Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 58.7 in Jan, weathering Omicron better than prior waves

    Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 58.7 in January, up from December’s 58.0. Markit said there were faster expansion in output and new orders. Employment growth improved to five-month high. Also, supplier performance had the least marked deterioration for a year.

    Looking at some member states, Germany PMI manufacturing improved to 59.8, five month high. But Italy dropped to 11-month low at 58.3. France also dropped to 3-month low at 55.5. Overall readings were still strong with Austria at 61.5, the Netherlands at 60.1, Ireland at 59.4, Greece at 57.9 and Spain at 56.2.

    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “Eurozone manufacturers appear to be weathering the Omicron storm better than prior COVID-19 waves so far, with firms reporting the largest production and order book improvements for four months in January. Prospects have also brightened, with a further easing in the number of supply chain delays playing a key role in prompting producers to revise up their expectations for growth in the coming year to the highest since last June…

    “Escalating tensions surrounding Ukraine, the energy price crisis and prospect of global central bank policy tightening meanwhile create additional headwinds to the outlook, which suggest that – although the global supply crunch may be easing – demand conditions may be less supportive to manufacturers in coming months.”

    Full release here.

    RBA stops QE purchases, to be patient on interest rate

      RBA keeps cash rate target unchanged at 0.10% today. It’s reiterated that RBA “will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range”. And, it is “too early to conclude that it is sustainably within the target band”. Thus, “the Board is prepared to be patient as it monitors how the various factors affecting inflation in Australia evolve.

      RBA also decided to stop the asset purchase program after February 10. The issue of reinvestment of the proceeds of future bond maturities will be considered at the meeting in May.

      As for the economy, RBA said Omicron “has not derailed” recovery. Central forecast if for GDP to grow around 4.25% over 2022 and 2% over 2.023. Unemployment rate is projected to fall below 4% later in the year, and to be around 3.75% at the end of 2023. Underlying inflation is is expected to increase further in coming quarters to around 3.25%, and decline to around 2.75% over 2023.

      Full statement here.

      Australia retail sales dropped -4.4% mom in Dec, but turnover remains strong

        Australia retail sales dropped -4.4% mom in December, much worse than expectation of -1.9% mom. That’s also the largest monthly decline since April 2020.

        “Despite this month’s fall, retail turnover remains strong, up 4.8 per cent on December 2020, with strong consumer spending continuing post the Delta Outbreak,” Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics, said.

        Full release here.

        Australia AiG manufacturing dropped to 48.4, modest contraction

          Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped sharply by -6.4 pts to 48.4 in January. Production dropped -0.6 to 51.9. Employment dropped -4.6 to 45.4. New orders dropped -8.0 to 51.3. Supplier deliveries dropped -15.6 to 37.8. Exports dropped -9.5 to 45.1. Input prices rose 4.0 to 82.3. Selling prices dropped -3.3 to 64.8. Wages rose 1.1 to 63.5.

          Innes Willox, Chief Executive of Ai Group said: “Australia’s manufacturers reported a modest contraction in performance over December and January as businesses reported further disruptions to supply chains and as staff availability emerged as a major constraint on many businesses. Cost pressures were keenly felt with input prices continuing to rise and the selling prices index indicating only a partial recovery of these costs in the market.”

          Full release here.

          Fed Barkin: I don’t hear much resistance to rate hikes

            Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said yesterday, “as I talk to participants in the economy, what I hear is they actually want us to do something now about inflation. They’d like us to get back to at least a normal interest-rate posture and not be simulating more demand on top of normal levels. So, I don’t hear much resistance to that.”

            “I’d like us to be better positioned,” Barkin said. “Better positioned is somewhere closer to neutral, certainly, than we are now and I think the pace of that just depends on the pace of inflation.”

            Fed Bostic: 50bps hike in March not my preferred action

              Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said, 50bps hike in March was “not my preferred policy action.” He added, “I had three rate increases in mind. March is looking like the right time” to get that started. From there, however, “we are not on any set progression.”

              “We are going to need to be thinking very carefully about how things are going, how the economy responds to our first moves,” Bostic said. “We are not set on any particular trajectory. The data will tell us what is happening.”

              Fed Daly: We definitely are poised for a March increase

                San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said “we definitely are poised for a March increase.” But she added, “after that, I want to see what the data brings us … let’s get through Omicron, let’s look at this and let’s see.”

                “If the economy progresses like I see it progressing, then it is clear that it can stand on its own two feet, that we do not need to be providing the same level of extraordinary … accommodation that we provided during the pandemic and have provided for the last two years,” Daly said.

                Fed George: Appropriate to move earlier on the balance sheet

                  Kansas City Fed President Esther George said Fed’s policy normalization approach could be more aggressive on balance sheet reduction, rather than faster rate hikes.

                  “What we do on the balance sheet is likely to affect the path of policy rates and vice versa,” George said during an event “For example, if we took more aggressive action on lowering, pulling down that balance sheet, it might allow for fewer interest rate increases.”

                  He added that raising short-term interest rate while maintaining a large balance sheet “could flatten the yield curve”, and lead to “reach-for-yield behavior from long-duration investors.”

                  “All in all, it could be appropriate to move earlier on the balance sheet relative to the last tightening cycle,” she said.

                  AUD/NZD resumes rally as RBA awaited, some previews

                    AUD/NZD rises sharply today as markets await RBA rate decision in the upcoming Asian session. Given the surprise drop in unemployment and strong inflation data, RBA is likely to just wrap up the QE program, rather than winding it down to end in May. That would also give the central bank some flexibility to raise interest rate to combat inflation. The question is how RBA would shape market expectation on the timing of the rate hike, or leave it to the Statement on Monetary Policy to be released later in the week. There is prospect of more upside in Aussie in crosses in RBA delivers something more hawkish than expected.

                    AUD/NZD’s is now extending the whole rise from 1.0278. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.0278 to 1.0610 from 1.0314 at 1.0851. A bullish scenario is that corrective fall from 1.1042 has completed with three waves at 1.0278 and rise from 0.9992 is ready to resume. The reaction to 1.0944 resistance will reveal if it’s the case. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.0654 support holds, in case of retreat.

                    Suggested readings on RBA:

                     

                    Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q4, EU up 0.4% qoq

                      Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q4, slightly below expectation of 0.4% qoq. EU GDP grew 0.4% qoq. The 2021 annual growth was at 5.2% based on first estimation for both Eurozone and EU.

                      Among the EU Member States for which data are available, Spain (+2.0%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Portugal (+1.6%) and Sweden (+1.4%). Declines were recorded in Austria (-2.2%), Germany (-0.7%) and in Latvia (-0.1%). The year on year growth rates were positive for all countries.

                      Full release here.

                      China Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped to 49.1, straining under the triple pressures

                        China Caixin PMI Manufacturing dropped from 50.9 to 49.1 in January. That’s the worst reading in 23 months. Also, the index slumped into negative territory for the fourth time since February 2020.

                        Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “From December to January, the resurgence of Covid-19 in several regions including Xi’an and Beijing forced local governments to tighten epidemic control measures, which restricted production, transportation and sales of manufactured goods. It became more evident that China’s economy is straining under the triple pressures of contracting demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations.”

                        Full release here.

                        Japan industrial production dropped -1.0% mom in Dec, expected to rebound in Jan and Feb

                          Japan industrial production dropped -1.0% mom in December, worse than expectation of -0.8% mom. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expected output to grow 5.2% in January and 2.2% in February.

                          Retail sales grew 1.4% yoy in December, below expectation of 2.7% yoy. That’s nonetheless the third straight month of increase for sales, lifted by demand for general merchandise and food and beverages.

                          Fed Bostic comfortable with 50bps or if data support

                            Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in an FT interview that “every option is on the table” for every FOMC meeting. “If the data say that things have evolved in a way that a 50 basis point move is required or be appropriate, then I’m going to lean into that . . . If moving in successive meetings makes sense, I’ll be comfortable with that,” he said.

                            “The reduction of accommodation should translate into tighter financial markets,” Bostic said. “The developments that we’ve seen on that front are comforting in the sense that markets are still functioning the way they’re supposed to, and they are responding to conditions in ways that are rational and appropriate.” He also supports starting the runoff of the USD 9T balance sheet “as quickly as” possible without impairing market functioning.

                            “Our policy path is not a constriction path. It’s a less accommodative path,” he said. “If we do the three [rate hikes] that I have in mind, that’ll still leave our policy in a very accommodative space. “I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of constraint on growth as we remove these emergency actions.”

                            US PCE price index rose to 5.8% yoy, core PCE rose to 4.9% yoy

                              US personal income rose 0.3% mom, or USD 70.7B in December, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Spending dropped -0.6% mom, or USD -95.2B, matched expectations.

                              PCE price index accelerated slightly from 5.7% yoy to 5.8% yoy, below expectation of 6.1% yoy. Core PCE price index jumped from 4.7% yoy to 4.9% yoy, above expectation of 4.8% yoy.

                              Full release here.

                              Eurozone economic sentiment indicator dropped to 112.7, EU down to 111.6

                                Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 113.8 to 112.7 in January. Industry confidence dropped from 14.6 to 13.9. Services confidence dropped from 10.9 to 9.1. Consumer confidence dropped from -8.4 to -8.5. Retail trade confidence rose from 1.1 to 3.8. Construction confidence dropped from 10.1 to 8.1. Employment Expectations Indicator dropped from 113.5 to 113.3.

                                EU ESI dropped from 113.0 to 111.6. EEI dropped from 113.6 to 113.1. Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI rose in Germany (+0.8) and Spain (+0.6) while it worsened in Italy (-6.1), Poland (-4.2), France (-2.8) and the Netherlands (-1.3).

                                Full release here.

                                Germany GDP contracted -0.7% qoq in Q4, still -1.5% lower than pre-pandemic level

                                  Germany GDP dropped -0.7% qoq in Q4, worse than expectation of -0.2% qoq. GDP was still -1.5% lower than pre-pandemic level in Q4, 2021. For whole of 2021, GDP grew 2.8%.

                                  Destatis said, “after economic output grew again in the summer despite increasing supply and material bottlenecks, the recovery of the German economy was halted by the fourth corona wave and renewed tightening of corona protection measures at the end of the year.”

                                  “Private consumption in particular decreased in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the previous quarter, while government consumer spending increased. Construction investments fell compared to the third quarter of 2021.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  Swiss KOF economic barometer rose to 107.8, various subgroups developing unevenly

                                    Swiss KOF Economic Barometer rose from 107.2 to 107.8 in January, above expectation of 106.0. KOF said the “various subgroups of the barometer are developing unevenly.”

                                    Outlook has improved for consumer spending and for financial and insurance service providers. The outlook also tends to brighten for the accommodation and food service activities. However, in the goods production sector (manufacturing and construction), indicators for almost all sub-​aspects of business activity are weakening, especially for profit development, production activity and capacity utilisation.

                                    Full release here.

                                    France GDP grew 0.7% in Q4, up 7% in 2021

                                      France GDP grew 0.7% qoq in Q4, above expectation of 0.5% qoq. On average over 2021, GDP increased by 7.0% after -8.0% in 2020. GDP was 0.9% above pre-pandemic level in Q4 2019. But the average level of GDP in 2021 was still -1.6% below its average level in 2019.

                                      Looking at some details, final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed to +0.5 points. In particular, the growth rate of household consumption expenditure (+0.4%) was similar to that of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, +0.5%). Contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was slightly negative this quarter at -0.2 points. contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was positive this quarter (+0.4%).

                                      Full release here.

                                      Bitcoin trading sideway, risk still on the downside

                                        Bitcoin stabilized after hitting 33000 and turned sideway. But risk is still staying heavily on the downside with 39636 support turned resistance intact. Current down trend from 68986 could extend with another falling leg, towards 29261 support, which is close to 30k psychological level too. We’d look for bottoming signal around there.

                                        Meanwhile, on the upside, firm break of 39639 will argue that bitcoin has bottomed earlier than expected and bring rebound back towards 55 day EMA (now at 44839). Failure to defend 30k handle will indicate that the larger down trend is still in force for 100% projection of 68986 to 41908 from 52101 at 25023.

                                        Gold breaks 1800, more downside ahead with Silver

                                          Gold is now back below 1800 handle as fall from 1853.70 extends. The development further affirms the case that rebound from 1752.32 has completed with three waves up to 1853.70. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1821.93 minor resistance holds. Current fall from 1853.70 is see as part of the pattern from 1877.05, which is a down leg inside the medium term range pattern from 1676.65. Break of 1782.48 support will add further credence to this case, and would set the stage for deeper decline through 1752.32 low to 100% projection of 1877.05 to 1752.32 from 1853.70 at 1728.97 eventually.

                                           

                                          Silver’s development is also inline with gold. Rebound from 21.39 should have completed with three waves up to 84.69. Deeper decline is expected as long as 23.55 minor resistance holds, to 21.93 support first. Such fall from 24.69 is seen as a leg inside the medium term falling wedge pattern from 30.07. Break of 24.69 would send silver through 21.39 low, to 50% retracement of 11.67 to 30.7 at 20.87 next.