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CADJPY: ⬇️ Sell

•  CADJPY reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to support level 104.00

CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance area between the pivotal resistance level 106.00 (which has been reversing the price from March), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from January.

The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the previous short-term correction 2.

Given the strength of the resistance level 106.00 and the daily downtrend, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 104.00.

Bitcoin: ⬆️ Buy

• Bitcoin broke daily down channel
• Likely to rise to resistance level 110,000.00

Bitcoin cryptocurrency recently broke the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from May (which encloses the previous ABC correction 2 from the end of May).

The breakout of this down channel accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of April.

Given the clear daily uptrend, Bitcoin cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 110,000.00 (which reversed the price in January and May) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 115000.00.

BTCUSD rises for the fourth consecutive day, extending recovery from last week’s double rejection just above psychological 100K.

Bitcoin received fresh boost from renewed risk appetite, as markets feel relief on start of US-China trade talks and expect positive outcome, that continues to fuel positive sentiment.

The pair rose over 1.5% until early US session on Monday and hit over 61.8% retracement of pullback from new all-time high (112017) to 100378 (correction low) that further improves near term picture.

Daily MA returned to full bullish setup, with ascending and thickening daily cloud continuing to underpin the action, though a warning from overbought stochastic and 14-d momentum still holding just under the centreline, to be considered.

Dily close above broken Fibo 50% and daily Kijun-sen (106198) is minimum requirement to keep fresh bulls intact for attack at 109270 (Fibo 76.4%) and psychological 110K target in extension.

Res: 108966; 109297; 110000; 110802
Sup: 106572; 106198; 104854; 103162

WTI oil kept firm tone and rose to new multi-week high on Monday, in extension of Friday’s 2.5% advance.

Prevailing positive sentiment on growing hopes for a deal in US-China trade talks and subsequent rise in oil demand continues to inflate oil prices.

The contract was up 5.7% last week, with Friday’s close above significant technical barriers at $63.69/64.12 (50% retracement of $72.27/$55.12 / daily cloud c top), generating fresh bullish signals.

Predominantly bullish daily studies contribute to positive near term outlook, but overbought conditions warning that bulls may pause for consolidation before accelerating again.

Immediate target lays at $65.00 (psychological), followed by $65.72 (Fibo 61.8%), with cloud top (currently at $63.69) to ideally contain dips and keep near term bias with bulls.

Caution on dip and close within daily cloud, with stronger bearish signal to be expected on break of daily Tenkan-sen ($62.47).

Res: 65.09; 65.72; 66.00; 66.43.
Sup: 63.69; 62.80; 62.47; 62.00.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3494; (P) 1.3540; (R1) 1.3571; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.3414 support holds. Above 1.3615 will target 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.3414 support should confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction to 1.3138 support instead.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2913) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8191; (P) 0.8220; (R1) 0.8248; More….

Outlook in USD/CHF is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 0.8038 are seen as a corrective pattern to decline from 0.9200. While fall from 0.8475 might extend lower, downside should be contained by 0.8038 to bring rebound. Break of 0.8436 resistance will suggest that it's already in the third leg of the correction, and target 0.8475.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8696) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.77; (P) 144.43; (R1) 145.50; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, above 146.27 resistance will argue that price actions from 148.64 has completed as a corrective pattern. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 148.64 resistance and above to resume the rebound from 139.87 low. However, firm break of 142.10 will bring retest of 139.87 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1359; (P) 1.1409; (R1) 1.1445; More...

No change in EUR/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 1.1572 are seen as a corrective pattern to rally from 1.0716. While rebound from 1.1064 might extend, strong resistance should emerge from 1.1572 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.1356 support will argue that the correction is already in the third leg, and target 1.1209 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0894) holds.

The cautious optimism in Asia failed to spill into European markets, as investors turned cautious ahead of today's US-China trade talks in London. While no one expects a sweeping resolution to the broader trade conflict, hopes are centered on incremental progress—particularly around rare earths.

Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council, struck a pragmatic tone in his remarks today, emphasizing the goal of securing tangible commitments from China on resuming critical mineral exports. Hassett stated that the meeting's purpose was to verify China's seriousness, aiming for "a short meeting with a big, strong handshake." He added that a mutual agreement could result in immediate easing of US export controls, clearing the path for further negotiations.

Meanwhile, parallel trade efforts are underway between the US and Japan. Japan’s top trade envoy, Ryosei Akazawa, is reportedly planning his fourth US trip in as many weeks to engage in a sixth round of ministerial talks. While the discussions are said to be progressing, Akazawa conceded that the two sides have yet to reach a consensus. The urgency is growing ahead of the upcoming G7 summit in Canada, where a leaders’ meeting between the US and Japan may be on the agenda.

In currency markets, Kiwi is leading gains today, followed by Aussie and Japanese Yen. On the other end, Swiss Franc is the weakest performer, trailed by Dollar and Euro. Sterling and Loonie are mixed in the middle.

On the metals front, a divergence is forming between Gold and Silver. Gold is continuing its retreat, while Silver remains on a firm upward path. Technically, further rise in Silver is expected as long as 34.40 support holds, with focus on 100% projection of 28.28 to 33.66 from 31.65 at 37.03. Decisive break there could prompt further acceleration to 161.8% projection at 40.35.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.24%. DAX is down -0.77% CAC is down -0.35%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.013 at 4.666. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.01 at 2.589. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.92%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.63%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.43%. FTSE rose 0.05%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.019 to 1.479.

ECB Kazimir: Likely at end of cuts, eyes summer data for fine-tuning

Slovak ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir signaled a possible end to the current easing cycle, writing in an opinion piece today that "we're nearly done with, if not already at the end of, the easing cycle."

While acknowledging the potential for weaker-than-expected economic growth in the eurozone, Kazimir emphasized the importance of staying focused on inflation to, which he warned could surprise to the upside.

Looking ahead, Kazimir stressed the need for flexibility, noting that "incoming data throughout the summer will provide a clearer picture and guide our decisions on whether further fine-tuning is needed."

China's CPI falls -0.1% yoy in May, negative for fourth month

China’s headline CPI stayed in negative territory for the fourth consecutive month in May, coming in at -0.1% yoy, slightly better than the expected -0.2% yoy.

The persistent softness in overall inflation was largely driven by a sharp -6.1% yoy decline in energy prices, which alone shaved off nearly half a percentage point from the annual CPI reading.

On a monthly basis, CPI fell -0.2% mom, with energy again dragging down the figure through a -1.7% mom decline.

In contrast, core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, rose to 0.6% yoy, the highest level since January.

Producer price pressures continue to weaken further, with PPI dropping to -3.3% yoy from -2.7% yoy previously, marking the deepest contraction in nearly two years. Wholesale prices have now been stuck in deflation since October 2022.

China’s trade surplus widens to USD 103.2B in May, US exports slump -34.5% yoy

China’s trade surplus widened to USD 103.2B in May, exceeding expectations of USD 101.3, even as headline export and import figures undershot forecasts. Exports rose 4.8% yoy, just shy of the 5.0% yoy consensus. Imports fell -3.4% yoy, a sharper drop than the anticipated -0.9% yoy.

Exports to the US plunged -34.5% yoy, highlighting the entrenched trade tensions despite Washington’s partial tariff rollback in April. However, the impact was cushioned by robust growth in exports to ASEAN (15% yoy), the European Union (12% yoy), and Africa (33% yoy).

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1359; (P) 1.1409; (R1) 1.1445; More...

No change in EUR/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 1.1572 are seen as a corrective pattern to rally from 1.0716. While rebound from 1.1064 might extend, strong resistance should emerge from 1.1572 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.1356 support will argue that the correction is already in the third leg, and target 1.1209 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0894) holds.