Bitcoin’s sharp selloff this week indicates that the latest rebound has possibly already run its course, suggesting that medium-term correction is entering another downward phase. The move follows a difficult November, when Bitcoin posted its largest monthly decline since mid-2021 as a record volume of capital exited the market. Momentum remains soft, and technical structure points to further pressure ahead.
Sentiment deteriorated further on Monday after Strategy — the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin — cut its earnings outlook for 2025, citing Bitcoin’s weak performance. More broadly, Bitcoin appears to be suffering from fading enthusiasm within both the digital-asset community and the wider tech sector, where concerns about market concentration, infrastructure constraints, and slowing global cooperation are resurfacing.
Technically, the near-term rebound from 80,492 looks to have topped at 93,074. Retest of 80,492 is now the immediate focus, and firm break would resume the entire decline from 126,289. In any case, outlook will stays firmly bearish as long as 55 D EMA (now at 99,564) holds.
In the bigger picture, Bitcoin is clearly correcting the full five-wave uptrend from the 15,452 (2022 low). While further decline is expected, the 70,000 psychological region is expected to provide strong initial support for an interim base. That aligns with several structural levels: 74,373 support, 73,812 former resistance-turned-support, and 50% retracement of 15,452 to 126,289 at 70,870. This cluster reinforces the area’s importance in defining the medium-term floor.
Meanwhile sustained break back above the 55 W EMA (now at 97,447), would indicate that the medium-term correction from 126,289 has already shifted into a second leg, opening the door for a more sustained rebound. Until then, price risks remain skewed to the downside as the market digests weakening sentiment and tightening technical conditions.
Sterling breaks key levels in EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF on stronger UK outlook
Sterling is clearly outperforming both Euro and Swiss Franc this week, as markets continue to unwind the defensive positioning built ahead of the Autumn Budget. The announcement was broadly well received, with investors encouraged by the government’s emphasis on fiscal discipline and medium-term stability. The shift has helped ease earlier concerns over the UK’s fiscal outlook while reinforcing confidence in the Pound.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves managed to assemble a broad combination of tax measures that collectively reduce the deficit by more than markets had anticipated. Crucially, the package delivered the fiscal credibility that investors had been demanding without leaning into excessively front-loaded austerity. With meaningful tightening delayed, the budget does not add pressure on the BoE to accelerate its cutting cycle in the coming year.
The UK also received a further tailwind from the OECD, which upgraded its growth outlook for 2026 to 1.2% (from 1.0%) and now sees GDP expanding 1.3% in 2027. The organization cited supportive impacts from Reeves’ budget on consumption, alongside global uncertainty that may keep inflation sticky enough to limit aggressive policy easing. For markets, the upgraded profile reinforces the idea that the UK may outperform its European peers over the next two years.
On the technical side, EUR/GBP’s break below the 55 D EMA confirms rejection at the long-term 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. With clear bearish divergence on D MACD, the cross should have set a medium-term top at 0.8633.
Deeper fall is now in favor back to 0.8631 cluster (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618), even if the decline from 0.8863 is just a correction to the up trend from 0.8221 (2024 low).
GBP/CHF is also turning structurally higher after breaking above 1.0658 (previous support turned resistance) and 55 D EMA, confirming a medium-term bottom at 1.0362. Bullish convergence in the D MACD supports the upside case, with next targets at the 38.2% retracement of 1.1675 to 1.0362 at 1.0864, and potentially 55 W EMA (now at 1.0906) if momentum continues.