European stocks in selloff, German 10 Yr yield hit lowest since Apr 2017, Yen accelerates higher

    Following the selloff in Asian stock markets, major European indices open broadly lower and suffer heavy selling. Right now, FTSE is down -1.93%, DAX is down -1.45% and CAC is down -2.55%.

    In particular, we’d like to point out that German 10 year bund yield tumbles sharply. It’s current down -0.055 at 0.188. It actually hit as low as 0.181 in initial trading, breach the one day spike low at 0.186 back in May 2018. And it hit the lowest level since April 2017.

    In the currency markets, Yen remains the strongest one and is accelerating for now. Canadian Dollar and Dollar are the next. Australian Dollar is the weakest followed by Sterling and then Euro.

    UK CPI rose to 9% yoy in Apr, core CPI up to 6.2% yoy

      UK CPI accelerated sharply from 7.0% yoy to 9.0% yoy in April, but missed expectation of 9.1% yoy. CPI core rose from 5.7% yoy to 6.2% yoy, matched expectations. RPI accelerated form 9.0% to 11.1% yoy, matched expectations.

      Headline CPI was another record high since the National Statistics series began in 1997. It’s also the highest record rate in the constructed historical series which began in 1989.

      Based on the recently published modelled consumer price inflation data by the ONS, CPI was last higher sometime around 1982, where estimates range between approximately 6.5 % in December to nearly 11% in January.

      Full CPI release here.

      In response to the release, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said: “Today’s inflation numbers are driven by the energy price cap rise in April, which in turn is driven by higher global energy prices.

      “We cannot protect people completely from these global challenges but are providing significant support where we can, and stand ready to take further action.”

      Also released, PPI input came in at 1.1% mom, 18.6%, versus expectation of 2.6% mom, 20.7% yoy. PPI output was at 2.3% mom, 14.0% yoy, versus expectation of 1.6% mom, 12.5% yoy. PPI output core was at 1.6% mom, 13.0% yoy, versus expectation of 1.6% mom, 12.6% yoy.

      Japan PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.8, fractional deterioration in the sector

        Japan’s Manufacturing PMI was finalized at 49.8 in June, a downturn from May’s 50.6, according to au Jibun Bank. The reading fell just short of the neutral 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, indicating a slight decline in the health of the nation’s manufacturing sector.

        The report also highlighted that both output and new orders regressed, while supplier performance showed the most significant improvement since March 2016. Input prices increased at the slowest pace observed in the past 28 months.

        Usamah Bhatti of S&P Global Market Intelligence noted, “The latest data pointed to a fractional deterioration in the Japanese manufacturing sector at the midpoint of 2023.”

        However, the slackening in demand and output conditions had a double-edged effect. On one hand, pressure on supply chains eased in June, with average lead times shortening for the second successive month. Simultaneously, easing pressure on supply chains also alleviated inflationary pressures, driving the Input Prices Index to a 28-month low.

        Full Japan PMI manufacturing release here.

        Bitcoin hits new record but lacks follow through buying, more consolidations likely

          Bitcoin hits new record high at 48944 earlier today but lags follow through buying so far. Upside momentum is also unconvincing with bearish divergence condition in hourly MACD. For now, we’d continue to expect some strong resistance around 50k psychological level to limit upside and bring near term correction first.

          But near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 43777 support holds. We’d expect current up trend to target 100% projection of 17629 to 41964 from 29283 at 53618 next, after completing the envisaged consolidations.

          US GDP grew 6.9% annualized in Q4, well above expectations

            US GDP grew at 6.9% annualized rate in Q4, faster than Q3’s 2.3%, well above expectation of 5.6%. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in both federal and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

            For 2021 as a whole, real GDP grew 5.8% The increase in real GDP in 2021 reflected increases in all major subcomponents, led by PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment. Imports increased.

            Full release here.

            PBoC cut MLF rate to record low, LPR cut expected later in the month

              China’s PBoC cut the interest rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility today, by 20bps to 2.95%. That’s the lowest level on record and is expected to inject CNY 100B into the market. The move should also pave the way for a similar reduction in the benchmark Loan Prime rate later on the 20th, to lower financing costs for businesses.

              Earlier in the month, PBoC announced to cut the RRR for small banks to release reserves. The first phase would take effect today, and free up around CNY 200B of long-term funds. A total of CNY 400B of liquidity is expected after the second-phase of reserve ratio cut due in mid-May.

              Fed Waller: I really favor front-loading our rate hikes

                Fed Governor Christopher Waller told CNBC, “I really favor front-loading our rate hikes, that we need to do more withdrawal of accommodation now if we want to have an impact on inflation later this year and next year.”

                “So in that sense, the way to front-load it is to pull some rate hikes forward, which would imply 50 basis points at one or multiple meetings in the near future,” he added.

                “The data’s basically screaming at us to go 50, but the geopolitical events were telling you to go forward with caution,” he said. “So those two factors combined pushed me off of advocating for a 50-basis-point hike and supporting the 25-point hike that we enacted.”

                Waller also said the quantitative tightening should start “in the next meeting or two.” “We’re in a different place than we were before,” he said. “We have a much bigger balance sheet, the economy’s in a much different position. Inflation is raging. So, we’re in a position where we could actually draw down a large amount of liquidity out of the system without really doing much damage.”

                ECB Lagarde: It’s possible to continue on tightening path after march

                  ECB President Christine Lagarde told Spain TV channel Antena 3, “at this point in time, it’s possible that we continue on that path (of tightening after March)… By which amount in each and every meeting is impossible to say at this point.”

                  Regarding the terminal rate, Lagarde said, “the real honest answer is that it will determined by data.”

                  “What’s very certain is that we’ll do whatever’s needed in order to bring inflation back to 2%,” Lagarde said.

                  New Zealand employment flat in Q2, wage grow strongest since 2008

                    New Zealand employment was essentially flat in Q2, below expectation of 0.4% rise. Unemployment rate ticked up from 3.2% to 3.3%, against expectation a fall to 3.1%. Labor force participation rate dropped -0.1% to 70.8%.

                    Wage inflation (salary and wage rates, including overtime) in all sectors rose 1.1% qoq, 3.5% yoy. It grew 1.3% qoq, 3.4% yoy in private sector, and 0.6% qoq, 3.0% yoy in public sector.

                    “Measures of spare labour market capacity have fallen over the year and remained low for several quarters, continuing to show a tight labour market,” work and wellbeing statistics senior manager Becky Collett said.

                    “The June quarter had the largest increase in LCI salary and wages rates since late-2008. Over the year, a steadily increasing number of wages have been raised to better match market rates, as well as attracting or retaining staff,” business employment insights manager Sue Chapman said.

                    Full release here.

                    Fed Bostic: 75 to 100 basis points of additional tightening warranted

                      Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Saturday, “If the economy proceeds as I expect, I believe that 75 to 100 basis points of additional tightening will be warranted… It’s clear that more is needed, and I believe this level of the policy rate will be sufficient to rein in inflation over a reasonable time horizon.”

                      “In terms of pacing, assuming the economy evolves as I expect in the coming weeks, I would be comfortable starting the move away from 75-basis-point increases at the next meeting,” he added.

                      Bostic expected Fed to pause at some point to “let the economic dynamics play out,” given that it may take 12-24 months for the effect of rate hikes to be “fully realized.”

                      “I do not think we should continue raising rates until the inflation level has gotten down to 2%. Because of the lag dynamics I discussed earlier, this would guarantee an overshoot and a deep recession,” he said.

                      USD/JPY heading back to 110 as WTI oil hits 71, 10 year yield hit 3%

                        Oil price continues to surge on US withdrawal of Iran deal, WTI hit as high as 71.17 so far before retreat slightly to 70.9. US 10 year yield also follows and is back above 3% now.

                        In the currency markets, today’s trend continue with USD and CAD trading as the strongest ones. Meanwhile, JPY is trading as the weakest one. The is in line with the development of surging oil and yield.

                        Dollar is trading above last week’s high except versus JPY and GBP. Note that Yen’s strength last week was due to falling yields in US and, more so in Europe. Rebound in US yield could now put 110.02 resistance in USD/JPY back into focus.

                        Action Bias of USD/JPY is looking promising. H row is all upside blue with the current rebound. D action also turned from neutral to upside blue already.

                        Nonetheless, we’d stay cautious in the pair first, at least until either 110.02 is taken out, or when 6H action bias also turns upside blue.

                        Eurozone CPI eases to 4.3% in Sep, core CPI down to 4.5%

                          Eurozone CPI slowed from 5.2% yoy to 4.3% yoy in September, below expectation of 4.5% yoy. CPI core (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) also slowed from 5.3% yoy to 4.5% yoy, below expectation of 4.8% yoy.

                          Looking at the main components, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in September (8.8%, compared with 9.7% in August), followed by services (4.7%, compared with 5.5% in August), non-energy industrial goods (4.2%, compared with 4.7% in August) and energy (-4.7%, compared with -3.3% in August).

                          Full Eurozone CPI release here.

                          US ADP employment grew 742k in Apr, continues an upward trend of acceleration

                            US ADP employment grew 742k in April, below expectation of 808k. By company size, small businesses added 235k jobs, medium businesses 230k, large businesses 277k. By sector, goods-producing companies added 106k jobs, services-providing companies 636k.

                            “The labor market continues an upward trend of acceleration and growth, posting the strongest reading since September2020,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Service providers have the most to gain as the economy reopens, recovers and resumes normal activities and are leading job growth in April. While payrolls are still more than 8 million jobs short of pre-COVID-19 levels, job gains have totaled 1.3 million in the last two months after adding only about 1 million jobs over the course of the previous five months.”

                            Full release here.

                            US initial jobless claims rose to 219k, above expectation

                              US initial jobless claims rose 29k to 219k in the week ending October 1, above expectation of 205k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 250 to 206.5k.

                              Continuing claims rose 15k to 1361k in the week ending September 24. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped 10k to 1371k.

                              Full release here.

                              France GDP stagnated in Q1 with sharp decline in household consumption

                                France GDP stagnated with 0.0% qoq growth in Q1, below expectation of 0.3% qoq. Households’ consumption expenditure sharply decreased (-1.3% after +0.6%) while gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) slightly decelerated (+0.2% after +0.3%). Finally, internal demand excluding inventory changes contributed to -0.6 points to GDP growth, after +0.5 points in the previous quarter.

                                Full GDP release here.

                                Also from France, consumer spending dropped -1.3% mom in March, worse than expectation of -0.1% mom. CPI accelerated from 5.1% yoy to 5.4% yoy in April, above expectation of 5.1% yoy.

                                France PMI manufacturing finalized at 55.9 in Nov, tentative signs of stabilization

                                  France PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 55.9 in November, up from October’s 53.6. That’s the first increase since May. Markit noted that output volumes were broadly unchanged during the month. Demand improved, but remained subdued amid supply-related constraints. Output price inflation reached new high.

                                  Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, said: “Tentative signs of stabilisation were seen in the French Manufacturing PMI during November, with the growth slowdown seen since post-pandemic growth peaked back in May finally coming to a halt. The headline PMI posted its first increase for six months as trends improved in output, new orders and employment.

                                  “That said, beyond this positive direction change, the latest data continued to show intense supply-related constraints impeding manufacturing production, denting order book volumes and adding further pressure on margins. As a result, output prices were raised to the greatest extent since this data were first published back in 2002. While demand conditions have slowed, anecdotal evidence has thus far suggested this to be a symptom on component shortages, causing firms to postpone and cancel orders until supplies improve. We’re not seeing much evidence that higher prices are a factor in causing demand to soften, which means elevated rates of inflation may not prove so transitory as many anticipate.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  BoE Haskel: Rates have to be held higher and longer than many expecting

                                    BoE MPC member Jonathan Haskel, in a speech, delivered a clear message about the UK’s interest rate policy. Addressing the possibility of cutting interest rates in the near future, Haskel’s response was a definitive “no.”

                                    He substantiated this viewpoint by referring to the ongoing tightness in the labor market, a crucial factor in determining monetary policy.

                                    Haskel noted that the labor market remains “historically tight”, and based on current trends, it would take “at least a year” to return to the average tightness levels seen before the pandemic.

                                    Further emphasizing his stance, Haskel stated “rates will have to be held higher and longer than many seem to be expecting.”

                                    Full speech of BoE Haskel here.

                                    Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 13.6, suggests -7.5% quarterly GDP contraction

                                      Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 12.0 in April, down from March’s 26.4. PMI Composite was finalized at 13.6, down from 29.7. Looking at some countries, Spain PMI composite was finalized at 9.2, Italy at 10.9, France at 11.1, Ireland at 17.3, Germany at 17.4. All are record lows.

                                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “With a large part of the region’s economy shut down while COVID-19 infections spiked higher, the economic data for April were inevitably going to be bad, but the scale of the decline is still shocking. The survey data are indicative of GDP falling at a quarterly rate of around 7.5%, far surpassing the worst decline seen in the global financial crisis. Jobs are also being lost at a rate never previously seen… While the rate of decline may ease in coming months, we do not expect to see any material signs of recovery until the second half of the year, and it is likely to be several years before the output lost due to the virus outbreak is fully regained.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      China’s GDP grows 5.3% yoy in Q1, but March data weak

                                        China’s GDP grew 5.3% yoy in Q1, above expectation of 5.0% yoy. Comparing to Q4, GDP grew 1.6% yoy. By sector, primary industry was up 3.3% yoy, secondary industry rose 6.0% yoy, tertiary industry rose 5.0% yoy.

                                        In March, retail sales rose 3.1% yoy, below expectation of 5.1% yoy. Industrial production rose 4.5% yoy, below expectation of 6.0% yoy. Fixed asset investment rose 4.5% ytd yoy, above expectation of 4.3%.

                                        USD/CNH is steady after the release with focus on 7.2815 resistance. firm break there will resume whole rebound from 7.0870 and target 100% projection of 7.0870 to 7.2318 from 7.1715 at 7.3163. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 7.2354 support holds, in case of retreat.

                                        European Parliament Trade Committee approved EU-Japan trade deal, timely signal in support of open, fair, values-based and rules-based trade

                                          The European Parliament’s international trade committee voted 25-10 today to approve the EU-Japan trade deal signed back in July 17, 2018. The deal could now be sent to the full chamber for a vote in December plenary session. And, if it’s approved, the deal could enter into force as soon as the Japanese Diet ratifies it.

                                          In short, the EU-Japan trade deal will create a trade zone of 600m people, covering a third of of global GDP and around 40% of global trade. Eventually, the deal will remove almost all customs duties, worth roughly EUR 1B annually on European products and services exported to Japan.

                                          The European Parliament’s Trade Committee MEPs emphasized that the agreement “represents a timely signal in support of open, fair, values-based and rules-based trade, while promoting high standards, at a time of serious protectionist challenges to the international order”.

                                          Full European Parliament release here.