UK claimant count dropped -29.8k in Oct, unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in Sep

    UK claimant count dropped -29.8k in October, much better than expectation of 78.8k rise. That’s a monthly decrease of -1.1% to 2.6million. However, the level was still 112.4% above March’s number before the pandemic hit the job market.

    In the three months to September, unemployment rose 0.3% to 4.8%, matched expectations. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 1.9% 3moy, above expectation of 1.5%. Average earnings including bonus rose 1.3% 3moy, also above expectation of 1.0%.

    Full release here.

    German GDP grew 0.1% qoq in Q4, down -5% for whole 2020

      Germany GDP grew 0.1% qoq in Q4, above expectation of 0.0% qoq. DeStatis said in Q4, “the recovery process slowed due to the second coronavirus wave and another lockdown imposed at the end of the year. This affected household consumption in particular, while exports of goods and gross fixed capital formation in construction supported the economy. ” For the year 2020 as a whole, GDP dropped -5.0%.

      Full release here.

      Also from Germany, unemployment dropped -41k in December versus expectation of 7k rise. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.0%. Import price index rose 0.6% mom in December, versus expectation of 1.0% mom.

      UK Leadsom: Brexit plan B will be ready within days if the deal is voted down

        In UK, Andrea Leadsom, the Leader of the House of Commons, said the government will set out its plan B should Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal is voted down next week. She told the Parliament that “the prime minister has shown her willingness to always return to this House at the first possible opportunity if there is anything to report in terms of our Brexit deal and we will continue to do so.”

        Meanwhile, May’s spokesman said she is still working on more assurances from the EU on the Brexit deal, in particular the Irish backstop. May still hope to convince MPs to vote for the agreement on January 15.

        Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the party would vote against the deal. And after that it’s voted down, “an election must be the priority. It is not only the most practical option, it is also the most democratic option.” Though, he’s open that “if a general election cannot be secured, then we will keep all options on the table, including the option of campaigning for a public vote.”

        China’s coronavirus cases hit 9692, death toll at 213

          According to latest data from China’s National Health Commission, as of January 31, confirmed cases of coronavirus in the country rose 1982 to 9692. Death toll rose 43 to 213. Serious cases rose from 157 to 1527. Suspected cases rose 3071 to 15238. Number of people tracked rose 24886 to 113579.

          WHO has finally declared the coronavirus outbreak a global health emergence. Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said “the main reason for this declaration is not what is happening in China but what is happening in other countries.” But he added that the organization “doesn’t recommend – and actually opposes” restrictions on travel or trade with China.

          Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte halted all air traffic between Italy and China, after having two confirmed cases in two Chinese tourists. Japan raised travel warning to China to Level 2 and urge its people to avoid unnecessary travel to the country.

          CAD/JPY recovers mildly, but stays in consolidation

            CAD/JPY recovers mildly after better than expected Canadian job data. But it’s just staying well inside consolidation pattern from 110.17. More sideway trading could still be seen. But outlook remains bullish with 96.70 support intact. Larger up trend is expected to resume sooner or later through 100.17 short term top.

            In case of upside breakout, next target will be 100% projection of 73.80 to 91.16 from 84.65 at 102.01.

            Mid-US update: DOW in crash mode, Dollar gets no support from treasury yields

              Risk aversion is the main theme in the first half of US session as stocks are in crash mode. DOW is trading down -1.4% or -370 pts. S&P 500 is down -1.30% and NASDAQ is down -1.86%. European indices are even worse, with DAX closed down -2.21%, CAC down -2.11% and FTSE down -1.27%.

              Strength in global treasury yields is being blamed as the reason for the stock market selloff. German 10 year bund yield closed up 0.0041 at 0.556, quite “confidently” above 0.5 handle. US yields are also rising so far, with 5 year yield up 0.009 at 3.066, 10 year yield up 0.012 at 3.220, 30-year yield up 0.017 at 3.387. But we have to emphasize that these three US yields are held below last week’s highs.

              In the currency markets, commodity currencies are the weakest ones naturally. But it should be noted that Dollar doesn’t get any lift from US yields and is trading as the third weakest for now, next to Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollar. Yen and Swiss are not the strongest neither. It’s Sterling that’s the biggest winner and Euro the second. It will take some more time for us to analysis what’s really happening. But for sure, it’s not as simple as rising yield and falling stocks. We’re not satisfied with this simplistic explanation.

              Anyway, USD/JPY finally made up its mind to break through 38.2% retracement of 110.37 to 114.54 at 112.94. Next target is 61.8% retracement at 111.96.

              EUR/USD will most likely take out 1.1549 resistance to indicate short term bottoming at 1.1431. It’s unsure, for now, whether it will extend the corrective rise from 1.1300 through 1.1814. But at least, more upside is in favor in near term.

              The bigger question for us is, whether DOW has topped out in medium term at 26951.81, earlier that we expected. It’s a beautiful short wave five impulse from 23997.21 after wave four triangle from 26616.71 to 23997.21. Unfortunately, for now DOW is still holding above 55 day EMA. Thus, we cannot make a call yet. Let’s see how it goes for the rest of the week.

              Fed Bowman looking at very robust growth and tapering this year

                Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said yesterday, “even though some of the recent data may have been less strong than we expected, we are still looking at very robust economic growth.”

                “If the data comes in as I expect that it will, it will likely be appropriate for us to begin the process of scaling back our asset purchases this year,” she added.

                “It is important not to take too much signal from a single data point as we might have seen last week from the labor market,” Bowman said.

                US 30-year yield nearing historical low after huge plunge

                  Risk aversion dominated the US session overnight and carried forward in Asian session. DOW closed down -1.48%. S&P 500 dropped -1.22%. NASDAQ lost -1.20%. Technically, all three indices were rejected by 55 day EMAs, suggesting more near term downside pressure.

                  More importantly, treasury yields dived again on massive safe haven flows. 30-year yield took a big plunge by -0.118 to close at 2.130. TYX is now just inch above historical low of 2.102 made back in 2016. A break there is inevitable.

                  10-year yield also dropped -0.095 to 1.639. TNX is now below 78.6% retracement of 1.336 to 3.248 at 1.745. We’d still pay attention to bottoming above 1.336. But a firm break of 2.102 in TYX could likely drag TNX through this 1.336 low at least.

                  Japan’s PMI services finalized at 54.1, marked increase in cost burdens

                    Japan’s PMI Services was finalized at 54.1 in March, a notable improvement from February’s 52.9 and marking the most significant growth for the past seven months. PMI Composite also rose to 51.7 from the previous month’s 50.6.

                    Usamah Bhatti, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that near-term outlook for the service sector appears “robust”, as outstanding business, a key indicator of future work, continues to rise at “near-record rates”. Confidence regarding the 12-month future also remains strong among service providers.

                    However, the sector is not without its challenges, particularly on the price front. Businesses signaled “another marked increase in cost burdens,” underlining ongoing inflationary pressures. These pressures are mirrored in the broader Japanese private sector, where cost inflation has hit a “five-month high”.

                    Bhatti added that inflationary pressures, alongside BoJ’s recent shift away from negative interest rates, “will likely remain a downside risk to the Japanese private sector economy in the coming months.”

                    Full Japan PMI services final release here.

                    Canada CPI rose to 3.6% yoy in May, highest since 2011

                      Canada CPI accelerated to 3.6% yoy in May, up from 3.4% yoy, above expectation of 3.5% yoy. That’s the largest increase since May 2011. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 2.5% yoy. Looking at some details, prices rose in every major component on a year-over-year basis. Shelter prices rose 4.2% yoy, largest since September 2008. Durable goods prices rose 4.4% yoy, largest since 1989.

                      CPI common rose to 1.8% yoy, up from 1.7% yoy, matched expectations. CPI median rose to 2.4% yoy, up from 2.3% yoy, matched expectations. CPI trimmed rose to 2.7% yoy, up from 2.3% yoy, above expectation of 2.4% yoy.

                      Full release here.

                      EU Moscovici doesn’t want crisis with Italy, Austria said must reject the budget

                        European Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici talked about Italy again in Franc Inter radio today. He emphasized that the European Commission does not want any crisis with Italy over it’s budget. However, questions are there and the Commission is awaiting Italy’s answers.

                        Moscovici said that “the European Commission does not want a crisis between Brussels and Rome.” And “my state of mind is that of constructive dialogue.” Though, he also reiterated that “when you are an EU member and a member of the single currency, of the euro zone, you must respect a number of joint rules.” Moscovici has been rather cautious in handling Italy. While last week’s letter to Italy regarding the budget was strongly worded, Moscovici later said he wanted to reduce tensions, and solve the budget issue through “constructive dialogue”.

                        On the other hand, Austria Chancellor Sebastian Kurz warned that “if it is not amended, the European Commission must reject the budget” of Italy. Kurz added that “Austria is not prepared to stand up for the debts of other states while these states knowingly contribute to uncertainty in financial markets”. And he urged the EU to “prove that it has learned from the Greece crisis.”

                        UK PMI manufacutring ticked up, GBPUSD eyes 1.4095 minor resistance

                          UK PMI manufacturing rose 0.1 to 55.1 in March, above expectation of 54.7. Markit noted that it signals “steady growth rate at the end of opening quarter”.

                          Quotes from the release:

                          Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

                          • “The latest PMI survey provided further evidence that UK manufacturing has entered a softer growth phase so far this year. Although the pace of output expansion ticked higher in March, which is especially encouraging given the heavy snowfall during the month, this was offset by slower increases in new orders and employment. Average rates of increase over the opening quarter as a whole are also down noticeably from the growth spurt seen at the end of 2017. Compared to official data, the performance through quarter one is consistent with only a 0.4-0.5% gain in production volumes, a considerable slide from the fourth quarter’s 1.3% increase.
                          • “The key question is whether growth can now be sustained, albeit at a lower level, into the coming months. On that front the news is generally positive. Manufacturers are still reporting solid inflows of new work from domestic and overseas markets. Business optimism is holding steady at an elevated level, with over 54% of companies expecting output to expand over the coming 12 months. With cost inflationary pressures also moderating to provide some respite for margins, the sector looks set to make further slow and steady progress as we head through the spring.”

                          Duncan Brock, Group Director at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply:

                          • “After the mini-boom of productivity at the end of last year, the sector still held its own, delivering a steady if unremarkable performance with overall activity improving very modestly from last month.
                          • “Purchasing activity was higher than February’s 8- month growth low but purchasers were frustrated by their suppliers who failed to deliver essential materials on time and delivery times continued to get longer. As shortages were reported the finger of suspicion was pointed at the continuing impact of inflation on raw material prices caused by the scarcity, and subsequently forcing firms to pass on these increased prices to customers at a significantly elevated rate.
                          • “However, the biggest disappointment was the softening of new orders to a nine-month low followed by a feeble rise in job creation as the most discouraging result this year. While trade from the domestic market was still strong, and export markets also grew for the 23rd month in a row, the foundations for the sector’s continuing strength were looking a little more unstable.
                          • “Without a significant rise in new orders, and if supply chains are still disrupted by shortages or the weather, for the next few months it’s anticipated that there will be a continued muted pace of growth. A rather apathetic prediction, but while optimism remains high and the sector continues its efforts to increase marketing activity and launch new products, everything could change.”

                          GBP trades notably higher today against USD and JPY. With 1.3982 minor support intact, choppy fall from 1.4243 is seen as a corrective pull back. Break of 1.4095 will suggests that such pull back is completed and bring stronger rebound back to 1.4243.

                          BoJ stands pat and maintains easing bias

                            As anticipated, BoJ left its monetary policy unchanged today, maintaining its easing bias. Despite a rise in inflation expectations, CPI is projected to slow down during the current fiscal year before experiencing a moderate increase once again.

                            Under yield curve control, short-term policy rate was held at -0.10%. Long-term interest rate will remain at around 0% with necessary purchase of JGBs without an upper limit. The band for 10-year JGB yield to fluctuate stayed at plus and minus 0.5%.

                            BoJ maintained the pledge to continue with QQE with YCC for “as long as it is necessary”. It “will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary”. It also expects “short- and long-term policy interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels”.

                            BoJ said the economy “has picked up” with exports and industrial production “more or less flat”. The economy is projected to “continue growing at a pace above its potential growth rate” as a virtuous cycle form income to spending intensifies gradually.

                            Inflation expectations “have risen”. But, CPI is “likely to decelerate toward the middle of fiscal 2023”, then “accelerate moderately” on the back of improvement in output gap, rises in medium- to long-term inflation expectations in wage growth, and waning down of energy prices measures.”

                            The meeting was the last one to be chaired by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Kazuo Ueda was approved by both houses of the parliament this week as the next BoJ Governor.

                            Full statement here.

                            GBP/CHF extending rebound as BoE awaited, some upside prospects

                              BoE is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged today, with Bank Rate held at 0.10% and asset purchase target at GBP 895B. The overall tone on recovery should be upbeat given strong economy data flow. Yet, uncertainty remains high, in spite of high vaccination rate, regarding the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic that delayed restrictions easing. Headline inflation came in above BoE’s target in May. But the MPC would continue to view the movements as temporary and transitory.

                              Overall, BoE would wait until August meeting to decide on tapering. By then, new economic projections would be released with the Monetary Policy Report. Also, the situation regarding infections and reopening should be way clearer.

                              Here are some previews:

                              Sterling is currently the slightly better performer among European majors. There is prospect of further rally if BoE delivers some hawkish votings. In particular, GBP/CHF’s rebound from 1.2579 resumed by breaking 1.2817 resistance this week. The development also argues that correction from 1.3070 has completed after struggling around 55 day EMA.

                              Further rise is now in favor as long as 1.2749 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3070 to 1.2579 at 1.2882 will pave the way to retest 1.3070 high, and possibly resume whole up trend from 1.1107.

                              BoC expected to stand pat, Fed expected to cut

                                USD/CAD recovers mildly ahead of 1.3016 today, as markets await BoC and FOMC rate decisions. BoC is widely expected to keep policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. Upside surprise in GDP growth and solid inflation offered BoC much room to stand on the sideline. Additionally, the newly-elected government’s fiscal stimulus is expected to support the economy in the coming year. There is no imminent need for the central bank to act in either direction. Ongoing trade war uncertainty and global economic slowdown would be the main focuses of policy makers ahead, and that could determine whether BoC needs to do anything next year.

                                On the other hand, markets are generally expecting Fed to cut interest rate again by -25bps to 1.50-1.75% today. Fed fund futures are pricing in 97.8% chance for that. The main question is whether chair Jerome Powell will signal that it’s the end of the so called “mid-cycle adjustment”. Such message could also be reflected in changes in the forward guidance too. There is prospect of a Dollar rebound should Fed affirm this message.

                                Here are some suggested readings on Fed and BoC:

                                Nikkei lost -2.2% on risk aversion, heading back to 26k first

                                  Markets are generally staying in risk-off mode today as there is no sign of de-escalation in Russia-Ukraine situation. Nikkei tumbled sharply by -616.49 pts, or -2.23%, to close at 27079.59.

                                  Near term bearishness in Nikkei remains after rejection by 55 day EMA. The choppy decline from 30795.77 is in progress for retesting 26044.52 low. But, the major line of defense is at 38.2% retracement of 16358.9 to 30795.77 at 25280.61. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound.

                                  However, the rejection by 55 week EMA is also a medium term bearish sign, which argues that the fall from 30795.77, as a correction to the up trend from 16358.19, might last longer than originally expected. Indeed, sustained break of 25280.61 could send Nikkei further to the zone between 50% retracement at 23576.98 and 61.8% retracement at 21873.34 before bottoming.

                                  Record highs on the horizon for DOW as market awaits FOMC dot plot

                                    US stock market closed generally higher overnight. In particular, DOW now stands just about 1% shy of its all-time high after recent rally. The current uptrend in major indexes is primarily fueled by an increasing speculation among investors that Fed would start cutting interest rates. Today’s FOMC statement and the accompanying “dot plot” are eagerly awaited, as any signs of a dovish stance or indications of policy easing could further fuel the market’s ascent, potentially catapulting the DOW to new record heights before year-end.

                                    Expectations are leaning overwhelmingly towards Fed maintaining federal funds rate at the 5.25-5.50% range at today’s meeting. Should Fed decide to keep rates unchanged, it would mark the third successive meeting without a rate hike. Such a decision could be interpreted as a signal that the Fed views its cycle of rate hikes as effectively complete. This sentiment is likely to be mirrored in the revised dot plot, which is anticipated to exclude the rate increase previously suggested for this year. There remains, however, a much less probable scenario where the median dots may indicate a postponed hike.

                                    Traders are aggressively pricing in the prospect of Fed beginning its rate-cutting cycle as early as May, with the odds exceeding 50%, as indicated by fed funds futures. Moreover, there’s a similar probability assigned to the expectation of a cumulative one percent rate cut by the end of 2024. It’s important to note, however, that market predictions often tend to be rather unreliable for periods extending beyond one or two months.

                                    As for DOW, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 36010.85 support holds. Next target is 36952.65 record high. Clearing of this record high would pave the way to 100% projection of 28660.94 to 34712.28 from 32327.20 at 38378.54.

                                    Canada’s GDP expands 0.6% mom in Jan, above exp 0.4% mom

                                      Canada’s GDP grew 0.6% mom in January, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Services-producing industries increased 0.7% mom. Goods-producing industries were up 0.2% mom. Overall, there was broad-based growth with 18 of 20 sectors increasing.

                                      Advance information indicates that GDP rose 0.4% mom in February. Broad-based increases, with main contributions from mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, manufacturing, and finance and insurance, were partially offset by decreases in utilities.

                                      Full Canada GDP release here.

                                      Fed projections GDP to contract -6.5% in 2020, unemployment rate to end at 9.3%

                                        In the new economic projections (median), Fed expects GDP to contract -6.5% in 2020, then rebound by 5.0% in 2021, below slowing to 3.5% in 2022. Unemployment rate is expected to hit 9.3% by the end the of year, then dropped back to 6.5% at 2021 end, and 5.5% in 2022 end. Core PCE inflation is projected to be at 1.0% by 2020 year end, then gradually climb back to 1.5% in 2021 end, and 1.7% in 2022 end. Federal funds rates are expected to stay at 0.1%, i.e. the current target range, throughout projection horizon till 2022.

                                        As for the dot plot, the vast majority of policymakers expected interest rate to stay at 0.00-0.25% till end of 2022. Only two members expected a hike in 2022, one to 0.25-0.50%, and another to 1.00-1.25%.

                                        Full projections.

                                        BoE Broadbent: Judgements on labor market frictions dissipating uncertain

                                          Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said BoE will pay attention to second-round effects of inflation on wages. He added, “the judgements about labour market frictions dissipating are probably more uncertain than those on the trade and goods side of things”.

                                          At the same event, Governor Andrew Bailey also said labor shortages is the biggest topic in his discussions with businesses recently.