Australian Dollar recovers mildly after RBA left cash rate unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected. The accompanying statement is a tweaked a bit further to the dovish side. The central bank noted that “it is likely to take longer than earlier expected for inflation to return to 2 per cent.” Also, “it is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia”. But overall, the statement doesn’t alter expectations for one more rate cut this year, probably another in the first half of next year depending on development.
On the economy, RBA acknowledged that growth has been “lower than earlier expected” in first half. The central scenario is for growth to be at around 2.50% over 2019 and 2.75 over 2020. Consumption remains the main domestic uncertainty. Unemployment rate is expected to “decline over the next couple of years to around 5 percent”. And RBA reiterated that “Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.” Inflation is projected to stay a “a little under” 2% over 2020 and a little above 2% over 2021.
China condemns US deliberately destroying international order
In a strongly-worded editorial, the People’s Daily, China’s official newspaper, condemned that the US was “deliberately destroying international order”. The piece was published hours after US decision to designate China as currency manipulator, even though such issue was not mentioned. The editorial said the responsibility of big countries is to provide the world with stability and certainty. However, “some people in the United States do just the opposite”.
USD/CNH edged higher to 7.1399 earlier today but pulled back from there. It’s currently trading at 7.07, below yesterday’s close. There is sign that PBoC is looking at stem the free fall in Yuan. The general consensus remains that China wouldn’t want steep fall in Yuan exchange rate, which would trigger disastrous capital outflow and decline in asset prices. Instead, the Chinese government would likely prefer controlled depreciation.