ECB Knot and Visco doubt if inflation falls below 2% after 2022

    ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said he had a “different view” to ECB’s projection that inflation will fall back to 1.8% after 2022. He said, “I think the chance we remain stuck above 2% is just as big. Not far above 2%, but still.”

    Separately, another governing council member Ignazio Visco said, “(Inflation) forecasts below 2% in 2023-24 are of course subject to both downside and upside risks.”

    France PMI composite rose to 52.7, outperformance likely to continue in Q3

      France PMI Manufacturing rose to 51.0 in August, up from 49.7 and beat expectation of 49.5, back in expansionary region. PMI Services rose to 53.3, up from 52.6 and beat expectation of 52.5. It’s also a 9-month high. PMI Composite Rose to 52.7, up from 51.9.

      Commenting on the Flash PMI data, Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said:

      “French private sector businesses posted another solid increase in output during August. Service sector expansion continued to surpass manufacturing growth, reflecting the broader trend seen across the eurozone in recent months.

      “However, in contrast to its peers, economic growth in France has remained solid and the latest set of PMI figures only add weight to the argument that this outperformance is likely to continue in the third quarter.”

      Full release here.

      Russian PM resigns to give way to Putin’s constitutional changes

        As reported by Russia’s Tass, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev submitted his resignation to President Vladimir Putin today. That’s seen as a move to make way for Putin’s changes in the constitution, to increase the powers of both the prime minster and the cabinet.

        The news came after Putin’s annual state of the nation address earlier, where he proposed constitutional amendments. He said, the changes would “increase the role and significance of the country’s parliament … of parliamentary parties, and the independence and responsibility of the prime minister.”

        The moves reignites speculations on Putin’s plan after his current presidential term ends in 2024. One possibility is that he would shift power to the parliament and assume an enhanced role as prime minister afterwards.

        Swiss Franc jumps broadly on the news, taking Euro higher.

        Fed Logan advocates for more restrictive monetary policy

          Dallas President Fed Lorie Logan has voiced concerns about inflation and suggested that a more restrictive monetary policy may be necessary. She indicated that, based on the recent economic data and the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, it would have been fitting to raise the federal funds target range FOMC June meeting.

          However, Logan pointed out the “challenging and uncertain environment,” arguing that “it can make sense to skip a meeting and move more gradually.”

          Logan expressed deep concerns about whether inflation will return to target levels in a timely and sustainable manner. She further noted, “the continuing outlook for above-target inflation and a stronger-than-expected labor market calls for more-restrictive monetary policy.”

          On the notion of a delayed impact from past policy actions, Logan expressed skepticism, saying, “I’m skeptical about the potential for large additional effects from this channel.” This stance challenges the widely held view that policy measures often take time to influence the economy, suggesting the need for swift action in addressing the current economic issues.

          US 10-yr yield back above 1.6, 30-yr yield above 2.0

            US treasury yields surged sharply overnight as investors continued to adjust themselves “living with the virus”. Omicron is now generally taken as being much less harmful to the global economy as initially feared, despite record infection numbers.

            10-year yield closed up 0.116 to 1.628, back above 1.6 handle for the first time since November. We’re holding on to the view that consolidation pattern from 1.765 has complete with three waves at 1.343. TNX could accelerate upwards in the near term to 1.693 resistance. Firm break there would send TNX through 1.765 to resume larger up trend from 0.398 (2020 low).

            The picture in 30-year yield is similar. It’s now back above 2.0 handle after yesterday’s rise. Corrective pattern from 2.505 should have completed with three waves down to 1.678. Further rally should be seen to 2.177 in the near term. Sustained break there will raise the chance that it’s already resuming the up trend from 0.837 (2020 low) through 2.505 high.

            AUD/JPY rises on risk-on sentiment, ready for up trend resumption?

              On the back of risk-on sentiment, AUD/JPY rally resumed the rally from 87.28 today, and hit as high as 91.67 so far. The development affirms the case that correction from 95.73 has completed with three waves down to 87.28. Further rally should be seen as long as 89.63 support holds. Next target is 94.00 resistance.

              Also, while the pull back from 95.73 was deep, it was held above 85.78 resistance turned support, as well as 55 week EMA. Medium term bullishness is maintained. Firm break of 94.00 will argue that whole up trend from 59.85 (2020 low) is ready to resume through 95.73. In that case, next medium term target will be 100% projection of 59.85 to 85.78 from 78.77 at 104.70.

              SNB Zurbruegg: Negative interest rates still needed due to the situation globally

                SNB Vice President Fritz Zurbruegg said in a Sonntagszeitung interview over the weekend, “at the moment we need the negative interest rates due to the situation globally.” He warned, “if we were to hike interest rates now, the franc would appreciation markedly, economic growth would slow and joblessness would increase.” He also noted that the pickup in inflation in Switzerland is “temporary”. In the medium term, “we expect it to stay low,” he said.

                President Thomas Jordan remains on leave on medical grounds and there is no return date yet. Zurbregg said finding a successor for Jordan “isn’t a topic”. “Thomas Jordan will take up his post again.”

                 

                Trump blasts EU, China and Fed again

                  Trump continues to blast the EU, China and even Fed (well of course not Russia, nor North Korea) with his tweets today

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                  For those who’re new to the markets, the 2007-2008 global financial crisis started with the bursting of the subprime mortgage bubbles in the US. Fed cut policy rate to 0-0.25% in December 2008. And in late November that year, Fed started QE1. In 2011, Fed started QE2. And in 2012, Fed started QE3.

                  ECB cut the main policy rate to 0.25% much later in 2013 and then subsequently to 0.00% in 2016. While ECB used the Securities Markets Programme since 2010, QE is seen as formally started in 2015.

                  The current situation of US rasing interest rate is a result of the US leading the way in loosening monetary policy to counter the problem of theirs.

                  And, would Kudlow or Navarro or give him a lesson that Fed’s rate hikes are still not tightening, but policy normalization, or removal of accommodations. The US economy has been enjoying the privileges of ultra loose monetary policy and it’s time to treat it as it should be treated.

                  And if the Fed doesn’t normalize its policies during a time when the economy is doing so well, what is left for Fed is save the economy when the next crisis comes?

                  The above are some common sense indeed. But for those who choose to ignore, our response is like someone who said this week — “where do we start?”

                  US initial jobless claims rose to 227k, above expectations

                    US initial jobless claims rose 11k to 227k in the week ending March 5, above expectation of 205k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 500 to 231k.

                    Continuing claims rose 25k to 1494k in the week ending February 26. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -31k to 157k, lowest since March 28, 1970.

                    Full release here.

                    RBA downgrades 2023 CPI and GDP forecasts slightly

                      In the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, RBA reiterated that “some further tightening of monetary policy may be required”. This decision, however, would hinge on the incoming data and the evolving assessment of risks. Economic forecasts remain largely unchanged, with a slight downgrade in 2023 CPI forecast as well as 2023 and 2024 GDP projections.

                      The central bank’s outlook for inflation remains more or less steady as compared to three months ago. “CPI inflation is forecast to continue to decline, to be around 3ÂĽ per cent at the end of 2024 and back within the 2–3 per cent target range in late 2025,” the statement highlighted. The Board maintains that the risks around the inflation outlook are “broadly balanced”.

                      While the labour market remains tight, conditions have seen slight relaxation. The bank notes, “In response to the tight labour market and high inflation, wage growth picked up to its highest rate in a decade.”

                      The economic growth perspective appears somewhat muted, with the statement acknowledging that “Growth in economic activity has been subdued this year.” Looking ahead, the central bank remains cautious, predicting that “Growth in the economy is expected to remain subdued over the period ahead.”

                      New economic forecasts

                      CPI inflation at (vs previous forecast):

                      • 4.25% in Dec 2023 (down from 4.50%).
                      • 3.50% in June 2024 (unchanged).
                      • 3.25% in Dec 2024 (unchanged).
                      • 300% in Jun 2025 (unchanged).
                      • 2.75% in Dec 2025 (new).

                      Trimmed mean CPI inflation at:

                      • 4.00% in Dec 2023 (unchanged).
                      • 3.25% in Jun 2024 (unchanged).
                      • 3.00% in Dec 2024 (unchanged).
                      • 3.00% in Jun 2025 (unchanged).
                      • 2.75% in Dec 2025 (new).

                      Year-average GDP growth at:

                      • 1.50 in 2023 (down from 1.75%).
                      • 1.25% in 2024 (down from 1.50%).
                      • 2.00% in 2025 (new).

                      Full RBA Statement on Monetary Policy here.

                      CBI expects BoE hikes in Q3 2018, Q1 2019 and Q4 2019

                        The Confederation of British Industry projects UK growth to lag well behind peers in 2018 and 2019. UK real GDP growth is forecast to be at 1.4% in 2018 and 1.3% in 2019 only. Eurozone growth is forecast to be at 2.2% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2019. US growth is forecast to be at 2.% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019.

                        Though, UK would still be better than Japan at 1.1% growth in both 2018 and 2019. India is projected to stay strong with 7.3% growth in 2018 and 7.1% in 2019. China’s growth is expected to slow notably to 6.3% in 2018 and 5.8% in 2019.

                        On monetary policy, CBI expects 25bps BoE hike in Q3 2018, Q1 2019 and Q4 2019. Inflation is projected to slow to 2.1% at the end of 2019.

                        CBI Chief Economist Rain Newton-Smith said that there is no disguising that UK is in “slow lane” for growth. And, “productivity weakness is a structural challenge for the UK economy and a drag on living standards.” She also urged firms to work with the Government to “nurture a pro-enterprise environment to drive growth and create wealth.” Also, “business and government must work together to drive competitiveness at home so firms can make the most of opportunities overseas” after Brexit.

                        Full release here.

                        Previews on SNB, BoE and ECB

                          SNB, BoE and ECB rate decisions are the focuses of the day and all are expected to deliver 50bps rate hikes.

                          There are some talks that given SNB only meets every quarter, it may surprise the market by maintaining the pace of 75bps. But the balance is more towards a 50bps hike to 1.00%. Tightening bias should be maintained while some focuses will be on the rhetoric on Swiss Franc exchange rate.

                          BoE is expected to raise policy rate by 50bps to 3.50%. Some attention will be on the voting. Last month, only seven MPC members voted for the 75bps hike. Swati Dhingra voted for 50bps, while Silvana Tenreyro voted for 25bps.

                          ECB should raise the main refinancing rate by 50bps to 2.50%. Additionally, it would announce some key principles regarding quantitative tightening, but the details main only come later, probably at February’s meeting. The new economic projections would also be watched closely on the central banks view on the path of slowing inflation and recession.

                          Here are some previews for SNB, BoE and ECB:

                          Bundesbank: Germany inflation to hit 7% or higher, resolute action needed

                            Bundesbank revised down growth projection for Germany’s GDP in 2022 and 2023, and upgraded inflation projection for 2022, 2023, and 2024.

                            2022 GDP growth is slashed from 4.2% to just 1.9%. 2023 growth was cut from 3.2% to 2.4%. But 2024 growth was raised from 0.9% to 1.8%.

                            2022 HICP inflation forecast was raised from 3.6% to 7.1%. 2023 HICP forecast was raised from 2.25% to 4.5%. 2024 HICP forecast was raised from 2.2% to 2.6%.

                            President Joachim Nagel said: “Inflation this year will be even stronger than it was at the beginning of the 1980s. Price pressures have even intensified again recently, which is not fully reflected in the present projections. If this development is assumed to continue, the annual average HICP rate for 2022 could be considerably above 7%”.

                            Euro area inflation rates won’t fall by themselves,” Nagel added. “Monetary policy is called upon to reduce inflation through resolute action.”

                            Full release here.

                            BoE Bailey: The Bank will act as necessary to deliver the monetary and financial stability

                              BoE Governor Andrew Bailey pledged that “however the economic outlook evolves, the Bank will act as necessary to deliver the monetary and financial stability that are essential for long-term prosperity and meet the needs of the people of this country.” That is the central bank’s “total and unwavering commitment” to safeguard the UK economy during the current coronavirus crisis.

                              He also noted that the central bank is “not out of monetary policy tools”. It’s appropriate to continues with “aggressive pace” of QE for the moment. Further, there will be another MPC meeting “before getting anywhere near completion of the QE program”. But, “it’s about what is the appropriate response and what information, news, we think we’re going to get in the quite near future.”

                              Bailey’s comment affirmed markets’ views that BoE is on a wait-and-see approach for the moment. He left the door open for more easing if situations don’t improve over Q2.

                              Into European session: NZD weakest on Dovish RBNZ, Yen and Dollar Strongest

                                Entering into European session, New Zealand Dollar is overwhelmingly the weakest one today. Kiwi dives sharply after RBNZ left OCR unchanged at 1.75% but turned dovish. It indicates that the next move will be a cut. Markets are pricing in full cut in November but it could happen as soon as in May. Australian Dollar follows as the second weakest. RBA is generally expected to cut interest rate twice this year. RBNZ’s turn just adds to the case for dovish RBA.

                                Meanwhile, Yen is the strongest one for today so far but momentum is not that apparent yet. Dollar follows as the second strongest mainly thanks to weakness elsewhere. In particular EUR/USD’s broke 1.1273 minor support to resume fall from 1.1448 and could be heading back to 1.1176 low. Sterling is awaiting votes on Brexit alternatives in the Commons later today.

                                In Asia:

                                • Nikkei closed down -0.23%.
                                • Hong Kong HSI is up 0.57%.
                                • China Shanghai SSE is up 0.60%, back above 3000 handle.
                                • Singapore Strait Times is up 0.30%.
                                • Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.027 at -0.068.

                                Overnight in US:

                                • DOW rose 0.55%.
                                • S&P 500 rose 0.72%.
                                • NASDAQ rose 0.71%.
                                • 10-year yield dropped -0.006 to 2.414.

                                G20 see economic outlook as less negative

                                  G20 finance ministers and central banks see the global economic outlook as “less negative”. They are going to pledge to “sustain and strengthen” policy actions and “facilitate international” trade and enticements. Also, G20 will agree to freeze on the servicing of official bilateral debt for poor countries for another six months.

                                  “The outlook is less negative with global economic activity showing signs of recovery as our economies have been gradually reopening and the positive impacts of our significant policy actions started to materialize,” the draft of the communique showed. “We will sustain and strengthen as necessary our policy response, considering the different stages of the crisis, to secure a stable and sustainable recovery.”

                                  “We will continue to facilitate international trade, investment and to build resilience of supply chains to support growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development”.

                                  Canada employment dropped -71.2k, unemployment rate surged to 5.9%

                                    Canada employment dropped -71.2k in November, well below expectation of 10.0k. Unemployment rate surged to 5.9%, up from 5.5% and was way worst than expectation of 5.5%. Employment declined in Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia, while it was little changed in the other provinces.

                                    In the goods-producing sector, fewer people worked in manufacturing (-28k) and in natural resources (-6.5k), with most of the declines in each of these industries observed in Quebec. The employment decrease in the services-producing sector was mostly accounted for by public administration, where the number of workers fell by -25k.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Fed Daly: Lift off in March is a quite reasonable thing

                                      In a Reuters interview, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said, “lifting off in March when you have an unemployment rate of 3.9%, and an inflation rate that’s north of our price stability goal of average 2% inflation, to me seems a quite reasonable thing.” But she didn’t offer her prediction on the number of rate hike needed this year.

                                      Daly also said even with the rate hikes, “we are not bridling the economy and starting to restrain it.” Rate would remain well below the “neutral” level of 2.50%. Meanwhile, once Fed has raised rates once or twice, she said, it should start shrinking the balance sheet as a “predictable” manner.

                                      Fed Brainard: Thick fog of uncertainty calls for sustained commitment to monetary accommodation

                                        Fed Governor Lael Brainard said in a speech that while employment and activity “rebounded faster and more sharply than anticipated”, ” recent resurgence in COVID cases is a sober reminder that the pandemic remains the key driver of the economy’s course”.

                                        A “thick fog of uncertainty” is still surrounding the US and “downside risks predominate. She added, “the recovery is likely to face headwinds even if the downside risks do not materialize, and a second wave would magnify that challenge.”

                                        The uncertainty is “calling for a sustained commitment to accommodation, along with additional fiscal support.”

                                        US consumer confidence rises to 110.7 in Dec

                                          US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose from 101.0 to 110.7 in December, above expectation of 103.9. Present Situation Index rose from 136.5 to 148.5. Expectations Index rose from 77.4 to 85.6.

                                          “December’s increase in consumer confidence reflected more positive ratings of current business conditions and job availability, as well as less pessimistic views of business, labor market, and personal income prospects over the next six months,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

                                          “While December’s renewed optimism was seen across all ages and household income levels, the gains were largest among householders aged 35-54 and households with income levels of $125,000 and above. December’s write-in responses revealed the top issue affecting consumers remains rising prices in general, while politics, interest rates, and global conflicts all saw downticks as top concerns. Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months abated in December to the lowest level seen this year—though two-thirds still perceive a downturn is possible in 2024.”

                                          Full US consumer confidence release here.