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UK retail sales rose 0.2%, non-store retailing the largest positive contributor

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    ActionForex.com
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    UK retail sales including auto and fuel rose 0.2% mom 3.3% in July, above expectation of -0.2% mom, 2.5% yoy. Retail sales ex-auto and fuel rose 0.2% mom 2.9% yoy, above expectation of -0.2% mom, 2.3% yoy.

    Looking at the details, non-store retailing was the largest positive contributor on the month, with the amount spent and quantity bought contributing 0.6 and 0.7 percentage points respectively. In contrast, non-food stores were the largest negative contributor in July 2019, with the amount spent and quantity bought both at negative 0.6 percentage points.

    Full release here.

    Australia added 41.1k jobs, but unemployment rate stuck at 5.2%

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      ActionForex.com
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      Australia employment grew 41.1k in July, well above expectation of 14.2k. Full-time jobs rose 34.5k while part time jobs rose 6.7k. Unemployment rate was steady at 5.2%, matched expectations. Participation rate rose 0.1% to 66.1%.

      In seasonally adjusted terms, the largest increases in employment were in Queensland (up 19.9), New South Wales (up 13.0k), and Victoria (up 3.6k). The largest decrease was in Western Australia (down -4.2k). Unemployment rate increased in South Australia (up 0.9 pts to 6.9%) and Western Australia (up 0.2 pts to 5.9%), Decreases were recorded in Tasmania (down -0.8 pts to 6.0%), New South Wales (down -0.2 pts to 4.4%) and Queensland (down -0.1 pts to 6.4%), with Victoria recording no change.

      The better than expected job growth should keep RBA on sideline in September. However, unemployment continues to be stuck at 5.2%. There is no sign of falling towards RBA’s natural rate of 4.5%. The central bank will still need more easing ahead to push down unemployment rate so as to push up inflation to target.

      Full release here.

      RBA Debelle: Technology dispute could have larger impacts than tariffs

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        ActionForex.com
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        RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle said in a speech today that the direct effects of US-China tariffs “has not been all that large”. However, the larger impact has been the uncertainty generated by the dispute. The uncertainty takes “two forms”. Firstly, there was uncertainty about the “size and incidence” of tariffs. Secondly, it’s unsure how “technology dispute” will be resolved.

        Debelle also warned that “it is plausible that the effect of the technology dispute will be larger than that of the tariffs” And, “the technology dispute raises the possibility that any business involved in the technology production chain will have to choose between East and West rather than selling into a global market.”

        Also, he said current trade dispute would have a “large and long-lasting impact” on the “system of rules-based trade”. And, “The China–US dispute casts serious doubt on that. We can also see that manifest in the US–Europe trade issues, as well as those between South Korea and Japan.” Also, “trade is being used as the bargaining tool of choice, including for issues that don’t have much to do with trade.”

        Debelle’s full speech here.

        Trump puts human rights in Hong Kong as precondition to China trade deal

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          ActionForex.com
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          US President Donald Trump appeared to be putting human rights condition in Hong Kong as a prerequisite of a trade deal with China. He tweeted that “Of course China wants to make a deal. Let them work humanely with Hong Kong first!” Trump repeated his usual praise of Chinese President Xi Jinping as a “great leader”, and a good man in a “tough business. He even said he has “ZERO doubt” Xi wanted to “quickly and humanely” solve the Hong Kong problem. And he even called Xi for a “personal meeting” on the issue.

          Trump’s comment came after State Department spokeswoman said US was “deeply concerned” about reports of paramilitary movements along the Hong Kong border. Additionally, she urged the Hong Kong government to respect “freedoms of speech and peaceful assembly”. She also noted that recent protests reflected “broad and legitimate concerns about the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy.” Further, “the continued erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy puts at risk its long-established special status in international affairs,” she said.

          US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also issued a statement earlier this week, warning: “The escalating violence and use of force perpetrated against the Hong Kong protestors is extremely alarming. The pro-Beijing Chief Executive and the Hong Kong police forces must immediately cease the aggression and abuse being perpetrated against their own people.

          UN Human Rights Office also said in a statement that there were “credible evidence of law enforcement officials employing less-lethal weapons in ways that are prohibited by international norms and standards” in handing the protests in Hong Kong that lasted for more than two months. For example, “officials can be seen firing tear gas canisters into crowded, enclosed areas and directly at individual protesters on multiple occasions, creating a considerable risk of death or serious injury.”. UNHR also urged the Hong Kong Government to ensure “response by law enforcement officials to any violence that may take place is proportionate and in conformity with international standards on the use of force, including the principles of necessity and proportionality.”

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          DOW down more than 2% on recession fear, 30-year yield at record low

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            ActionForex.com
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            US stocks opened sharply lower today and remains pressured at the time of writing. Currently DOW is down over -2.2%, below 25700 handle and broke yesterday’s low. The lift from delay in US tariffs on China was rather brief. Recession fears resurface, after big miss in Chinese data and GDP contraction in Germany in Q2.

            Considering DOW stays below 55 day EMA, further decline remains in favor through 25440.39, to resume the decline from 27398.68, to 2468.47 support and below.

            German 10-year yield hits new record low at -0.653 and drags down US yield too. 10-year yield is currently down -0.096 at 1.584. 30-year yield is down -0.096 at 2.041, after hitting new record low of 2.036 earlier in the session.

            Canada Freeland hints she won’t call China currency manipulator

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              ActionForex.com
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              Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland sounded like she didn’t think China is a currency manipulator in her comments today. She said in a news conference, “at a time of volatility in the global economy and volatility in the trading space, there can be a lot of explanations for why currencies fall and rise.”

              She also referred to IMF, as the body stood by its assessment on Yuan last week, that it’s largely in line with economic fundamentals. Freeland urged “people who are interested in an objective perspective” on the matter to note that assessment.

              US oil inventories rose 1.6m barrels, WTI mildly lower

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                ActionForex.com
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                US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.6m barrels in the week ending August 9, versus expectation of -2.5m barrels decline. At 440.5m barrels, crude oil inventories are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year.

                WTI weakens mildly after the release but remains in range of 50.43/60.93. WTI breached 50.64 support last week but quickly rebounded. However, as upside is limited by 55 day EMA so far, further decline remains in favor. Sustained break of 50.64 could pave the way back to 42.05 low.

                US Ross: Tariff delays not quid pro quo with China

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
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                  US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told CNBC that the tariff delay decision were not a trade ‘quid pro quo’ with China. He referred to the delay in 10% tariffs on some Chinese imports until December 15. Instead, it’s just because “nobody wants to take any chance of disrupting the Christmas season”.

                  Ross added that “we’ve been doing analysis since the hearings were announced by the USTR”. And, “even though they were only announced as being imposed recently, the analytical work began well before that.”

                  Germany Altmaier said can avoid recession with right measures, but government said no need

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                    ActionForex.com
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                    German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier warned that the -0.1% contraction in Q2 GDP was a “wake-up call and a warning signal”. He added that “the smouldering trade conflict is taking its toll — and export-focused German industry is feeling it especially keenly”.

                    Altmaier also emphasized “We are in a phase of economic weakness but not yet in recession. We can avoid that if we take the right measures.” However, Chancellor Angel Merkel’s spokesman said “the government does not currently see any need for further measures to stabilize the economy – the fiscal policy of the German government is already expansive.”

                    Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% in Q2, employment rose 0.2%

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
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                      Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q2, unchanged from Q1, matched expectations. Annually, GDP rose 1.1%. For EU 28, GDP grew 0.2% qoq, 1.3% yoy. Eurozone employment rose 0.2% qoq, below expectation of 0.3%. EU28 employment rose 0.2% qoq.

                      Also released, Eurozone industrial production dropped -1.6% mom in May, worse than expectation of -1.4% mom. Production of capital goods fell by 4.0%, non-durable consumer goods by 2.8%, durable consumer goods by 1.2%,intermediate goods by 0.8% and energy by 0.2%

                      UK CPI rose to 2.1%, core CPI rose to 1.9%

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
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                        UK CPI accelerated to 2.1% yoy in July, up from 2.0% yoy and beat expectation of 1.9% yoy. Core CPI also rose to 1.9% yoy, up from 1.8% yoy and beat expectation of 1.8% yoy. Also from UK, RPI slowed to 2.8% yoy, down from 2.9% yoy, matched expectations.

                        PPI input rose 0.9% mom, 1.3% yoy, above expectation of 0.6% mom, 0.3% yoy. PPI output rose 0.3% mom, 1.8% yoy, above expectation of 0.1% mom, 1.7% yoy. PPI output core rose 0.4% mom, 2.0% yoy, above expectation of 0.1% mom, 1.7% yoy. House price index rose 0.9% yoy in June, down from 1.2% yoy, missed expectation of 1.0% yoy.

                        German GDP contracted -0.1% in Q2, 10-year yield hits new record low

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
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                          German GDP contracted -0.1% qoq in Q2, matched expectations. There were positive contributions from domestic demand, with growth in household final consumption and government final consumption. However, gross fixed capital formation in construction declined. Additionally, development of foreign trade slowed down economic growth because exports recorded a stronger quarter-on-quarter decrease than imports.

                          Full release here.

                          German 10-year yield drops to new record low at -0.623 and remains weak for now.

                          China industrial production slowed to 4.8%, lowest in 17 year, other data missed too

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            In July, industrial production grew merely 4.8% yoy, down from 6.3% yoy and missed expectation of 6.0% yoy. It’s also the slowest growth rate in more than 17 years. Retail sales grew 7.6% yoy, down from 9.8% yoy and missed expectation of 8.6% yoy. Fixed assets investment ex rural grew 5.7% yoy, down from 5.8% yoy and missed expectation of 5.9% yoy. Surveyed unemployment rate rose from 5.1% to 5.3%.

                            The National Bureau of Statistics of China insisted in a statement that the national economy performed “within the reasonable range” and “sustained generally stable growth while making further progress.” NBS spokesmen Liu Aihua also said the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war on China’s economy is controllable

                            USD/CNH dropped sharply yesterday as Yuan rebounded on news of delay in some US tariffs. But the Yuan quickly lost momentum on today’s big data misses. A short term top was formed after USD/CNH hit 61.8% projection of 6.235e to 6.9800 from 6.6699 at 7.1301, As long as 6.9620 resistance turned support holds, we’d expect recent uptrend to resume sooner or later. Break of 7.1394 will target 100% projection at 0.7414.

                            Australia wage price index rose 3.6% qoq, on the back of strong public sector growth

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              Australia Wage Price Index rose 3.6% qoq in Q2, but couldn’t reverse the -4.1% fall in Q1. Annually, Wage Price Index rose 2.3% yoy comparing to Q2 2018.

                              ABS Chief Economist, Bruce Hockman said: “Wage growth continues at a steady rate in the Australian economy on the back of strong public sector growth over the quarter. The most significant contribution to wage growth this quarter came from the public sector component of the health care and social assistance industry, where a number of large increases were recorded in Victoria under a plan to ensure wage parity with other states.”

                              Full release here.

                              Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence rose 3.6%, superficially a surprise

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence rose 3.6% to 100 in August, up from 96.5. Westpac said: “Superficially this result comes as somewhat of a surprise given that the survey was conducted against a turbulent backdrop with global financial markets roiled by escalating trade tensions between the US and China, the ASX down 3.4% and the AUD off 3¢ US since the July survey.” However, it’s came in the “aftermath” of the unexpected -4.7% fall in July, despite back-to-back RBA rate cuts. Also, there was political certainty restoration following the May Federal election.

                                Regarding RBA, Westpac expects the central bank to stand page in September, before delivering another -25bps rate cut in October. Also, there wold be a final -25bps move to take Cash Rate to 0.50% in February. Westpac noted that the “signals from the RBA are quite clear”. And, In its recent Statement on Monetary Policy the RBA lowered its forecasts for inflation, wages and growth, while lifting its forecasts for the unemployment rate. Those forecasts were despite basing them on the technical assumption of adopting market pricing, which anticipates two more rate cuts.

                                Full release here.

                                Yen recovers after limited loss as markets digest delay of US tariffs on China

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  Asian markets open generally higher, following the strong rebound in US stocks overnight. Though, strength is relatively limited as none of the major indices are gaining over 1% at the time of writing. Yen is also paring some of yesterday’s losses and recover broadly. It would take more time to see the real implications of US announcement to delay some tariffs on Chinese imports. The move was generally well received by industry groups. But some analysts criticized that it’s merely an incremental positive sign. It’s too late and insufficient.

                                  In short, the tariffs on a 21-page list of products would be delayed until December, subject to further negotiations between US and China. Both sides are continuing telephone conversations in preparation for a meeting in Washington in September. According to Wells Fargo‘s estimation, the tariff delay involves around 60%, or roughly USD 155B worth of goods. The products range from cellphones, laptops and other consumer goods including  baby monitors and strollers, microwaves, instant print cameras, doorbells, high chairs, musical instruments, ketchup dispensers, baby diapers, fireworks, sleeping bags, nativity scenes, fishing reels, paint rollers and food products.

                                  In response to the news, Retail Industry Leaders Association said “removing some products from the list and delaying additional 10% tariffs on other products, such as toys, consumer electronics, apparel and footwear, until Dec. 15 is welcome news as it will mitigate some pain for consumers through the holiday season.”

                                  The Consumer Technology Association also welcomed the the delay on some items, but added: “Next month, we’ll begin to pay more for some of our favorite tech devices – including TVs, smart speakers and desktop computers. The administration should permanently remove these harmful tariffs and find another way to hold China accountable for its unfair trading practices.”

                                  Stock surges, yen dives as US delay some new tariffs on China to Dec 15

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    US stocks surge sharply while Yen dives after US Trade Representative announced to delay new tariffs on some Chinese products to December 15.

                                    The 10% tariffs on approximately USD 300B of Chinese products will still take effect on September 1. However, certain products are removed from the list based on “health, safety, national security and other factors”.

                                    Also, tariffs on products including cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing, will be delayed to December 15.

                                    DOW rises strongly after the release and is currently up more than 1.5%. Though, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 26500, is needed to be the first indication of near term reversal. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor through last week’s low of 25440.39.

                                    US CPI accelerated to 1.8%, core up to 2.2%

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      US CPI rose 0.3% mom in July, matched expectations. Core CPI rose 0.3% mom, above expectations. Annually, CPI accelerated to 1.8% yoy, up from 1.6% yoy, beat expectation of 1.7% yoy. Core CPI accelerated to 2.2% yoy, up from 2.1% yoy and beat expectation of 2.1% yoy.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Trump said to request Japanese PM Abe to buy farm products

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        Japanese Kyodo news agency reported that Trump is urging Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to increase purchase of US agricultural products, worthing several hundred millions USD including transport costs.

                                        The request came as US and Japan are crafting out a broad trade agreement, reportedly by September. Also, it came as China halted its own purchase of US farm goods as trade tensions escalated recently.

                                        Kyodo also said that Trump has specifically asked Japan to by products such as soybeans and wheat. Yet, he preferred such purchases to be outside of the framework of the current trade talks. Japan government is said to be considering its own responses. And one proposal was to by such farm products as food support for Africa.

                                        German ZEW dropped to -44.1, significant deterioration in outlook

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          German ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped to -44.1 in August, down from -24.5 and missed expectation of -28.0. That’s the lowest level sine December 2011, and well below long term average of 21.6. Current Situation Index dropped to -13.5, down from -1.1 and missed expectation of -5.9. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped to -43.6, down from -20.3, missed expectation of -21.7. Eurozone Current Situation dropped -3.9 pts to -14.5.

                                          “The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment points to a significant deterioration in the outlook for the German economy. The most recent escalation in the trade dispute between the US and China, the risk of competitive devaluations, and the increased likelihood of a no-deal Brexit place additional pressure on the already weak economic growth. This will most likely put a further strain on the development of German exports and industrial production,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.

                                          Full release here.

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