BOC to Leave Rate Unchanged at 1.75%. Disappointing Data Likely Due to Temporary Factors
BOC is likely to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at the meeting this week. While several macroeconomic data released since the December meeting surprised to the downside, it could take a few more months to confirm the trend. BOC also appears to have downplayed the downside risks...
Dollar Rises Again after Brief Retreat, EUR/USD Pressing Key Support
Dollar, Canadian and Yen are so far the strongest ones in a relatively quiet day. The greenback is supported by recent data as well as easing trade tension. But as the US economic calendar is ultra light this week, Dollar's fate is likely on others' hands. Canadian Dollar is...
ECB to Leave Monetary Policy Unchanged, Focus Turns to Strategic Review
At the upcoming meeting, ECB members would likely acknowledge stabilization in the region’s economy, while reiterating accommodative monetary policy. The focus of the meeting would be the strategic review, the first assessment of the central bank’s monetary policy in two decades. We do not anticipate any change in the...
Dollar Retreats Mildly in Quiet Markets, Three Central Banks to Meet this Week
The financial markets are generally steady in Asian session today. Dollar turns slightly softer against Euro and commodity currencies, but losses are so far limited. Though, Sterling is clearly weak as pressured by speculations of BoE rate cut. The Pound will face some more challenges from economic data this...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH for DXY Index Futures Climbed Mildly Higher
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 14. NET LENGTH in USD Index added +795 contracts to 13 263. Speculative long positions gaomed +1 765 contracts and short positions added +970 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures declined -13...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH for Crude Oil Declined on Profit Taking
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 14. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -36 960 contracts to 530 312 for the week. Speculative long positions fell -28 565 contracts while shorts gained +8 395 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Dollar Could Be Staging Bullish Reversal as Trade Tensions Eased
The completion of US-China trade deal phase one was well received by investors. There was an additional bonus of scrapping the label of China as currency manipulator by the US Treasury. The is no time frame for the phase two negotiations yet. But the US is already working with...
Dollar Rises Broadly, But Upside Capped by Mixed Data
Dollar strengthens broadly today but upside is somewhat limited by mixed US economic data. Canadian Dollar is following as the second strongest as oil prices recover mildly. On the other hand, both Swiss Franc and Euro are paring some of this week's gains. Weakness also spread to Sterling, which...
Dollar Mildly Firmer in Mixed Markets, Aussie Soft
Dollar is trading with a mildly firm tone in Asian session today, riding on solid data from US released overnight. But there is no clear committed buying seen yet. Meanwhile, Australian and Canadian Dollars both turned weaker but New Zealand Dollar is trading higher broadly. Over the week, Yen...
Yen and Dollar Lower as US Investors Cheer Trade Deal, Markets Mixed Elsewhere
Yen and Dollar trade broadly lower today while markets are having different reactions to US-China trade deal phase one, which was signed finally yesterday. Asian stocks were mixed while European stocks are soft. But US futures point to higher open, probably extending recent record runs, while 10-year yield is...
Markets Shrug US-China Trade Deal, Dollar Await Retail Sales
The US-China trade deal phase one was finally signed but market reactions were muted. US stock indices hit record highs but gains were limited. On the other hand, there were notable fund flows into bonds and Swiss Franc over political uncertainties in Russia. In the currency markets, over the...
US-China Phase I Trade Deal Signed, Execution & Phase II Negotiations the Next Focus
Signing of the Phase I trade deal marks an end of the beginning the trade war between the US and China. While the deal covers various areas of great concerns to the US, including China’s imports of US goods and services, China’s handling of intellectual properties, technological transfer and...
Swiss Franc Surges after Russian Prime Minister Resigns, Taking Euro Higher
Swiss Franc jumps broadly on political news from Russia today and takes the Euro higher. Yen follow as third strongest on risk aversion as European stocks also dive on the news. Sterling is among the weakest, following weaker than expected CPI, as well as dovish comments from a BoE...
Sentiments Softer as Tariffs Will Stay after US China Trade Deal Phase One
The forex markets are rather mixed today as traders are holding their bets ahead of signing of US-China trade deal phase one. Sentiments turned softer after US indicated that tariffs will stay in place before conclusion of phase two. But the impact is so far limited. Sterling pares back...
Dollar Firm as after CPI, EUR/CHF Downside Breakout
Dollar rises broadly in rather quiet markets today. Consumer inflation data from the US is supporting the greenback's firmness, but provides not further lift. Indeed, Swiss Franc is even stronger, as the best performing one today so far. China Yuan is also notably stronger than Dollar, after US scrapped...
Low Base and Frontloading Drove China’s Trade Higher in December
China’s foreign trade surprised to the upside in December. Exports rose +7.6% y/y in the last month of 2019, compared with consensus of +2.9%. Meanwhile, imports jumped +13.6% y/y, beating expectations of +9.6%. Both outbound and inbound shipment improved in December from a month ago. Exports in November contracted...
Sentiments Lifted as US Scrapped China’s Currency Manipulator Label
Yen weakens broadly today as markets are generally in risk on mode. US stocks rose broadly overnight with S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing at record highs. Sentiments were lifted as US scrapped labeling of China as currency manipulator, just ahead of trade deal signing on Wednesday. Asian stocks are...
Sterling Dives after Poor GDP, Yen Lower on Rising Yields
Sterling is sold off broadly today as poor GDP data added to the case of BoE rate cut. Recent comments from BoE officials already suggested that they're open to easing if data don't show improvement. The Pound will face more tests from CPI and retail sales later in the...
Risk On Ahead of US-China Trade Deal, Sterling Weak and Aussie Firm
Asian markets are generally in risk on mode today as traders await signing of US-China trade deal phase one. Commodity currencies strengthen with Australian Dollar leading the way up. On the other hand, Sterling is currently the weakest one as weighed down by dovish comments from BoE officials. A...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET SHORT on Safe Haven Currencies Fell as Risk Sentiment Improved
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 7. NET LENGTH in USD Index added +414 contracts to 12 468. Speculative long positions dropped -1 120 contracts and short positions fell -1 534 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures declined...