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Joachim Nagel named as new Bundesbank president

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    German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said said today that he and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz proposed Joachim Nagel as the new Bundesbank President. Nagel, a former Bundesbank board member, is expected to take over on January 1 from Jens Weidmann.

    Linder said on twitter, “In view of inflation risks, the importance of a stability-oriented monetary policy is growing. He is an experienced personality who ensures the continuity of #Bundesbank”.

    “Nagel can be trusted to continue the German Bundesbank tradition in the debates in the ECB,” Friedrich Heinemann, an expert at the ZEW economic research institute hailed. “He has extensive monetary policy and financial expertise, which is essential for today’s complex monetary policy decisions.”

    BoJ Kuroda: Must consider positive and side effects of loose monetary policy in balanced manner

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      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today that the central bank is now at a stage that the benefits and side-effects of the ultra-loose monetary policy must be considered in a “balanced manner”. He pointed to strengthening in the recovery and pickup in wages and prices. But he also echoed the July meeting minutes that it takes more time than expected to achieve the 2% inflation target.

      Kuroda added that “under such a fairly complex economic and price situation, monetary policy must take into account various developments in a comprehensive manner”. And, “this means that, in continuing with powerful monetary easing, we now need to consider both its positive effects and side-effects in a balanced manner.”

      Meanwhile, he maintained the pledge that “BOJ will continue to make its utmost efforts to firmly support corporate activity, taking into account economic, price and financial developments.”

      Dallas Fed Kaplan: Growth will fall below 2% after next year

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        Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan expect solid growth in the US this year, with falling unemployment and rising wages. According to him, unemployment rate could fall further to as low as 3.7%. However, he warned of sluggish growth ahead.

        He noted that “because the near-term outlook for GDP growth is positive, this may lull observers into believing we are on a path to sustained improvement in the economic performance of the U.S. economy.” However, as the effect of tax cut and budget stimulus fade, also as Fed normalizes monetary policy, growth will fall below 2% after next year.

        He added that “unless Congress and the White House initiate structural reforms that improve workforce growth, education and skill levels of our labor force, moderate the expected path of government debt growth, and adopts policies that allow us to capture the opportunities provided by globalization, we are likely to see sluggish rates of GDP growth in the medium and longer term,”

        Also, Kaplan pointed out that business are lacking pricing power for the moment. He noted “pricing power of businesses is more limited than we’re historically accustomed to seeing at this stage in an economic expansion.” And that could limit inflation and inflation expectations.

        WTO Good Trade Barometer jumped to 100.7, but growth likely to slow in Q4

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          WTO said it’s Good Trade Barometer marked a dramatic improvement to 100.7. It hit a low at 84.5 back in August, ” which reflected collapsing trade and output in the second quarter as lockdowns and travel restrictions were employed to fight the virus”.

          It added, “the latest reading indicates a strong rebound in trade in the third quarter as lockdowns were eased, but growth is likely to slow in the fourth quarter as pent-up demand is exhausted and inventory restocking is completed.”.

          However, trade-related uncertainty “remains high” with a seconGd wave of pandemic underway in Europe and North America. But progress has been reported in vaccine development as a “more positive note”.

          Full release here.

          Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 48.4, ugly combination of recession and inflation

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            Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 48.4 in September, down from August’s 49.6. That’s also a 27-month low. Looking at some member states, France PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 47.7, a 28-month low. Germany was finalized at 47.8, a 27-month low. Greece (49.7), the Netherlands (49.0), Spain (49.0), Austria (48.8) and Italy (48.3) were all in contraction, while Ireland (51.5) was in expansion.

            Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The ugly combination of a manufacturing sector in recession and rising inflationary pressures will add further to concerns about the outlook for the eurozone economy… Excluding the initial pandemic lockdowns, eurozone manufacturers have not seen a collapse of demand and production on this scale since the height of the global financial crisis in early-2009.

            Full release here.

             

            BoJ Wakatabe warned of heightening uncertainties from coronavirus, a cruise liner quarantined in Yokohama

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              BoJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe warned of the “heightening uncertainties” regarding the spread of China’s coronavirus on the global economy. BoJ should scrutinize the impact of the outbreak on its economic forecasts. For now, downside risks remain. He reiterated the usual pledge that the central bank ” won’t hesitate to take additional easing steps if momentum for hitting price goal is lost.”

              In Japan’s port of Yokohama, a cruise liner with 3700 passengers was quarantined yesterday. Health screened started after a Hong Kong passenger was tested positive for the coronavirus. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said authorities would decide whether to let people leave the ship after all tests are completed.

              Eurozone unemployment rate unchanged at 7.5%, lowest since 2008

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                Eurozone unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.5%, above expectation of 7.4%. That’s still the lowest level since July 2008. EU28 unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3%, lowest since January 2000.

                Among the Member States, the lowest unemployment rates in September 2019 were recorded in Czechia (2.1%) and Germany (3.1%). The highest unemployment rates were observed in Greece (16.9% in July 2019) and Spain (14.2%).

                Full release here.

                Swiss SECO consumer climate dropped to -27 in Q2, marked weakening of sentiment

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                  Swiss SECO consumer climate dropped sharply from -4 to -27 in Q2, well below expectation of -15. That’s was the biggest decline since the onset of the pandemic, and the reading was below long-term average of -5. Looking at some details, the expected economic development index dropped from 21 to -31. Expected financial situation dropped from -3 to -25. Major purchases index dropped further from -23 to -31.

                  SECO said: “The survey from April shows a marked weakening of consumer sentiment. In particular, consumers’ outlook for the general economic situation has turned far more pessimistic. Households are feeling the strain as prices continue to rise. Meanwhile, the situation on the labour market is again being viewed as more positive. ”

                  Full release here.

                  CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY recover as Yen weakens

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                    Yen trades broadly lower today following rebound in benchmark US and European yields. CAD/JPY is one of the top movers for the day. It’s possible that whole corrective pattern from 110.87 has completed with three waves down to 104.06. Break of 106.70 resistance, and sustained trading above 55 day EMA will affirm this case, and bring further rise to retest 110.33/110.87 resistance zone.

                    AUD/JPY also rises mildly today but stays well below 95.73 resistance. Firm break there will affirm the case that pull back from 99.32 has completed at 90.81. Rise form 90.81 should then resume and target a test on 99.32 high.

                    Dollar dives after ISM non-manufacturing dropped sharply to 52.6

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                      ActionForex.com
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                      Dollar dives notably after poor services data from US. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.6 in September, down from 56.4, and missed expectation of 55.1. Looking at some details, Production dropped -6.3 to 55.2. New Orders dropped -6.6 to 53.7. Employment dropped -2.7 to 50.3. Prices, on the other hand, rose 1.8 to 60.0.

                      ISM said : “According to the NMI, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector pulled back after reflecting strong growth in August. The respondents are mostly concerned about tariffs, labor resources and the direction of the economy.”

                      Full release here.

                      Canada CPI slowed to 2.2%, retail sales contracted, CAD dives as BoC hike in question

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                        Canadian Dollar dives notably after a set of much weaker than expected data.

                        Headline retail sales dropped -0.1% mom in August versus expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-auto sales dropped -0.4% mom versus expectation of -0.2% mom.

                        Headline CPI dropped sharply by -0.4% mom in September versus expectation of -0.1% mom. Annually, CPI slowed to 2.2% yoy, down from 2.8% yoy and missed expectation of 2.9% yoy.

                        CPI core common slowed to 1.9% yoy, down from 2.0% yoy. CPI core median slowed to 2.0% yoy, down from 2.1% yoy. CPI core trim slowed to 2.1% yoy, down from 2.2% yoy.

                        The set of data, in particular the sharp fall in CPI, raises the important question of whether BoC is still going to hike next week on October 24.

                        Full CPI and retail sales release.

                        Canada retail sales dropped -1.1% mom in Jan, second monthly decline

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                          ActionForex.com
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                          Canada retail sales dropped -1.1% mom to CAD 52.5B in January, better than expectation of -2.5% mom. That’s nonetheless, still the second consecutive month of decline. Sales contracted in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 39.4% of retail sales. Core retail sales, excluding gasoline, and motor vehicles and parts, also posted their second consecutive decline, by -1.4%.

                          Full release here.

                          US NFP grows 143k, wages growth strong

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                            US non-farm payroll job growth fell short of expectations but wage growth exceeding forecasts. Employers added 143k jobs, missing the 169k estimate and coming in below the 2024 monthly average of 166k. However, the downward surprise was offset by a significant upward revision to December’s number, which was adjusted from 256k to 307k.

                            Unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.1% to 4.0%. At the same time, the labor force participation rate ticked slightly higher to 62.6%, reinforcing signs of a still-active workforce. While the decline in headline job creation might signal a cooling labor market, the improvement in unemployment suggests that the slowdown is not yet severe.

                            The standout data point in the report was wage growth, with average hourly earnings surging 0.5% mom, surpassing the expected 0.3% mom increase. On an annual basis, wages rose 4.1% yoy, a sign that businesses are still competing for workers despite moderation in hiring.

                            Full US non-farm payrolls release here.

                            NZ ANZ business confidence falls to 62.3, demand recovery offers glimmers of hope

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                              ActionForex.com
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                              New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index fell to 62.3 in December, down from 64.9. However, some subindices showed encouraging signs of recovery. The own activity outlook improved to 50.3 from 48.0, while profit expectations rose significantly to 31.1 from 26.5. Investment intentions also jumped to 21.5 from 18.0, signaling increased business willingness to allocate resources despite a challenging environment.

                              However, labor market metrics were mixed, with employment intentions slipping slightly from 14.7 to 14.3. At the same time, cost pressures intensified sharply, as cost expectations surged to 70.1 from 62.9, and wage expectations jumped from 75.5 to 79.2. Price intentions remained steady at 42.7, slightly up from 42.2, while inflation expectations ticked higher to 2.63%, up from 2.53%, reflecting ongoing pricing pressures.

                              ANZ noted that while the survey results indicate signs of recovering demand, they come against the backdrop of this morning’s weak Q3 GDP figures, which showed a sharp contraction. The low bar set by the GDP downturn provides room for optimism if demand continues to improve. However, rising cost and wage pressures could complicate the outlook, especially for inflation management.

                              Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

                              BusinessNZ manufacturing PMI dropped to 53.4, NZD/JPY extending dive

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                                ActionForex.com
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                                New Zealand Business NZ manufacturing PMI dropped to 53.4 in February, down from 54.4.

                                Sub-indices:-

                                • Production up 0.4 to 53.9
                                • Employment up 3.3 to 54.8
                                • New orders up 5.1 to 54.8
                                • Deliveries up 2.9 to 52.7
                                • Finished stocks down -1 to 51.1

                                Comments from Bank of New Zealand economist Doug Steel:-

                                • “The generally slower PMI suggests we shouldn’t expect Q1 manufacturing GDP to be much different from the flat result recorded in yesterday’s official figures for Q4,”
                                • “Early livestock culling on account of adverse weather seemed to boost Q4 manufacturing activity but will have the opposite effect through early 2018 given New Year rains.”
                                • “It all suggests primary processing will be a drag on manufacturing activity early in 2018,”

                                Comments from Business NZ manufacturing executive director Catherine Beard:-

                                • Pace of expansion had levelled off in recent months
                                • “noted the sluggish start to the year with a dip in new orders being a common message.”

                                Sharp fall in NZD/JPY this week suggests that rebound from 75.92 has completed at 78.61. The cross was held by 55 day EMA slightly below 50% retracement of 81.55 to 75.92. For the near term, it’s going to revisit key support level around 75.65/75.92. It remains to be seen if there is enough selling to push through this key support zone. But outlook is not looking good.

                                US durable goods orders rise 0.1% mom, ex-transport orders down -0.1% mom

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                                  ActionForex.com
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                                  US durable goods orders rose 0.1% mom to USD 283.1B in May, above expectation of -0.1% mom. Ex-transport orders fell -0.1% mom to 187.7B, below expectation of 0.1% mom. Ex-defense orders fell -0.2% mom to USD 266.1B. Transportation equipment rose 0.6% mom to USD 95.4B.

                                  Full US durable goods orders release here.

                                  ECB Previews: Growth and inflation projection downgrade expected, maybe forward guidance too

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                                    ActionForex.com
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                                    ECB rate decision and press conference will be the major focus today. No change in monetary policy is expected. The key interest rate should be held at 0.00%, with marginal lending facility rate at 0.25% and deposit facility rate at -0.40% respectively.

                                    Since Q4 last year, economic outlook in Eurozone deteriorated and data released since January revealed little improvements. OECD downgraded Eurozone growth forecasts sharply lower from 1.8% in 2019 to just 1.0%. Most notably, Germany growth forecast was downgraded from 1.6% to just 0.7% in 2019. Italy is projected to contract -0.2% in 2019, revised down from 0.9% growth. There is a large chance for ECB to revised down both growth and inflation forecasts in the new staff projections to be published today.

                                    On forward guidance, ECB adopted the stance that interest rates will remain at present level “at least through the summer of 2019”. There is a chance for ECB to extend the duration to at least “through the end of 2019” without losing flexibility nor precision. It’s good timing to do so with new economic projections. On new TLTROs, comments from ECB officials appear to suggests that they’re still in discussion. thus, it’s unlikely to have any formal announcement today.

                                    More previews on ECB:

                                    UK PMI manufacturing rose to 55.9, services rose to 49.9

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                                      ActionForex.com
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                                      UK PMI Manufacturing rose to 57.3, up from 55.6, above expectation of 55.9, 37-month high. PMI Services rose to 49.9, up from 47.6, below expectation of 50.5. PMI Composite rose to 50.7, up from 49.0.

                                      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The UK economy returned to growth in December after the lockdown-driven downturn seen in November, adding to signs that the hit to the economy from the second wave of virus infections has so far been far less harsh than the first wave in the spring…. Business optimism about the year ahead also remained buoyant, reflecting the light at the end of the tunnel created by the roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines. Optimism waned slightly compared to November, however, largely due to rising concerns over a no-deal Brexit.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      BoJ delivers expected rate hike, upgrades core inflation forecasts

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                                        BoJ raised its uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25bps to 0.50% as widely expected, marking the highest level since 2008. The decision, made by an 8-1 vote, saw dissent from board member Nakamura Toyoaki, who advocated for a delay until March.

                                        In the new economic projections, core CPI forecasts were significantly revised upward from 1.9% to 2.4% for fiscal 2025, and slightly from 1.9% to 2.0% for fiscal 2026. Core-core CPI (excluding energy and fresh food) forecast was also raised from 1.9% to 2.1% for fiscal 2025, remaining unchanged at 2.1% for fiscal 2026. Real GDP growth projections were left steady at 1.1% for fiscal 2025 and 1.0% for fiscal 2026.

                                        At the post-meeting press conference, Governor Kazuo Ueda downplayed the sharp inflation forecast revisions, stating, “The rise in underlying inflation is moderate. I don’t think we are seriously behind the curve in dealing with inflation.”

                                        He reiterated the importance of a gradual approach to policy adjustments, and there no “preset idea” on the timing and pace of rate hikes. He also highlighted the estimated neutral range of 1%-2.5%, emphasizing that the current rate of 0.5% still has “some distance” to reach neutral.

                                        Also released, CPI core (ex-food) jumped from 2.7% yoy to 3.0% yoy in December, marking the highest rate in 16 months. CPI core-core (ex-food & energy) was unchanged at 2.4% yoy. Headline CPI rose from 2.9% yoy to 3.6% yoy.

                                        Full BoJ statement and outlook for economic and prices.

                                        Australia retail sales rose 1.6% mom to new record in Mar

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                                          ActionForex.com
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                                          Australia retail sales rose 1.6% mom to new record AUD 33.6B in March, well above expectation of 0.5% mom. Over the 12-month period, sales rose 9.4% yoy.

                                          Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics, Ben James, said the result was up 0.8% on the previous record level set in November 2021. This follows a 1.8% rise in February 2022, a 1.6% rise in January 2022 and a fall of -4.1% in December 2021.

                                          “Rising prices, combined with the continued easing of restrictions across the country has led to rises in turnover in all three months of the March quarter.

                                          Full release here.

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