Eurozone goods exports rose 14.0% yoy to EUR 247.6B in April. Goods imports rose 1.8% yoy to EUR 232.5B. Trade balance showed EUR 15.0B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 5.8% yoy to EUR 222.89B.
In seasonally adjusted term, goods exports rose 3.1% mom to EUR 245.3B. imports rose 2.3% mom to EUR 225.9B. Trade balance reported EUR 19.4B surplus, above expectation of EUR 17.0B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 1.5% mom to EUR 217.7B.
BoJ left uncollateralized overnight call rate unchanged at 0-0.10% as widely expected. In addition, BoJ will continue its asset purchase program until the end of June. The central bank, by an 8-1 majority vote, has also decided to reduce its JBG purchase amounts afterward.
The detailed plan for the reduction in JGB purchases, which will cover the next one to two years, is set to be determined by at next meeting. Apparently, BoJ would likely to have access to the new economic and price output report before laying out the plan.
BoJ is optimistic about Japan’s economic prospects, projecting that the economy will grow at a rate above its potential growth rate. Core CPI is expected to increase through fiscal 2025 due to factors such as the waning effects of government economic measures. Furthermore, underlying inflation is predicted to gradually rise as the output gap improves and medium-to long-term inflation expectations climb.
New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped from 48.8 to 47.2 in May, marking the sector’s 15th consecutive month of contraction.
Looking as some details, production plummeted from 50.3 to 44.5, indicating a sharp return to contraction. Employment showed a slight decline from 50.9 to 50.6. New orders fell further from 45.4 to 44.4, maintaining their contraction for the 21st straight month. Finished stocks rose from 50.7 to 52.4, but deliveries fell from 48.1 to 45.2.
Despite the decline in the overall index, the proportion of negative comments decreased to 63.5% from 69% in April and 65% in March. Most negative feedback highlighted the general economic slowdown and the current recessionary pressures.
US initial jobless claims rose 13k to 242k in the week ending June 8, above expectation of 227k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 5k to 222k.
Continuing claims rose 30k to 1820k in the week ending June 1. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 8.5k to 1797k.
US PPI for final demand fell -0.2% mom in May, below expectation of 0.2% mom rise. PPI goods fell -0.8% mom, largest decline since October 2023. PPI energy fell -4.8% mom. PPI food fell -0.1% mom while PPI ex food and energy rose 0.3% mom. PPI services was unchanged. PPPI less foods, energy, and trade services was also unchanged.
For the 12-month period, PPI rose 2.2% yoy, matched expectations. final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.2% yoy.
Eurozone industrial production fell -0.1% mom in April, worse than expectation of 0.1% mom growth. Industrial production, decreased by -0.4% for intermediate goods. Production increased by by 0.4% for energy, 0.7% for capital goods, 0.3% for durable consumer goods, and 3.4% for non-durable consumer goods.
EU industrial production rose 0.5% mom. The highest monthly increases were recorded in Denmark (+10.4%), Greece (+7.0%) and Poland (+6.7%). The largest decreases were observed in Luxembourg (-6.7%), Latvia (-4.9%) and Ireland (-3.4%).
ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle has hinted at the possibility of further rate cuts this year, provided the baseline scenario holds and economic data supports such a move.
Speaking to Finance newspaper, Vasle said, “If the baseline scenario is realized and the data are favorable, then we can probably expect further rate cuts already this year, and then also next year.”
However, he cautioned that if the economic conditions are not as supportive, it would be prudent to “wait some more time with further steps.”
Vasle also highlighted several risks that could slow down the disinflation process, pointing to “relatively strong” momentum in wages, ongoing economic growth, and geopolitical uncertainties. These factors could impact the ECB’s decision-making process regarding future rate cuts.
Australia’s labor market demonstrated resilience in May, with employment increasing by 39.7k, slightly surpassing expectations of 39.0k. Full-time jobs saw a significant rise of 41.7k, while part-time jobs experienced a slight decline of -2.1k.
Unemployment rate decreased from 4.1% to 4.0%, aligning with market forecasts. Key labor metrics, such as the employment-to-population ratio and the participation rate, remained steady at 64.1% and 66.8%, respectively. However, monthly hours worked dipped by -0.5% on a month-over-month basis.
Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labor statistics, highlighted that the number of unemployed people, though nearing 600k, is still about 110k fewer than in March 2020, before the pandemic.
Additionally, both the employment-to-population ratio and participation rate are significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Jarvis pointed out that these factors, along with sustained high job vacancy levels, indicate that the labor market “remains relatively tight, though less so than in late 2022 and early 2023.”
S&P 500 and NASDAQ extended their record runs overnight, but that was mainly fueled by softer-than-expected May US CPI data. Market reaction to FOMC’s rate decision was indeed subdued, reflecting the balanced nature of the new economic projections and dot plot, which offered something for both hawks and doves.
On the hawkish side, the median projection now indicates only one rate cut this year, a sharp shift from the three cuts anticipated back in March. The balance of the dot plot showed 11 members favoring one or no cuts versus 8 members advocating for two cuts, indicating a significant hurdle for those seeking more aggressive rate reductions.
Although some argue that not all FOMC members vote on policy decisions, potentially making the actual voting balance more dovish, it’s clear that Fed will require further encouraging inflation data, similar to the yesterday’s May CPI figures, before considering any policy easing.
Another hawkish signal was the increase in the long-run “neutral” rate from 2.6% to 2.8%. This rate has now risen by more than a quarter of a percentage point over Fed’s last two sets of projections. That suggests officials believe inflation will be more challenging to control in the future. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the significance of this increase, noting that it does not necessarily influence short-term rate projections.
On the dovish side, no FOMC members projected another rate hike, compared to two who had previously indicated the possibility of one more hike. This consensus suggests that all policymakers prefer to maintain the current interest rate level to combat inflation rather than tightening further, which should reassure most investors.
Going forward, Powell emphasized that Fed would make decisions based on the totality of incoming data rather than pre-determining future actions. He elaborated, “it’s going to be not just the inflation readings. It’s going to be the totality of the data, what’s happening in the labor market, what’s happening with the balance of risks, what’s happening with the forecasts, what’s happening with growth.”
Currently, Fed funds futures indicate a 61% chance of a rate cut in September, even lower than the 69% chance a week ago before the release of strong non-farm payroll data. The odds would likely continue to fluctuate in the current range until significant progress is seen in disinflation.
Fed left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as widely expected. The new economic projections are slightly on the hawkish side, indicating that the majority of FOMC expects only one rate cut this year. The neutral rate was also raised. But investors could be relieved that no FOMC member expects any more rate hike.
In the latest median projections, federal funds rate forecast was raised from 4.6% to 5.1% by the end of 2024, indicating only one rate cut fro current level. Federal funds rate is projected to fall to 4.1% (prior 3.9%) by the end of 2025, and 3.1% (unchanged_) by the end of 2026. Additionally, the longer run interest rate was raised from 2.6% to 2.8%, indicating a higher neutral rate.
GDP growth forecasts were left unchanged at 2.1% in 204, 2.0% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Headline PCE inflation was raised to 2.6% (up from 2.4%) in 2024, raised to 2.3% (up from 2.2%) in 2025, and left unchanged at 2.0% in 2026. Core PCE inflation forecast was also raised to 2.8% (up from 2.6%) in 2024, raised to 2.3% (up from 2.2%) in 2025, and left unchanged at 2.0% in 2026.
In the new dot plot, no policymaker makers expect any more rate hike. Four expects interest rate to stay unchanged at 5.25-5.50% through 2024 while seven expect one rate cut to 5.00-5.25%. Eight members project two rate cuts to 4.75-5.25% this year.
US CPI was flat at 0.0% mom in May below expectation of 0.2% mom. CPI core (all items less food and energy)rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom. Food prices rose 0.1% mom, while energy prices fell -2.0% mom.
For the 12-month period, CPI slowed from 3.4% yoy to 3.3% yoy, below expectation of 3.4% yoy. CPI core decelerated from 3.6% yoy to 3.4% yoy, below expectation of 3.5% yoy. Food prices was up 2.1% yoy while energy prices rose 3.7% yoy.
UK GDP showed no growth in April, aligning with market expectations. The data reveals a mixed picture, with certain sectors compensating for declines in others.
Services output grew by 0.2% mom, marking its fourth consecutive month of growth, underscoring the resilience of the services sector. Conversely, production output fell by -0.9% mom, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industrial sector. Construction output declined by -1.4% mom, continuing its downward trend for the third straight month.
Looking at the three-month period from February to April compared to the preceding three months from November to January, GDP grew by 0.7%. Within this period, services expanded by 0.9%, driven by consistent monthly gains. Production also showed a positive trend with a 0.7% increase, despite the monthly volatility. However, construction suffered a -2.2% decline, indicating sustained weakness in this sector.
Global financial markets are on high alert today as they await two critical announcements from the US, including the release of May’s CPI and FOMC rate decision accompanied by new economic projections. These events are expected to play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and monetary policy outlooks.
Analysts expect headline CPI to remain steady at 3.4% yoy, while core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to dip further from 3.6% yoy to 3.5% yoy. On a month-over-month basis, headline CPI is projected to rise by 0.2% mom, and core CPI by 0.3% mom.
Regarding Fed’s upcoming decision, the consensus is that interest rates will be held steady at 5.25-5.50%. However, the focus will be on the updated dot plot, which reflects the rate expectations of Fed policymakers. Key questions include how many policymakers now foresee fewer than two rate cuts this year and whether any still see the need for further hikes.
Current market sentiment suggests that Fed might only cut rates once this year, with an 88.5% probability of a cut by December. The chances of a rate cut in September stand at 52.6%, while the likelihood of a cut in November is slightly higher at 67.1%. These expectations will be closely scrutinized against the backdrop of today’s announcements.
Ahead of theses key events, NASDAQ is looking unstoppable as it surged to fresch all-time highs. S&P 500 also closed at record but its gain was dwarfed by the tech index, while DOW lagged further behind with a loss.
Technically, further rise is expected in NASDAQ as long as 17343.54 support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 12543.85 to 16538.86 from 1522.77 at 17691.68. Firm break there could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 19217.78. On the downside, break of 17343.54 will bring consolidations first before staging another rally.
China’s CPI rose 0.3% yoy in May, unchanged from the previous month’s reading and falling short of the expected 0.4% yoy increase. Food prices declined by -2.0% yoy, while non-food prices saw a modest increase of 0.8% yoy. Prices of consumer goods remained flat, and service prices rose by 0.8% yoy .
On a monthly basis, CPI edged down by -0.1% mom, missing the expectation of no change. Food prices were stable, but non-food prices fell by -0.2% mom, consumer goods prices decreased by -0.1% mom, and service prices also fell by 0.1% mom.
PPI dropped by -1.4% yoy, an improvement from the previous month’s -2.5% yoy decline and better than the expected -1.8% yoy fall. Despite this improvement, PPI has been negative for the 20th consecutive month, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the industrial sector.
Japan’s corporate goods price index accelerated from 1.1% yoy to 2.4% yoy in May, surpassing expectations of 2.0% yoy increase. This marks the fastest annual rise in nine months. The Yen-based import goods price index also rose 6.9% yoy , up from a 6.6% yoy gain in April, indicating that the Yen’s depreciation is driving up the cost of raw material imports.
In a related development, a draft government policy blueprint released today emphasizes Japan’s commitment to using “all policy tools” to sustain wage hikes. These wage increases are deemed crucial for ending deflation and achieving consistent economic growth above 1%, despite the country’s rapidly shrinking population.
In the Global Economic Prospects, the World Bank raised its global growth forecast for 2024 by 0.2% to 2.6%, which matches the pace of 2023. Growth is expected to rise slightly to 2.7% in both 2025 and 2026, but still well below the pre-pandemic average of 3.1%.
“In a sense, we see the runway for a soft landing,” said World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose. “That’s the good news. What is not good news is that we may be stuck in the slow lane.”
The report includes an alternative scenario where persistent inflation in advanced economies keeps interest rates about 40 basis points higher than the baseline forecast, potentially cutting 2025 global growth to 2.4%.
For the US, the World Bank now predicts 2.5% growth in 2024, consistent with the 2023 rate and up from January’s forecast of 1.6%. Growth is expected to slow to 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026.
In the Eurozone, growth is projected to accelerate to 0.7% in 2024, unchanged from previous forecasts, and then increase to 1.4% in 2025 before slightly dipping to 1.3% in 2026.
Japan’s growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down to 0.7% from 0.9%, due to weak consumption and slowing exports, though growth is expected to improve to 1.0% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026.
China’s growth forecast for 2024 has been upgraded to 4.8% from 4.5%, driven by increased exports. However, growth is expected to decline to 4.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, due to weak investment, low consumer confidence, and a struggling property sector.
In a speech today, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane noted that the central bank’s baseline projections reflect the market yield curve and anticipate “a set of rate cuts” in 2024 and 2025. He noted that with a clearly restrictive deposit facility rate of 3.75%, ECB could address potential “upside shocks to inflation” by adopting a “slower pace of rate reductions.” Conversely, maintaining a policy rate of 3.75% offers “more protection against downside shocks” compared to staying at 4.0%.
Lane emphasized the high level of uncertainty and the persistent price pressures reflected in domestic inflation, services inflation, and wage growth indicators. These factors necessitate a continued restrictive monetary stance, with decisions being made on a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting basis.
He reaffirmed ECB’s commitment to ensuring that inflation returns to the 2% medium-term target “in a timely manner” and stressed that policy rates will remain “sufficiently restrictive” for as long as necessary to achieve this goal.
Lane emphasized that ECB is “not pre-committing to a particular rate path” and will continue to assess the appropriate level and duration of restriction at each meeting.
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau highlighted today at a conference that month-to-month inflation data will be volatile due to base effects, particularly related to energy prices.
He cautioned that this “noise” in the data is not very meaningful, and the ECB remains “outlook driven” and will focus more closely on inflation forecasts.
Villeroy expressed confidence that, barring any external shocks, ECB will bring inflation back to its 2% target by next year, achieving this with a “soft rather than a hard landing.”
He reiterated the need for a gradual approach to future rate adjustments and emphasized that ECB has “significant leeway” to cut rates before monetary policy becomes restrictive.
UK payrolled employment fell slightly by -3k in May, following -85k monthly decline in April. Annual growth rate of payrolled employment slowed further from 0.7% yoy to 0.6% yoy. Annual growth in median pay was at 5.2% yoy, down sharply from April’s 6.8% yoy. Claimant count jumped 50.4k, versus expectation of 10.2k.
In the three months to April, unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, above expectation of 4.3%. Average earnings including bonus rose 5.9% yoy, above expectation of 5.7% yoy. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 6.0% yoy, matched expectations.
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Fed’s Mester urges caution despite positive inflation data
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed cautious optimism in an CNBC interview today, acknowledging the positive trend in the latest May CPI data. “It is welcome to see that inflation is moving back down again,” Mester stated.
However, she stressed the need for sustained improvement, adding, “I would want to see a few more months of good inflation data: inflation coming down, the short-run inflation expectations starting to move down.”
Mester emphasized that before considering rate cuts, it is crucial to observe consistent data across multiple indicators. “And then you need to start thinking about, ‘OK, this might be the right panoply of data, and portfolio of data — what’s going on in the labor market, what’s going on in inflation — to move rates down,'” she said.