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EUR/USD's rally from 1.0176 resumed last week and spiked higher to 1.1145. But a temporary top was formed there with subsequent retreat. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1145 at 1.0775 to bring rebound. Above 1.1145 will target 1.1213/74 key resistance zone next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through the multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0731 support holds.

In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal is building up. Sustained break of falling channel resistance (now at around 1.1350) will argue that the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has completed at 0.9534. A medium term up trend should then follow even as a corrective move. Nevertheless, rejection by the channel resistance will keep outlook bearish.

USD/JPY's fall from 158.86 resumed last week and hits as low as 144.54. But a temporary low should be formed with subsequent recovery. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations first. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 151.20 resistance holds. Below 144.54 will target 61.8% projection of 158.86 to 146.52 from 151.20 at 143.57. Break there will target 139.57 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 137.30) and even below.

GBP/USD spiked higher to 1.3206 last week but subsequent reversal indicates that a short term top was formed. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3206 at 1.2783. Decisive break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2522. On the upside, above 1.2961 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 are seen as a corrective pattern to the up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2099 could be the second leg. Overall, GBP/USD should target 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high) on break of 1.3433 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, price actions from 1.0351 (2022 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.4248 structural resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

USD/CHF's fall from 0.9196 resumed last week and accelerated to as low as 0.8475. But a temporary was formed with subsequent recovery. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations first. Recovery should be limited by 0.8757 support turned resistance. Below 0.8475 will target 100% projection of 0.9196 to 0.8757 from 0.8854 at 0.8415.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9196 at 0.8075.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317, will pave the way back to 0.7065.

AUD/USD's steep decline and break of 0.6087 support confirms that whole fall from 0.6941 has resumed. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.6941 to 0.6087 from 0.6388 at 0.5860. On the upside, above 0.6138 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6388 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.6755) is taken as a bearish signal. But for now, fall from 0.8006 is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. However, this view is subject to adjustment if current decline accelerates further.

USD/CAD's fall from 1.4791 resumed last week and hit as low as 1.4026. But it then recovered notably, ahead of 1.3946/76 support zone. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.4414 resistance will suggest that the decline has completed as a three wave correction, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4791 high. However, firm break of 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.4150 from 1.4414 at 1.4018, could prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.3773 next.

In the bigger picture, focus is now on 1.3976 resistance turned support (2022 high), which is close to 55 W EMA (now at 1.3992). Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. That is, up trend from 1.2005 is still in progress for breaking through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained break there should confirm medium term topping at 1.4791. Deeper correction would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727.

In the longer term picture, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is in progress and possibly resuming. Next target is 61.8% projections of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2005 at 1.5270. While rejection by 1.4689 will delay the bullish case, further rally will remain in favor as long as 55 M EMA (1.3491) holds.

GBP/JPY's steep decline last week indicates that rebound from 187.04 has completed with three waves up to 195.95. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Break of 187.04 will resume the whole fall from 199.79. Next target is 100% projection of 198.94 to 187.04 from 195.95 at 184.05. On the upside, above 190.62 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it's still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 174.68).

EUR/JPY dipped notably last week but recovered ahead of 158.87 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 164.16 will resume the rally from 154.77 to 164.89 resistance, and then 166.67. However, break of 158.87 support will bring deeper decline back to 154.77 support. Overall, sideway consolidation pattern from 154.40 is still extending.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 148.94).

EUR/GBP's rise from 0.8239 resumed by breaking through 0.8448 and 0.8472 resistance. There is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias stays on the upside this week. Firm break of 100% projection of 0.8239 to 0.8448 from 0.8314 at 0.8523 will pave the way to 0.8624 cluster resistance next. On the downside, below 0.8447 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the break of medium term channel resistance is a bullish signal. Down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) could have completed at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.9201 key support (2022 low). Firm break of 0.8624 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8621) will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8867 next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.8624 will keep medium term outlook neutral at best.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD's up trend resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 1.8290. There is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias stays on the upside for 161.8% projection of 1.6355 to 1.7417 from 1.7047 at 1.8765 next. On the downside, below 1.7965 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is in progress, and in reacceleration phase as seen in W MACD. Next target is 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support holds (2023 high) even in case of deep pullback.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6213) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, firm break of the above mention 1.8744 projection level with strong momentum, will argue that it's indeed resuming the up trend form 1.1602 (2012 low).