Fed Evans: We need to continue on the path we’ve been indicating

    Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday, “inflation is just much too high, and so we need to continue on the path that we’ve been indicating — at least that. And I’m hopeful that that will be enough.”

    “Continued increases in the funds rate along the lines of our September SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) could lead to a economic outlook where we’re going to see below-trend growth — we’ll be challenged in that regard — we’ll see the unemployment rate go up, but I think that it won’t take off,” Evans said.

    “I think if we have to increase the path of the funds rate much more, though, it really does begin to weigh on the economy. I worry that it’s sort of a nonlinear kind of event.”

    Fed Bullard: Goal is to raise rates to some meaningfully restrictive level

      St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday that Fed’s goal is to front-load aggressive rate hikes to move to “some meaningfully restrictive level” that would push inflation down.

      For November meeting, Bullard said the results “has been more or less priced in to markets” for a 75 basis-point hike, even though he’d prefer to decide at the meting. As for December, didn’t want to “prejudge”.

      Then, in 2023, “I think we’ll be closer to the point where we can run what I would call ordinary monetary policy,” he said. “Now you’re at the right level of the policy rate, you’re putting downward pressure on inflation, but you can adjust as the data come in in 2023.”

      Fed Kashkari: I can’t see how I would recommend pausing interest rate increases

        Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday that while headline inflation may have peaked, there is no evidence that core inflation has stopped climbing. So, “I can’t see how I would recommend pausing interest rate increases,” he added.

        “My best guess right now is yes, do I think inflation is going to level out over the next few months, the services, the core inflation, and then that would position us some time next year to potentially pause,” he added.

        “I’ve seen very little evidence in my region that the labor market is softening,” Kashkari said. “The No. 1 issue I hear from businesses small and large is that they’re struggling to find workers, how they’re having to pay more wages to keep their employees and to attract employees.”

        Canada CPI ticked down to 6.9% yoy in Sep, food inflation rose to 11.4% yoy

          Canada CPI slowed from 7.0% yoy to 6.9% yoy in September, slightly above expectation of 6.8% yoy. Food prices inflation rose to 11.4% yoy, the fastest rate since 1981’s 11.9% yoy. Also, prices for food purchases from stores have been increasing at a faster rate than all-items CPI for 10 consecutive months. Excluding food and energy, CPI accelerated from 5.3% yoy to 5.4% yoy.

          CPI median dipped from 4.8% yoy to 4.7% yoy, versus expectation of 4.8% yoy. CPI trimmed was unchanged at 5.2% yoy, above expectation of of 5.1% yoy. CPI common accelerated from 5.7% yoy to 6.0% yoy, above expectation of 5.6% yoy.

          Full release here.

          Eurozone CPI finalized at 9.9% yoy in Sep, core at 4.8% yoy

            Eurozone CPI was finalized at 9.9% yoy in September, up from August’s 9.1% yoy, but revised down from flash reading of 10.0% yoy. CPI core (all items excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) was finalized at 4.8% yoy, up from August’s 4.3% yoy

            The highest contribution to the annual Eurozone inflation rate came from energy (+4.19%), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.47%), services (+1.80%) and non-energy industrial goods (+1.47%).

            EU CPI was finalized at 10.9% yoy, up from August’s 10.1% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in France (6.2%), Malta (7.4%) and Finland (8.4%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia (24.1%), Lithuania (22.5%) and Latvia (22.0%). Compared with August, annual inflation fell in six Member States, remained stable in one and rose in twenty.

            Full release here.

            UK CPI rose to 10.1% yoy in Sep, Food prices up 14.6% yoy

              UK CPI rose 0.5% mom in September, above expectation of 0.4% mom. In the 12 months to September, CPI accelerated from 9.9% yoy to 10.1% yoy, above expectation of 10.0% yoy. That’s the highest level since around 1982 based on modelled estimates. CPI core also rose from 6.3% yoy to 6.5% yoy, above expectation of 6.4% yoy.

              ONS said: “Rising food prices made the largest upward contribution to the change in both the CPIH and CPI annual inflation rates between August and September 2022. The continued fall in the price of motor fuels made the largest, partially offsetting, downward contribution to the change in the rates.”

              Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices accelerated from 13.1% yoy to 14.6% yoy. After 14 consecutive months of acceleration, current rate is estimated to be the highest since 1980.

              Also released, RPI came in at 0.7% mom, 12.6% yoy versus expectation of 0.5% mom, 12.4% yoy. PPI input was at 0.4% mom, 20.0% yoy. PPI output was at 0.2% mom, 15.9% yoy. PPI output core was at 0.7% mom, 14.0% yoy.

              Full CPI release here.

              Australia Westpac leading index points to material loss in momentum heading into 2023

                Australia Westpac leading index six-month annualized growth rate declined from -0.33% to -1.15% in September. It’s now at the weakest level since the pandemic first hit in 2020, and prior to that, since early 2016. The index continued to point to a “material loss in momentum to a below-trend growth pace heading into 2023.”

                Westpac added that the signal in broadly in line with forecast that economic growth will slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 1.0% in 2023, with sharp slowdown in consumer spending. It said, “that slowdown is likely to intensify through 2023 as rising interest rates and a softening labour market take their toll.”

                On RBA policy, Westpac pointed to minutes of October meeting, which noted, “drawing out policy adjustments would also help to keep public attention focused for a longer period on the Board’s resolve to return inflation to target.” The thinking was in line with Westpac’s forecast that RBA will have a series of 25bps rate hikes in the future months of November, December, February, and March.

                Full release here.

                BoJ Kuroda: Recent depreciation of Yen was sharp and one-sided

                  BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told a parliamentary committee that recent depreciation of Yen was sharp and one-sided “This kind of yen weakening makes it difficult for companies to set their business plans and raises uncertainties in their outlook,” he said. “This is negative for our economy and not desirable.”

                  Separately, board member Seiji Adachi said, “When looking at the global financial and economic environment surrounding Japan, downside risks are building up rapidly… When downside risks are so high, we should be cautious of shifting toward monetary tightening.”

                  Fed Kashkari: I don’t see how we can stop if underlying inflation doesn’t flatten out

                    Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday, “I’ve said publicly that I could easily see us getting into the mid-4%s early next year.”

                    “But if we don’t see progress in underlying inflation or core inflation, I don’t see why I would advocate stopping at 4.5%, or 4.75% or something like that,” he added. “We need to see actual progress in core inflation and services inflation and we are not seeing it yet.”

                    “That number that I offered is predicated on a flattening out of that underlying inflation,” Kashkari said. “If that doesn’t happen, then I don’t see how we can stop.”

                    Japan intervenes as USD/JPY breaks149

                      USD/JPY is knocked down heavily after edging higher to 149.28. At the time of writing, it’s trading slightly below 149. Apparently, the unexpected excessive volatility is due to intervention by Japan. For now, it’s unsure if 149 is the level Japan would defend, or is it going to be 150. In either case, as USD/JPY looks rather resilient, it’s not a wise choice to sell it to ride on the intervention. It’s an avoid for the moment.

                      Earlier today, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “We cannot tolerate excessive currency moves driven by speculators. We are closely watching currency moves with a sense of urgency.”

                      “Generally speaking, there are times when we intervene by making announcements and some other times when we do without it,” Suzuki also noted.

                      German ZEW situation tumbled sharply, significantly worse

                        Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment rose slightly from -61.9 to -59.2 in October, above expectation of -66.0. Current Situation Index dropped sharply from -60.5 to -72.2, below expectation of -69.0.

                        Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment improved slightly from -60.7 to -59.7, above expectation of -60.6. Current situation dropped very sharply by -11.7 pts to -70.6. Inflation expectations for Eurozone declined from -23.7 to -35.8.

                        “The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment rises slightly in October. However, the current economic situation is once again assessed as significantly worse than in the previous month. The probability that real gross domestic product will decline in the course of the next six months has also increased considerably. Overall, the economic outlook has deteriorated again,” said ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach on current expectations.

                        Full release here.

                        RBA Bullock: We meet more frequently than most of our peers

                          RBA Deputy Governor Michele  Bullock acknowledged in a speech that some commentators contracted the 24bps hike in October with those of other central banks that have been hiking by larger increments.

                          “In part, this reflects our particular economic circumstances,” she said. “But it is also relevant that the Board meets more frequently than most of our peer central banks.”

                          RBA is “making monetary policy decisions 11 times a year so it is discussing regularly the evidence on the economy and has more flexibility on the size and timing of rate increases… The incremental change in the policy rate at recent meetings has been smaller than some other major central banks. However, our policy rate trajectory has been as steep, or steeper, than other central banks”.

                          Both Fed and ECB hold monetary policy meetings 8 times a year.

                          Full speech here.

                          RBA minutes: Case for a smaller 25bps hike stronger

                            Minutes of RBA October 4 meeting revealed that members “carefully considered two options” of 50bps and 25bps rate hike. The arguments for a 25bps hike “rested on the risks to global and domestic growth, and the potential for inflation to subside quickly”.

                            Wages growth had “not reached levels that would be inconsistent with the inflation target”. External inflation pressures “might ease quickly given that the global outlook had deteriorated”. There was also an argument to slow for a time to “assess the effects of the significant increases in interest rates to date”.

                            RBA said the arguments for both options were “finely balanced”, with the case of 25bps hike stronger. “A smaller increase than that agreed at preceding meetings was warranted given that the cash rate had been increased substantially in a short period of time and the full effect of that increase lay ahead.”

                            At the meeting, RBA raised the cash rate target by 25bps to 2.60%.

                            Full minutes here.

                            New Zealand CPI up 2.2% qoq in Q3, annual rate at 7.7% yoy

                              New Zealand CPI rose 2.2% qoq in Q3, well above expectation of 1.6% qoq. Annual inflation slowed from 7.3% yoy to 7.2% yoy, but beat expectation of 6.6% yoy.

                              The quarterly rise in prices was mainly influenced by the food group and the housing and household utilities group. Vegetable prices rose 24% during the quarter, largest since the the series began in 1999.

                              The main driver for annual inflation was housing and household utilities due to rising prices for construction, rentals for housing, and local authority rates.

                              Full release here.

                              Japan Suzuki: We cannot tolerate excessive currency moves driven by speculators

                                Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters today, “We cannot tolerate excessive currency moves driven by speculators. We are closely watching currency moves with a sense of urgency.”

                                Suzuki later told the parliament that the government is ready to take actions “decisively” and “we have intervened in the currency markets (last month)”.

                                “Generally speaking, there are times when we intervene by making announcements and some other times when we do without it,” Suzuki said.

                                BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament, “Recent sharp yen fall, coupled with raw material price rise, driving up Japan’s prices”. ”Consumer inflation likely to accelerate toward year-end before sliding below 2% next fiscal year,” he added.

                                US Empire State manufacturing dropped to -9.1 in Oct

                                  US Empire State Manufacturing index dropped sharply from 1.5 to -9.1 in October. 23% of respondents reported that conditions had improved while 32% said worsened. After falling significantly over the prior three months, the prices paid index rose nine points to 48.6. The prices received index held steady at 22.9.

                                  Index for future conditions dropped from 8.2 to -1.8. indicating that firms do not expect conditions to improve over the next six months.

                                  Full release here.

                                  NZ BNZ services dropped to 55.8 in Sep

                                    New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index dropped from 58.6 to 55.8 in September. Looking at some details, activity/sales dropped from 67.5 to 59.2. Employment ticked down from 50.7 to 50.5. New orders/business dropped from 66.6 to 62.9. Stocks/inventories dropped from 59.6 to 54.9. Supplier deliveries was unchanged at 49.7.

                                    BNZ Senior Economist Craig Ebert said that “the composite PCI held together at 54.4 in free-weighted terms, while the GDP weighted composite came in at 55.4, from 58.2 in August. These marry with our view that Q3 GDP increased about 1.0%”.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Japan Suzuki: Will take decisive action on excessive volatility

                                      There is no clear sign of intervention by Japan so far, as USD/JPY is trading in tight range close to 32-yr high. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki just said, “if we see excessive volatility caused by speculative moves, we will take decisive action. There is no change in this view at all.”

                                      Separately, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in a parliamentary session, Japan’s economy is in the midst of recovery from COVID-19. Higher commodity prices, on the back of the situation in Ukraine, have been leading to an outflow of income from Japan to overseas, adding downward pressure on the economy.”

                                      “For now, we think it appropriate to continue with monetary easing because it’s necessary to support the economy and achieve our inflation target in a sustainable and stable fashion accompanied by wage growth,” he added.

                                      BoE Bailey: Inflationary pressures will require a stronger response

                                        BoE Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that a larger rate hike could be delivered at the upcoming meeting in November. He said, “we will not hesitate to raise interest rates to meet the inflation target… And, as things stand today, my best guess is that inflationary pressures will require a stronger response than we perhaps thought in August.”

                                        Regarding new Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, he said, “I can tell you that there was a very clear and immediate meeting of minds between us about the importance of fiscal sustainability and the importance of taking measures to do that.”

                                        US retail sales growth flat in Sep, ex-auto sales up 0.1% mom

                                          US retail sales growth was flat at 0.0% mom in September, at USD 684.0B. Ex-auto sales rose 0.1% mom, better than expectation of -0.1% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.1% mom. Ex-auto and gasoline sales rose 0.3% mom.

                                          Total sales for July through September period were up 9.2% from the same period a year ago.

                                          Full release here.