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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8315; (P) 0.8336; (R1) 0.8357; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral and near term outlook is mixed. On the upside, above 0.8376 minor resistance will bring stronger rally towards 0.8472. However, on the downside, break of 0.8290 will resume the fall from 08472 to retest 0.8221 low.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.8221 medium term bottom could extend higher through 55 W EMA (now at 0.8435). However, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.8624 cluster resistance zone (38.2% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8621) holds. Another decline through 0.8221 would remain mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6484; (P) 1.6531; (R1) 1.6562; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. The favored case remains that consolidation pattern from 1.6800 has completed at 1.6391 already. On the upside above 1.6631 will bring retest of 1.6800 first. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1.5963 to 61.8% projection of 1.5693 to 1.6800 from 1.6391 at 1.6908.

In the bigger picture, with 1.5996 key support (2024 low) intact, larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5996 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9420; (P) 0.9447; (R1) 0.9468; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral with mixed near term outlook. On the downside, break of 0.9359 support will revive the case that choppy rise from 0.9204 is merely a correction and has completed. Deeper fall should then be seen back to retest 0.9204 low. However, firm break of 0.9516 and sustained trading above 0.9481 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implication and extend the rise from 0.9204.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 0.9928 to 0.9204 at 0.9481 should confirm that whole fall from 0.9928 has completed at 0.9204. Further rally should then be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 0.9651 and above. However, another rejection by 0.9481 will keep outlook bearish for extending larger down trend through 0.9204.

Gold price rallied further and traded to a new all-time high. Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $70.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase above the $2,880 zone against the US Dollar.
• A major bullish trend line is forming with support at $2,885 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude oil prices failed to clear the $73.50 region and started a fresh decline.
•  There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $71.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $2,855 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a strong increase above $2,900.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $2,920. The bulls pushed the price above the $2,930 and $2,935 resistance levels. Finally, the price climbed as high as $2,940 before there was a pullback.

The price tested the $2,880 zone and is currently rising. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downside correction from the $2,940 swing high to the $2,878 low, and the RSI is stable above 45.

Immediate resistance is near the $2,910 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downside correction from the $2,940 swing high to the $2,878 low.

The next major resistance is near the $2,915 level. An upside break above the $2,915 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,940. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,950 level.

Initial support on the downside is near a major bullish trend line at $2,885. The first major support is near the $2,878 zone. If there is a downside break below the $2,878 support, the price might decline further.

In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,855 zone. Any more losses might push the price toward the $2,840 level.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to clear the $73.50 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below the $72.20 support.

The price even dipped below the $71.50 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls are now active near the $70.20 level. A low was formed at $70.12, and the price is now consolidating losses. If there is a fresh increase, it could face resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71.87 swing high to the $70.12 low at $71.00.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $71.00. The first major resistance is near the $71.85 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72.20 level.

The main resistance could be near the $73.35 level. Conversely, the price might continue to move down and revisit the $70.00 support. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $68.80.

If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $66.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $65.00 support zone.

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In focus this week

Today, European leaders gather in Paris for crisis talks about the future of European security regardless of US engagement, how to support Ukraine and strengthen Europe's position to negotiate. This comes as a response to President Donald Trump opening peace talks with Russia while limiting European involvement in the negotiations.

Markets are continuing to observe the recent movements in politics around the world, with the highlights being the potential ceasefire in Ukraine, the German federal election on Sunday and any signs of Xi-Trump talks related to the recent tariff increases.

The main data print of the week is anticipated to be the release of the PMIs from most major countries on Friday, apart from China, and with US regional surveys coming in the days before. Focus will be on the euro area release as to whether it continues to move in a positive direction supporting the view that the European economy is slowly being supported by rising real incomes and lower interest rates.

Today in Sweden, the monthly labour force survey is due at 08.00 CET where we expect to see a stabilisation of the current weak labour market, but without any marked improvement in the unemployment figure. Such an outcome would be in line with last week's PES report that showed an unchanged unemployment rate and a return of layoffs to their historical average after being at elevated levels in early autumn.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In the US, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Ukraine and Europe would be part of any real negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The peace talks will kick off this week in Saudi Arabia between negotiating teams from the US and Russia. Ukraine's representatives apparently will not attend and their role in the process remains unclear. Read more on an alternative 'dirty deal' scenario and the expected market impacts in Research Global - What would a dirty deal in Ukraine mean for markets? 16 February.

In Japan, Q4 GDP came in above expectations at 2.8 % (cons: 1.0 %) and consumption growth for the same period slowed by less than expected, staying in the positives at 0.1% (cons: -0.3%). The strong prints caused the yen to rise and potentially pave the way for additional BoJ hikes down the road.

What happened over the weekend

The Security Conference in Munich, dominated headlines over the weekend, with a primary focus on the US-EU relationship. EU leaders are set to meet in Paris to continue discussions on the future of the EU across several topics.

In the US, January retail sales surprised to the downside across both headline sales at -0.9% m/m (cons: -0.2% m/m) and control group sales (-0.8% m/m SA). Overall, the print was weak, but less than the headline figures would suggest. The modest downtick in US yields is justified, but this should not have dramatic market impact.

In the euro area, employment increased 0.1% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2024, showing that the labour market remains resilient despite weak growth. The picture seen last year appears to be repeating itself, with Spain recording strong employment growth at 1.0 % q/q and Germany stagnating at 0.0 % q/q. We forecast a small increase in the unemployment rate as employment growth stagnates and the labour force grows.

In Norway, the Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements released their report ahead of this year's central wage negotiations. Notably, annual wage growth in 2024 came in at 5.3 % and the committee expects inflation to drop to 2.5 % in 2025, which could limit the upside risk to Norges Bank's wage growth estimate for this year of 4.2 %. All in all, the expected rate cut in March is not at risk. We maintain our call for four cuts in 2025, as growth has been weaker than expected, oil investments are about to turn, and domestic inflation keeps falling.

Equities: US and European equities were little changed on Friday and sector performance tightly bunched. This was a well-deserved break for markets, after rallying >1.5% for the week. Risk on was visible on Friday too: Europe outperformed the US (9% ytd vs 4% in the US). Vix dropped below 15, which is the lowest since late January. Investors found financing in defensives, with health care and consumer staples the worst performing sector on Friday. All in all, risk-on continued in markets last week despite the higher inflation print, hawkish Fed speeches and dirty dealmaking in Ukraine. This goes in line with our view that as long as demand stays strong, equity investors will be happy. Futures are higher this morning but note that US markets are closed for holiday.

FI: The direction for global bond yields still seems very uncertain even though we have been pricing out rate cuts from the Federal Reserve since the autumn last year. However, if we look at the movement in 10Y US Treasury yields since the inauguration of Donald Trump there has been no clear direction with 10Y Treasuries trading with a yield between 4.4% to 4.6% based on signals from the Federal Reserve as well as key economic data such as last week's US inflation. However, there has been a clear path for the US 10Y swap spread, which has widened some 10bp since late January.

FX: The broad USD declined last week as markets unwound some of the stretched USD-bullish positioning tied to Trump's policy agenda, particularly on tariffs, where there has been plenty of rhetoric but little immediate implementation. The weaker USD, combined with progress in Ukraine peace talks, supported EUR/USD to just below 1.05. USD/JPY fell back into the 152-153 range amid declining US yields. Both AUD and NZD ended the week on a strong footing, supported by broadly positive risk sentiment. In the Scandies, SEK outperformed, pushing EUR/SEK below 11.25, while EUR/NOK held around 11.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6319; (P) 0.6344; (R1) 0.6376; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413, as a correction to fall from 0.6941. On the downside, however, break of 0.6234 support will suggest that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 0.6087 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6516) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4153; (P) 1.4178; (R1) 1.4204; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.4791 should target 1.3946 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4791 at 1.3942), as a correction to rise from 1.3418. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.4378 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0454; (P) 1.0484; (R1) 1.0521; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral as consolidation from 1.0176 is still extending. Stronger rebound might be seen but outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 holds. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. However, decisive break of 1.0572 will raise the chance of reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0817.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 (2024 high) at 1.0199. Sustained break there will solidify the case of medium term bearish trend reversal, and pave the way back to 0.9534. However, reversal from 1.0199 will argue that price actions from 1.1274 are merely a corrective pattern, and has already completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2539; (P) 1.2585; (R1) 1.2630; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for the moment. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609 will keep near term outlook bearish. Break of 1.2331 support will suggest that the rebound from 1.2099 has completed as a correction, and bring retest of 1.2099 low. However, firm break of 1.2609 will raise the chance of near term reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2923.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433 (2024 high), and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move. However, firm break of 1.2810 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.3433 high instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8954; (P) 0.9017; (R1) 0.9061; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral first as consolidation from 0.9200 is still extending. While deeper pull back might be seen, outlook will stay mildly bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8884 holds. On the upside, firm break of 0.9223 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained break of 0.8884 will indicate bearish reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8690 instead.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 0.9223 resistance will argue that whole down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) has completed with three waves down to 0.8332 (2023 low). Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.0146 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9223 will retain medium term bearishness for another decline through 0.8332 at a later stage.