Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0770; (P) 1.0800; (R1) 1.0822; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.0857 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.0963 has completed already. Retest of 1.0953 should be seen first. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1.0176 towards 1.1274 key resistance. However, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0358 to 1.0953 at 1.0726 will bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0650).

In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0692) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2888; (P) 1.2915; (R1) 1.2950; More...

GBP/USD is still extending consolidation from 1.3013 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 1.2869 will bring deeper correction. But downside should be contained above 38.2% retracement of 1.2248 to 1.3013 at 1.2721. On the upside, break of 1.3013 will resume the rally from 1.2099 towards 1.3433 high.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8819; (P) 0.8835; (R1) 0.8854; More…

No change in USD/CHF's outlook as consolidation from 0.8757 is still extending. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8911 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 0.8757 will resume the fall from 0.9200 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8690. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 0.8374 support.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.01; (P) 149.58; (R1) 150.19; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Corrective rise from 146.52 could have completed at 151.20 already. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 151.29 resistance holds. Below 148.69 will bring retest of 146.52 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 158.86 towards 139.57 support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6246; (P) 0.6264; (R1) 0.6297; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral again with current strong recovery. ON the downside, break of 0.6218 will target 0.6186 support first. Firm break there will indicate that corrective pattern from 0.6087 has completed and larger fall from 0.6941 is ready to resume. However, break of 0.6329 will bring stronger rise back to 0.6390/6407 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6461) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4264; (P) 1.4339; (R1) 1.4380; More...

USD/CAD reversed after edging higher to 1.4414, but stays in established range. intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.4791 is still extending. On the upside, break of 1.4414 will argue that it's still in the second leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside fro 1.4541 resistance first, and then 100% projection of 1.4150 to 1.4541 from 1.4234 at 1.4625. On the downside, though, break of 1.42324 support will suggest that the third leg has already started for 1.4150 and below.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Asian markets traded cautiously today as investors await the long-anticipated reciprocal tariff announcement from the US, dubbed “Liberation Day” by President Donald Trump. Following the mixed close on Wall Street, risk sentiment remains fragile, with traders in clear wait-and-see mode. However, the rebound in commodity currencies overnight hints that some market participants are leaning toward a less aggressive scenario unfolding — a bet that could quickly unravel if reality disappoints.

According to the White House, the tariff announcement is set to take place today, with Trump scheduled to speak at 4 p.m. ET in the Rose Garden. Rumors continue to swirl over the exact details, but there is increasing chatter that the US may impose a blanket 20% tariff on most imports, lower than a strict “reciprocal” application would suggest. That level, while significant, may be seen as a relief to markets bracing for worse.

Further, reports indicate that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has characterized the tariffs as a “cap,” suggesting that countries could negotiate lower rates if they meet US trade demands. This strategy, if confirmed, would effectively introduce a variable rate tariff regime that could evolve through bilateral talks.

However, this overlooks a major wildcard: retaliatory measures from major US trading partners, such as Canada, the EU, and potentially China, which could unleash a spiral of escalation in the weeks ahead. In any case, volatility could spike over the next 24 hours as traders digest the final scope and tone of the announcement.

In the forex markets, price action remains relatively tight, with all major pairs and crosses still trapped within last week’s ranges. Aussie leads the pack, followed by Kiwi and Loonie. On the other end, Euro is the weakest, with Sterling and Swiss Franc also underperforming. Dollar and Yen are holding middle ground for now. But this pecking order could shift quickly once the tariff announcement is out.

Technically, EUR/USD is worth a watch to gauge Dollar's response to today's tariff announcement. Firm break of 1.0857 resistance should confirm that correction from 1.0953 has completed. And larger rally from 1.0176 is ready to resume. However, firm break of 1.0731 will extend the correction from 1.0953 lower.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.38%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.17%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.19%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.16%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.005 at 1.499. Overnight, DOW fell -0.03%. S&P 500 rose 0.38%. NASDAQ rose 0.87%. 10-year yield fell -0.090 to 4.156.

BoJ's Ueda: US tariffs pose short-term inflation risk, long-term growth uncertainty

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said today that the ramifications of US tariff policy remain "highly uncertain" and could significantly affect global trade.

Speaking to Japan’s parliament, Ueda emphasized that the ultimate impact would depend on the "range and scale" of the tariffs being implemented. He also noted that beyond trade flows, a key concern lies in "how the tariffs could affect the sentiment and spending of households and companies."

Ueda further highlighted that while US inflation may rise in the short term due to higher import costs, the longer-term effect is less predictable. He suggested that elevated tariffs could eventually weigh on US economic growth, which in turn might dampen inflationary pressures over time.

Fed's Goolsbee warns of fear-driven uncertainty as tariff worries grow

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledged in a Fox News interview that while hard data, like the low 4.1% unemployment rate, still point to economic resilience, soft data are painting a gloomier picture.

Goolsbee highlighted the noticeable decline in business and consumer sentiment. Goolsbee said that this shift reflects growing uncertainty and fear regarding tariffs.

"They don't want to go back to the kind of inflationary environment that we had in '21 and '22. And we're just going to have to see how this plays out," he added.

Goolsbee emphasized that while imports make up only around 11% of the U.S. economy — potentially limiting the direct inflationary impact of tariffs — there are wider concerns.

“The fear is if it jumps out of the 11% lane,” he warned, noting that cascading effects from uncertainty could stall consumer spending or business investment.

Looking ahead

The European calendar is empty today. US will release ADP employment and factory orders.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4264; (P) 1.4339; (R1) 1.4380; More...

USD/CAD reversed after edging higher to 1.4414, but stays in established range. intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.4791 is still extending. On the upside, break of 1.4414 will argue that it's still in the second leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside fro 1.4541 resistance first, and then 100% projection of 1.4150 to 1.4541 from 1.4234 at 1.4625. On the downside, though, break of 1.42324 support will suggest that the third leg has already started for 1.4150 and below.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Key Highlights

• AUD/USD started a fresh decline below the 0.6300 support.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 0.6275 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD is consolidating below the 1.0870 resistance zone.
• Gold prices rallied further toward the $3,150 level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar failed to continue higher above the 0.6330 resistance against the US Dollar. AUD/USD started a fresh decline below 0.6300 and tested 0.6220.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded as low as 0.6218 and settled below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The pair is now consolidating losses and struggling to start a steady increase.

On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 0.6270 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6275 on the same chart.

The next major resistance is near the 0.6288 level. The main resistance is now forming near the 0.6300 zone and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A close above the 0.6300 level could set the tone for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could even clear the 0.6330 resistance.

On the downside, immediate support sits near the 0.6220 level. The next key support sits near the 0.6200 level. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 0.6165 level.

Looking at Gold, the bulls remained in action and pushed the price to a new record high above the $3,145 level.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• US ADP Employment Change for March 2025 - Forecast 105K, versus 77K previous.
• US Liberation Day Tariff Announcements.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said today that the ramifications of US tariff policy remain "highly uncertain" and could significantly affect global trade.

Speaking to Japan’s parliament, Ueda emphasized that the ultimate impact would depend on the "range and scale" of the tariffs being implemented. He also noted that beyond trade flows, a key concern lies in "how the tariffs could affect the sentiment and spending of households and companies."

Ueda further highlighted that while US inflation may rise in the short term due to higher import costs, the longer-term effect is less predictable. He suggested that elevated tariffs could eventually weigh on US economic growth, which in turn might dampen inflationary pressures over time.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledged in a Fox News interview that while hard data, like the low 4.1% unemployment rate, still point to economic resilience, soft data are painting a gloomier picture.

Goolsbee highlighted the noticeable decline in business and consumer sentiment. Goolsbee said that this shift reflects growing uncertainty and fear regarding tariffs.

"They don't want to go back to the kind of inflationary environment that we had in '21 and '22. And we're just going to have to see how this plays out," he added.

Goolsbee emphasized that while imports make up only around 11% of the U.S. economy — potentially limiting the direct inflationary impact of tariffs — there are wider concerns.

“The fear is if it jumps out of the 11% lane,” he warned, noting that cascading effects from uncertainty could stall consumer spending or business investment.