Dollar Recover Mildly ahead of FOMC Minutes, Sterling Pares Gains
Dollar and Yen recover mildly today but remains the two weakest for the week. For now, there is little news regarding the US-China trade talks in Washington. Focus will turn to minutes of January 29/30 FOMC meeting first. There Fed made a drastic turn and declare it will be...
Dollar Turning Bearish on Fed Outlook and Yield Curve Inversion
Dollar was sold off broadly overnight, as dragged down by falling treasury yields. Also, recent comments from Fed officials continued to affirm the "patient" monetary policy stance. While the greenback is trying to recover in Asian session today, there is no clear follow through buying. The greenback will look...
Dollar Jumps as World Trade Outlook Worsened, Sterling Even Stronger
Sterling surges broadly in European session and it's trading as the strongest one for today so far. There is some support by slightly better than expected wage growth. Also, there could be some buying on expectation for the parliament to take over control on Brexit at a later stage,...
Dollar & Yen Recover as Markets Turn Cautious, US-China Trade Talks Resume Today
Dollar and Yen trade generally higher today as Asian markets turned mixed. The strong rally in Asian stocks yesterday was based on optimism on US-China trade negotiation. But such optimism has quickly turn into cautiousness. Another round of negotiation will start in Washington today, followed by high-level meeting later...
Euro and Sterling Strong for Today, But No Key Resistance Broken
Yen and Dollar are pressured for the whole day, and remain so in early US session. Risk appetite in Asian markets was boosted by optimism over US-China trade talks. There is hope that the meetings in Washington this week will eventually yield a memorandum of understanding of some sort,...
Asian Markets Boosted by Trade Optimism Again, Yen Broadly Lower
Yen remains the weakest one as another week starts with solid risk appetite. Sentiments towards US-China trade negotiation turned optimistic again after positive statements from both sides. Trump also hailed there were "big progress" during last week's meetings in Beijing. More talks are scheduled this week in Washington to...
US-China Trade Talks – Likely Extension of Trade Truce also Means Extension of Uncertainty and Market Volatility
We refrain from overtly optimistic over US-China trade negotiations. Following US officials’ Beijing trip which included a meeting with China’s Xi Jinping on Friday, both countries released their own statements. Yet, the tones of which suggested that discrepancies remain. While the market appears thrilled by the likely extension of...
Risk Appetite Boosted by Unknown Progress in US-China Trade Negotiation, More Talks Ahead
Trade talk optimism, trade pessimism, drove markets up and down last week. In the end, Presidents of US and China decided to give markets some lip service and boosted stocks towards weekly close. Words, rather than substance, are enough to make investors happy. Yen and Swiss Franc ended as...
US-China Trade Talks to Continue Next Week, Sentiments Lifted
Risk appetite seems to be given a lift again by words regarding US-China trade negotiations. There seems to be some consensuses and progress made even thought it's unsure what they exactly are. Nevertheless, at least, trade talks will resume next week in Washington, which is a positive sign. Yen...
Yen Strikes Back and Investors Dissatisfied With Lack of Trade Talk Progress
Yen is making a strong come back today and surges broadly. Investors are clearly unhappy with the lack of concrete progress with US-China trade negotiations. Sterling follows as the second strongest but it's just recovering some of this week's losses. Never-ending Brexit uncertainty is weighing on the Pound. Dollar...
China’s Inflation Weakened Sharply. Trade Improvement Masked by Seasonal Factor
Headline CPI eased to +1.7% y/y in January, missing consensus of and December’s +1.9%. The slowdown was mainly driven by food price which fell -0.6 percentage point to +1.9%. Non-food inflation steadied at +1.7%. PPI decelerated sharply to +0.1% y/y, from +0.9% a month ago. The market had already...
Dollar Dives as Retail Sales Dropped Most in 9-Years, But GBP and CAD Even Worse
Dollar suffers steep selloff in early US session after shockingly poor retail sales data. The release of December's sales was delayed due to government shutdown. And we've finally got some clues on how bad the US economy performed on double whammy on shutdown and trade war. Nevertheless, for now,...
BOJ Tapers? It’s Only Yield Curve Control Adjustment. Fragile Growth Outlook Despite Rebound in 4Q18
BOJ’s asset purchase activities have again caught market attention. Talks of tapering heightened last week as the central bank offered to buy 180B yen of 10- to 25-year JGBS. Concerns over a less accommodative monetary environment eased as the central bank offered to buy 430B yen of 5- to...
Japan & Germany Avoided Recession, Trade Talk Optimism, Yen Pressured
Australian and New Zealand Dollar are the strongest ones for today so far as the forex markets seem to be cheering positive developments in US-China trade negotiations. The idea of 60-day extension to trade truce is certainly welcomed given the complexity in the deal, in particular enforcement. Data from...
US Inventory Rose More than Expected. Yet, Crude Oil Price Strengthened on US-China Trade Hopes
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks jumped +6.53 mmb to 1265.51 mmb in the week ended February 8. Crude oil inventory added +3.63 mmb to 450.84 mmb (consensus: +2.67 mmb). Inventories increased in 3 out...
Dollar Trying to Rebound on CPI, Risk Appetite Continues
Strong risk appetite remains the main theme for today on trade optimism. Though, Dollar is trying to steal the show in early US session with stronger than expected inflation data. For now, Yen remains the weakest one for today. Euro follows as weighed down by poor industrial production data,...
Yen & Dollar Tumbles on US-China Trade Optimism, Kiwi Surges on RBNZ
Strong risk appetite dominates the financial markets today. Investors are getting more optimistic on US-China trade negotiations, with another round of talks happening in Beijing now. Both sides seem to express more desire to make a deal. Trump hinted that he's willing to let the March 1 trade truce...
NZD Jumped although RBNZ Postponed Timing of Rate Hike (At Least Not Expecting a Cut)
Kiwi rallied although RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.75% as anticipated. The central bank did turn slightly more dovish than in November but the market had expected more. The central bank indicated that “the tailwinds to growth have eased” while “trading-partner growth is starting to slow”. It also...
Risk Appetite Extends, Swiss Franc Decline Accelerates
Swiss Franc is overwhelmingly the weakest one today with fresh selling in early US session. While Japanese Yen is also weak, it's a relatively distant second. Both are pressured by extended rebound in global stocks. Meanwhile, additional pressure is seen on Franc from strong rebound in oil prices and...
Dollar Paring Gains, Focus Turns Back from Government Shutdown to Trade Talks
Dollar is paring some gains today after yesterday's rally, but remains the strongest one for the week. A temporary agreement was reached in the US Congress to avert another government shut down. Focus is turning back to trade negotiation with China in Beijing. There is little news regarding the...