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US initial jobless claims ticked up by 6k to 214k in the week ending April 18, above expectation ion of 210k. Four-week average also edged higher to 210.75k.

Continuing claims rose by 12k to 1.821M in the week ending April 11, suggesting a modest increase in the number of people staying on unemployment benefits. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 1k to 1.812M.

Full US jobless claims release here.

EUR/USD has declined steadily, falling to 1.1688 on Thursday. The US dollar has returned to ten-day highs amid a lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks, boosting demand for the currency as a safe-haven asset.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Tehran continues to control this strategically vital waterway, with reports indicating it has previously seized two vessels in the area. At the same time, the US blockade of Iranian ports persists, contributing to higher energy prices and increasing risk for inflation.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated that the current truce will remain in force indefinitely, as Washington awaits a new peace proposal from Iran.

Investors remain concerned about US inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year. Earlier, Fed nominee Kevin Warsh emphasised the importance of maintaining the central bank's independence from the White House.

Market focus now shifts to weekly jobless claims and PMI data, which should provide further insight into the outlook for the US economy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1736, currently extending down to 1.1693. The pair is likely to move lower towards 1.1680. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, indicating sustained bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is developing a move lower towards 1.1680. A corrective rebound to 1.1711 may follow, before a further decline towards 1.1620. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view, with its signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards, suggesting continued short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion

EUR/USD has declined for a third consecutive session amid geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar. The lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks, combined with Tehran's control over the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports, has kept energy prices elevated and inflation risks in focus. Trump's indication that the truce will remain in place indefinitely, pending a new proposal from Iran, offers little immediate relief. With markets now pricing in no Fed rate cuts this year and key US data approaching, the euro remains under pressure. Technical signals suggest further downside towards 1.1680, and potentially to 1.1620 in the near term.

UK business activity picked up in April, with the Flash PMI Composite rising from 50.3 to 52.0, a two-month high. Services activity rose from 50.5 to 52.0. Manufacturing PMI jumped from 51.0 to 53.6, the highest level in nearly four years, with output returning to expansion at 51.8, up from 49.2. However, much of this strength appears to be driven by front-loaded demand, as firms rush to secure inputs and build inventories ahead of expected supply disruptions.

That urgency is being fueled by rising costs. Price pressures have surged at one of the fastest rates outside of the pandemic period, driven not only by higher energy prices but also broader supply concerns. Supply chain delays have also intensified, reaching levels rarely seen outside crisis periods, adding further upward pressure to prices.

The survey underscores the increasingly difficult trade-off facing the Bank of England. The sharp spike in price pressures is likely to intensify calls for further rate hikes to contain inflation. However, policymakers cannot ignore the growing signs of fragility in demand and confidence.

While April’s PMI points to a modest rebound from March, consistent with around 0.2% quarterly growth, the underlying details—softening employment, weaker sentiment, and supply-driven activity—suggest that this pace may prove short-lived if the crisis persists.

Full UK PMI flash release here.

Eurozone business activity slipped back into contraction in April, with the Flash Composite PMI dropping from 50.7 to 48.6, a 17-month low. The downturn was driven primarily by a sharp deterioration in the services sector, where activity fell from 50.2 to 47.4, the weakest level in over five years.

The services slump highlights the growing impact of the Middle East conflict on the broader economy. Rising energy costs and supply disruptions are weighing heavily on demand, pushing activity down at a pace not seen since the pandemic period. The data suggests the Eurozone is already entering a mild contraction, with GDP expected to shrink slightly by -0.1% in the second quarter.

In contrast, manufacturing continues to show resilience. Output edged up from 52.0 to 52.2, while the headline PMI rose to from 51.6 52.2, the highest in nearly four years. However, this strength appears less encouraging beneath the surface. Much of the growth is being driven by "stock building" as firms rush to secure inputs ahead of further price increases and supply shortages.

Price pressures are intensifying sharply. Input costs and output prices have surged at the fastest rates since 2000 outside of the pandemic, reflecting higher energy prices and broader commodity inflation.

Full Eurozone PMI flash release here.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has fallen by 0.8% over the past 24 hours to $2.6 trillion, driven by pressure on altcoins, while Bitcoin has been pulling the market upwards, a relatively unusual situation. Leading the day’s gains with fairly modest figures were Bitcoin (+0.4%), Hedera (0%) and Aptos (0%). The corrective pullback is more pronounced, with losses of 5% for Dash, 4.9% for Theta and 4.8% for Basic Attention Token.

Sentiment continues to improve rapidly, with the corresponding index rising to 46 — a high not seen in over three months.

On Wednesday evening, Bitcoin briefly exceeded $79K, confirming our view of relatively weak resistance in the $75–86K range. This was the positive side of the close correlation with traditional financial markets. The flip side of this correlation was a pause in growth as key indices pulled back from all-time highs, causing the leading cryptocurrency to retreat to the $78K range.

News Background

The Volo liquid staking protocol on the Sui blockchain lost $3.5 million due to a hack. According to estimates by Memento Research, April was the worst month for the decentralised finance (DeFi) sector in terms of losses. The largest incidents involved the Drift and Kelp protocols, with combined losses approaching $600 million.

Within a few days of the Kelp hack, users withdrew $15.1 billion from the Aave lending protocol, notes EmberCN. Aave, the largest decentralised lending protocol, found itself at the centre of a systemic DeFi crisis after hackers used it to withdraw funds stolen from Kelp.

Tron founder Justin Sun has filed a lawsuit in a California federal court against Donald Trump’s family crypto platform, World Liberty Financial, claiming that his WLFI tokens were frozen without cause and threatened with destruction.

New York has sued crypto exchanges Coinbase and Gemini over contracts on the prediction market that violate gambling laws. The lawsuit follows several similar proceedings in other states. There is a possibility that the case will reach the US Supreme Court.

Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, expressed support for cryptocurrencies during his testimony before the US Senate. According to him, digital assets “have already become an integral part of the US financial services industry”.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 214.96; (P) 215.31; (R1) 215.71; More...

GBP/JPY is still extending consolidations below 215.89 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 213.29 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 215.89 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 199.04 to 214.98 from 209.58 at 219.43.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 204.83) holds, even in case of another deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 186.46; (P) 186.90; (R1) 187.14; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral as consolidations continue below 187.93. Another fall might be seen to 38.2% retracement of 182.56 to 187.93 at 185.87. But strong support would be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, though, break of 187.93 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 180.78 support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8657; (P) 0.8680; (R1) 0.8693; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is back on the downside with break of 0.8675 support. Rebound from 0.8610 could have completed at 0.8740 already. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 0.8610 low. On the paused, above 0.8692 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen again from 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Break of 0.8788 resistance will argue that larger rise from 0.8221 might be ready to resume through 0.8863 (2025 high). Nevertheless, sustained trading below 0.8618 should confirm bearish reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6318; (P) 1.6378; (R1) 1.6412; More...

EUR/AUD's fall from 1.6842 is in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper decline should be seen to retest 1.6125 low. Firm break there will resume whole down trend from 1.8554 to 1.5913 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.6477 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is in progress and deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7131) holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9166; (P) 0.9179; (R1) 0.9198; More....

No change in EUR/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen below 0.9264. Further rise is in favor with 0.9155 support intact. Firm break of 0.9264 will resume the rise from 0.8979 to 0.9394 resistance next. However, break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.8979. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9280) will add more credence to this case. Further break of 0.9394 resistance will pave the way to 0.9660 resistance next. However rejection by the 55 W EMA will set up another fall through 0.8979 low at a later stage.