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US initial jobless claims dropped to 198k, lowest since 1969

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    ActionForex.com
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    US initial jobless claims dropped -8k to 198k in the week ending December 25, better than expectation of 205k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -7k to 199k, lowest since October 25, 1969.

    Continuing claims dropped -140k to 1716k in the week ending December 18, lowest since March 7, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -60k to 1850k, lowest since March 14, 2020.

    Full release here.

    Swiss KOF dropped to 107 in Dec, economy to develop positively at 2022 start

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      ActionForex.com
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      Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped slightly from 107.5 to 107.0 in December. “The barometer remains above its long-​term average,” KOF said. “The Swiss economy should thus continue to develop positively at the beginning of 2022, if the economic activity is not impaired by the renewed spread of the virus.”

      “This month, the barometer is mostly influenced by indicators covering private consumption, which are slightly negative. Another slight negative contribution is sent by bundles of indicators from the finance and insurance sector. In contrast, indicators for foreign demand are contributing positively.”

      Full release here.

       

      ECB Knot and Visco doubt if inflation falls below 2% after 2022

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        ActionForex.com
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        ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said he had a “different view” to ECB’s projection that inflation will fall back to 1.8% after 2022. He said, “I think the chance we remain stuck above 2% is just as big. Not far above 2%, but still.”

        Separately, another governing council member Ignazio Visco said, “(Inflation) forecasts below 2% in 2023-24 are of course subject to both downside and upside risks.”

        10-year yield setting stage for up trend resumption?

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          ActionForex.com
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          US 10-year yield jumped notably and closed up 0.062 at 1.543. With a strong break above 55 day EMA, it’s starting to suggest that consolidation pattern from 1.765 has completed with three waves to 1.343 already. TNX has also drew solid support from 55 week EMA again, keeping medium term bullishness well in place.

          The focus could quickly be on 1.693 resistance when we come back from new year holiday. Firm break there should push TNX through 1.765 resistance to resume the up trend from 0.398. If this happens, we could easily see 10-year yield back at 2% level and above.

          DOW notched new record, 37129 projection level next

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            ActionForex.com
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            DOW finally caught up the S&P 500 and notched a new record close at 36488.63 overnight. Market sentiments remained positive despite record surge in daily Omicron cases. Investors are relieved by more and more evidence that Omicron is less severe than Delta.

            From a medium term point of view, DOW is holding well above 55 week EMA, maintaining a healthy up trend. Weekly MACD also suggest that it might also be picking up momentum again. Nevertheless, a important test lies ahead at 100% projection of 18213.65 to 29199.35 from 26143.77 at 37129.47. Sustained break of 37129.47 could easily trigger more upside acceleration in Q1 towards 138.2% projection at 41326.00.

            US goods trade deficit widened to USD 97.8B in Nov

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              ActionForex.com
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              US goods exports dropped USD -3.3B to USD 154.7B in November. Goods imports rose USD 11.3B to USD 252.4B. Goods trade deficit came in at USD -97.8B, worse than expectation of USD -89.0B, comparing to November’s USD -83.2B.

              Wholesale inventories rose 1.2% mom to USD 769.9B. Retail inventories rose 2.0% mom to USD 616.9B.

              Full release here.

              Gold and Silver edged higher in weak momentum

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                ActionForex.com
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                Both Gold and Silver edged higher yesterday but quickly lost momentum and retreated. At this point, Gold’s rebound from 1752.32 should still extend higher as long as 1784.78 support holds. We’re seeing fall form 1877.05 as complete in 1752.43. Above 1820.02 will target 61.8% retracement of 1877.05 to 1752.32 at 1829.40 first. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 1877.05 resistance.

                Silver’s picture is similar. Fall from 25.39 should have completed at 21.39 already. Rise from 21.39 is in favor to extend higher as long as 22.17 support holds. Break of 23.42 will target 61.8% retracement of 25.39 to 21.39 at 23.86 first. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 25.39 resistance.

                CHF/JPY to break through 125.48 to resume up trend

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                  ActionForex.com
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                  Selloff in Yen gathers momentum this week on the back of risk-on sentiment. Even CHF/JPY manages to accelerate to as high as 125.37. We’re seeing the correction from 125.48 has completed at 122.10 after drawing support from 55 day EMA. Immediate focus is now on this 125.48 resistance. Firm break there will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 117.51 to 125.48 from 122.10 at 127.02.

                  The bigger question is whether there would be more upside acceleration after breaking through 125.48. The key channel is the long term channel resistance. Sustained break there could easily send CHF/JPY to 100% projection at 130.07. And that would be a strong signal of Yen weakness elsewhere. Nevertheless, rejection by the channel resistance will just keep the selling in Yen steady.

                  Bitcoin could be heading back to 45560 support

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
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                    We’re viewing Bitcoin’s price actions from 41908 spike low as a corrective pattern. Even in case of another rise, strong resistance should be see from 53299 support turned resistance to limit upside. Indeed, break of 45560 support will argue that fall from 68986 is resuming through 41908.

                    Today’s fall has pushed Bitcoin back below 50k handle and 4 hour 55 EMA. We’ll now monitor if there is more downside acceleration to push it through 45560 to trigger the above bearish case.

                    WTI oil extending rally, eyeing 77.2 projection level

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
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                      Oil prices follow broad based risk-on sentiments and jumped higher this week. Investors seem to be getting Omicron worries behind, as the health impacts of infection look much milder than feared.

                      With the strong break of 55 day EMA, WTI’s pull back from 85.92 has likely completed at 62.90 already. Immediate focus is now on 100% projection of 62.90 to 73.66 from 66.46 at 77.22. Firm break there could bring upside acceleration to 161.8% projection at 83.86.

                      For now, we’re viewing the pattern from 85.92 has a sideway corrective pattern, with range set between 61.90 and 85.92. Hence, we’d not expecting a break of 85.92 any time soon. Instead, there should at least be one more falling leg to complete the pattern. Let’s see.

                      Gold pressing 1814 resistance, but losing momentum

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
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                        Immediate focus is now on 1814.06 resistance in Gold. Firm break there will resume the rebound from 1752.32, and solidify the case that fall from 1877.05 has completed. In this case, stronger rally should be seen towards 1877.05 key structural resistance next.

                        However, note that Gold is already losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour 55 EMA. Rejection by 1814.06 will bring another falling leg to extend the pattern from 1814.06. But still, further rally will remain mildly in favor as long as 1784.78 support holds.

                        S&P 500 surged to new record, heading to 5000 and above

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
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                          S&P 500 rose 1.38% to new record at 4791.19 overnight. The development confirmed resumption of whole up trend from 202 low at 2191.86. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 4531.10 support holds. Next medium term target is 138.2% projection of 2191.86 to 3588.11 from 3233.94 at 5163.55, which is slightly above 5000 handle. That would be a key level for S&P 500 to overcome in the early part of next year.

                          Meanwhile, to solidify the case of full return of risk-on sentiment, we’d like to see NASDAQ breaking through 16212.22 high and DOW through 36565.73.

                          Japan industrial production surged record 7.2% mom in Nov

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
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                            Japan industrial production rose 7.2% mom in November, well above expectation of 4.8% mom. That’s the biggest gain on record, going to back to as early as 1978. Comparing to the same month of 2020, industrial production was up 5.4% yoy.

                            Based on a poll of manufacturers, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expects output to advance 1.6% in December and climb 5.0% in January.

                            Also released, unemployment rate edged up to 2.8% in November, from October’s 2.7%.

                            Canada GDP grew 0.8% mom in Oct, 0.3% mom in Nov

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
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                              Canada GDP grew 0.8% mom in October, matched expectations. Goods-producing sector rose 1.6% mom while services-producing sector rose 0.6% mom. 17 of 20 industrial sectors posted gains.

                              According to advance information, GDP increased 0.3% in November, led by accommodation and food services, wholesale trade, construction and the arts and entertainment sectors, while the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector offset some of the gains.

                              Full release here.

                              US durable goods orders rose 2.5% in Nov, ex-transport orders up 0.8%

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                                ActionForex.com
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                                US durable goods orders rose 2.5% mom to USD 268.3B in November, above expectation of 2.5% mom. That’s also the sixth increased of the last seven months.

                                Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.8% mom, above expectation of 0.6% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 2.0% mom. Transportation equipment rose 6.5% mom.

                                Full release here.

                                US PCE inflation rose to 5.7% yoy, core CPI to 4.7%, highest since 80s

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
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                                  US personal income rose 0.4% mom mama, or USD 90.4B in November, matched expectations. Personal spending rose 0.6% mom or USD 104.7B, also matched expectations.

                                  Headline PCE price index accelerated to 5.7% yoy, up from 5.1% yoy, above expectation of 5.6% yoy. That’s the highest level since 1982. Core PCE price index accelerated to 4.7% yoy, up from 4.2% yoy, above expectation of 4.5% yoy. That’s the highest level since 1989.

                                  Full release here.

                                  US initial jobless claims unchanged at 205k, matched expectations

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    US initial jobless claims was unchanged at 205k in the week ending December 17, matched expectations. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 3k to 206k.

                                    Continuing claims dropped -8k to 1859k in the week ending December 11. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -49k to 1920k. Both are the lowest since March 14, 2020.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Silver extending recovery, Gold back above 1800

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      Silver’s recovery continues today even though momentum remains a bit weak. A short term bottom should be formed at 21.39 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. That came after defending 21.41 support. Further rise should be seen as long as 22.17 minor support holds, to 55 day EMA (now at 23.18). Sustained break there will raise the chance that whole corrective pattern from 30.07 has completed as a five-wave descending triangle. However, break of 22.17 support will revive near term bearishness for another fall through 21.39.

                                      Gold also strengthens mildly today and is back above 1800 handle. But it’s still limited below 1814.06 temporary top. For now, further rise is in favor as long as 1781.99 minor support holds. Break of 1814.06 will resume the rebound from 1752.32 short term bottom towards 1877.05 resistance. Firm break there will also raise that chance that whole corrective pattern from 2074.84 has completed. However, break of 1781.99 will revive near term bearishness for another fall through 1732.52.

                                      Japan raises fiscal 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.2%

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
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                                        Japan’s government slashed the current fiscal 2021 real GDP growth forecast from 3.7%, down from 2.6% as estimated in July. However, for fiscal 2022 starting April, real GDP growth forecast was upgraded from 2.2% to 3.2%. That would be the fastest growth rate since fiscal 2020 with GDP hitting a record JPY 556.8T.

                                        “The economy has shown signs of picking up, so we must ensure the current positive momentum moves to sustainable economic recovery,” a Cabinet Office official told reporters. “We have not yet reached autonomous growth but we’re making steady progress to generate a virtuous cycle of growth and wealth distribution.”

                                        US consumer confidence rose to 115.8, expectations jumped

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose from 111.9 to 115.8 in December, above expectation of 111.1. Present Situation Index dropped from 144.4 to 144.1. Expectations Index rose from 90.2 to 96.9.

                                          “Consumer confidence improved further in December, following a very modest gain in November,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index dipped slightly but remains very high, suggesting the economy has maintained its momentum in the final month of 2021. Expectations about short-term growth prospects improved, setting the stage for continued growth in early 2022. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, major appliances, and vacations over the next six months all increased.”

                                          “Meanwhile, concerns about inflation declined after hitting a 13-year high last month as did concerns about COVID-19, despite reports of continued price increases and the emergence of the Omicron variant. Looking ahead to 2022, both confidence and consumer spending will continue to face headwinds from rising prices and an expected winter surge of the pandemic.”

                                          Full release here.

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