Dollar Surges Against Yen and Swiss as US-China Trade Talks Resume
Yen and Swiss Franc are trading broadly lower today thanks to rebound in global equities. Fresh selling is seen on news that White House senior counselor Kellyanne Conway said Trump may still meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in the near future. And she said that it looks like US...
Sterling Soft as GDP, Productions and Trade Balance Awaited
Sterling is trading generally soft today, except versus Yen, as market focus turns to UK data. GDP, productions and trade balance will be featured. BoE just downgraded both growth and inflation forecasts last week, based on assumption on smooth Brexit. The Pound would be vulnerable to another round of...
Sanction on Venezuelan Exports Poses Little Impact on Oil Prices
Oil prices have got limited boost after the US imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s oil exports. The direction of oil price movement is ultimately driven by the expectations of demand and supply balance. Oil demand is anticipated to reduce for the years ago amidst global economic slowdown, which is intensified...
Dollar Emerged as Strongest in a Bad Batch on Global Slowdown Worries
Dollar ended last week as the strongest ones, mainly due to weakness elsewhere. Worries of global slowdown, or even recession, sent Germany and Japanese stocks sharply lower. Global treasury yields also tumbled on safe haven demand. Adding to that, renewed concern over re-escalation of US-China trade war also weighed...
Canadian Dollar Jumps on Job Data, Risk Aversion Dominates on Trade War Worries
Risk aversion is the main theme in the financial markets today. Worries over US-China trade tension escalation resurfaced after Trump said he will not meeting Chinese President Xi this month. This came despite Trump's schedule to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un on February 27-28 in Vietnam, just next...
RBNZ Preview – Turning More Dovish while Affirming Next Move Can be Up or Down
We expect RBNZ, at next week’s meeting, to leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75% and downgrade its economic growth forecasts. We believe the tone would be tilted to the dovish side as both global and domestic environment deteriorated since November. Increased downside risks and heightened uncertainty likely warrant a...
Yen Rises as Trade War Concern Resurfaces, RBA Hammers Aussie Again
Global markets are in mild risk averse mode on concerns over US-China trade talk. That came after Trump said he will not meet Chinese President Xi this month to complete the trade agreement. Yen and Swiss Franc are trading as the stronger ones, as lifted by falling treasury yields...
BOE Downgrades Growth and Inflation Forecasts, Expects Fewer Tightening Despite Retaining Forward Guidance
BOE joined other central banks in downgrading the economic growth outlook. In addition to heightened risks of global growth slowdown, ongoing Brexit uncertainty is the key concern for the members. The members voted unanimously to keep the Bank rate at 0.75% and the asset purchase program at 435B pound....
Sterling Survives Dovish BoE Selloff for Now, Yen Staying Strong
It's a very volatile day with two market moving events in BoE Super Thursday and EU economic forecasts. Sterling initially dived sharply after BoE downgraded economic forecasts and painted a slower rate path. But the Pound appears to rebound after BoE Governor Mark Carney insisted that the markets shouldn't...
Sterling Range Bound ahead of BoE Super Thursday, New Zealand Dollar Dives after Job Data
Sterling is generally steady today and gyrates in tight range. UK events are the major focuses with BoE Super Thursday featured. UK Prime Minister Theresa May will also visit Brussels to seek alternative arrangements on Irish border backstop. For now, the recovery in the Pound is rather weak. Real...
Less- than- Expected Increase in US Inventory Fails to Rescue Crude’s Weakness
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks declined -3.36 mmb to 1258.98 mmb in the week ended February 1. Crude oil inventory added +1.26 mmb to 447.21 mmb (consensus: +2.18 mmb). Inventories increased in 3 out...
Dollar Takes a Breather, Sterling Recovers Despite Brexit Spats
Dollar is taking a breather for in early US session but remains the strongest one for the week. Positive development on trade talk with China is providing some support to the greenback, except versus Yen, which is the strongest for today. Sterling is also trying to recover after this...
Aussie Dives as RBA Lowe Put Rate Cut Back on Table, Dollar Reversing?
Australian Dollar is again the focus in Asian session today. It drops sharply on surprised turn in RBA Governor Philip Lowe's stance. To him, the next interest rate move is no longer more likely a hike, but evenly balanced. Aussie reversed all of yesterday's gains and it's now trading...
Swiss Franc Leads European Majors Lower, Dollar Fighting Back
European majors are generally under pressure today. Weak economic data from Eurozone and UK is one of the factors. Stocks are indifferent to the data though, and rise broadly probably on expectation that loose monetary policy will stay longer. Selloff in Swiss Franc is also apparent, in particular with...
Australian Dollar Surges as RBA Maintains Tightening Bias Despite Growth and Inflation Downgrade
Australian Dollar jumps broadly today after RBA rate decision. While growth and inflation forecasts are downgraded, the overall announcement suggests that RBA is maintaining tightening bias. The next move on interest rate is still a hike even though it may take longer to happen. The positive impact of RBA...
RBA Review – Policy Rate to Stay Low for Some Time as Risks to Growth and Inflation Skewed to Downside
As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the 27th consecutive meeting. Yet, it has turned less optimistic about Australia’s economic outlook while noting downside risks to global growth.
As suggested in the accompanying statement, the members indicated that “the central scenario is for the Australian...
Yen Sold Off Broadly, Dollar Extends Recovery But Still Held Below Resistance Elsewhere
While Dollar is extending it's broad based recovery today, it's Yen's weakness that's worth more of a mention. There is no clear follow through in global stock rally today. Yet Yen is under broad based pressure and it's overtaking Aussie as the weakest one in early US session. Aussie,...
Dollar Recovering Broadly, But Held Below Near Term Resistance
Dollar is trading broadly higher today, trying to recovery some of last week's losses. New Zealand Dollar follows closely, which Canadian Dollar is also a close third. Yen and Australian Dollar are taking turns to be the weakest ones. Mildly risk appetite is pressuring both Yen and Swiss Franc....
BOE Preview – Downgrade on Economic Outlook as Brexit Remains Uncertain
Again, we expect BOE to vote unanimously to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75%, as well as to leave the asset purchase program at 435B pound, at the February meeting. While the focus of the meeting remains on Brexit uncertainty, economic assessment and forward guidance, the dynamics of...
Dollar Down But Not Out after Fed, Oil Lifted Canadian, Iron Ore Boosted Australian
Fed's dovish turn occupied a lot of head lines last week. Stocks were lifted while Dollar was pressured. However, the moves were not as drastic as they could seem to be. There was no upside acceleration in stocks. Treasury yield actually dropped at the long end, indicating that expectations...