BoJ Adachi: It’s difficult to envision a post-COVID-19 economy

    Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi said in a speech that it’s “difficult to envision a post-COVID-19 economy, at least for the time being”. The “process of making drastic changes to the socioeconomic structure can be painful”. It’s worth considering whether monetary might act as a “sort of safety net” for, or a “means of directly promoting” reforms.

    Also, he added, “if the pace of economic recovery is much slower than expected, it is not possible to completely rule out the risk that firms’ positive stance toward the outlook will be lost or that corporate bankruptcies and discontinuation of businesses will increase”. Thus, “it remains necessary in the COVID-19 era to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance while carefully monitoring economic developments.”

    Full speech here.

    Gold at 1900 key support zone as selloff intensifies

      Gold is under intensifying selling pressure this week. The prominent drivers behind this selloff are strengthening Dollar and, crucially, surging treasury yields. As a result, the yellow metal finds itself back at a crucial support zone around 1900 mark.

      Within this critical support region lies 38.2% retracement of 1614.60 (2022 low) to 2062.95 at 1891.68, as well as 55 W EMA (now at 1896.68). A clear break below this pivotal range would underscore the notion that whole rally originating from 1614.60 has completed at 2062.95 already, stopping short of 2020 high of 2074.84. This descent from 2062.95 could then be interpreted as a medium-term fall trend, as one of the falling legs inside the long term consolidation pattern from 2074.84.

      For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1947.21 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1884.83 support will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 2062.95 to 1892.76 from 1947.21 at 1842.03 in the near term. 100% projection at 1777.02 and below will be the medium term target.

      Drawing parallels with other markets, the extended decline in Gold, if realized, would be consistent with Dollar Index surging towards 108/110 zone.

      Australia Westpac consumer sentiment dropped to 90.4 in May, lowest since Aug 2020

        Australia Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index dropped from 95.8 to 90.4 in May. That’s the lowest level since August 2020. The reading was also -8.4% below the average seen in 2019. The -5.6% decline was the largest since the -6.9% fall in June 2016.

        Looking at some details, family finances for the next 12 months dropped from 105.1 to 93.3. Economic conditions for the next 12 months dropped from 95.9 to 90.4. Unemployment expectations rose from 99.2 to 109.6.

        Westpac said two “stunning developments are clearly unnerving consumers”. Firstly, headline inflation surged above 5% for the first time since 2007. Secondly, RBA raised interest rate for the first time since 2010.

        Regarding RBA policies, Westpac said “having now begun its tightening cycle the Board is almost certain to follow up the move in May with a further move in June”. It added, “the need to avoid an over-shoot later in the cycle is why, despite this disturbing tumble in Consumer Sentiment, we believe the prudent approach in June would be to lift rates by 40bps rather than the 25 bps that is currently favoured by most analysts.

        Full release here.

        Australia NAB business confidence rose to 2, inflationary pressures on the rise

          Australia’s NAB Business Confidence Index for July revealed an upward tick, moving from -1 in June to 2. However, Business Conditions saw a slight dip from 11 to 10. Delving into specific metrics, readings for trading conditions, profitability, and employment remained unchanged with the previous month, all settling at 16, 10, and 6 respectively.

          Notably, the month saw a pronounced rise in price and cost growth. Labour cost growth surged to 3.7% in quarterly equivalent terms, up from June’s 2.3%, and purchase cost growth escalated to 2.6%, a jump from the previous month’s 2.2%. Furthermore, final price growth climbed to 2%, doubling June’s 1%.

          Commenting on the findings, NAB Chief Economist, Alan Oster, remarked, “Business conditions in July remained resilient and have largely held steady at above-average levels over the past few months.”

          He added, “While business confidence rebounded to positive territory, overall confidence remains muted.”

          Oster further noted the inflationary pressures highlighted by the survey, noting, “Despite the Q2 CPI release indicating an improvement, the survey underscores that the upward pressure on inflation remains significant.”

          Full Australia NAB Business Confidence release here.

          Japan industrial production and retail sales contracted

            Economic data released from Japan showed strain in both the business and consumer sides of the economy. Industrial production dropped for the second month in a row, by -0.9% mom in November. Though, that came in better than expectation of -1.4% mom. Back in October, production dropped -4.5% mom, largest month-on-month decline since 2013. Both months’ data pointed to sharp contraction in factory output in Q4.

            Meanwhile, retail sales dropped -2.1% yoy in November too, worse than expectation of -1.7% yoy. Back in October, sales dropped sharply by -7.1% as sales tax hike took effect, worst since 2015. Sales had clearly not recovered yet and is poised to have a weak quarter too.

            Though, on the positive side, unemployment rate dropped to 2.2% in November, down from 2.4%, beat expectation of 2.4%. Tokyo CPI accelerated to 0.8% yoy in December, up from 0.6% yoy, beat expectation of 0.6% yoy.

            ECB to stand pat but pave way for Dec easing, a look at EUR/CAD

              ECB monetary policy decision is a major focus for today. Coronavirus situation is “very serious” as described by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Eurozone economy is destined to contract further in Q4 with tens of millions of people back in lockdowns. Heading reading is negative and would remain so for the near term. Yet, ECB is still unlikely to act “out of character” and deliver more monetary easing today. December remains the timing to do so as expected by most analysts. President Christine Lagarde, though, should clearly indicate that ECB is ready to use the PEPP as the main tool again in December, with extension and expansion.

              Suggested readings on ECB:

              Euro and Canadian Dollar are two of the weakest ones for the week. Euro is having a slight upper hand thanks the drag from oil prices. Technically, we’re still favoring the case that corrective pattern from 1.5978 has completed with three waves down to 1.5389. Break of 1.5738 resistance would bring retest of 1.5978/91 key resistance zone. Such development would help cushion part of Euro’s decline elsewhere. However, break of 1.5522 minor support would extend the correction with another falling leg, probably even through 1.5389. If happens, that would be an indication of a full across the board selloff in the common currency. We’ll see how it reacts after ECB.

              Gold accelerates down after breaking 2000, support expected at 1920

                Gold’s selloff accelerates today after taking out 2000 handle. Currently the decline from 2075.18 is seen as corrective the rise from 1670.66 only. Hence, while the pull back is deep we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1670.66 to 2075.18 at 1920.65 to contain downside to bring rebound. Nevertheless, Gold needs to climb back above 2000 handle to indicate stabilization. Sustained break of 1920.65 could pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1,825.18 before finding a bottom.

                RBNZ starts NSD 30B QE, financial taps turned on, country goes into self-isolation

                  RBNZ announced today to launch a NZD 30B Large Scale Asset Purchase (LASP) program of government bonds. The purchases will be “across a range of maturities” in the secondary market over the next 12 months. It aims to “provide further support to the economy, build confidence, and keep interest rates on government bonds low.” RBNZ will monitor the effectiveness and “make adjustments and additions” if needed.

                  Over the weekend, Governor Adrian Orr said in an article that “the evolving coronavirus outbreak has unsettled communities around the world, creating uncertainty about the future.” “New Zealand is no exception” but “we start in the best possible relative position”. The central bank already cut the Official Cash Rate form 1.00% to 0.25% and remains “committed to keep it there for at least the next year”. He added, “we are ready to act further, with more firepower in reserve to keep the financial taps turned on.”

                  Separately, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today that the country is “now preparing to go into self isolation”. All non-essential services, schools and offices will be shut over the next 48 hours. Supermarkets and pharmacies will remain open.

                  Eurozone retail sales dropped -0.3% mom, well below expectation

                    Eurozone retail sales dropped -0.3% mom in May, below expectation of 0.4% mom rise. Volume of retail trade decreased by -1.3% for automotive fuel, by -0.5% for food, drinks and tobacco, and by -0.1% for non-food products

                    EU28 retail sales dropped -0.4% mom. Trade volume decreased by -1.6% for automotive fuel, by -0.5% for food, drinks and tobacco, and by -0.3% for non-food products.

                    Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Croatia (-4.4%), Lithuania (-3.0%) and Sweden (-2.8%). The highest increases were observed in Portugal (1.5%), Spain (1.1%) and Belgium (1.0%).

                    Full release here.

                    ECB Panetta: Absent of common coronavirus action would dilute public support for EU

                      ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta criticized that Eurozone’s fiscal response to the coronavirus pandemic has been insufficient. He emphasized, “only if all economies act with the necessary force to contain the recession will the loss in output for the entire eurozone be minimized.”

                      He warned, “any perception that common action is absent in times of desperate crisis would dilute public support for the European Union — an effect that is already visible in countries on the frontline of the health crisis.” And, “the threat to the single market is clear: uneven fiscal support implies that a firm’s location, rather than its business model, will be the decisive factor in determining whether it survives this crisis.”

                      Japan’s CPI core dips to 2.3%, remains above BoJ’s target for 21st month

                        Japan’s CPI core, excluding fresh food, decelerated slightly in December, moving from 2.5% yoy to 2.3% yoy, aligning with market expectations. This slowdown brings core inflation rate to its lowest since June 2022, yet it notably remains above BoJ’s 2% target for the 21st consecutive month.

                        Overall headline CPI also showed a slowdown, decreasing from 2.8% yoy to 2.6% yoy. Additionally, CPI core-core, which excludes both food and energy, saw a modest decline, moving from 3.8% yoy to 3.7% yoy.

                        A notable aspect of CPI data is the stability of services prices, which rose by 2.3% yoy, maintaining the pace from the previous month. This rate marks the fastest increase in services prices in three decades when periods affected by sales tax hikes are excluded.

                        A significant factor contributing to the slowdown in inflation was the substantial drop in energy prices, which decreased by -11.6% yoy. This decline was driven by reductions in electricity and city gas prices, which fell by -20.5% yoy and -20.6% yoy, respectively, largely due to government subsidies.

                        Germany’s PMI composite falls to 47.1, continuation of recession

                          Germany PMI Manufacturing rose from 43.3 to 45.4 in January, an 11-month high. PMI Services fell from 49.3 to 47.6, a 5-month low. PMI Composite fell from 47.4 to 47.1, a 3-month low.

                          Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noted: “Services activity has not only declined for the fourth consecutive month but has also accelerated in its downturn. Manufacturing, remaining in recessionary territory for the 19th straight month, has displayed a somewhat softened downturn.”

                          De la Rubia further added, “Recognizing the inherent uncertainty at this early stage, our GDP Nowcast, which considers the PMI data, suggests a continuation of the recession into the current quarter, however.”

                           

                          Full Germany PMI release here.

                          USTR confirms trade deal with China, maintain 25% tariffs on $250B and 7.5% on $120B of Chinese goods

                            US Trade Representative confirmed in a formal statement that US and China have reached an “historic and enforceable” agreement on a Phase one trade deal. The deal requires “structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime in the areas of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange.” Also, China commits to make “substantial additional purchases of U.S. goods and services in the coming years.” A strong dispute resolution system is established with the deal that “ensures prompt and effective implementation and enforcement.”

                            Meanwhile, USTR said “The United States will be maintaining 25 percent tariffs on approximately $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with 7.5 percent tariffs on approximately $120 billion of Chinese imports.”

                            US President Donald Trump also tweeted: “We have agreed to a very large Phase One Deal with China. They have agreed to many structural changes and massive purchases of Agricultural Product, Energy, and Manufactured Goods, plus much more. The 25% Tariffs will remain as is, with 7 1/2% put on much of the remainder. The Penalty Tariffs set for December 15th will not be charged because of the fact that we made the deal. We will begin negotiations on the Phase Two Deal immediately, rather than waiting until after the 2020 Election. This is an amazing deal for all. Thank you!”

                            In a delayed press conference, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said the text of trade deal phase one was agreed with the US. And there will be removal of tariffs on Chinese goods in stages. Also, China will increase imports from US and other countries.

                            BoJ Kuroda to adopt a learning-by-doing approach on climate change

                              BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in a speech, “waiting until specific guidelines and ideas are fixed will only delay our response to the urgent global issue of climate change”. Instead, “it will be important to adopt a learning-by-doing approach: implement the crucial measures first, then make adjustments when necessary.”

                              “The Bank will follow appropriately the evolving nature of climate-related issues, exchange dialogue with domestic and foreign stakeholders, including through active participation in international discussions,” he said, “and will constantly review its measures and make adjustments where needed.

                              Full speech here.

                              Canada employment grew 150k in Jan, unemployment rate unchanged at 5%

                                Canada employment grew strongly by 150k, or 0.8% mom, in January, well above expectation of 15k. Full-time work increased 121k.

                                Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%, matched expectations, just shy of the record-low 4.9% in June and July last year. Participation rate rose 0.3% to 65.7%.

                                Total hours worked rose 0.8% mom, 5.6% yoy. Average hourly wages rose 4.5% yoy.

                                Full release here.

                                BoJ Kuroda: Removing bond-buying guidance clarified our intention to buy government bonds aggressively

                                  BoJ decided today to purchase JGBs to and T-bills “without setting an upper-limit” to keep 10-year JGB yields at around zero percent. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in the post meeting conference, “by removing the bond-buying guidance, we clarified our intention to buy government bonds aggressively without setting a limit.”

                                  “We will buy as many government bonds as necessary under YCC (yield curve control),” he said. “We’re buying government bonds as part of our monetary policy steps. But our measures and fiscal stimulus will also have a mutually reinforcing impact.” But he emphasized “we aren’t monetizing government debt.”

                                  On future policy changes, he emphasized “we won’t hesitate to take additional monetary easing steps if needed. As for future policy options, we can expand the size of our asset buying or market operations, as well as cut interest rates. We will choose the most appropriate option at the time. We won’t rule out interest rate cuts as a policy option.”

                                  On inflation, he said “I don’t think there’s a risk Japan will revert to deflation. But short-term inflation expectations are falling quite a bit, and those for the long term are also falling somewhat. This needs to be watched carefully.”

                                  BoJ: Desirable to confirm and examine the effects of adopted easing measures for now

                                    In the summary of opinions of BoJ’s June 15-16 meeting, it’s noted that the economy is “likely to remain in a severe situation for the time being” due to coronavirus pandemic. But the economy “recently appears to have bottomed out. But the “pace of economic recovery will likely be slow”. regarding prices, it’s “unlikely at present that the inflation rate will approach 2 percent with momentum in the foreseeable future”.

                                    It’s also noted that the current three monetary easing measures, the financing program, provision of yen and foreign currency funds, and asset purchases, are “flexible” and “highly adaptable” to various developments. The measures adopted since March “have been exerting their intended effects”. It’s “desirable to carefully confirm and examine their effects for the time being”.

                                    Full summary of opinions here.

                                    UK CBI order book balance rose to -46, tentative signs of gradual recovery on the horizon

                                      UK CBI monthly order book balance rose to -46 in July, up from -58. While that was the best reading since March, it missed expectation of -35. Output volumes dropped further to -59, down from -57, worst on record since 1975.

                                      Rain Newton-Smith, CBI Chief Economist, said: “There are tentative signs of gradual recovery on the horizon, with firms expecting output and orders to begin to pick up in the next three months. But demand still remains deeply depressed.”

                                      Tom Crotty, Group Director at INEOS and Chair of the CBI Manufacturing Council, said: “The latest survey showcases the significant challenges that manufacturers have faced over the last three months due to the COVID-19 crisis. However, these results may prove to be a low point in the crisis, with manufacturers expecting output to grow for the first time since the pandemic hit.”

                                      UK lawmakers overcome first hurdle to stop no-deal Brexit

                                        In a motion put forward by oppositions and Conservative rebels to take control of parliamentary schedules, the UK government was defeated by 328 to 301 votes. On Wednesday, those lawmakers will proceed to pass a law to force Prime Minister Boris Johnson to seek another Brexit delay, from October 31 to January 31, to stop no-deal Brexit.

                                        After the vote, Johnson warned, “I don’t want an election, but if MPs vote tomorrow to stop negotiations and compel another pointless delay to Brexit, potentially for years, then that would be the only way to resolve this.” He reiterated ” if I am Prime Minister, I will go to Brussels, I will go for a deal and get a deal but if they won’t do a deal we will leave anyway on 31 October.”

                                        It’s reported that all 21 Conservative rebels could face expulsion from the party as a result of the vote. The group include Nicholas Soames, the grandson of Britain’s World War Two leader Winston Churchill, and two former finance ministers – Philip Hammond and Kenneth Clarke.

                                        Separately, Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe insisted that “a very significant political rationale” is needed for any further Brexit delay. He told national broadcaster RTE, “the European Council and the European Commission have said that were another extension to be looked for, there would have to be a very significant political rationale for it and it is yet to be seen what that rationale would be.”

                                        GBP rally held back by lack of aknowledgement of Brexit negotiation progress by BoE

                                          More on BoE, apart from Saunders and McCafferty, there seems to be nothing worth noting in today’s announcement. Overall tone of the statement remained the same as February’s. Brexit development was just briefly mentioned. The essential part regarding Brexit was totally unchanged.

                                          BoE maintained that the projected 1.75% GDP growth would be more than offset 1.5% supply growth. And small margin of excess demand was projected to emerge by early 2020. And that would push up domestic costs. Thus, “inflation remained above the 2% target in the second and third years of the MPC’s central projection.”

                                          BoE added that “ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period will be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to its target at a more conventional horizon.” This suggests that it’s more confident regarding tightening ahead. But BoE reiterated cautious that “any future increases in Bank Rate are likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent.

                                          Overall, the lack of acknowledge of Brexit negotiation progress, and the cautious tone of the statement is holding back Sterling bulls.