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Silver heading to 22.36 support after rejection by 55 day EMA

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    ActionForex.com
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    Silver follows Gold and drops sharply this week. The development should confirm rejection by 55 day EMA and the bearish signal suggests that larger decline from 30.07 is ready to resume. Near term focus is now back on 22.36 support. Break there will target 61.8% projection of 28.73 to 22.36 from 24.86 at 20.92.

    Also, the rejection by 55 week EMA also carries medium term bearish implication. The whole decline from 30.07 has the potential to drop to as low as 61.8% retracement of 11.67 to 30.07 at 18.69 before completion.

    New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing dropped to 40.1, economic pain being felt

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      ActionForex.com
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      New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing index dropped to 40.1 in August, down from 62.6, back in contraction. Looking at some more details, production tumbled from 63.9 to 27.7. Employment dropped from 57.9 to 54.5. New orders dropped from 63.7 to 44.4. Finished stocks dropped from 56.8 to 46.1 Deliveries dropped from 56.3 to 33.6.

      BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel stated that “while many anticipate a bounce in activity as the country progresses down alert levels (all going well on the Covid front), today’s PMI clearly demonstrates the economic pain being felt.  This should not be underestimated, even if there is hope for the future. GDP and manufacturing output are expected to fall heavily in Q3.  It is something of a reality check in the afterglow of yesterday’s very strong Q2 GDP outcome.”

      Full release here.

      US retail sales rose 0.7% in Aug, ex-auto sales jumped 1.8%

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        ActionForex.com
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        US retail sales rose 0.7% mom to USD 618.7B in August, much better than expectation of -0.7% decline. Ex-auto sales rose 1.80% mom, versus expectation of -0.1% decline. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.8% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales rose 2.0% mom. Total sales for the June 2021 through August 2021 period were up 16.3% from the same period a year ago

        Full release here.

        US initial jobless claims rose 20k to 332k

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          ActionForex.com
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          US initial jobless claims rose 20k to 332k in the week ending September 11, above expectation of 316k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -4k to 336k, lowest since March 14, 2020.

          Continuing claims dropped -187k to 2665k in the week ending September 4, lowest since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -50k to 2808k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

          Full release here.

          ECB Rehn confidence to ensure favorable financing conditions when exiting crisis measures

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            ActionForex.com
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            ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said while growth in Eurozone is robust, supported is still needed. The outlook is clouded by bottlenecks as well as coronavirus variants.

            The central bank is expected to debate in December on timing and the way to wind down the PEPP purchases. Rehn said he’s confident to find a ” viable and meaningful way of ensuring favorable financing conditions when we start our very gradual transition from the crisis measures to the next normal.”

            He also urged governments to prepare for the eventual rise in borrowing cost even though a rate hike is “not yet within sight”. “It will nevertheless one day take place,” Rehn said. “This should be taken into account in budgetary planning in all the euro area countries.”

            Eurozone exports rose 11.4% yoy in Jul, imports rose 17.1% yoy

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              ActionForex.com
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              Eurozone exports of goods to the rest of the world rose 11.4% yoy in July to EUR 206.0B. Imports rose 17.1% yoy to EUR 185.3B. As a result, Eurozone recorded a EUR 20.7B surplus in trade, Intra-Eurozone trade rose 16.8% yoy to EUR 179.7B.

              In seasonally adjusted term, Eurozone exports rose 1.0% mom while imports rose 0.3%. Trade surplus widened from EUR 119.0B to EUR 13.4B, below expectation of EUR 16.8B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose from EUR 175.5B to EUR 178.0B.

              Full release here.

              Japan: Economy’s pace weakened in severe pandemic situation

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                ActionForex.com
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                Japanese Government’s Cabinet office maintained that the economy “remains in picking up”, but added that “pace has weakened in a severe situation due to the Novel Coronavirus”. In particular, “some weakness s seen recently” in industrial production, even though it’s still “picking up”.

                Other assessments are largely unchanged, with private consumption showing weakness further. Business is picking up while exports continue to increase moderately. Corporate profits are also picking up with some weakness in non-manufacturers. Employment situation shows steady movements in some components.

                Full release here.

                SECO downgrades Swiss 2021 GDP forecast to 3.2%

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                  ActionForex.com
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                  SECO downgraded Swiss GDP growth forecast to 3.2% in 2021, comparing to June forecast of 3.6%. Growth is projected to further accelerate to 3.4% in 2022. It added that “the economic recovery is set to continue as expected, though growth is initially less dynamic than forecast previously.” Nevertheless, “economic activity is likely to have exceeded pre-crisis levels during the summer.”

                  SECO added, “highly exposed sectors such as international tourism are likely to emerge from the crisis more hesitantly”. But, “provided that severely restrictive measures such as business lockdowns are not imposed in the coming months, the economic recovery should continue uninterrupted.”

                  Full release here.

                  Japan exports grew 26.2% yoy in Aug, imports rose 44.7% yoy

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                    ActionForex.com
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                    Japan’s exports grew 26.2% yoy to JPY 6605B in August. That’s the sixth straight month of double-digit annual growth, as boosted by strong demand for chip-making equipment. By destination, exports to China, the largest trading partner, grew 12.6% yoy. Exports to Asia as a whole rose 26.1% yoy. Exports to the US rose 22.8% yoy. Exports to EU rose 29.9% yoy.

                    Imports jumped 44.7% yoy to JPY 7241B, due to stronger demand for fuel and medical goods. Trade balance came in at JPY -635B deficit, the largest shortfall since December 2021.

                    In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 0.8% mom to JPY 7104B. Imports rose 4.6% mom to JPY 7276B. Trade deficit came in at JPY -272B versus expectation of JPY 80B surplus.

                    Full release here.

                    Australia employment dropped -146.3k in Aug, people also dropping out of labor force

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                      ActionForex.com
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                      Australia employment dropped -146.3k in August, even worse than expectation of -70.0k. Full-time jobs dropped -68k while part-time jobs dropped -78.2k.

                      Unemployment rate, on the other hand, dropped -0.1% to 4.6%, versus expectation 4.9%. But that’s due to a sharp fall in participation rate by -0.8% to 65.2%. Monthly hours worked dropped -66m hours or -3.7% mom.

                      Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said: “The fall in the unemployment rate reflects a large fall in participation during the recent lockdowns, rather than a strengthening in labour market conditions.

                      “Throughout the pandemic we have seen large falls in participation during lockdowns — a pattern repeated over the past few months. Beyond people losing their jobs, we have seen unemployed people drop out of the labour force, given how difficult it is to actively look for work and be available for work during lockdowns.

                      Full release here.

                      New Zealand GDP grew 2.8% qoq in Q2, well above expectation

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                        ActionForex.com
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                        New Zealand GDP grew 2.8% qoq in Q2, well above expectation of 1.2% qoq. Growth was led by service industries, which rose 2.8% qoq. Primary industries rose 5.0% qoq. Goods producing industries rose 1.3% qoq.

                        “The June 2021 quarter experienced fewer COVID-19 restrictions than previous quarters affected by COVID-19. Many industries experienced activity at or above pre-COVID-19 levels, while some remained below,” national accounts senior manager Paul Pascoe said.

                        Full release here.

                        ECB Lane: Should emphasize persistence, not volume of asset purchases

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
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                          ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in a webinar, “it’s not a good idea to identify the monetary policy stance with the volume of asset purchases.” Instead, “the efficient approach is to emphasize persistence.”

                          “We’re happy that our monetary accommodation is strengthening the underlying inflation dynamic and over time — this will continue to build. We have a coherent policy setting,” he added.

                          BoJ Kuroda: Inflation will eventually reach 2% target, but not before 2023

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                            ActionForex.com
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                            BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated in an online seminar, “Japan’s economy will recover as the impact of COVID-19 wane due to further progress in vaccinations.”

                            “We expect that inflation rate will steadily go up and eventually reach 2% target, although not before 2023,” he said.

                            He also pledged, “if necessary, we will further relax our monetary policy”.

                            Canada CPI jumped to 4.1% yoy in Aug, highest since 2003

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
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                              Canada CPI accelerated further from 3.7% yoy to 4.1% yoy in August, above expectation of 3.9% yoy. That’s also the fastest pace since March 2003. Statistics Canada said the increase mainly stems from an accumulation of recent price pressures and from lower price levels in 2020.

                              Looking at some more details, CPI common rose from 1.7% yoy to 1.8% yoy, above expectation of 1.7% yoy. CPI median was unchanged at 2.6% yoy, matched expectations. CPI trimmed rose from 3.1% yoy to 3.3% yoy, above expectation of 3.1% yoy.

                              Full release here.

                              Eurozone industrial production rose 1.5% mom in Jul, EU up 1.4% mom

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                Eurozone industrial production rose 1.5% mom in July, above expectation of 0.5% mom. For the month, production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.5%, capital goods by 2.7%, durable consumer goods by 0.6% and intermediate goods by 0.4%, while production of energy fell by 0.6%.

                                EU industrial production rose 1.4% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases were registered in Ireland (+7.8%), Belgium (+5.0%) and Portugal (+3.5%). The largest decreases were observed in Lithuania (-2.0%), Slovenia (-1.8%) and Croatia (-1.6%).

                                Full release here.

                                Ifo: Germany inflation to hit 3% this year, fall back to 2-2.5% next

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
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                                  Ifo said inflation in Germany could hit as high as 3% this year. That could be explained by “accelerated increase in prices over the course of 2021” in apparent in energy, food, and some service industries.

                                  Inflation is expected to slow to 2.0-2.5% next year. But Head of Forecasts Timo Wollmershäuser said: “At the beginning of 2022, the special factors that have been driving inflation will peter out: it will be a year since the reduction in VAT was reversed and energy prices reached their pre-crisis levels,”

                                  Separately, ECB Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said, “ECB is monitoring the inflation performance closely but we are not seeing any second-round impacts.”

                                  UK CPI surged from 2% to 3.2% yoy in Aug, largest monthly leap on record

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    UK CPI surged to 3.2% yoy in August, up from 2.0% yoy, above expectation of 2.9% yoy. That sharp 1.2% jump in CPI was the highest leap recorded, but ONS said “this is likely to be a temporary change. CPI core rose to 3.1% yoy, up from 1.8% yoy, above expectation of 2.9% yoy. RPI also rose to 4.8% yoy, up from 3.8% yoy, above expectation of 4.6% yoy.

                                    Also released, PPI input came in at 0.4% mom, 11.0% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 10.3% yoy. PPI output was at 0.7% mom, 5.9% yoy, versus expectation of 0.4% mom, 5.4% yoy. PPI core output was at 1.0% mom, 5.4% yoy.

                                    Full CPI release here.

                                    China retail sales grew only 2.8% yoy in Aug, way below expectation

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      China retail sales growth slowed sharply to 2.8% yoy in August , down from July’s 8.5% yoy, well below expectation of 7.1% yoy. China industrial production growth slowed further to 5.3% yoy, below expectation of 5.8% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 8.9% ytd yoy, below expectation of 9.1%.

                                      In a released, the National Bureau of Statistics said, “generally speaking, in August, the national economy maintained the trend of recovery. However, we must be aware that the international environment is still complicated and severe. At home, it has been felt that the sporadic outbreak of COVID-19 and natural disasters such as floods had caused impact on the economy, and the foundation for the economic recovery still needs to be consolidated”.

                                      OECD downgrades Australia growth forecast, urges broad RBA review

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        In the latest Economy Survey of Australia, OECD downgraded the country’s GDP growth to 4.0% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022, from May’s forecast of 5.1% and 3.4% respectively. It said the upcoming post-restriction recovery may be “more gradual than in past episodes”, as it will “occur in an environment of higher virus transmission”. COVID-19 outbreaks in other states than New South Wales and Victoria, could deepen the economic shock. “Any ratcheting up of tensions with China could further weaken trade activity.”

                                        OECD also pointed out that underlying inflation has undershot RBA’s target band for an extended period of time. It suggested that RBA should “conduct a monetary policy framework review that is broad in scope, transparent and involves consultation with a wide variety of relevant stakeholders.”

                                        In response, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said, “it’s something I will give consideration to in terms of looking at the RBA, looking at the monetary policy settings and learning from the experience through the pandemic. The RBA has performed very well through this crisis, its policy response has been in sync and coordinated with the government’s fiscal response.”

                                        OECD press release, blog post, and report.

                                        Australia Westpac consumer sentiment rose to 106.2, strong resilient despite lockdown

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          Australia Westpac-MI consumer sentiment rose 2.0% to 106.2 in September. The index remained comfortably above the levels five years prior to the pandemic. Confidence in New South Wales rose 5.3% while Victoria was steady at 104.1, despite extended lockdown in both states. Queensland jumped 8.4% to 111.6. Overall, the data indicates strong resilience of consumer sentiment and positives reactions to vaccination progresses.

                                          Westpac added that given that RBA has already defer the next review of the asset purchase program to February, it’s highly unlikely that there will be any policy changes before that meeting. Nevertheless, it added, “with the US Federal Reserve likely to have begun its tapering program by then and the economy likely to be bouncing back as high vaccination levels see easing restrictions, we expect the Board to further taper its bond purchases in February.”

                                          Full release here.

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