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In our 28 January report, "Bitcoin Price Holds Above $100k. For Now?", we highlighted the heightened volatility surrounding Trump’s inauguration. We speculated that major market players might have capitalized on this surge to lock in profits from long positions, potentially preparing for a bearish market phase. Since then, Bitcoin's price has dropped by approximately 20%.

BTC/USD Chart Analysis Today

Fresh price data allows for a refined trend channel (marked in blue), capturing several bullish factors for cryptocurrency investors. These include capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and Trump’s fulfilled promise to establish a National Cryptocurrency Reserve.

However, Bitcoin is now testing the lower boundary of this critical channel. Notably, bulls have made two attempts to reclaim the uptrend:

→ The first attempt (marked by an arrow) took place on 11 March, but the $88,000 level proved to be strong resistance, pushing Bitcoin’s price back to the lower channel boundary.

→ The second attempt occurred this week but also appears unsuccessful, as the price once again failed to break above $88,000. BTC/USD has now retreated back to the lower boundary of the trend channel.

A long upper wick (marked by an arrow) signals bearish aggression, triggered by news of Trump’s tariffs. This development raises the risk of a bearish breakout from the long-term ascending channel.

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• US Nonfarm Payrolls data for March 2025 is released April 4th, with expected job growth of 135K-140K.
• Market reaction is heavily influenced by recent tariff announcements and expectations of Federal Reserve policy changes.
• Fed Chair Powell's speech following the data release is crucial for market direction and potential rate cuts.
• Technical analysis of Dow Jones shows bullish divergence, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) is oversold.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the non-farm payroll and jobs data for March 2025 on Friday, April 4th, 2025.

Job Market Expectations for February

Analysts are projecting a more subdued pace of job creation this time, with consensus estimates of 135K–140K new jobs added in March, down from February’s tally of 151K. The unemployment rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% month-over-month, maintaining an annual growth rate of 4.0%.

These expectations reflect concerns around economic headwinds, including trade-related uncertainties and inflation pressures stemming from recent global tariff disputes.

Key Estimates for the March Report:

• Nonfarm Payrolls: 135K–140K (consensus)
• Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (unchanged)
• Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.3%
• Labor Force Participation Rate: Consensus data not released, but prior levels stood at 62.4%.

Market reaction and implications of the data

Markets are no doubt still reeling and coming to terms with President Trump's liberation day tariff announcements. The US Dollar and equity markets have both faced significant selloffs with the Magnificent 7 Index now down over -30% from its all time high seen on December 18th.

The S&P 500 is down -7.5% year-to-date with large cap tech beyond bear market territory.

The impact of the tariff announcements also saw the Nasdaq 100 record its largest single-day point loss in HISTORY. The index lost a total of -1060 points and came just 1.5% away from triggering the first circuit breaker since March 2020.

Given the impact tariffs are having on markets and what we have seen in the lead up to the announcement, how important will the NFP and jobs data be?

This is where it gets intriguing to say the least. There is a school of thought that given recent developments the role of the Federal Reserve will be crucial moving forward. The uncertainties created by tariffs and potential slowdown of growth may be offset by Federal Reserve policy and rate cuts.

Another sign of this comes from the behavior of bond markets and the US dollar in the face of the recent selloff. Behavior suggests that markets are hoping the Federal Reserve will step in to provide relief by accelerating rate cuts to help absorb the shock.

After the jobs data today we have a speech by Fed Chair Powell which could prove crucial. If he speaks with more urgency, stock markets might stabilize. If not, more selling is likely. Either way, it seems rate cuts will happen sooner, leading to lower yields, higher bond prices, and a weaker dollar.

With that in mind, the NFP release today takes on a new dimension altogether.
Potential impact on the us dollar index (DXY), S&P 500 and Dow Jones (DJIA)

Here’s how the market might respond to different outcomes in March’s job numbers:

Potential Impact on the US Dollar, US Indices Based on the Data Released

Source: LSEG, TradingEconomics. Table Created by Zain Vawda

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is heavily oversold while indexes like the S&P and Dow Jones are also nearing similar territory. Given the strong bearish momentum caused by the tariff announcement, it's hard to see them bouncing back unless the upcoming NFP report significantly beats expectations.

Will that help alleviate growth fears and help the stock market as well or just the US Dollar? This and many questions will be what market participants grapple with heading into today's data releases.

I think we could get more clarity from Fed Chair Powell's remarks rather than the actual data print and this is where I will be keeping a close watch.

Technical Analysis - Dow Jones (DJIA)

Looking at the Dow Jones which is hovering just above oversold territory having printed fresh YTD lows yesterday.

The index has one silver lining in the face of the current market dynamics in that the technical picture does offer a sliver of hope.

There is bullish divergence in play on the Dow Jones daily chart as price makes lower lows, but the RSI makes higher lows. This can signal that the downward momentum is weakening, and a price reversal to the upside might be coming.

There is also the psychological 40000 level just hovering below the current price level. If this level is broken then the 39588 handle may provide support.

A recovery from here however may face resistance at 40537, 40738,41095 and 41400.

Of course, the countless dynamics at play and current sentiment remains tilted to further downside. Whether the NFP can arrest this slump remains to be seen.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, April 4, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Support

• 40231
• 40000
• 39588

Resistance

• 40537
• 41095
• 41400

The Nikkei (NKD) has been trending lower since its peak on July 8, 2024. We indicate this decline follows a “double three” Elliott Wave pattern, characterized by a series of distinct movements. After reaching that high, the index fell to 30,720, rebounded to 40,675, and is now progressing downward in a zigzag formation as the internal within “wave y.” The index dropped to 36,275, rose to 38,029 with intermediate fluctuations, and has since resumed its downward trajectory.

This ongoing move lower has already reached 33,525, followed by a recovery to 34,975. We anticipate the index will extend further downward to complete this phase. Afterwards, a temporary rally is expected to provide a correction before the next decline resumes. We anticipate the index will extend further downward to complete this phase. Afterwards, a temporary rally is expected to provide a correction before the next decline resumes.

In the near term, as long as the high of 38,029 remains intact, any upward movements are likely to be limited, setting the stage for additional downside. Investors should monitor these developments closely as the Nikkei continues to navigate this pattern

Nikkei 60 Minute Elliott Wave Chart

NKD Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCWtSXB_IeA

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9445; (P) 0.9517; (R1) 0.9567; More....

EUR/CHF's fall from 0.9660 resumed with downside acceleration. Current development suggests that rise from 0.9204 has completed as a three-wave correction, after rejection by long-term falling channel resistance. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.9331 support first. On the upside, above 0.9486 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9600) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Downside breakout through 0.9204 low is in favor at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8352; (P) 0.8401; (R1) 0.8483; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays on the upside for medium term channel resistance (now at 0.8490). Firm break there will target 100% projection of 0.8239 to 0.8448 from 0.8314 at 0.8523. On the downside, below 0.8412 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is still bounded inside medium term falling channel. While rebound from 0.8221 might extend higher, it could still develop into a corrective pattern. Overall outlook will be neutral at best and down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) could extend, at least until decisive break of channel resistance (now at 0.8490).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7279; (P) 1.7405; (R1) 1.7587; More...

EUR/AUD's up trend resumed through 1.7417 and met 61.8% projection of 1.6355 to 1.7417 from 1.7047 at 1.7703 already. There is no sign of topping yet. Intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 1.7703 will target 100% projection at 1.8109. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.7047 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress and has met 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.7682 already. Sustained trading above 1.7682 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.8744. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support holds (2023 high) even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.32; (P) 192.20; (R1) 193.26; More...

Break of 192.00 support suggests that GBP/JPY rebound from 107.04 has completed at 195.95. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 188.77 support first. Break there target 187.04. Overall, corrective pattern from 180.00 is still extending. Another rise might still be seen as long as 187.04 support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.01; (P) 161.53; (R1) 162.96; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 164.16 will resume the rally from 154.77 to 164.89 resistance, and then 166.67. However, break of 158.87 support will bring deeper decline back to 154.77 support. Overall, sideway consolidation pattern from 154.40 is still extending.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6240; (P) 0.6315; (R1) 0.6403; More...

AUD/USD jumped to 0.6388 but reversed again. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Overall, outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413 holds. Firm of 0.6128 support will argue that corrective pattern from 0.6087 has completed and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6461) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3978; (P) 1.4148; (R1) 1.4269; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.4150 from 1.4414 at 1.4018. Decisive break there would extend the fall from 1.4791 to 100% projection at 1.3773 next. On the upside, above 1.4158 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 1.3976 resistance turned support (2022 high), which is close to 55 W EMA (now at 1.3986). Sustained break there should confirm medium term topping at 1.4791. Deeper correction would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727.