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Canada’s labor market delivered a sharp disappointment in March, with employment falling by -32.6k, well below expectations of a 10.4k gain.

This marked the first monthly job loss since January 2022 and was driven by a steep decline in full-time positions, which dropped by 62k. Employment rate dipped 0.2 percentage points to 60.9%.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7%, in line with expectations. Wage growth slowed to 3.6% yoy from 3.8% yoy in February.

Full Canada employment release here.

US labor market showed unexpected strength in March, with non-farm payrolls rising by 228k, well above the consensus estimate of 128k. Growth was also notably stronger than the prior 12-month average of 158k.

The robust job gains highlight continued resilience in hiring, even amid heightened uncertainty surrounding trade policies and financial conditions.

Unemployment rate ticked up slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, marking the upper end of its recent range, though the increase was accompanied by a modest uptick in labor force participation to 62.5%.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with expectations, suggesting that wage pressures remain steady.

Full US non-farm payroll release here.

WTI oil price remains in a steep fall for the second straight day and hits the lowest levels since December 2021 on Friday, after US tariffs rattled global markets and soured sentiment.

Unexpected decision of OPEC+ group to increase production above consensus from May, added to strong bearish outlook.

Oil prices fell around 11% in less than two days, on track for the worst week since the first week of October 2023.

Key longer-term supports at $62.42/$61.79 (lows of Dec/Aug 2021 that formed a higher base on monthly chart) are under increased pressure.

Firm break of these levels to signal further weakness with immediate target at $60.00 (psychological), loss of which to expose $53.87 (Fibo 61.8% of $6.52/$130.48 uptrend).

Bears show so far limited signs of fatigue despite recent massive losses, however oversold daily studies and Friday’s profit taking may keep bears on hold for some time.

According to current situation, upticks are likely to be limited and offer better levels to re-enter firmly bearish market.

Former base at $65.22/25 (Mar 5/11) act as resistance which should limit recovery action.

Res: 63.00; 64.49; 65.22; 65.98.
Sup: 62.00; 61.70; 60.86; 60.00.

The Japanese yen has extended its gains on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPYis trading at 145.44, down 0.52% on the day. The yen is trading at its strongest level since September 2024.

US nonfarm payrolls expected to drop

Investors are still digesting the massive losses sustained in the financial markets, but will have to shift and focus on today's US nonfarm payrolls. The market estimate stands at 135 thousand, lower than the February gain of 151 thousand. The US labor market has been softening at a gradual pace and the Fed is hoping that trend continues.

Federal Reserve policymakers were looking at two rate cuts this year, but President Trump's bombshell tariff announcement will force the Fed to re-examine its growth and inflation forecasts.

What can we expect from the Fed?

That is no simple question, as the tariffs have sent the equity markets tumbling and deep uncertainty hangs in the air. The tariffs will boost inflation but also dampen growth, making for a tricky balance for the Fed. The money markets expect a slower US economy to dictate rate policy rather than inflation and that could mean as many as four cuts in 2025 if the economy tips into a recession.

Japan's household spending recovered in February with a gain of 3.5% m/m, after a 4.5% decline in January. This crushed the market estimate of 0.5% and was the strongest pace of growth since March 2022. The Bank of Japan is keeping a close eye on consumption as it determines when to raise interest rates and it is unclear how the new US tariffs will affect consumer confidence and spending.

• Global recession risk has triggered a significant drop in oil prices.
• WTI crude is now facing a negative double whammy from weak external demand and excess supplies built up.
• WTI crude is now breaching below a key major range support at US$65.40.

Since our last publication, the price actions of West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) have staged the expected corrective rebound sequence and rallied by 7.2% to print an intraday high of US$72.48/barrel on 2 April (a whisker below the US$73.50 medium-term resistance highlighted in our report) before the announcement of “US Liberation Day” reciprocal trade tariffs.

The West Texas Oil CFD has shaped a significant bearish reversal ex-post “US Liberation Day”, and plummeted by 6% on 3 April, its worst daily loss since early September 2022.

Headwinds from weak demand and excess supply

Fig 1: EIA US crude oil inventories excluding SPR (y/y change) with WTI crude oil futures as of 28 Mar 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)

WTI crude has a negative double whammy hit caused by demand and supply factors. Firstly, the rising probability of a stagflation environment in the US has triggered a global recession alarm, in turn, weakening demand for oil as business activities slow down.

Secondly, OPEC+ producers have agreed to boost the cartel's oil output by 411,000 barrels per day next month, coupled with a recent lesser magnitude of drawdown of US crude oil inventories seen in the past three weeks that may add another layer of downside pressure in oil prices.

The growth of US crude oil inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) on a year-on-year basis has an indirect correlation with the movement of WTI crude oil, as build-up in oil inventories puts downside pressure on oil prices.

Since 13 December 2024, the drawn down of US crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) has slowed down from -5.11% y/y to -2.58% y/y as of 28 March 2025 based on data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) (see Fig 1).

US 65.40 key support is looking vulnerable

Fig 2: West Texas Oil CFD medium-term trend as of 4 Apr 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Current intraday price actions of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) have recorded a further drop of 3.2% on Friday, 4 April, and breached below the major “Descending Triangle” range support of US$65.40 at this time of writing (see Fig 2).

In addition, the daily MACD trend indicator has just flashed out a bearish crossover condition, and inched below its centreline, which increases the probability of a major bearish breakdown below the US$65.40 major range support.

A daily close below US$65.40 may trigger the start of a medium-term bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next medium-term support zone of US$$60.20/58.80.

However, a clearance above the US$72.50 medium-term pivotal resistance (also the key 200-day moving average) invalidates the bearish scenario to kickstart another round of choppy corrective rebound phase for the next medium-term resistances to come in at US$76.00 and US$80.30

The Canadian dollar has taken a break after an impressive three-day rally, in which the currency climbed about 2%. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4148, up 0.39%. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar touched 140.26, its strongest level since December.

US nonfarm payrolls expected to dip

The hottest financial news is understandably the wave of selling in the equity markets, but there are some key economic releases today as well. The US and Canada will both release the March employment report later today.

The US releases nonfarm payrolls, with the markets projecting a gain of 135 thousand, after a gain of 151 thousand in February. This would point to the US labor market cooling at a gradual pace, which suits the Federal Reserve just fine. The Fed will also be keeping a watchful eye on wage growth, which is expected to tick lower to 3.9% y/y from 4.0%. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%.

The employment landscape is uncertain, with the DOGE layoffs and newly-announced tariffs expected to dampen wage growth in the coming months.

Canada's employment is expected to improve slightly to 12 thousand, after a negligible gain of 1.1 thousand in February. Unemployment has been stubbornly high and is expected to inch up to 6.7% from 6.6%.

Canada vows retaliatory tariffs against US

US President Donald Trump's tariff bombshell on Wednesday did not impose new tariffs on Canada, but trade tensions continue to escalate between the two allies. Canada said it would mirror the US stance and impose a 25% tariff on all vehicles imported from the US that do not comply with the US-Canada-Mexico-Canada free trade deal. The US has promised to respond to any new tariffs against the US, which could mean a tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs between Canada and the US.

US/Canada Technical

• USD/CAD has pushed above resistance at 1.4088 and 141.26. The next resistance line is 1.4170
• 1.4044 and 1.4006 are the next support levels

USDJPY edged higher on Friday morning, showing a partial recovery of Thursday’s 2.1% drop (the biggest daily drop since 1 May 2024).

Long lower shadows of daily candles of today/Thursday) point to growing bids) although recovery is unlikely to accelerate as fundamentals remains favorable for safe haven Japanese yen.

Risk aversion is on the rise and continues to prompt traders into safety, while dollar remains under strong pressure from tariffs and hopes of more dovish Fed’s stance on interest rates, although the central bank will remain extremely cautious and base its future decisions on economic conditions.

Release of US March labor data will be key economic event today, with non-farm payrolls likely slowing in March, but forecasts point to still steady conditions and more negative impact from mass firing of public sector workers to likely show in coming months.

Fresh bears look for weekly close below broken pivots at 146.95/53 (Fibo 61.8% of 139.57/158.87/Mar 11 low respectively) to validate bearish signal (the pair is on track for a weekly loss of about 2.5%) and focus next targets at 144.13 (Fibo 76.4%) violation of which to unmask140.00/139.27 (psychological/Fibo 38.2% of larger 102.59/161.95 uptrend) in extension.

Initial resistance at 146.60 (Marr 11 former low / Fibo 23.6% of 153.20/145.18 bear-leg) holds for now and should ideally cap upticks.

Res: 146.60; 147.48; 148.19; 148.90.
Sup: 145.18; 144.13; 143.65; 142.97.

AUDUSD was sharply down during Asian / early European sessions on Friday, falling over 2% so far and being the top loser of the day.

The Ausie dollar remains under strong pressure from risk aversion that continue to weaken stocks and commodities, with stronger dollar on Friday morning, adding to negative near term outlook.

Today’s bearish acceleration has so far retraced over 61.8% of 0.6087/0.6408 and pressuring pivotal support at 0.6187 (Mar 4 low) with firm break here to generate fresh bearish signal.

Daily studies turned to full bearish configuration and contribute to growing risk of further losses (Australian dollar is on track for the biggest daily drop since 10 Apr 2024).

Broken daily cloud base at 0.6248 (also broken 50% retracement of 0.6087/0.6408) reverted to solid resistance which should cap upticks and keep bears in play.

We look for fresh signals from the US labor data (due later today).

Res: 0.6210; 0.6248; 0.6284; 0.6300.
Sup: 0.6187; 0.6163; 0.6131; 0.6100.

USD/JPY is at a six-month low near 145.57 on Friday after posting a 2% gain in the previous session.

Key factors driving the USD/JPY movement

US President Donald Trump’s sweeping duties have fuelled demand for safe-haven assets. This week, Trump announced a 10% base tariff on all imports, set to take effect on 5 April. Around 60 countries are expected to face higher duties, including China (54% tariff), the EU (20%), Japan (24%), India (27%) and Vietnam (46%).

The market reacted quickly and powerfully. A new wave of tariff measures signals potentially uncontained inflation and sluggish global GDP growth. At the same time, demand increased across the full spectrum of safe-haven assets, including the yen.

Statistics from Japan showed that personal spending fell less than expected in February, suggesting some resilience in the economy.

The 2025 baseline scenario suggests that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this year, although uncertainty surrounding global trade and domestic economic conditions casts a shadow over the outlook.

Technical outlook: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair has breached the 147.60 level to the downside and continues to form a wave towards the 144.76 level. The target is local. After reaching it, a correction to 147.60 is possible. Once the correction is complete, a further wave down to 144.12 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero level and is pointing sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around 147.60. Following the downside breakout, the development of the third wave is underway. The target is at 144.76. Once this is reached, a corrective wave is likely. The first correction target is at 146.06. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is below 50 and heading directly towards 20.

Conclusion

With trade war fears escalating and demand for safe-haven assets surging, USD/JPY remains under pressure. Technical indicators suggest further downside, though a short-term correction is possible. Traders should monitor 144.76 as the next key support, with BoJ policy signals and global trade developments likely to determine the pair’s next significant move.

Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) published in members area of the website. As our members know, Bitcoin is currently correcting its short-term cycle from the 76,612 low. In the following analysis, we will break down the Elliott Wave forecast and identify the key target area.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 04.02.2025

The pullback still looks incomplete at the moment. We count five waves down from the peak, suggesting we have only the first leg ((a)) of wave 2 which is unfolding as a Zig Zag pattern. As long as the price remains below 88760 peak , we anticipate another leg down as proposed on the chart.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 04.04.2025

The price has remained below the 88,760 peak, and the expected decline has followed. BTCUSD has yet to reach the extreme zone. There may be further short-term weakness, with potential support between 80,967 and 79,159. At this stage, we do not recommend selling.