expectation of 11.0% yoy. Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 12.6% ytd yoy, above expectation of 12.5% yoy. While growth momentum appears to be slowing, recovery is still very strong.

Hong Kong HSI rises in response to the solid data from China, and it's trading up more than 1% at the time of writing. Notable support was seen from 26782.61 resistance turned support after last week's spike low. Focus is back on 55 day EMA (now at 28484.00). Sustained break there will argue that correction from 31183.35 has completed and would bring retest of this high.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.69; (P) 110.19; (R1) 110.45; More...

USD/JPY recovers mildly but stays in established range. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Also, risk stays mildly on the downside with 111.65 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 109.52, and sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 109.85) will suggest that it's at least correcting the rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest long term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall back towards 102.58 support.

Economic Indicators Update

US initial jobless claims dropped -26k to 360k in the week ending July 10, matched expectations. That's the lowest level since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -14.5k to 382.5k, lowest since March 14, 2020.

Continuing claims dropped -126k to 2341k in the week ending July 3, lowest since March 21, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -72k to 3376k, lowest since March 21, 2020 too.

Full release here.

Oil – Oil slides as OPEC could increase supply

Oil prices are trading lower on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session. Rising fuel stocks coupled with concerns of a supply increase flooding the market and worries over demand are hammering oil prices lower.

Both benchmarks declined on Wednesday following reports that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had reached a compromise, which is expected to pave the way for an agreement on production increases across the second half of the year.

The prospect of increasing oil supply at a time when Covid cases are on the rise again is unnerving the market.

Data revealed that crude stockpiles fell for an eighth straight week last week. However, gasoline and diesel inventories rose. The market has looked through the large drawdown in crude inventories and is focusing on the first rise in fuel stocks since early June. The fact that fuel demand has eased as Covid cases rise is an unsettling correlation.

Gold shines

Gold is on the rise for the third straight session. The precious metal is building on 1% gains from Wednesday as the fundamental picture improves. Inflation is surging. Both consumer and producer price inflation continue to hit multi-year highs, yet the Fed remains firm in its position that the spike in inflation is temporary and no tightening in monetary policy is required yet. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, so rising inflation often boosts demand for the yellow metal, while the Fed sitting on their hands is a win-win for gold.

Federal Chair Powell is due to speak again before Congress today. However, he is not expected to materially deviate from yesterday’s dovish message that the US economic recovery still has a way to go before the Fed tightens monetary policy. The fundamentals picture is now unlikely to change substantially until the next key inflation print due on 30 July. This means that gold could well run higher until then.

Technically the picture for gold has brightened as the precious metal pushed back over its 200-day moving average.

European stocks are heading lower for a second session, dragged down by oil majors and travel stocks as oil prices declined and Covid cases rose.

Broadly speaking, sentiment is downbeat. The rising number of cases is reminding the markets that Covid remains a risk, despite successful vaccination programmes in some countries. As such, Covid fears are driving a rotation out of cyclicals – stocks that are more closely linked to the health of the economy, such as banks and carmakers – and travel stocks as more flying restrictions are imposed.

The travel sector had its hopes pinned on a reasonable summer period after months of paralysis, but it doesn’t look likely this will materialise. Spain’s economy was also in need of a tourist boost across the key summer months. However, with the UK government moving the Balearics back to the amber list, this is also looking unlikely. Spain’s Ibex is underperforming in Europe, down around 1%

Expectations of more supplies from oil producers following a truce between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has hit oil prices, dragging markets lower.

Looking at the bigger picture, stock indices have had a solid rally across the year. Several European indices are trading at all-time highs as we move towards earnings season. No key levels have been breached, suggesting this is nothing more than a technical sell-off before stocks continue to grind higher.

Looking ahead to the US open, US futures are trading mixed. Much like Europe, a rotation out of cyclicals is in play with high-growth tech mopping up demand. Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments last night have pulled interest rate hike expectations back, favourable for high-growth tech stocks, which are particularly sensitive to interest rate expectations.

FX – Pound edges higher after jobs report

The pound is edging higher versus the US dollar after encouraging UK jobs data. In June, UK jobs and pay recorded the greatest increase since the start of the pandemic as businesses reopened after lockdown. Compared to May, payrolls soared by 365,000 in June, with the most significant gains seen in the service sector.

Unemployment unexpectedly ticked higher to 4.8%, rather than holding steady at 4.7%. However, this number is still being held artificially low as the government’s furlough scheme props up the labour market. The scheme is due to end in September, and with 2.1 million people still on furlough in May, the unemployment figure could tick a good percentage point higher.

The US dollar continues to fall lower following Fed Powell’s dovish comments. Attention will turn to the US jobless claims. Any signs that the recovery in the labour market is stalling could send the US dollar lower.

WTI oil remains in red on Thursday and extends south, following Wednesday’s 3% drop, as markets anticipate increased supplies after a compromise deal between leading OPEC producers.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reached a compromise that should result in a deal to supply more oil to the market and cool soaring prices.

Current easing is still seen as positioning for the fresh rise, as demand growth beats supply growth that keeps the oil market in deficit and boosts expectations that supplies would remain tight in coming months despite the possibility that the OPEC+ group would finalize an agreement to raise production.

US crude inventories fell for an eighth straight week, but fuel and diesel stockpiles rose to provide little support to the oil prices.

Traders opted to take profits after oil price hit the highest level since November 2014 and look for fresh direction signals.

Fresh bears eye pivotal supports at $71.06/$70.75 (Fibo 38.2% of $61.54/$76.95 upleg/July 8 low) break of which would complete a failure swing pattern on daily chart and generate stronger bearish signal.

Extended dips should stay above psychological $70 support to keep larger bulls in play for a fresh push higher.

Res: 72.55, 72.93, 73.55, 73.89.
Sup: 71.06, 70.75, 70.00, 69.75.

The Australian dollar has edged lower in Thursday trade. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7460, down 0.26% on the day.

Australia employment outperforms

The June employment report was stronger than expected. The economy created 29.1 thousand jobs, ahead of the consensus of 20 thousand. The job gains helped send the unemployment rate to 4.9%, down from 5.1% beforehand. Of particular note was a decline in the monthly hours worked, which is likely due to the lockdowns in place due to Covid.

Covid is on the mind of the markets, as the Aussie is in negative territory despite the strong employment data. The state of Victoria is under a 5-day lockdown, just one month after the previous lockdown. This has soured sentiment towards the Australian dollar.

Health restrictions have also had a significant effect on consumer confidence. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment index rebounded in July, after posting two straight declines. The 1.5% gain was modest, but was still impressive, given that the survey was taken when health restrictions were in effect in the states of New South Wales and Victoria.

Powell stays dovish

Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not shift gears in testimony before the House on Wednesday. Powell acknowledged that inflation has “increased notably”, but insisted that the jump is due mostly to temporary factors, such as shortages of used cars and semiconductors, and that inflation would ease when conditions returned to normal. Powell stressed that the economy would have to substantially improve before the Fed would change policy.

The markets have been looking for indications as to when the Fed will taper its minimum USD 120 billion/mth in bond purchases, but Powell kept his cards close to his chest on that point, saying only that Fed officials are discussing scaling back the pace of bond purchases.

Powell’s message to the markets was that notwithstanding the surge in inflation, the Fed is committed to its dovish monetary policy.

AUD/USD Technical

• There is support at 0.7400. Below, we find support at 0.7311
• On the upside, there is resistance at 0.7589 and 0.7689

BoE MPC member Michael Saunders reiterated in a speech, "The Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably."

He added that these guidance conditions "have now been met". There is "clear evidence" that GDP has "regained most of the lost ground in recent months". Spare capacity in the labor market is "declining". And the economy "continues to grow rapidly". GDP is likely to regain pre-pandemic peak in the "next few months".

Also, there is "clear evidence" that core inflation is "no longer below a target-consistent pace", and it's "likely to rise further in coming months". This back drop meets the test of "significant progress in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably."

Even though the phrase "at least until" indicates these conditions are necessary but not sufficient for tightening. He said, "the guidance no longer rules out tightening." Also, "the question of whether to curtail our current asset purchase program early will be under consideration at our forthcoming meetings".

Full speech here.

Cable remains within choppy and narrowing range on Thursday, despite strong UK inflation and labor data, as well as dovish tone from Fed’s chief Powell.

Improving conditions in the UK labor sector suggest that economic recovery is gaining pace, with expectations of lifting almost all Covid-19 restrictions on July 19, expected to further boost the sentiment.

The inflation in the UK rose in June to the highest since August 2018, adding to signals that the BoE may take an action earlier than expected, although the central bank would asses if inflationary pressure is transitory, before calling on raising interest rates and start tightening money supply to the economy.

Daily chart shows near-term action holding within a triangle and investors await for direction signal on break of either side of the pattern.

Positive fundamentals support bullish scenario on break of the upper triangle boundary, while daily technical studies are improving, but still show mixed setup.

Initial positive signal could be expected on sustained break above 20DMA (1.3856), while lift above triangle’s upper boundary (1.3887) would expose pivotal barriers at 1.3929/37 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.4249/1.3731 / 100DMA) violation of which would add to reversal signal and expose key 1.40 resistance zone.

Near-term action is expected to remain biased higher while above 10DMA (1.3838), while break here and below triangle support (1.3810) would be bearish.

Res: 1.3887, 1.3910, 1.3929, 1.3937.
Sup: 1.3838, 1.3828, 1.3786, 1.3755.

Notes/Observations

• China data mixed but managed to displace concerns of any deep economic slowdown.

Asia

• China Q2 GDP Q/Q: 1.3% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 7.9% v 8.0%e.
• China Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: 12.1% v 10.8%e.
• China Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: 8.3% v 7.8%e.
• China Jun Surveyed Jobless Rate: 5.0% v 5.0%e.
• China National Bureau of Stats (NBS) Spokesperson Liu Aihua saw income to keep rising and would support consumption; expected China CPI to be modest this year.
• Bank of Korea (BoK) left the 7-Day Repo Rate unchanged at 0.50% (as expected).
• BOK Gov Lee post rate decision press conference: noted that the need for policy normalization was increasing on financial imbalances but had no timetable for rate hike. Would not delay policy normalization if recovery was steady; Reiterated that 1 or 2 rate hikes would not mean tightening but such move cannot solve financial imbalances.
• Australia Jun Employment Change: +29.1K v +20.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 4.9% v 5.1%e.

Europe

• BOE Gov Bailey: Reiterates stance that will not be rushed into raising rates despite news of rising inflation.
• BOE's Ramsden stated that he could envisage the conditions for considering tightening being met somewhat sooner expected. Inflation could touch 4% in the UK and then fall back.

Mid-East

• Iran said to be not prepared to resume nuclear talks until new President Raisi took over, the nuclear talks probably would not resume before mid-Aug.

Americas

• Fed chief Powell noted that inflation to remain elevated before moderating.
• Beige Book noted the economy strengthened from late May to early July. Outlook for demand improved further but some did express uncertainty over easing supply constraints.
• Top Democrats said to have agreed for an import tax on products from countries that did not have 'aggressive' climate change policies as part of $3.5T budget.
• Chile Central Bank (BCCh) raised the Overnight Rate Target by 25bps to 0.75% (as expected) for its 1st hike since Jan 2019.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 -0.35% at 458.96, FTSE +0.07% at 7,096.45, DAX -0.70% at 15,678.10, CAC-40 -0.40% at 6,532.10, IBEX-35 -1.05% at 8,567.00, FTSE MIB -0.82% at 24,987.50, SMI -0.08% at 12,034.03, S&P 500 Futures -0.06%].
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open lower across the board and stayed under pressure as the session wore on; risk sentiment impacted following renewed concern over covid spread and reports of employee shortages in UK due to delta variant; better performing sectors include industrials and consumer discretionary; while energy and financials among the sectors leading to the downside; Turkey closed for holiday; Standard Bank to take over Liberty Holdings; Avast confirms in talks to merge with Norton; earnings expected in the upcoming US session includes UnitedHealth, Morgan Stanley, Alcoa and Bank of New York Mellon.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Just Eat Takeaway [JET.UK] -2% (orders), TomTom [TOM2.NL] -15% (earnings), Asos [ASC.UK] -14% (trading update).
• Energy: Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy [SGRE.ES] -13% (prelim earnings).
• Financials: Experian [EXPN.UK] +6% (trading update).
• Industrials: Daimler [DAI.DE] -1% (prelim results).
• Technology: Darktrace [DARK.UK] +13% (raises outlook), Avast [AVST.UK] +14% (merger talks).

Speakers

• ECB's Villerory (France) stated that the biggest threat to recovery was hiring difficulties.
• ECB's Visco (Italy) stated that the economic recovery was picking up pace but needed to avoid tapering before the proper time. Region still had substantial economic slack. Must convince the markets that ECB was determined on inflation. Had not yet discussed the need to extend the pandemic Bond Buying Program (PEPP) but to begin them in July and continue into Sept.
• France Fin Min Le Maire lowered its forecast of 2021 budget deficit to GDP ratio to below 9.0% (**Reminder: On July 13th France Fin Min Le Maire reiterated stance that economic rebound is stronger than expected. Raised its 2021 GDP growth from 5.0% to 6.0%).
• EU's Dombrovskis (trade chief): WTO Ministerial draft deal for fisheries contains many elements for landing zones.
• Ireland Fin Min Donohoe reiterated his commitment to retaining Ireland's corporate 12.5% tax rate.
• President Biden to discuss Nord Stream 2 concerns, pandemic, China and Russia topics when meeting German Chancellor Merkel.
• Philippines Central Bank (BSP) Gov Diokno reiterated stance that monetary policy to stay supportive of economy; did not need to re-calibrate due to external developments.

Currencies/ Fixed income

• USD continued to drift from recent multi-month highs against various pairs in the aftermath after dovish Fed testimony from Fed Chair Powell where he noted the economy was still a ways off from levels the central bank wanted to see before tapering its monetary support. US 10-year yield lower to test under 1.32% in electronic trade in the session.
• Greenback also saw some unwinding of safe-haven flows as China economic data seemed to have displace concerns of any deep economic slowdown.
• EUR/USD at 1.1850 area. Dealers beginning to shift focus to next week’s ECB meeting and how the Council will react to its new strategy and the debate surrounding inflation.
• USD/JPY below the 110 level ahead of Friday's BOJ rate decision and quarterly Staff Projections.

Economic data

• (FI) Finland May GDP Indicator Y/Y: 9.0% v 7.1% prior.
• (UK) Jun Jobless Claims Change: -114.7K v -151.4K prior; Claimant Count Rate: 5.8% v 6.0% prior.
• (UK) May Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 7.3% v 7.1%e; Weekly Earnings (ex-bonus) 3M/Y: 6.6% v 6.6%e.
• (UK) May ILO Unemployment Rate: 4.8% v 4.7%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +25K v +91Ke.
• (DK) Denmark Jun PPI M/M: 3.6% v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: 10.1% v 9.9% prior.
• (IT) Italy Jun Final CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 0.3% v 1.3% prelim; CPI FOI Index (ex-tobacco): 103.8 v 103.6 prior.
• (IT) Italy Jun Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prelim; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e.
• (PL) Poland Jun Final CPI M/M: % v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: % v 4.4% prelim.
• (IT) Italy May General Government Debt: €2.687T v €2.681T prior (record high).

Fixed income issuance

• (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.366B vs. €5.0-6.0B indicated range in 2024, 2028, 2031 and 2037 Bonds.
• Sold €1.292B in 0.25% July 2024 bonds; Avg yield: -0.473% v -0.501% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.80x v 1.85x prior.
• Sold €1.617B in 0.00% Jan 2028 SPGB bonds; Avg yield: -0.082% v 0.011% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.63x v 1.16x prior.
• Sold €1.424B in 0.50% Oct 2031 SPGB bonds; Avg Yield: 0.354% v 0.598% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.79x v 1.77x prior.
• Sold €1.033B in 4.20% Jan 2037 SPGB; Avg Yield: 0.673% v 2.314% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.52x v 1.58x prior.
• (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) sold €750M vs. €750M indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.620% v -0.622% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.10x v 2.45x prior.
• (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total €10.477B vs. €9.5-10.5B indicated range in 2024, 2026, 2027 and 2028 bonds.
• Sold €4.457B in 0.00% Feb 2024 Oat; Avg Yield: -0.63% v -0.53% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.31x v 2.49x prior (May 20th 2021).
• Sold €2.570B in 0.00% Feb 2026 Oat; Avg Yield: -0.52% v -0.48% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.45x v 2.10x prior (Mar 18th 2021).
• Sold €1.820B in 2.75% Oct 2027 Oat; Avg yield: -0.42% v -0.57% prior, Bid-to-cover: 2.39x v 2.20x prior (Nov 19th 2020).
• Sold €1.65B in 0.75% Nov 2028 Oat; Avg Yield: -0.30% v -0.21% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.73x v 2.47x prior.

Looking ahead

• OPEC Monthly Oil Report.
• (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays).
• 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell bonds.
• 05:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €1.25-1.75B in 2031 and 2036 inflation-linked bonds (Oatei).
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.
• 06:00 (IE) Ireland May Trade Balance: No est v €4.7B prior.
• 06:00 (UK) BOE’s Saunders.
• 07:30 (IN) India Jun Trade Balance: -$9.4Be v -$6.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: No est v 69.4% prior; Imports Y/Y: No est v 73.6% prior.
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.
• 08:30 (US) July Empire Manufacturing: 18.0e v 17.4 prior.
• 08:30 (US) July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 28.0e v 30.7 prior.
• 08:30 (US) Jun Import Price Index M/M: 1.1%e v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 11.1%e v 11.3% prior; Import Price Index (ex-petroleum) M/M: 0.6%e v 0.9% prior.
• 08:30 (US) Jun Export Price Index M/M: 1.4%e v 2.2% prior; Y/Y: 16.3%e v 17.4% prior.
• 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 350Ke v 373K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.30Me v 3.339M prior.
• 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.
• 09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e July 9th: No est v $590.7B prior.
• 09:00 (CA) Canada Jun Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v -7.4% prior.
• 09:15 (US) Jun Industrial Production M/M: 0.6%e v 0.8% prior; Capacity Utilization: 75.6%e v 75.2% prior; Manufacturing Production: 0.3%e v 0.9% prior.
• 09:30 (US) Fed Chair Powell testimony to Senate banking committee.
• 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories.
• 11:00 (CO) Colombia May Manufacturing Production Y/Y: No est v 63.7% prior.
• 11:00 (CO) Colombia May Retail Sales Y/Y: 20.0%e v 75.0% prior.
• 11:00 (PE) Peru Jun Unemployment Rate: No est v 12.0% prior.
• 11:30 (IL) Israel Jun CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.5% prior.
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills.
• 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2-year notes.
• 15:00 (CO) Colombia May Industrial Production Y/Y: 30.0%e v 39.6% prior.
• 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun National CPI M/M: 3.3%e v 3.3% prior; Y/Y: 50.5%e v 48.8% prior.
• (PE) Peru May Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: No est v 58.5% prior.
• 18:30 (NZ) New Zealand Jun Business Manufacturing PMI: No est v 58.6 prior.
• 18:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q2 CPI Q/Q: 0.7%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.7%e v 1.5% prior.
• 20:30 (SG) Singapore Jun Non-oil Domestic Exports M/M: +1.5%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 8.3%e v 8.8% prior; Electronic Exports Y/Y: No est v 11.0% prior.
• (JP) BOJ Interest rate and Policy Decision Expected to leave Interest Rate on Excess Reserves (IOER) unchanged at -0.10% and maintain Yield Curve Control (YCC) around 0.00%.
• (JP) BOJ to update its Quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices.