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Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.38; (P) 147.74; (R1) 148.04; More...

USD/JPY weakens today but stays well inside range of 146.20/148.51. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 148.51 will indicate that the pullback from 150.90 has completed, and bring retest of this high. This will also keep the whole rise from 139.87 alive. However, firm break of 145.84 support will argue that the rebound from 139.87 has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

The forex markets are trading in a clear risk-off tone today, with commodity currencies sliding and traditional havens like Yen and Swiss Franc leading the pack. Investors are wary that yesterday’s steep selloff in technology stocks could mark the start of a broader correction. NASDAQ’s retreat has stirred unease about stretched valuations in the AI sector and raised doubts over the durability of the equity rally.

The spotlight is now shifting to Fed, with a heavy slate of communication expected before Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance at Jackson Hole on Friday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller is due to speak and is widely expected to reiterate his dovish call that Fed should not delay in cutting rates to safeguard the labor market. His stance has been consistent, and there is little reason to expect a pivot.

More nuanced will be comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who has maintained a more cautious position, emphasizing the persistence of inflation pressures and signaling preference for only one rate cut this year. Any hint that he is softening could shift expectations meaningfully, but markets are not anticipating a major departure from his recent tone.

The minutes of Fed’s July meeting are also due and have drawn special interest. The meeting itself resulted in no change to the policy rate, left at 4.25–4.50%. Yet, the key drama was that Governors Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented, favoring an immediate cut to avoid further labor market deterioration. This marked the first double dissent in more than three decades and highlighted the widening policy debate inside Fed. The markets will be parsing the minutes to assess how deep the division runs and whether more members leaned dovish in private.

That said, the minutes are somewhat stale—predating the revised payroll figures that signaled more softness in jobs than previously thought. This timing issue is compounded by the fact that the minutes land just two days before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Powell’s remarks, along with a slew of Fed commentary around the symposium, will likely overshadow the July record and provide a fresher signal of policy direction.

Currently fed fund futures are pricing in an 85% chance of a September cut, with odds for an October follow-up slipping below 50%.

In the currency markets, Yen is the day’s top performer so far, trailed by Swiss Franc and Euro. On the other end, Kiwi remains weakest, extending losses after the RBNZ’s dovish cut. Aussie is also soft, with risk aversion weighing heavily. Sterling’s earlier boost from hot UK CPI data has faded. Dollar and Loonie are parked in the middle of the pack.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.61%. DAX is down -0.33%. CAC is up 0.23%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.042 at 4.703. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.017 at 2.738. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -1.51%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.17%. China Shanghai SSE rose 1.04%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.08%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.01 to 1.608.

ECB’s Lagarde: EU–US trade deal offers relief but risks still hang over sectoral tariffs

Speaking today, ECB President Christine Lagarde said growth in the Eurozone is expected to weaken in Q3 as earlier tariff-related frontloading unwinds.

A key factor is the new EU–U.S. trade deal, which implies an effective tariff rate of 12–16% on EU goods entering the U.S. Lagarde stressed it is “still close to” the June baseline scenarios, and remains below the severe scenario of tariffs exceeding 20% that staff had also considered.

Nevertheless, “uncertainty persists as sector-specific tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors remain unclear”, she added.

Lagarde confirmed ECB will incorporate the updated tariff framework into its September projections, which will help shape policy decisions in the coming months.

Eurozone CPI holds at 2%, core steady at 2.3%

Eurozone inflation dynamics showed little change in July, with headline CPI finalized at 2.0% yoy and core CPI at 2.3% yoy. Both were steady comparing to June’s readings.

Services remained the dominant driver, contributing +1.46 percentage points to annual inflation, followed by food, alcohol and tobacco at +0.63 pp. Non-energy industrial goods added a modest +0.18 pp, while energy subtracted -0.23 pp, highlighting that weak energy costs are still offsetting some domestic price persistence.

In contrast, the broader EU recorded a slight acceleration fro 2.3% yoy to 2.4% yoy. Country-level differences remain wide, with inflation near zero in Cyprus and below 1% in France, but still running above 6% in Romania.

UK CPI jumps to 3.8%, services inflation stays hot at 5%

UK inflation accelerated more than expected in July, with headline CPI rising to 3.8% yoy from 3.6% yoy, surpassing forecasts of 3.7% yoy and marking the highest level since early 2024. The biggest driver was transport costs, particularly higher airfares, which made the largest contribution to the monthly rise in annual rates.

Breakdown data showed broad-based strength. CPI goods inflation climbed to 2.7% yoy from 2.4% yoy, while CPI services surged to 5.0% yoy from 4.7% yoy. Meanwhile, core CPI edged up from 3.7% yoy to 3.8% yoy, topping expectations and matching the headline pace, highlighting persistent underlying pressures.

For BoE, the data poses a challenge. The uptick in both headline and core inflation risks slowing the recent easing cycle, as policymakers balance still-high inflation against weaker economic growth momentum. Markets may scale back expectations for near-term cuts if the stickiness persists.

GBP/AUD to clear 2.10, eyeing 2.16 as UK data lifts sterling, risk-off weighs on Aussie

GBP/AUD pushed higher again today, extending its rebound from 2.0420 as Sterling found fresh support from hotter-than-expected UK inflation. The data have raised fresh doubts over whether BoE can cut again in November, shifting the near-term balance toward hawkish caution.

The backdrop is significant: BoE’s most recent 25bps cut to 4.00% was already a hawkishly split 5–4 decision. Today’s inflation release strengthens the case of hawks such as Chief Economist Huw Pill, potentially swaying some of the less dovish members of the MPC. While the staunchest doves like Alan Taylor may remain unmoved, the prospect of additional cuts is now less certain.

On the other side of the cross, the Australian Dollar is undermined by a mild risk-off tone in global markets. A bruising session for technology stocks yesterday saw the NASDAQ fall sharply, denting sentiment and prompting a rotation out of higher-beta sectors. Caution extended into Asia today, where the Nikkei posted a steep pullback.

Technically, outlook is unchanged that GBP/AUD's correction from 2.1643 should have completed with three waves down to 2.0420. Firm break of 2.1034 resistance will solidify this bullish case and target a retest on 2.1643 high first. For now, outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 2.0775 support holds, in case of retreat.

RBNZ cuts, opens door to more

RBNZ delivered a 25bps cut to the Official Cash Rate, lowering it to 3.00% as widely expected. A more sizeable 50bps rate cut was discussed during the meeting. Policymakers maintained an easing bias, noting that “if medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as expected, there is scope to lower the OCR further.”

The new projections point to the OCR dropping to 2.7% by Q4 2025, then settling between 2.5% and 2.6% in 2026 before edging back toward 2.7–2.8% in 2027. This outlook effectively signals room for one additional cut this year and another in early 2026.

The Bank highlighted ongoing slack in the economy and easing domestic inflation, projecting headline inflation to return to the 2% midpoint of target by mid-2026. However, New Zealand’s recovery has stalled, with household and business spending constrained by global policy uncertainty, weaker employment, higher costs for essentials, and falling house prices.

Japan exports slump -2.6% yoy in July, U.S. auto shipments hit hard

Japan’s exports fell -2.6% yoy in July to JPY 9.36 trillion, the sharpest drop since February 2021, driven by weaker demand from its two largest markets, the U.S. and China. Exports to the U.S. slid -10.1% yoy, with auto shipments plunging -28.4% yoy, a steeper decline than June’s -26.7%. Shipments to China also contracted -3.5% yoy, though exports to Hong Kong surged nearly 18% yoy.

The latest weakness highlights how external headwinds continue to weigh on Japan’s trade sector. While Tokyo reached a deal with Washington on July 22 to reduce reciprocal tariffs to 15% from 25%, the benefits will not be reflected until the August trade data. For now, auto exports remain a key drag on overall performance.

Imports fell -7.5% yoy to JPY 9.48 trillion, leaving Japan with a JPY 118 billion deficit. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports slipped -0.2% mom, while imports rose 0.4% mom, pushing the deficit wider to JPY 303 billion.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.38; (P) 147.74; (R1) 148.04; More...

USD/JPY weakens today but stays well inside range of 146.20/148.51. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 148.51 will indicate that the pullback from 150.90 has completed, and bring retest of this high. This will also keep the whole rise from 139.87 alive. However, firm break of 145.84 support will argue that the rebound from 139.87 has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.

GBP/AUD pushed higher again today, extending its rebound from 2.0420 as Sterling found fresh support from hotter-than-expected UK inflation. The data have raised fresh doubts over whether BoE can cut again in November, shifting the near-term balance toward hawkish caution.

The backdrop is significant: BoE’s most recent 25bps cut to 4.00% was already a hawkishly split 5–4 decision. Today’s inflation release strengthens the case of hawks such as Chief Economist Huw Pill, potentially swaying some of the less dovish members of the MPC. While the staunchest doves like Alan Taylor may remain unmoved, the prospect of additional cuts is now less certain.

On the other side of the cross, the Australian Dollar is undermined by a mild risk-off tone in global markets. A bruising session for technology stocks yesterday saw the NASDAQ fall sharply, denting sentiment and prompting a rotation out of higher-beta sectors. Caution extended into Asia today, where the Nikkei posted a steep pullback.

Technically, outlook is unchanged that GBP/AUD's correction from 2.1643 should have completed with three waves down to 2.0420. Firm break of 2.1034 resistance will solidify this bullish case and target a retest on 2.1643 high first. For now, outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 2.0775 support holds, in case of retreat.

As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) fell by approximately 1.6% yesterday.

According to media reports, bearish sentiment has been fuelled by the approach of key events:

→ the release of the FOMC meeting minutes (today at 21:00 GMT+3);

→ Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Market participants are preparing for remarks from the Fed Chair on the trajectory of interest rates.

Notably, the S&P 500 declined less significantly, while the Dow Jones remained virtually unchanged. This suggests that:

→ tech stocks are heavily overvalued due to AI-driven hype;

→ capital shifted yesterday from risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) into so-called safe havens.

Could tech stocks continue to decline?

Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen)

Analysing the Nasdaq 100 index chart (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) on 5 August, we plotted the main upward channel (shown in blue). It remains valid, as since then the price has:

1→ reached the upper boundary, which (as often happens) acted as resistance;

2→ retreated to the median line, where volatility decreased (a sign of balance between supply and demand), but only briefly.

Yesterday’s low coincided with the lower boundary of the channel.

From a bullish perspective, buyers might rely on:

→ a resumption of the uptrend from the lower boundary (as was the case in early August);

→ support at the 50% retracement level after the A→B impulse (located around the current price area);

→ a rebound from the oversold zone indicated by the RSI;

→ support at the 7 August low of 23,250 (a false bearish breakout remains possible).

On the other hand: the price has confidently broken through the channel median and then accelerated downwards (a sign of imbalance in favour of sellers). This imbalance zone (which, under the Smart Money Concept methodology, is considered a bearish Fair Value Gap) could act as resistance going forward.

Given the pace of yesterday’s decline, we could assume that sellers currently hold the initiative. Should we see weak rebounds (in the style of a dead cat bounce) from the channel’s lower boundary, the likelihood of a bearish breakout could increase.

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Eurozone inflation dynamics showed little change in July, with headline CPI finalized at 2.0% yoy and core CPI at 2.3% yoy. Both were steady comparing to June's readings.

Services remained the dominant driver, contributing +1.46 percentage points to annual inflation, followed by food, alcohol and tobacco at +0.63 pp. Non-energy industrial goods added a modest +0.18 pp, while energy subtracted -0.23 pp, highlighting that weak energy costs are still offsetting some domestic price persistence.

In contrast, the broader EU recorded a slight acceleration fro 2.3% yoy to 2.4% yoy. Country-level differences remain wide, with inflation near zero in Cyprus and below 1% in France, but still running above 6% in Romania.

Full Eurozone CPI final release here.

Speaking today, ECB President Christine Lagarde said growth in the Eurozone is expected to weaken in Q3 as earlier tariff-related frontloading unwinds.

A key factor is the new EU–U.S. trade deal, which implies an effective tariff rate of 12–16% on EU goods entering the U.S. Lagarde stressed it is "still close to" the June baseline scenarios, and remains below the severe scenario of tariffs exceeding 20% that staff had also considered.

Nevertheless, "uncertainty persists as sector-specific tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors remain unclear", she added.

Lagarde confirmed ECB will incorporate the updated tariff framework into its September projections, which will help shape policy decisions in the coming months.

Full speech of ECB's Lagarde here.

On Wednesday, the USDJPY pair consolidated near 147.50, extending the previous session's decline, despite weak Japanese foreign trade figures.

Exports dropped by 2.6% y/y in July, marking the steepest decline in over four years, largely due to pressure from US tariffs. Imports fell by 7.5%, the fourth drop since the beginning of the year. However, the data still came in better than expectations, which pointed to a 10.4% decline.

In contrast, equipment orders — a proxy for capital investment — rose unexpectedly in June, following two months of contraction, signalling some resilience in corporate spending.

Meanwhile, investors remain uncertain about the Bank of Japan’s future steps. Governor Kazuo Ueda maintains a cautious stance, highlighting that core inflation is still below the 2.0% target.

The yen has also seen temporary demand as a safe-haven asset, supporting its appreciation.

Technical analysis of USDJPY

On the H4 USDJPY chart, the market continues to develop a downward wave towards 146.14. This level is expected to be reached today. A temporary rebound to 147.30 cannot be ruled out. Following that, we anticipate a further decline to 145.45, with the potential for the trend to extend to 144.30. The target remains local. This bearish scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing strictly downwards, indicating ongoing downside momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market is shaping a downward wave structure towards 146.12. Today, we are considering a short-term move to 147.12, followed by a potential growth link to 147.60. After that, the market is likely to decline again to 146.60, and further to 146.12, continuing the bearish trend. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view, with its signal line below the 50 level, directed sharply towards 20, reflecting a strong bearish bias.

Summary

Despite weak trade statistics, USDJPY is falling amid resilient investment data and growing demand for the yen as a safe-haven. Technical indicators point towards a continued downward trend, with key targets at 146.14, 145.45, and 144.30, while any rebounds are likely to remain temporary.

Hello fellow traders.

As our members know, we’ve been long in Bitcoin. The crypto has made a solid rally toward new all-time highs, gaining more than 20% since our entry on the June 22nd. In this technical article, we are going to present short term Elliott Wave forecast of BTCUSD. We were calling for a short-term weakness within the pullback against the 111,984 low.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Weekend Chart 08.17.2025

Current view suggests Bitcoin is doing a correction against the 111,984 low. We can count clear 5 waves in the drop from the peak which indicates we have got most likely on the first leg of pull back thaat is unfolding as a Zig Zag 5-3-5 structure. So,we expect another leg down to retest the 111,984 low.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Weekend Chart 08.17.2025

Bitcoin made the drop as expected. So far, we can count only three waves from the peak, which is an incomplete structure for the ((c)) leg. We expect a short-term bounce followed by a final push down to complete five waves in the ((c)) leg. If the price breaks below the 111,984 low, it will invalidate the Elliott Wave count.

As our members know we have had many profitable trading setups recently. In this technical article, we are going to talk about another Elliott Wave trading setup we got in EURUSD. The pair has completed its correction exactly at the Equal Legs zone, also known as the Blue Box Area. In this article, we’ll break down the Elliott Wave forecast, explain the trading setup in detail, and provide the upside target.

EURUSD Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 07.28.2025

EURUSD is forming a 3 waves pullback against the 1.10619 low. While price remains below the red ((x)) connector, we believe the correction is still in progress and expect another leg lower toward the 1.1512-1.1340 area , where we are looking to re-enter as buyers. We recommend that members avoid selling EURUSD. We expect at least a three-wave bounce from the Blue Box area.Once the price reaches the 50% Fibonacci retracement against the black ((x)) connector, we will make the position risk-free by moving the stop loss to breakeven and booking partial profits.

EURUSD Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 08.19.2025

The pair has made drop toward our buying zone- Blue Box area. EURUSD found buyers as expected, making decent reaction. The rally from from the buying zone has exceeded 50 fibs against the (B) blue connector. Consequently, any long positions from the Blue Box should now be risk-free. We’ve set our stop loss at breakeven and have already secured partial profits. While price holds above 1.1388, we consider the wave ((4)) correction complete and see potential for wave ((5)) to be in progress toward new highs.

Short term : rally from the 1.1388 low shows 5 waves structure. Currently the pair is doing a 3 waves pull back which can complete around 1.1620-1.1559 area.

EUR/USD declined from 1.1720 and traded below 1.1650. USD/JPY is rising and might gain pace above 148.20.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline after a decent move above 1.1680.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1650 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 147.00 and 147.40 levels.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 147.70 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair rallied above the 1.1680 resistance zone before the bears appeared, as discussed in the previous analysis. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below 1.1660 against the US Dollar.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1650, and a low was formed near 1.1622. After that, the pair started a consolidation phase.

There was a minor recovery wave above 1.1630. EUR/USD is now trading below 1.1650 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the pair is now facing hurdles near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1692 swing high to the 1.1622 low at 1.1640.

The next key resistance is 1.1655 and the 50% Fib retracement. The main barrier for the bulls could be 1.1665. A clear move above 1.1665 could send the pair toward 1.1690. An upside break above 1.1690 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward the 1.1720 zone.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.1620. The next important region for buyers sits at 1.1600. If there is a downside break below 1.1600, the pair could drop toward 1.1550. Any more losses might send the pair toward 1.1500.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh upward move from 146.20. The US Dollar gained bullish momentum above 146.50 against the Japanese Yen.

It even cleared the 50-hour simple moving average and 147.50. The pair climbed above 148.00 and traded as high as 148.10. It’s now consolidating gains above the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 146.73 swing low to the 148.10 high.

The current price action above 147.40 is positive. Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near a bearish trend line at 147.70 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The first key hurdle is near 147.95. If there is a close above 147.95 and the RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 148.10. The next major stop for the bulls could be 148.50, above which the pair could test 150.00 in the coming days.

On the downside, the first major support is 147.40. The next area of interest for buyers could be near the 76.4% Fib retracement at 147.05.

If there is a close below 147.05, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward 146.20. Any more losses might open the doors for a drop to 145.00.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.