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Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.55; (P) 149.65; (R1) 150.37; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside with 150.72 minor resistance intact. Fall from 158.85 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 161.94 high. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 next. On the upside, above 150.72 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8962; (P) 0.8984; (R1) 0.8999; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation pattern from 0.9200 might extend with deeper decline. But larger rally is still expected to continue as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8884 holds. On the upside, above 0.9053 will bring retest of 0.9200 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.8884 will indicate bearish reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8690 instead.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 0.9223 resistance will argue that whole down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) has completed with three waves down to 0.8332 (2023 low). Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.0146 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9223 will retain medium term bearishness for another decline through 0.8332 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2615; (P) 1.2647; (R1) 1.2669; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. But further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.2522 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.2689 will resume the rally from 1.2099 to 1.2810 resistance next. However, firm break below 1.2522 will argue that the rebound might have completed, and bring deeper fall to 1.2331 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433 (2024 high), and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move. However, firm break of 1.2810 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.3433 high instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0436; (P) 1.0474; (R1) 1.0499; More...

EUR/USD's rally attempt today quickly lost momentum and intraday bias stays neutral. Outlook is unchanged that price actions from 1.0176 are forming a corrective pattern only. Strong resistance is expected from 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.0400 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0176/0210 support zone. However, decisive break of 1.0572 will raise the chance of reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0817.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 (2024 high) at 1.0199. Sustained break there will solidify the case of medium term bearish trend reversal, and pave the way back to 0.9534. However, reversal from 1.0199 will argue that price actions from 1.1274 are merely a corrective pattern, and has already completed.

Euro’s brief post-election rally faded quickly, as investors welcomed CDU/CSU’s victory but remained cautious due to lingering uncertainties around coalition formation and fiscal policy. While a relatively centrist government comprising CDU and the Social Democrats would provide stability, challenges surrounding the "debt brake" reform and defense spending continue to cloud the outlook.

A coalition with the Greens and Social Democrats would likely be the most market-friendly outcome. However, even with these three parties combined, they fall short of the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to reform the "debt brake", which limits Germany’s structural budget deficit to 0.35% of GDP. Meanwhile, far-right AfD remains excluded from coalition talks, as Friedrich Merz has ruled out working with them.

This situation presents a fiscal dilemma for Germany, particularly given geopolitical uncertainties. The government faces pressure to increase both defense spending and broader fiscal stimulus, but policy divisions persist. The Left Party favors loosening the debt brake, but only for social and economic spending, not for increased defense expenditure. These divisions could complicate budget negotiations and delay much-needed investment decisions.

Bundesbank weighed in on the debate today, backing an increase in the government's deficit cap, citing the need for higher public investment while Germany’s debt ratio remains low. In its monthly report, the Bundesbank argued that adapting the debt brake's borrowing limit to current economic conditions is justified, but also stressed the importance of reviewing fiscal priorities and ensuring efficient use of financial resources.

In the currency markets, trading remains subdued, with major pairs and crosses confined within Friday’s ranges. Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollars are the strongest performers, while Yen is the weakest, followed by Swiss Franc and British Pound. Euro and Dollar are mixed in the middle.

Technically, a major focus is whether the risk market selloff last week would extend today, and its impact in the forex markets. As for AUD/USD, firm break of 0.6327 support will suggest that corrective rebound from 0.6087 has completed ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413. Deeper decline would then be seen back to retest 0.6087, with prospects of resuming the whole fall from 0.6941.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.01%/ DAX is up 0.85%. CAC is down -0.22%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.0207 at 4.597. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.020 at 2.493. Earlier in Asia, Japan was on holiday. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.58%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.18%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.06%.

Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.5% in Jan, core CPI holds at 2.7%

Eurozone headline inflation was finalized at 2.5% yoy in January, ticking up from 2.4% yoy in December. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, remained unchanged at 2.7% yoy.

The largest contributor to Eurozone inflation was the services sector, which added 1.77 percentage points (pp) to the overall rate. Food, alcohol, and tobacco contributed 0.45 pp, while energy added 0.18 pp, and non-energy industrial goods accounted for 0.12 pp.

At the EU level, CPI was finalized at 2.8% yoy. The lowest inflation rates were seen in Denmark (1.4%), Ireland, Italy, and Finland (all 1.7%), indicating softer price pressures in some core economies. On the other hand, Hungary (5.7%), Romania (5.3%), and Croatia (5.0%) recorded the highest inflation levels, underlining regional imbalances in price stability.

Compared to December, inflation fell in eight EU member states, remained unchanged in four, and rose in fifteen.

German Ifo unchanged at 85.2, businesses waiting to see how things develop

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index was unchanged at 85.2 in February, falling short of expectations for a rise to 85.8. The data reflects that businesses are still "skeptical" about the outlook, "waiting to see how things develop", according to the Ifo Institute.

Current Assessment Index dropped from 86.0 to 85.0, missing the forecasted 86.5. However, Expectations Index showed slight improvement, rising from 84.3 to 85.4, exceeding the consensus of 85.2.

Sector-wise, the manufacturing index improved from -24.8 to -22.1, and trade sentiment rebounded from -29.5 to -26.2. The construction sector also saw a marginal improvement, rising from -28.1 to -27.6. However, services weakened, falling from -2.2 to -4.3.

New Zealand retail sales rises 0.9% qoq in Q4, ex-auto sales jumps 1.4% qoq

New Zealand's Q4 retail sales volume rose 0.9% qoq to NZD 25B, surpassing expectations of 0.6% qoq. Excluding autos, sales jumped 1.4% qoq, well above the 0.3% qoq forecast.

Sales volume growth was broad-based, with 10 of 15 industries posting gains. The largest increases came from electrical and electronic goods (+5.1%), department stores (+4.2%), and accommodation (+7.6%). Meanwhile, food and beverage services rose 2.3%, but pharmaceutical and other retailing declined -3.4%.

Retail sales value climbed 1.4% qoq to NZD 30B, with 11 of 15 sectors reporting gains. Price effects were evident, particularly in accommodation (+11%), food and beverage services (+3.3%), and department stores (+2.9%).

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0436; (P) 1.0474; (R1) 1.0499; More...

EUR/USD's rally attempt today quickly lost momentum and intraday bias stays neutral. Outlook is unchanged that price actions from 1.0176 are forming a corrective pattern only. Strong resistance is expected from 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.0400 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0176/0210 support zone. However, decisive break of 1.0572 will raise the chance of reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0817.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 (2024 high) at 1.0199. Sustained break there will solidify the case of medium term bearish trend reversal, and pave the way back to 0.9534. However, reversal from 1.0199 will argue that price actions from 1.1274 are merely a corrective pattern, and has already completed.

According to the latest Ifo report, the German business climate remained unchanged in February. The business climate index stayed at 85.2, with a deterioration in the assessment of the current situation offset by an increase in the expectations component. It is also noted that for almost a year, the index components have nearly converged into a single line, with all three slowly declining.

On average, market analysts anticipated positive development, so the outcome led to some pressure on the single currency, which fell below $1.05. Over the weekend, Germany’s parliamentary elections largely aligned with expectations, confirming the transition of power from Scholz to Merz. The latter announced a course of “independence from the US.”

The far-right AfD party came in second with 21% of the vote, but other parties declined to form a coalition with it, thus significantly reducing its influence. Markets reacted moderately positively to the election results, with EURUSD and the German DAX40 opening the day higher. However, a more cautious reading on business sentiment limited these gains.

From a technical perspective, the EURUSD continues to encounter significant resistance at 1.05. A break below this level at the end of last year indicated a market shift towards a possible decline below parity. In January and February, the euro attempted to rise above this level but has so far encountered resistance.

Hello traders ! In this technical article, we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of GOLD (XAUUSD ) , published in the members area of the website.

As our members know, XAUUSD has been showing impulsive bullish sequences in the cycle from 2579.36. We continue to favor the long side in this commodity. Recently, GOLD pulled back and found buyers at the equal legs area.

GOLD (XAUUSD) Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 02.21.2025

GOLD remains bullish as long as it holds above the 2863.42 pivot in the first degree. Currently, it is showing three waves down from the peak, reaching the extreme zone at 2919.6–2900.83. We expect buyers to step in at this area, leading to either a continuation toward new highs or at least a three-wave bounce.

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GOLD (XAUUSD) Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 02.21.2025

GOLD is showing us nice reaction from the equal legs area (2919.6–2900.83) . The commodity completed 3 waves down at the 2917.16 low. As expected, buyers stepped in, pushing prices higher. Now, we’d like to see a break above the February 20th peak to confirm further upside extension. A break above this level would open the door for a potential move toward the 2994.7+ area.

The New Zealand dollar is showing little movement on Monday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5745 in the European session, up 0.07% on the day.

NZ retail sales hit 3-year high

The week started on a high note in New Zealand, as retail sales jumped 0.9% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2024, after a revised flat reading in the third quarter and above the market estimate of 0.6%. This was the strongest gain in three years. Most sub-categories posted gains as the improvement was felt across the economy. Annually, retail sales posted a small gain of 0.2% in the fourth quarter following a 2.2% decline in Q3. This was the first gain since Q3 of 2022.

The strong impressive rebound in retail sales is a sign that lower interest rates are filtering through the economy and boosting weak growth. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been aggressive, chopping rates by 50 basis points in October, November and February. The cash rate is down to 3.75%, its lowest level since Oct. 2022. Consumers are showing improved confidence due to lower borrowing costs and are opening up the purse strings.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand plans to continue cutting rates but in a more gradual fashion. Governor Adrian Orr signaled at last week’s meeting that he expects to cut rates by 25 basis points in both April and May, provided that economic conditions evolve as projected.

In the US, the Services PMI for February surprised on the downside and contracted to 49.7, down from 52.9 in January and below the market estimate of 53.0. This marked the lowest level since January 2023. The services sector, which has been the major driver of the US economy, showed strong growth until the end of 2024 and has weakened for two straight months. The Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.6, up from 51.2 and above the market estimate of 51.5.

NZD/USD Technical

• 0.5731 is a weak support level. Below, there is support at 0.5688
• 0.5783 and 0.5826 are the next resistance lines

Eurozone headline inflation was finalized at 2.5% yoy in January, ticking up from 2.4% yoy in December. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, remained unchanged at 2.7% yoy.

The largest contributor to Eurozone inflation was the services sector, which added 1.77 percentage points (pp) to the overall rate. Food, alcohol, and tobacco contributed 0.45 pp, while energy added 0.18 pp, and non-energy industrial goods accounted for 0.12 pp.

At the EU level, CPI was finalized at 2.8% yoy. The lowest inflation rates were seen in Denmark (1.4%), Ireland, Italy, and Finland (all 1.7%), indicating softer price pressures in some core economies. On the other hand, Hungary (5.7%), Romania (5.3%), and Croatia (5.0%) recorded the highest inflation levels, underlining regional imbalances in price stability.

Compared to December, inflation fell in eight EU member states, remained unchanged in four, and rose in fifteen.

Full Eurozone CPI final release here.

Market Picture

Bitcoin continues to move strictly to the side, while the crypto market dynamics generally resemble a bouncing ball, getting lower and lower over time. The local resistance has moved to the $3.20 trillion area, while the lower boundary has remained near $3.10 trillion for the last three weeks. Thus, the market is accumulating risks that we will get a compressed spring effect with a sharp move in one direction in the coming days.

Bitcoin unsuccessfully tested the 50-day moving average near $98.5K on Friday once again, staying under it for the past 19 days but not going below $94.0K. It is noteworthy that the first cryptocurrency held its technical levels on Monday at the opening of financial markets in Europe, while the largest altcoins are losing ground. The latter’s dynamics are likely to be negatively impacted by cryptocurrency exchanges’ trust issues after Friday’s hack of Bybit’s wallet, even though the platform covered ETH’s shortfall relatively quickly.

The tech analysis paints a heavy picture for Solana, whose price has fallen to $157, its lowest since early November.

News Background

According to SoSoValue, net outflows from spot bitcoin-ETFs declined to $559.4 million for the week. In comparison, cumulative inflows since the approval of bitcoin-ETFs in January 2024 fell to $39.56 billion (-1.4% for the week). Net inflows into the ETH-ETF totalled a paltry $1.6 million for the week after a small outflow of $26.3 million a week earlier. Cumulative net inflows from ETF launches in July were unchanged at $3.15 billion.

The Bybit exchange lost $1.46 billion because of the hack. The Bybit CEO emphasised that only one multi-signature cold wallet was affected; the rest of the funds are fine. The attackers used a sophisticated transaction spoofing method to gain full control of the assets.

Venture capitalist, millionaire investor and founder of blockchain company Card1Ventures Gary Cardone announced his complete exit from the XRP cryptocurrency (at $2.71). According to him, he was driven by professional instincts.

Santiment believes that the average rate of return of wallets, the decrease in the number of “sleeping” coins and the volume of available bitcoins on exchanges indicate the rapid growth of the rate of the first cryptocurrency.

The spot Litecoin-ETF proposed by Canary Capital in January appeared on the Financial Services Clearing and Settlement Company’s (DTCC) asset list. Previously, such a procedure preceded the launch of the product.