Mon, Feb 17, 2020 @ 06:22 GMT
FOMC raised the fed funds target range, by +25 bps, to 0.75%-1.00% with 9-1 vote. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dissented as he favored leaving the monetary policy unchanged. The Summary of Projections (SEP) shows virtually the same macroeconomic outlook. Moreover, the median dot plot maintained three rate hikes this year and in 2018. Chair Janet Yellen noted that that the projections have not included potential fiscal stimulus promised by President Donald Trump. She also noted that the Committee discussed on balance sheet policy but no conclusion was reached. The market was disappointed, reflected in the decline in US dollar and Treasury yields, as they had anticipated more hawkish statement and some upward adjustments in economic forecasts.
BOE is almost certain to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% in the May meeting. Weakness in PMI data released last week aggravated concerns that recent the moderation in economic activities might persist. Doubts have arisen that whether...
As widely anticipated, RBA left its cash rate, for an 8th meeting, at 1.5% in April. While headline CPI has more or less reached the central bank's target level, the core reading has remained subdued. Policymakers have decided to take more time to gauge the inflation outlook before action. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has remained elevated while excess capacity in the job market has rendered wage growth weak. The RBA reiterated its rhetoric on the housing market, suggesting conditions 'continue to vary considerably around the country'. Policymakers would be cautious over adopting another rate cut as previous reductions have caused a surge in housing produces and rebound in investment related credit growth. A rate hike is equally unlikely as Australian dollar has remained at historically high levels.
At the August 9 meeting (this Thursday), we expect RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75% and deliver a neutral to slightly dovish policy statement. Since the June meeting, data showed that economic growth moderated while inflation picked...
RBA, in its June meeting minutes, explicitly noted that the policy rate would be lower. This message came in more dovish than market expectations. The major concern remained in the lackluster improvement in the labor market. RBA cut the...
Despite BOC’s effort to temper the need of a rate cut, the market is obviously unconvinced. Market participants continue to price in about 30% chance of rate cut later this year and USDCAD surged to the highest level since...
FOMC voted unanimously to leave its policy rate within a target range of 0.50-0.75%. The outcome had been widely anticipated as the Fed just adopted rate hike of +25 bps in December. Only minor changes were seen in the accompanying statement. In short, policymakers retained the stance that future interest rate change would be 'data dependent'. They also reiterated that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal fund rate'. The market has only priced in 2 rate hikes this year, although the December dot plot signaled there might be 3. CME’s 30-day Fed fund futures suggested a 17.7% chance of rate hike in March, down from 20.3% prior to FOMC meeting. Yet, they priced in a 38.8% chance in May, compared with 37.7% the day before the meeting.
We expect BOE to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.75% this week. It would also keep the size of the asset purchase program at 435B pound. Although there has been some noise pushing for a rate hike, we...
As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the 27th consecutive meeting. Yet, it has turned less optimistic about Australia’s economic outlook while noting downside risks to global growth. As suggested in the accompanying statement, the...
FOMC members decided unanimously to keep the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 2.25-2.50%. Meanwhile, the IOER was lowered to 2.35% from 2.4%. The slight change in the accompanying statement showed a more upbeat assessment on...
At the BOC meeting next week, we expect Governor Stephen Poloz to reinstate the stance that the next policy rate move would be data-dependent. The latest inflation report surprised to the upside. Yet, the central bank would likely look...
The FOMC minutes for the June meeting revealed that the members were confident over the growth and inflation outlook, although they acknowledged intensifying trade conflicts. There were discussions over the term structure of interest rates. While many of them...
We expect ECB to implement more easing measures to stimulate the economy, and the timing would likely be in September. The July meeting, scheduled later this week, would be used to prepare the market further the easing package. Over...
RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.75%. To our surprise, policymakers appeared more upbeat on the economic outlook than we had anticipated. While acknowledging uncertainty to growth mainly driven by bushfires and China’s coronavirus, the members adopt a...
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