Yen Recovers While Yields Retreat, Dollar Softens
The forex markets are rather consolidative today as traders are waiting for the next direction. European and Asian stock display some mild strength but that is far from being impressive. US futures are also mixed as NASDAQ might has a little retreat before deciding to extend the record run....
Risk Rally Pauses in Asia, Forex Markets Await Next Move
Asian markets are relatively quiet as another week starts. There is no follow through from Friday's strong rally in the US. Trade data from China released over the weekend also provide little inspirations. There is also practically no reaction to the massive global "Black Lives Matter" protests, nor intensifying...
Investors in Euphoria, Betting on a V-Shaped Recovery
The global financial markets were basically in euphoria last week. Lockdown restrictions continued to be eased. ECB provided more stimulus by expanding the crisis purchase program. Surprised growth in US and Canadian employment in May argue that the worst of coronavirus pandemic is already behind us. More importantly, investors...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Long bets on USD, whilst Shorts in NZD and CAD Futures Dropped
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 2, NET LENGTH in USD Index fell -6 541 contracts to 8 258. Speculative long positions decreased -3 162 contracts and short positions were up +3 379 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Higher Crude Oil Price, and Lower Gold Price, as Risk Appetite Returned
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 2, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures rose +25 756 contracts to 568 330 for the week. Speculative long positions soared +27 938 contracts while shorts added +2 182 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Dollar Trying a Rebound as NFP Grew in May, Yen and Franc Weaken
Dollar attempts to rebound after non-farm payroll employment unexpectedly rebounded while unemployment rate fell. But strength is mainly centered against Yen, Swiss Franc, and to a lesser extent Euro. Commodity currencies continue to be the strongest ones, together with Sterling. Canadian Dollar also firms up on job growth but...
Dollar Stays Weak as Risk Takes a Breather, NFP Unlikely to Rescue
Dollar and Yen remain the overwhelmingly weakest ones for the week even though risk appetite seems to be taking a breather again. In particular, the greenback suffered steep selling after Euro bulls cheered ECB's PEPP expansion. The common currency is one of the strongest one this week, just next...
ECB Expands and Extends PEPP, after Sharply Downgrading Inflation
ECB’s increase in stimulus was slightly more than we had anticipated. The move was mainly driven by the sharp downgrade in inflation outlook. The decision has sent a strong message to the market that the central bank is “undeterred” by German constitutional court’s ruling and will continue to adjust...
Euro Welcomes ECB’s PEPP Expansion, Resuming Rally
Euro strengthens again after ECB announced expansion of its crisis asset purchase program PEPP. Euro is also taking Swiss Franc mildly higher too. On the other hand, Sterling is the weakest one as pressured by the selloff against Euro. Canadian Dollar is following as the second weakest for the...
Euro Softens as Markets Await ECB, Dollar in Weak Recovery
Dollar recovers mildly in general as recent selloff is losing some momentum. The recovery is also accompanied by mild retreat in Euro as well as some weakness in Gold. Though, the strength of Dollar's recovery is far from being strong enough to warrant short term bottoming yet. As for...
BOC Turns More Optimistic About Economy, Scales Back Term Financing
Turning more optimistic on the economic outlook, BOC scaled back some term financing facilities, while leaving the policy rate and QE programs unchanged. Policymakers suggested that the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic have peaked, despite ongoing uncertainties.
The members have turned more optimistic about the economic developments. The judged that...
US Oil Inventory Surprisingly Dropped
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks rose 5.04 mmb to 1399.92 mmb in the week ended May 29. Crude oil inventory dropped -2.08 mmb (consensus: +3.04 mmb) to 532.35 mmb. Stockpile fell in 3 out...
Investors Sentiment Resilient, But Forex Markets Turning Mixed
There is not much change in the global investor sentiments today, as stock markets continue to rally on lockdown exit optimism. Much better than expected job data from the US also provide something to cheer. Though, in the currency markets, recent moves appear to have been exhausted. Australian Dollar...
ECB Preview – Lagarde to Expand PEPP and Sharply Downgrade GDP and Inflation Forecasts
We expect ECB to add more stimuli and downgrade it macroeconomic projections at the upcoming meeting. It is likely that the more flexible PEPP will be expanded and extended. Previous meetings suggest that the members are reluctant to lower the deposit rate further. The concerns are mainly the limited...
Risk Appetite Lifted Further by China Data
Risk appetite continues in Asian session, with help from positive data from China. China's economy appears to be on track for recovery even though the road would remain bumpy. In the currency markets, New Zealand Dollar is leading Australian Dollar higher, followed by Euro. Dollar, Yen, Swiss Franc continue...
Focus Turns to Yen and Franc Selling as Risk Rally Continues
Global stock markets continue with impressive rally today, with focuses on back-to-normal optimism. Germany's DAX is even more impressive, with more than 3.7% against at the time of writing, after a three-day break. It's supported by news that Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling coalition is working on another massive stimulus...
Aussie Firm as RBA Stands Pat, Risk Appetite Continues
Risk appetite continues today with mild strength in Asian markets, following the slightly higher close in US overnight. It seems that investors completing ignoring the unrest in the US, as well as its tension with China. In the currency markets, Sterling is currently the strongest one for today, followed...
New BOC Governor to Carry On Legacy, Keeping Rate and QE Intact
The upcoming BOC meeting (June 3) will be the first one headed by incoming Governor Tiff Macklem. We expect him to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.25%. The unconventional monetary policy, i.e.: QE, will also remain the same. Given the disappointing GDP and inflation data, the accompanying statement...
Euro Loses Some Upside Momentum While Risk Appetite Continues
Risk appetite remains generally firm in European session but trading has turned a bit subdued with France, Germany and Swiss on bank holiday. Dollar is trying to recovery entering into US session, but remains one of the weakest, along with Yen and Swiss France. Australian Dollar is leading commodity...
Aussie Surges as Markets in Full Risk-On, All Risks Shrugged
Risk-on mode continues in Asian markets today. Investors, in particular in Hong Kong markets, basically shrugged off US President Donald Trump's announcements regarding China. There is also no reaction to the unrest in US. Instead, traders continued to cheer economy reopening, as well as positive data from China. Australian...