Gold in Steep Correction as Global Stocks in Strong Rally
The global financial markets continue to trade in full risk-on mode today. In particular, US futures point to sharply higher open as S&P 500 would likely take on new record high. Canadian Dollar is currently the strongest one for today, as lifted by mildly higher oil price. Australian Dollar...
Crude’s Strength Might Pause as OPEC+ Output Set to Increase Further this Month
Crude oil prices remained firm, after the rally in July. The front-month WTI crude oil contract gained +2.36% in the first week of August, after gaining +2.55% in the month of July. The Brent contract rose +2.54%, following a +5.22% rally in July. Profit-taking might be seen in coming...
Markets Back in Risk-On Mode While Dollar, Yen and Franc Weaken
Asian markets surge broadly today, following the strong close in US stocks. DOW is finally catching up by a powerful break through June's high while S&P 500 is closing in on record high. Investors welcomed the news of falling coronavirus hospitalizations in New Work, California and Texas. The trade...
Swiss Franc Weakens While Markets Tread Water
Markets continue to tread water today with little movements. European indices are fluctuating in tight range between gain and loss. US futures point to mildly higher open. In the currency markets, most major pairs and crosses are stuck in side Friday's range. Swiss franc is currently weakest, followed by...
Subdued Trading With Japan and Singapore on Holiday, Dollar Yet to Confirm Rebound
The week starts with a rather subdued tone without much activity. It's National Day of Singapore while Japan is also on Mountain Day holiday. There is also no further price movements on US-China tensions. Major forex pairs and crosses are stuck inside Friday's range, with Dollar and Swiss Franc...
RBNZ Preview: Expect QE Size Expansion and More Discussion on Negative Rates
We expect RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 0.25% this week. It will likely increase the size of the Large-Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) Program (QE) to NZD 80-90B from the current NZD 60B. The accompanying statement would contain a dovish tone, with policymakers discussing more alternative policy tools...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold’s Net Length Climbed Slightly as Short Positions Emerged after Weeks’ of Rally
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 4, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +3 697 contracts to 536 266 for the week. Speculative long position rose +16 930 contracts, while shorts gained +13 233. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on USD amidst Hopes of Recovery
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 4, NET SHORT for USD Index futures decreased -252 to 6 475 contracts. Bets fell on both sides as the greenback is still finding bottom after losing almost -10% against a basket of currencies since...
Dollar Trying For Rebound after Trump’s Combination Move Against CCP
Dollar was under pressure most of the week on risk-on sentiments. NASDAQ gapped higher and marched to new record highs. Nevertheless, the greenback staged a notable comeback after combination move by the US administration against the Chinese Communist Party, with bans on TikTok and WeChat, as well as sanction...
Dollar Shrugs Better Than Expected NFP, Still Struggling to Extend Rebound
Reactions to the better than expected job data from US and Canada are rather muted. The greenback is currently trying to extend recovery. Yet, it's still the worst performing one for the week. Eyes remain on developments of US-China relations. But it probably takes a bit more time for...
China’s Trade Surplus Widened in July, Trade Deal Review Next Week In Focus
China’s trade data surprised to the upside in July. This was mainly driven by strong exports, offsetting decline in imports. Exports gained +7.2% y/y in July, following a 0.5% increase a month. This has beaten consensus of a -0.6% drop. From a month ago, exports rose +5.7$, after climbing...
Dollar Recovers on US-China Tech War, But Big NFP Challenge Ahead
The markets turn into mild risk-off mode in Asia, after US President Donald Trump stepped up the tech war with China, by banning TikTok and WeChat. Commodity currencies are generally lower as lead by Australian Dollar. On the other hand, Dollar and Yen strengthen broadly. Nevertheless, for the week,...
Dollar Stabilizes after Jobless Claims, But No Rebound Yet
Sterling remain remains the strongest one for today, as it's maintaining post BoE gains. Nevertheless, there is no apparent follow through buying after the initial surge. On the other hand, Dollar appears to be stabilizing mildly, and it's receiving some support from better than expected jobless claims. Though, the...
Sterling Lifted after BoE, Dollar Remains the Worst One for the Week
Sterling strengthens generally today after BoE stands pat. Even though investments remained weak, the central offered some optimism in the way that spending recovered significantly. At this point, Euro is the second strongest, followed by Yen. New Zealand Dollar and Canadian are the weaker ones. For the week, however,...
US Crude Oil Inventory Sank for Second Consecutive Week, While Refined Product Stocks Increased
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -2.11 mmb to 1452.57 mmb in the week ended July 31. Crude oil inventory declined -7.37 mmb (consensus: -3 mmb) to 518.6 mmb. Stockpile fell in 3 out...
Dollar Selloff Intensifies after Huge Miss of ADP Job Data
Dollar's selloff intensifies in early US session after ADP job report hugely missed expectations. The strong upward revision in prior month's figure just make the picture looks worse, exaggeration the steep slowdown in labor market rebound. At this point, Yen is following the greenback as then second weakest, then...
Gold Breaks US$2000/oz as US dollar Loses Credibility as Reserve Currency
Breaking yet another new record, gold price has surpassed psychological level US$2000/oz. As we mentioned in last week’s report, the key drivers for the rally are low real yields and rising inflation expectations. Weakness is US dollar is another driver for the yellow metal's strength. However, the negative correlation...
Dollar Tumbles as Gold and NASDAQ Hit New Records
Dollar is back in selloff mode again after rebound attempt failed. The broad based trend against the greenback is clear, with gold hitting new record high above 2000 handle. WTI crude oil is also back above 41, pressing 42 handle. Overall risk-on sentiments, with NADSAQ making new record high,...
Dollar Having Another Rebound Attempt, Sterling Pulls Back
Dollar is having another rally attempt today and appears to be making some progress, at least against the relatively weaker Sterling. At this point, Swiss Franc is the strongest one, followed by the greenback. Australian Dollar is also firm after a non-eventful RBA rate decision. On the other hand,...
Aussie Firmer after RBA, Dollar Rebound Fades
Dollar turns soft again after momentum for rebound faded quickly. Euro and Swiss Franc are back in control even though they're still generally range bound. Australian Dollar is following closely after RBA stands pat as widely expected. Recovery is still expected and the central didn't sound concerned with recent...