Another U-Turn in Sentiments on Fed, Dollar Back Under Pressure
Sentiments took another U-turn as Fed did the trick again, with expansion of its asset purchases. Asia markets surge broadly, following the strong rebound in US overnight. Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc are back under pressure. But New Zealand Dollar is the worst performing one for today so far,...
BOE to Expand QE and Discuss Negative Rates
Although there are signs that the coronavirus outbreak in the UK is stabilizing, its economic impact has just been emerged. Record contraction in GDP, sharp slowdown in inflation and weak employment indicators suggest that the BOE would have to maintain a very expansionary monetary policy stance. Together with lukewarm...
Risk Aversion Remains the Main Theme While Gold Reverses
Risk aversion remain a major theme today on concern over coronavirus second wave. DOW futures point to sharply lower open and the index could lose 25k handle. NASDAQ might also have another take on 9500 too. In the currency markets. Swiss Franc, Yen and Dollar are taking turns to...
Asian Markets Lower on Beijing Coronavirus Cases and China Data
Asian markets open the week mildly lower on concerns of another coronavirus outbreak in Beijing. Meanwhile, disappointing economic data from China also weigh on sentiments. Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar are trading generally higher. Aussie is leading commodity currencies lower. But major pairs and crosses are staying inside Friday's...
Sentiments Took a U-Turn on Fear of Coronavirus Second Wave
The second wave of coronavirus pandemic had finally become a main theme in the markets last week. Or, investors could have just waited for Fed to confirm its done with more easing for moment, and started profit taking. Either way, massive selloff was seen in the stock markets towards...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Improved Risk Appetite Weighed on US dollar and Lifted Euro. The Trend may Reverse
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 9, NET LENGTH in USD Index fell -3 569 contracts to 4 689. Speculative long positions increased +2 999 contracts and short positions rose +6 568 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Renewed Coronavirus Concerns may Lead to New Rally in Gold
Gold price continued to consolidate at top range. As we mentioned in the previous report, the yellow metal will resume recent rally after pullback. Renewed concerns about third wave of coronavirus outbreak in the US and China are expected to drive demand for gold. This could lead to increase...
HKD Supported by Low US Yield and Seasonal Factors, Despite Huge Political Uncertainty Ahead
Recent strength of HKD has triggered the territory’s de facto central bank, HKMA, to defend the currency system. The key reasons for strong HKD are broad-based USD weakness, HIBOR-LIBOR spread, semiannual settlement and IPO activities in Hong Kong. Policy uncertainty has taken a backseat as the US government is...
Yen and Franc Digest Gains and Risk Markets Recovery Mildly
Risk markets recover mildly today after yesterday's sharp decline. DOW future is currently up over 500 pts ahead of open, but well short of yesterday's -1800pts decline. Yen and Swiss Franc turn softer today, followed by Dollar, while commodity currencies recover. For the week, though, Yen and Swiss Franc...
Risk Aversion Eased Mildly in Asia after Massive Selloff in US
Risk aversion carries on in Asian session today, after the massive selloff in the US overnight. But selling has some what eased ahead of the weekend. In the currency markets, Yen and Swiss Franc remain the strongest ones for the week, even though both are paring some gains. Dollar...
Markets Back in Risk Aversion on Fear of Coronavirus Second Wave
The financial markets are suddenly in deep risk aversion today, particular on fear of a second wave of coronavirus pandemic. A John Hopkins Center senior scholar has already warned that "there is a new wave coming in" parts of the US. In the currency markets, Australian Dollar is trading...
Yen, Swiss and Dollar Rise as Risk Aversion Comes Back after FOMC
Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar strengthen generally today as risk appetite is having a setback after dovish FOMC announcement overnight. While NASDAQ continued to defy gravity and extended the record run, DOW and S&P 500 closed mildly lower. Asian markets are also trading in red as pull back in...
FOMC Signals to Increase Asset Purchases in Coming Months
As expected, FOMC left its monetary policy measures unchanged and downgraded the macroeconomic outlook. The members also project that the policy rate will stay unchanged through 2020. The accompanying statement showed few changes. Yet, the pledge to increase purchases by at least their current rate signals that the central...
Pick-up in US Oil Inventory and OPEC+’s Compliance Problem have Capped Crude’s Upside
The excitement brought by OPEC+'s agreement to extend the output cut deal for a month to July short-lived. Crude oil price only climbed modestly higher after the news. Gains were quickly evaporated. Concerning OPEC+, the market is mainly concerned about compliance by some participants. A survey by S&P estimated...
More Signs of Dollar Weakness as Fed Awaited
Stock markets are generally mixed today as NASDAQ seems unstoppable. But other indices, in Asia, Europe and even US look sluggish. OECD noted the equal probability of having a second wave of coronavirus spread or not. But that's largely ignored by investors. In the currency markets, Dollar is back...
China’s Inflation Declined to Lowest in Over a Year; Trade Data Showed Weakness in Domestic and Global Demand
Headline CPI slowed further to +2.4% y/y in May, from +3.3% a month ago. The market had anticipated a milder drop to +2.7%. The reading is the lowest since April 2019 and the first time below +3% since August 2019. Food inflation continued to ease significantly. Specifically, growth in...
Dollar Softens ahead of FOMC, Fed to Release New Economic Projections
Dollar is back under pressure against and focus turns to FOMC meeting. NASDAQ managed to break 10k level for the first time, and closed up 0.29% at 9953. But DOW and S&P 500 ended lower. Mixed trading in stocks carry on in Asian session. Yen continues to ride on...
Risk Markets Setting Stage for Pullback, But To Be Confirmed
Yen and Swiss Franc rise broadly today as global stock markets look set for a pull back after recent strong run. Major European indices are trading generally in red while US futures point to a lower open. On the other hand, commodity currencies are trading broadly lower, as led...
Yen Firm after Strong Rebound, Ignore Stocks Rally
Yen surges broadly this week and remains generally firm in Asian session. Pull back in treasury yield is seen as a factor driving the Yen higher. Yet, the lack of selling in Yen despite strong risk appetite, with NASDAQ extending record run, is something to note. it might be...
FOMC Preview – Standing Ready to Add Stimulus Despite Signs of Recovery
While we do not expect any change in monetary policy at the June FOMC meeting, there are a number of things that should be watched for. Chair Jerome Powell will discuss the economic outlook and the monetary policy stance at the press conference. The staff will also release the...